NFL week 11 (nov 20)

[phil_abuster]

4-3 last week

colts -2.5 __even matchup, could go either way, this is a strong hunch

vikes -1.5 __ why this line on a solid 3-1 homie - waaay overdue for a win - is not -3.5 or -4 not sure but the 5-4 vikes r still a good team, esp. vs the 4-4-1 cards which have achieved their mediocrity w/ the benefit of 6 home games and only 3 away - all 3 being loser teams - and they lost 2 of those, by 15 @Buffalo and lost by 10 @Carolina, but did manage a road win at the 1-8 49ers. cards coming off an unimpressive 23-20 home win vs those same bottom-dwelling 49ers! not impressed, r u ??! meanwhile sure the vikes have lost 4 straight. they're a good team in a slump. but 3 of those were on the road (2 @ winning teams) and their lone home loss was in OT - also to a winning team. vikes r clearly the better team going in, and overdue. anything can happen of course but i see excellent line value here. injuries dont appear to b a significant factor

[phil_abuster]

normally i wouldnt even consider a woeful 0-10 team vs a decent team favored by 8.5 pts
but steelers limp in today banged up for this one and although they will win, yes, i dont think they cover in part cuz browns r due for a better game and flirting w/ a win
browns +8.5

[phil_abuster]

rams +1

[phil_abuster]

well, my luck just keeps on rolling
browns were losing late as i predicted but still within the +8.5 cover late in the game
late fumble on the goal line and steelers fall on it for an unearned td to blow my cover

then rams +1 r up 10-0 on miami w/ less than 5 mins to go!
they promptly allow not just one but 2 late tds and i lose my second cover.
a profitable 4-0 day turns into a loser 2-2 day

tonite at "mile and a half high stadium" in mexico i give daRaiduhs a solid edge!
but - on an oxygen-starved neutral field - which i think should have an "equalizing effect" i can see the texans keeping it close and plausibly winning. i like the line value of getting +6.5, so im betting on osweiler to lead the texans to a spread cover
both teams reasonably healthy

if U r also on the texans i sure wish U success!

[phil_abuster]

maybe bad news for bettors on oakland.....ALL 7 on "NFL Monday Night Countdown" picked daRaiduhs

[phil_abuster]

and my luck continues.....the texans - as we all just witnessed - DID SCORE A TD, fairly, as hopkins clearly did NOT step out-of-bounds - as wrongly whistled down, so not challengable....so of course they end up settling for a fieldgoal.
4 points taken away
and w/ my luck THAT will b the difference to cause another cover loss

[paco]

I think that 4 will be huge Phil unfortunately

[phil_abuster]

I think that 4 will be huge Phil unfortunately

im hoping the fact the entire MNF Countdown team were picking oakland will gimme some karma and effectively counteract my negative mojo w/ regard to bad luck.....either way i will feel good....i just poured my second DOUBLE

good luck to u this week

[phil_abuster]

so, he makes a first down, but they rule he didnt
so houston challenges the spot
replays show he made the line to gain. the announcers agree!!
seems clear
but, nope. they give the ball to oakland anyway
houston gets screwed for the second time on a critical play!
and sure enough, w/ that HUGE lucky break preventing a goahead score for houston - Oakland scores a td almost immediately to go ahead by 7 and my +6.5 cover is precarious at best.....sigh

[phil_abuster]

so, he makes a first down, but they rule he didnt
so houston challenges the spot
replays show he made the line to gain. the announcers agree!!
seems clear
but, nope. they give the ball to oakland anyway
houston gets screwed for the second time on a critical play!
and sure enough, w/ that HUGE lucky break preventing a goahead score for houston - Oakland scores a td almost immediately to go ahead by 7 and my +6.5 cover is precarious at best.....sigh

turkey day bets:
lions -1.5 __even matchup except vikings missing star wr Diggs and badly limping secondary
mn/det und 42.5 __dont see a high scoring affair here. only 38 in ot last game

[phil_abuster]

and the bad calls continue...
lions pick off a bradford pass to keep the score 7-0.
but a horrible pi was wrongfully pinned on Slay to extend the lucky vikings drive, uponwhich they score immediately, of course

[phil_abuster]

and the bad calls continue...
lions pick off a bradford pass to keep the score 7-0.
but a horrible pi was wrongfully pinned on Slay to extend the lucky vikings drive, uponwhich they score immediately, of course

over in the canadian league they allow challenges on pi calls
the nfl is considering the same, and they should
this wont extend the game since there would still be the SAME number of challenges allowed
had there been a challengable pi call on that bad call it would have been overturned
keep in mind touching a receiver is not illegal; only when it actually impedes him
clearly that was not the case, but......

[phil_abuster]

turkey day bets:
lions -1.5 __even matchup except vikings missing star wr Diggs and badly limping secondary
mn/det und 42.5 __dont see a high scoring affair here. only 38 in ot last game

added turkey day bets
redskins 1stQ +.5+100 __1st Q can easily go either way or tie, and 2 of those 3 is a winner!
wa/dal game un 52.5 __ my stats say about 48 pts, which still gives me a 4 pt cushion

[phil_abuster]

Originally Posted by phil_abuster

turkey day bets:
lions -1.5 __even matchup except vikings missing star wr Diggs and badly limping secondary
mn/det und 42.5 __dont see a high scoring affair here. only 38 in ot last game
added turkey day bets
redskins 1stQ +.5+100 __1st Q can easily go either way or tie, and 2 of those 3 is a winner!
wa/dal game un 52.5 __ my stats say about 48 pts, which still gives me a 4 pt cushion

Pit/indy und 50 __ my stats indicate about 48 pts here too, but w/o Luck at qb its logical to lower this by about 4-7 pts and that is my cushion for another under

[phil_abuster]

adding
steelers -3.5 -230 alt line