Terrible first play. Gotta try another on Turkey Day!
»» Cowboys PK
»» Cowboys PK
-
Comment -
»» Seahawks -3 +100
»» Broncos +2½Comment -
Nice to be on the other side of wild games for a change in the NFL.Comment -
»» Ravens +4½
»» Ravens/Browns Under 41½Comment -
Week 13
Value
+6.3 - Rams +6 vs Cardinals
+8.7 - Before Week 12
------
+5.9 - Vikings +1 vs Seahawks
+6.4 - Before Week 12
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+5.2 - Giants +1 vs Jets
+6.1 - Before Week 12
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+3.6 - Jaguars +2.5 at Titans
+4.7 - Before Week 12
------
+3.4 - Eagles +13 at Patriots
+3.0 - Before Week 12
------
+3.3 - Redskins -4 vs Cowboys
+3.2 - Before Week 12
------
+3.0 - Saints +6.5 vs Panthers
+3.5 - Before Week 12
------
+2.8 - Colts +7 at Steelers
+0.4 - Before Week 12
------
+2.7 - 49ers +7 at Bears
+3.3 - Before Week 12
------
+2.5 - Falcons +2 at Bucs
+2.3 - Before Week 12
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+1.5 - Bills -3 vs Texans
+3.2 - Before Week 12
+0.8 - Broncos -3.5 at Chargers
+2.1 - Before Week 12
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+0.9 - Lions +3 vs Packers
+0.9 - Before Week 12
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+0.4 - Chiefs -3 at Raiders
-0.2 - Before Week 12
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+?.? - Ravens +4.5 at Dolphins
+1.8 - Before Week 12
--------------------------------------
Power Ratings for YPP
This Last YPPR W/L
#01 - #01 - Patriots +5.3 10-1
#02 - #02 - Panthers +5.2 11-0
#03 - #03 - Bengals +4.4 9-2
#04 - #04 - Packers +4.1 7-4
#05 - #05 - Giants +3.3 5-6
#06 - #06 - Chiefs +3.0 6-5
#07 - #08 - Vikings +3.1 8-3
#08 - #09 - Cardinals +3.0 9-2
#09 - #06 - Steelers +1.5 6-5
#10 - #12 - Jets +1.2 6-5
#11 - #13 - Colts +1.2 6-5
#12 - #10 - Bills +0.8 5-6
#13 - #16 - Seahawks +0.7 6-5
#14 - #11 - Raiders +0.3 5-6
#15 - #14 - Broncos +0.1 9-2
#16 - #18 - Redskins -0.4 5-6
#17 - #16 - Falcons -0.7 6-5
#18 - #19 - Dolphins -0.7 4-7
#19 - #20 - Eagles -1.2 4-7
#20 - #24 - Texans -1.6 6-5
#21 - #15 - Rams -1.7 4-7
#22 - #21 - Ravens -1.9 4-7
#23 - #22 - Bears -2.2 5-6
#24 - #29 - Titans -2.8 2-9
#25 - #23 - Bucs -2.9 5-6
#26 - #25 - Jaguars -3.0 4-7
#27 - #27 - Lions -3.0 4-7
#28 - #25 - Saints -3.3 4-7
#29 - #28 - Browns -3.4 2-9
#30 - #30 - Cowboys -3.9 3-8
#31 - #32 - Chargers -4.1 3-8
#32 - #31 - 49ers -5.2 3-8
--------------------------------------Comment -
»» Vikings +110
»» Falcons +100
»» Saints +7Comment -
»» Raiders +3Comment -
WEEK 14
--> New Orleans +4.5
--> San Francisco +2
--> Denver -6.5
________________________
Season = 42-38 for +4.50 UnitsComment -
--> Steelers +2
--> Packers -6Comment -
10 point teaser
Falcons +19
Jets +1
Jags +10Comment -
--> Tampa Bay/St. Louis Under 41Comment -
--> Bears +5½
--> Jaguars -3
--> Giants +4½
--> Broncos +250Comment -
--> Packers -4
--> Bills -2
TEASER: Texans & Dolphins
TEASER: Chiefs & BengalsComment -
Best of luck on your plays todayComment -
--> Saints -3 +105Comment -
--> Chargers +5.5
--> Chargers/Raiders Under 46Comment -
We got a pretty meaningless divisional game tonight, with the only thing on the line for the Chargers is a better draft pick. They don't however have to win, just cover and that includes a backdoor cover. They could either come out flat after an emotional win last week in maybe thier last home game in San Diego, or on the other end of the spectrum, that momentum could carry over. The Raiders only possible motivation besides their pride is the chance to finish .500 by winning their last 2 games.
The Raiders have went 5-1 ATS L6 times they faced the Chargers and 10-3 L13, but they were probally dogs in all of them. The Raiders have only been Home favs of 5 or more 5 times since 2005. They have lost their last 3 Home games SU and ATS, meanwhile the Chargers are 4-0 L4 as Road dogs and 10-1 ATS since 2012 as a Road dog of 5 or more. The Chargers are also 6-2 SU L8 vs the Raiders and 19-5 SU L24. They are also 9-2 SU L11 in Oakland, but as I said earlier, they were almost always favored. The Raiders are just 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS since 2011 in Home Divisional games.
My math comes out to the Chargers +0.25 with about 42 points being scored. Last week my math model went 10-5-1 ATS.
It's not exactly the ideal spot for the Chargers on the Road in a short week after an emotional win just 5 days ago. But my model and trends support them and the fact the public is on the Home favorite in a PrimeTime game is enough to take a chance. If the Chargers protect the football, they can at least keep it close.Comment -
--------------------------------------
Redskins +3 at Eagles
- Model Projection = Redskins +0.5 at Eagles
- Value = +2.50 - Redskins
This is a big game with division title hopes on the line. The Eagles would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. The Redskins come in hot, as Cousins has won back to back games for the first time. I have avoided him after a win, until he proved he could win back to back games. It took him this long to finally do that, but I don't think I'm ready to back him as he tries for three in a row. The Redskins will be a popular pick and like Walter, I expect a big contrarian week, but then again, I've been expecting it for the last few weeks. It's also a divisional revenge spot for the Eagles after losing by 3 in Washington. The Eagles are 0-10 SUATS L10 at Home after a Home loss. And the Redskins have just one win on the Road this season, and just 3 in the last 3 seasons. It's not my favorite play, but I'll take the Eagles as a Prime Time contrarian play.
1 Units - Eagles -3
0 Units - Under 48
--------------------------------------
Panthers -7 at Falcons
- Model Projection = Panthers -7.22 at Falcons
- Value = +0.22 = Panthers
It seems the Falcons would rather talk some shit, than fly under the radar and try to surprise their undefeated opponent. I doubt that's gonna do anything other than keep the Panthers motivated. I expect the Falcons to play tough, given they got smashed last time, but I doubt it will be enough to win. Thier defense may be able to play better, but I still think Matt Ryan will struggle against the Panther zone defense. The Panthers need one more win to clinch Home Field in the playoffs. The Falcons only chance to make the playoffs is to win out and hope the Vikings lose out. The Panthers will most likely be without Jonathan Stewart. Cam is in a zone right now, and the defense is playing fired up, but I could also see the Panthers starting to worry about protecting players health with just two games left. They could have a 2 score lead late and rest some players, leaving room for a backdoor cover. The Panthers are 5-2 SUATS since 2012 vs the Falcons, with the Under covering in 5 str8. With the amount of volume on the Panthers with no line movement, makes me want to take a chance on the Falcons.
1 Units - Falcons +7
0 Units - Under 47.5
--------------------------------------
Bills -6 vs Cowboys
- Model Projection = Bills -6.03 vs Cowboys
- Value = +0.03 - Bills
I don't see any scenario where the Cowboys win this game, but I don't think I can trust this Bills being favored by that much over anyone. The Cowboys are probally playing for a better draft pick at this point. Tyrod Taylor has surprisingly good numbers with a 101.8 QB Ratings and 20 TD's and only 5 INT's, and the Cowboys don't get many INT's. Dallas also only has 2 Forced Fumbles all year, easily the lowest in the NFL. Dallas does have a pretty good pass defense, and the Bills are without McCoy at RB. Dallas should have some success running the ball if they can complete a few passes here and there, but I expect Moore to throw a INT or two.
The Bills are 0-3 SUATS vs the NFC this season, losing to all 3 other NFC East teams.
The Under has hit in 7 of the last 8 times the Bills faced an NFC team.
The Under has also hit in 6 of the last 7 times the Cowboys faced an AFC team.
The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS as an Road dog vs an AFC team. The Bills are 0-4 ATS L4 times they played an NFC team as a Home favorite.
This might be a good teaser play on the Bills, or ML parlay, but I will just lean slightly with the Bills.
0 Units - Bills -6
0 Units - Under 42.5
--------------------------------------
Lions -10 vs 49ers
- Model Projection = Lions -5.89 vs 49ers
- Value = +4.11 - 49ers
I expected this spread to be smaller, even though the 49ers are terrible, that seems like a lot for a not so good Lions team to be giving to anyone. Especially considering the Lions have only beaten the 49ers once in thier last 14 meetings and are 3-11 ATS. My math has the Lions by a little less than 6 and that seems more realistic that the -10. The 49ers offense is dead last in the league in Points Scored, but the Lions Defense is 27th in Point Allowed. The Lions don't have many INT's but are very good at forcing fumbles with 16, tied for 4th in the NFL. The 49ers on the other hand have just 4 Forced Fumbles on the season, ranked next to last. The Lions have no run game, so if the 49ers can contain the passing attack, they can keep it close. The Lions are better than the 49ers on both sides, but that's a lot of points. I'll take the 49ers, as my math shows value on them and they have dominated the series.
1 Units - 49ers +10
0 Units - Under 43
--------------------------------------
Texans -5 at Titans
- Model Projection = Texans -2.47 at Titans
- Value = +2.53 - Titans
The Texans still need to clinch the division, and the Titans are in position for the #1 pick. They could still lose SU but cover the ATS, just like I mentioned in the Chargers game. The Texans have beaten the Titans 6 out of the last 7 meetings but they are only 1-8 ATS L9. The line has only been released at a few of the books as of this writing, but early volume shows 55% on the Titans. I expect that to change though, maybe not enough to worry if you do like the Texans. I can't go against the Texans in this spot and I would bet on just about anyone over the Titans. I think the Texans win SU and could be a good teaser to play. I'm still not sure ATS, but it's either the Texans or nothing. The Texans are better than the Titans, but it's the spot they are in that has me considering them. The volume has already changed a lot on the Texans, went from 55% to 75% in a couple of hours. Therefore, I don't think I will play on the Texans, but I still lean with them.
Weeden will start for the Texans, that just reaffirms my decision to pass.
0 Units - Texans -5
0 Units - Under 42
--------------------------------------
Dolphins -2.5 vs Colts
- Model Projection = Dolphins -6.62 vs Colts
- Value = +4.12 - Dolphins
The Colts do have a slim chance at winning the division, but both these teams have been terrible. It's been a dissappointing season for both these teams, but the Dolphins could be looking ahead to the draft already. If the Colts can give Hasslebeck some time, he will carve up that Dolphin defense. That is the key to the game and that depends on how motivated the Dolphins front 7 will be. My math model shows a lot of value on the Dolphins, but they are hard to trust, especially in this spot. I will side with the Dolphins and hope Campbells challenge to the team leaders motivates them.
1 Units - Dolphins -2.5
0 Units - Over 43.5
--------------------------------------
Chiefs -10.5 vs Browns
- Model Projection = Chiefs -14.14 vs Browns
- Value = +3.64 - Chiefs
I like the Chiefs in this one, as they are still alive for the division and at least a Wild Card. I do want the Chiefs to lose, but that is highly unlikely. I think Manziel is a good fade option, and my math supports the Chiefs. It's the volume on the Chiefs as a double digit favorite that scares me. The line as in fact dropped to -10.5 from -12 showing some RLM. If it weren't for the Chiefs being so heavily backed and showing some RLM, I would of taken them.
0 Units - Chiefs -10.5
0 Units - Over 42.5
--------------------------------------
Jets +3 vs Patriots
- Model Projection = Jets +0.72 vs Patriots
- Value = +2.28 - Jets
Now we are getting to some games, that I'm interested in. Not so much in value or matchups as it is personal for me. I played on the Broncos ML last week vs the Steelers, even though I wanted the Steelers to win. So if the Steelers lost, I would at least win a +250 play. When it comes down to it, I don't mind losing a little money, if it helps the Steelers. I consider it almost as a hedge bet and a win/win situation for me. If the Jets lose, the Steelers will for sure be in the playoffs. Having said that, there are some angles that make me think the Jets are the right side. One of those things is it's a must win for the Jets, yes the Patriots want Home Field and aren't just going to lay down, especially to the Jets with all the deflate gate back stories. Another thing is the suspect line, there is almost 80% volume on the Patriots, but the line hasn't budged. This has trap written all over it for the square betters. The Jets are 5-0 ATS L5 vs the Patriots and almost beat them earlier this year. But, they are just 1-8 SU L9 vs the Patriots. This is a play on the Jets for me, my math, trends, and line analyzation agrees with my personal reasons. Maybe, I will get lucky and they will lose but still cover.
2 Units - Jets +3
0 Units - Over 45.5
--------------------------------------
Buccaneers -3 vs Bears
- Model Projection = Buccaneers +0.49 vs Bears
- Value = +3.51 - Bears
My thought is the Bucs defense momentum is running out and they are reverting to their early season form. The Bucs are 3-7 SU L10 vs the Bears and now are favored. My math model favors the Bears in this one. The action seems split when comparing the spread vs ML volume. I'm going with the Bears here.
1 Units - Bears +3
0 Units - Over 45.5
--------------------------------------
Steelers -10 at Ravens
- Model Projection = Steelers -12.43 at Ravens
- Value = +2.43 - Steelers
Wow, what a contrast in fortune this year between these teams, and I'm loving it. The Ravens would of been favored by -2 at the begining of the season and now are double digit dogs. The Steelers need to win to control their own destiny and lock up a playoff berth with a Jets loss. I don't think the Ravens will lie down against their hated rivals but they just don't have the talent to win. I am for sure not playing on the Steelers this week, they are too heavily backed by the public. I'm interested in the Ravens as a 80/20 contrarian system play involving a dog of 7 or more. The Steelers are out for revenge and a playoff spot, they won't lose, but that is a lot of points and room for a backdoor cover. This is either a Ravens play for me. If this stays at 80/20, I might add a unit.
1 Units - Ravens +10
0 Units - Under 47
--------------------------------------
Jaguars +3.5 at Saints
- Model Projection = Jaguars +1.74 at Saints
- Value = +1.76 - Jaguars
I love the Jags offense vs that Saints defense. The Saints starting QB is still undecided at this point, if you want the Jaguars, get them before it drops below 3. My math shows value on the Jaguars and that's the way I will go.
1 Units - Jaguars +3.5
0 Units - Over 51.5
--------------------------------------
Packers +4.5 at Cardinals
- Model Projection = Packers +3 at Cardinals
- Value = +1.50 - Packers
This kind of reminds me of when the Packers took on the Vikings in a statement game. But, I think the Cardinals are also looking to make a statement and it should be a good game. Green Bay still needs to clinch their division and the Cardinals have the #2 seed pretty much wrapped up. I have to give a slight motivational edge to the Packers. McCarthy has taken back control of the play calling and it has seemed to help. For me the problem isn't thier offense, it's the inconsistancy of their defense. They are taking on a Cardinals team who is strong on both sides of the ball. But, they did lose the honey badger, so we will see how much that affects them. Carson Palmer is known to float a couple of balls, so the key for the Packers will be the pass defense. I think 4.5 points is pretty generous and I'll take the Packers, they are 6-2 SU L8 vs the Cardinals.
1 Units - Packers +4.5
0 Units - Under 50.5
----------------------------------------
Seahawks -12.5 vs Rams
- Model Projection = Seahawks -13.95 vs Rams
- Value = +1.45 - Seahawks
Seahawks are on fire and they are out for revenge against the Rams for an earlier season loss. But, they always seem to have trouble vs the Rams lately and nearly a 2 TD favorite seems too high. I think thier pass rush is the type that gives Russell Wilson problems and the Seahawks can't rely on their run game. However, I have no interest in taking the Rams right now. I don't think I would even consider this game in a teaser.
0 Units - Seahawks -12.5
0 Units - Under 41
--------------------------------------
Vikings -6.5 vs Giants
- Model Projection = Vikings -5.02 vs Giants
- Value = +1.48 - Giants
Both of these teams are fighting for thier division, but the Vikings are looking good to get a wild card spot. The question here is how many points in Odel Beckham worth? I've had problems going against the Vikings this year, so It will be hard for me to go against them. But there is too much volume on them, so I will prolly pass. The fact it's a Prime Time game, defintley makes this a pass for now. Slight lean on the Giants, for contrarian sake only.
0 Units - Giants +6.5
0 Units - Over 44.5
--------------------------------------
Bengals +3.5 at Broncos
- Model Projection = Bengals -0.30 at Broncos
- Value = +3.80 - Bengals
Both of these teams are in the driver seat to win their division, but niether are the same team they were in the middle of the season. The Bronco defense should be motivated after getting thrashed in the 2nd half vs the Steelers. I expect this to be a low scoring, close game. I was dissappointed that spread wasn't higher, because I want to take the Bengals. Similar to my Jets write up, I want the Bengals to lose. It might not be 80/20 but the Broncos have over 70% of the volume in a Prime Time game. I'm going to play the Bengals.
2 Units - Bengals +3.5
0 Units - Under 40
--------------------------------------Comment -
TY Bengals, 3-0 in my multi unit picks, 12-4 in my Totals picks.
Season = 56-52 +6.20Comment -
Jets -2.5 at Bills 41.5
Raw Projection = 23.38 - 19.47 = -3.91
Adjusted Projection = Jets -0.31 at Bills
Value = +2.69 - Bills
Total = 42.85
SUNDAY - This is a big game for the Jets, if they win, they are in.
Of course, for personal reasons, I want the Jets to lose.
They have been good ATS inside their Division at 6-1 ATS L7 and look for get revenge for an earlier season loss to the Bills at Home by 5 on Thursday Night Football, in a game that wasn't even that close.
Fitzpatrick was just 15 of 34 in that game, but Ivory was able to have a good game, despite them trailing most of the game.
McCoy also had a good game, but is status is uncertain with a MCL sprain, and I don't expect him to play.
The Bills were unimpressive again, even in their win over Dallas.
I don't know what motivation they will have for this game, maybe a chance at a 8-8 season.
I'm sure Ryan will try to get them motivated, as he will want to sweep his old team this season.
I don't know how much the players will buy into or even if it will matter, because they have been struggling.
On the other side, the Jets have all kinds of motivation.
The Bills have owned the series lately, but most of it was with Ryan on the other sideline.
The Bills have won and covered 4 straight vs the Jets and completely smashed them in 3 of them.
The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS vs thier Division this season, 1-1 at Home.
They have won and covered thier last 3 games at Home.
The Bills and Rex Ryan would love to knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
But wanting and doing are two different things, didn't they want to make the playoffs this year?
MONDAY - The number has been released and it's right at 3 as expected.
Looks like the public is all over the Jets.
WEDNESDAY - I'm finding it hard to play on the Jets this week, I really want them to lose.
I don't want to bet on the Bills and take a hit to the heart and bank roll.
I'm still giving the Jets some thought, because I expect them to win in this spot.
I'm still not convinced this week won't be another contrarian week.
One week, won't make up for a bad month, and a lot of favorites have been winning in the bowl games.
If this wasn't such a public bet, 75% of the volume, I would lock in the Jets.
There is no line movement yet, so I don't think the Sharps have made up thier mind either, or they are staying clear.
I ran the numbers last night and came up with the Jets -0.31.
So despite what I thought was the right line, it seems the spot is being accounted for.
SATURDAY - The public is still on the Jets but the sharps are on the Bills causing some RLM.
I hope they are right, I just don't see it happening. The value is with the Bills though.
0 Units = Bills +3
0 Units = Over 41.5
--------------------------------
Bucs +10.5 at Panthers 46
Model Projection = 20.23 - 28.06 = +7.83
Adjusted Projection = Bucs +10.93 at Panthers
Value = +0.43 - Panthers
Total = 48.29
SUNDAY - The Panthers need a win to get Home Field in the NFC. I think they try to head into thier bye on a good game.
Of course, with so many points and a chance they will rest some players is they go up big, leaves open a backdoor possibility.
The Bucs are now guaranteed to have a losing season, so I'm not sure what motivation they will have.
One thing that does come to mind is how well Lovie Smith does as DD dogs vs his division.
I played on that angle earlier in the season and got a win, but I'm not interested in the Bucs at this point.
I expect this to be another easy win for the Panthers, they won by 14 in Tampa earlier in the season.
They have covered in 4 out of the last 5 vs the Bucs.
MONDAY - The was released at about what I expected at 10.5.
Wednesday - The action seem pretty split here, with the line moving higher on some books.
The Panthers care about getting Home Field and winning.
There is too many possibilities for a back door cover here with such a big spread.
And Lovie Smith is usually good in these roles.
I am undecided on this game as of now. My model has the Panthers by 10.93
The Panthers have a hige YPP advantage on both sides on the ball.
Saturday - The Panthers are banged up right now with Ginn and Stewart out.
I will lean with all those points due to the injuries mostly.
0 Units - Bucs +10.5
0 Units = Over 46
--------------------------------
Patriots -9 at Dolphins 46.5
Model Projection = 27.89 - 17.84 = -10.05
Adjusted Projection = Patriots -8.45 at Dolphins
Value = +0.55 - Dolphins
Total - 45.73
SUNDAY - The Patriots injuries have finally been catching up to them over the last month.
They can clinch a bye with a Bronco loss, but are in a battle for the #1 seed.
Even with the injuries Brady should be able to throw all over that Dolphins defense.
The only thing of importance to the Dolphins, besides pride, and that's if they have any, is a top 5 draft pick.
The Patriots have won the last 2 meetings by 29 and 28 points and are 7-3 ATS L10.
The Patriots will want to go into the playoffs on a good note, after a rough month.
I expect a blowout here, but the rest of the public prolly will be too.
I won't bet on the Dolphins, I'll see what the line is and it's movement.
MONDAY - I was hoping for around 7, but 9 is the number with the public on the Patriots early.
TUESDAY - Line moved to -10.
WEDNESDAY - THe Patriots are a heavy public favorite and it will be hard for me to play on them.
They are still playing for the #1 seed and can get that with a win.
The Dolphins have major scheme issues in thier pass defense and Brady should have a field day.
My model has the Patriots by 8.45, I wanted around 7, but it's now moved up to double digits.
The Patriots have a huge YPP advantage on both sides on the ball.
Saturday - The line has gone back down under 10, but the 71% volume on the Patriots.
Everything I heard is that BB wants to end strong in this last game and will not be taking it lightly.
They have practiced in full pads on Wednesday & Thursday.
They can't be feeling good about the last month.
0 Units = Patriots -9
0 Units = Under 46.5
--------------------------------
Ravens +9.5 at Bengals 41.5
Model Projection = 18.01 - 24.56 = +6.55
Adjusted Projection = Ravens +9.55 at Bengals
Value = +0.05 - Bengals
Total = 42.57
SUNDAY - If the Bengals win thier last 2 games, I believe they will be the #1 seed overall.
Even if they lose Monday, they will still be playing for a 1st round bye.
And, an extra week off is needed for Dalton to have more time to heal.
The Ravens just played thier game of the year and could be flat.
The Bengals have won and covered in the last 4 meetings, but these teams usually play close.
McCarron should find it rather easy after facing the Bronco defense last week, he now goes against the injury decimated Ravens defense.
I don't play on a lot of DD favorites, so I will see what the line is.
MONDAY - This number is a little lower than expected. There is prolly some over reaction due to the Ravens winnning and the Bengals clinching.
The public seems to love the Ravens early.
WEDNESDAY = The volume has came down on the Ravens and is 44% now.
The line has moved from 7 to 9 and could go higher.
The Bengals are playing for an important possible 1st round bye.
The Ravens are ready to put this season behind them.
My model has the Bengals by 9.55.
The Bengals have a huge YPP advantage on both sides on the ball.
Saturday - The line went up another half point to 9.5.
5 Dimes originally opened up at 7, I'm not sure if sharps or their MNF performance had anything to do with it.
I do like the Bengals in this spot.
0 Units = Bengals -9.5
0 Units = Over 41.5
--------------------------------
Saints +6 at Falcons 52.5
Model Projection = 24.70 - 23.45 = -1.25
Adjusted Projection = Saints +2.75 at Falcons
Value = +3.25 - Saints
Total = 48.15
SUNDAY - Depending on if the Vikings lose Sunday night, the Falcons may still be alive.
They need 2 Viking losses and a win in thier last game.
If they are still playing for a playoff spot, I like thier chances to cover.
Especially if the Falcons defense can play like they did vs the Panthers.
They will also be looking to revenge and earlier season loss to the Saints by 10 in week 6.
The Falcons are 4-2 ATS L6 vs the Saints.
I lean towards the Falcons right now, I do expect the line to be less than 7, but more than 3.
I will see how the Vikings do tonight, to see if the Falcons have anything to play for, besides a winning season.
MONDAY - I thought the line would be higher, but I like it. Prolly due to the Falcons being eliminated after the Vikings won last night.
WEDNESDAY - The action is about split and so is my opinion on this game.
I would of liked the Falcons if they weren't eliminated by the Vikings win.
The only thing left worth playing for them, besides pride, is a chance to finish with a winning record at 9-7.
This could be a let down spot for them after just defeating the Panthers.
The Saints will be trying to avoid a double digit loss season.
My model has the Falcons by 2.75.
The Saints have a YPP edge in offense, while the Falcons have an edge in defense.
SATURDAY - The line is moving up and is now 5.5 with one 6 being offered at 5 Dimes.
The volume on the spread is even, but 70% on the Saints ML.
I think that is too many points right now. I'll pass, but lean with the Saints.
0 Units = Saints +6
0 Units = Under 52.5
--------------------------------
Jaguars +6.5 at Texans 45.5
Model Projection = 21.19 - 23.02 = +1.83
Adjusted Projection = Jaguars +6.13 at Texans
Value = +0.37 - Texans
Total = 44.21
SUNDAY - The Texans still need to win or a Colts loss to win the division.
The Jaguars were guaranteed another losing season and have nothing left to play for.
Not sure if Hoyer will be ready or if it will be Weeden again. I'm hoping it's not Weeden.
For the Jaguars, Bortles is too turnover prone for me to take them anymore.
The Texans won by 11 in Jacksonville in Week 6, but needed a 21 point 4th Quarter.
MONDAY - The line still hasn't been released. I think it will be around 7 or a little less.
TUESDAY - A couple of places now have the line listed as 5.5.
WEDNESDAY - I finished running the numbers and came up with the Texans -6.13.
No surprise that the Jags have a YPP edge in offense and the Texans have the edge in defense.
SATURDAY - The line has moved to 6.5, with 71% of the volume on the Texans.
I can't put money on the Bortles, until he fixes the turnover problem.
0 Units = Jaguars +6.5
0 Units = Under 45.5
--------------------------------
Steelers -11 at Browns 46.5
Model Projection = 25.85 - 19.08 = -6.77
Adjusted Projection = Steelers -7.67 at Browns
Value = +3.23 - Browns
Total = 44.93
SUNDAY - Wow, Steelers WTF? I took the Ravens to cover, but damn, how they going lose in that spot!
I'm am tired of Tomlin, what a fool, he has cost the Steelers in multiple games this year.
All season long he is going for it when they have a good FG kicker or going for 2 points when up by 2, instead of making it a 3 point lead with a XP.
He doesn't call timeouts on defense, electing to waste 40 seconds, and instead saves his timeout for the Offense, when it takes like 10 seconds to spike the ball.
He always says he coaches with his gut, when he should use his brain once in awhile.
He is the anti Belichick. He was handed one of the best jobs in sports because how would it look for the team who created the Rooney Rule, not hire a black coach.
I'm not being racist, that's just the reality of it.
It's too bad they don't fire head coaches, because he should be gone, and take the GM Colbert with him.
Having said that, I'm sure the players are also pissed about losing the the Ravens.
I expect them to take it out on the Browns and hope for a Jets loss to the Bills.
I don't know if the crowd will be into or not, at this point the are prolly rooting for a loss and the #1 pick.
Manziel didn't do too bad against them earlier this year, but they still lost 30-9.
But I imagine that the Steelers will be better against him after having some experience against him.
The Steelers will also have the advantage of treating this game almost like a Home game.
It's only about an hour drive from Pittsburgh to Cleveland.
I'm sure the Browns would love to do their part in helping the Steelers miss the Playoffs.
The Steelers will give the Browns their annual beatdown in the last week of the regular season, especially in this spot.
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be at 10.
WEDNESDAY - It looks like Davis will start at QB for the Browns, after Manziel got busted again in another video.
The line has moved up a point to 11 as a result, and I don't think it's going to matter.
I see the Steelers as taking out some frustration on thier long time rival.
The Steelers have a huge YPP advantage on both sides on the ball.
SATURDAY - The lines on the favorites all seem to be moving higher this week.
I really wanted to take the Steelers, but it's now 80/20.
0 Units = Steelers -10
0 Units = Under 46.5
--------------------------------
Raiders +7 at Chiefs 43.5
Model Projection = 19.11 - 23.04 = +3.93
Adjusted Projection = Raiders +5.93 at Chiefs
Value = +1.07 - Raiders
Total = 42.15
SUNDAY - Depending on if the Broncos lose or not, the Chiefs could still be alive to win thier division.
It's a rival game and the Raiders can finish 8-8 with a win, so I expect them to have some motivation.
If the Broncos do lose, the crowd should be rowdy with a chance at the division.
The Chiefs trailed the Raiders after 3 quarters in thier first meeting, but then scored 20 unanswered in the 4th to win by 6.
The Chiefs are 4-1 SUATS L5 vs the Raiders, the last 4 have went Over the total.
The Chiefs are now the hottest team in the NFL, even if they didn't exactly dominate the Browns.
They should find it easier this week against more of a pocket pass in Carr.
They were getting wore out from Manziel running around all game.
Therefore, they should be able to get some pressure and force Carr into some mistakes.
This will be the last game for Woodson, that could bring some emotion to the Raiders.
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be at 7.
WEDNESDAY - My model has the Chiefs by 5.93. I guess the Chiefs still have a shot to win the division, though it's unlikely Denver loses.
They play at the same time, so they could be score board watching and if it doesn't look good, they might rest some players in the 2nd half.
Too many unknowns for me.
The offensive YPP numbers are close, but the Chiefs hold a big advantage on defense.
SATURDAY - Split action, line not really moving, a little juice on -7.
0 Units = Chiefs -7
0 Units = Under 43.5
--------------------------------
Titans +7 at Colts ??
Model Projection = 19.27 - 21.08 = +1.81
Adjusted Projection = Titans +6.51 at Colts
Value = +0.49 - Titans
Total = 40.35
SUNDAY - The Titans are prolly the worst team in football and are battling with the Browns foe the #1 pick.
The Colts need a win and a Texans loss.
The Colts have won 8 in a row and 13/14 vs the Titans, and are 6-2 ATS L8, but the sitations were a lot different.
And, they did fail to cover in thier previous meeting this season vs the Titans.
They had to come back and outscore the Titans 21-6 in the 4th Q to win by 2.
I don't trust either of these teams, the Colts have more motivation to win, but thier QB situation is bad.
TUESDAY - The line still hasn't been released. I think it will be around 7
WEDNESDAY - Although, either team don't have good YPP numbers on either side of the ball,
the Colts have the offensive edge and the Titans the edge on defense.
SATURDAY - Still no line, I guess because they don't know which former grocery bagger the Colts are going to start at QB.
0 Units = Colts -?
0 Units = Under ?
--------------------------------
Redskins +4 at Cowboys 39.5
Model Projection = 24.53 - 17.56 = -6.97
Adjusted Projection = Redskins -3.37 at Cowboys
Value = +7.37 - Cowboys
Total = 42.09
TUESDAY - The line still hasn't been released. I think it will be around 7 or a little less.
WEDNESDAY - The Redskins are locked into the 4th seed.
Besides it being a rivarly game, I don't know why the Redskins would risk injury.
That would be nice if the Cowboys weren't contending for a top 5 pick.
I imagine a low scoring game with neither team really caring too much.
The Redskins might not want to risk injury, but I'm sure they would like to go into the playoffs on a streak.
I'm not sure how these circumstances are going to affect the line.
I expected it to be a little shy of 7, but I ran the numbers last night and they have the Redskins -3.37.
The Redskins have a huge YPP edge on offense and the defenses are close, with a slight edge to the Cowboys.
There seems like too many unknowns in this game.
I'll wait and see what the line is and what it does.
The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS L8 at Home vs the Redskins.
SATURDAY - Wow, the Redskins getting 4 points?
Either the books know that Gruden will be resting some players, even if they start,
or the books are just throwing out a decoy out there to make the sharps stay away.
Either way, that's fishy. I will pass., the books prolly know something.
0 Units = Cowboys -4
0 Units = Over 39.5
--------------------------------
Lions -1 at Bears 45
Model Projection = 25.25 - 22.21 = -3.04
Adjusted Projection = Lions -1.74 at Bears
Value = +0.74 - Lions
Total = 47.46
MONDAY - The line opened a little less than I expected.
WEDNESDAY - I guess the only thing that this game means is the loser will finish in last place in the division.
It's rare enough that Cutler will be motivated, but it's especially suspect in a meaningless last game of the season.
The Bears are just 1-6 SUATS at Home this season and 8-22-1 since 2011, but the Lions aren't exactly a good road team.
Jefferies and Forte could already have one foot out of the door.
The Lions have played a lot better over the 2nd half of the season and are on a 2 game win streak.
Jim Caldwell's job is less secure that John Fox's.
Stafford has 14 TDs and only 1 INT his last 6 games.
My model actually the Lions winning SU at -1.74.
The Lions have better YPP numbers on both sides of the ball.
The Lions have beat the Bears 5 str8 times.
The Lions are a play for me this week, in what appears to be a week of slim pickings.
SATURDAY - The Bears will be without Jefferies. The line has moved from Detroit +1 to -1
1 Units = Lions +1
0 Units = Under 45
--------------------------------
Eagles +5.5 at Giants 51
Model Projection = 25.97 - 28.34 = +2.37
Adjusted Projection = Eagles +5.37 at Giants
Value = +0.13 - Eagles
Total = 54.31
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be at 3.
WEDNESDAY - The first thing that comes to mind in NFC East games is that the Home team has struggled.
I will need to check up on later this week, to see for certain.
The Eagles finally fired Chip Kelly and sometimes that brings a spark to a team.
But, I don't know how much is going to be able to be changed in a few days.
They still have bad players and a bad system and I don't see either changing in one week.
THe Giants get Odel Beckham back and I can see him going out with a bang.
Both of these defenses can give up a lot of points, but the Giants have the better Offense.
My model has the Eagles +5.37, so it shows value on the Home team.
Both defenses are bad in YPP numbers, but the Giants have the edge on offense.
The Giants have lost the last 3 vs the Eagles and 12 of last 15.
SATURDAY - The line has went up to 5.5 and there is no value on the Eagles, but they are a contrarian play.
I just don't trust them enough.
0 Units = Eagles +5.5
0 Units = Over 51
--------------------------------
Vikings +3 at Packers 45.5
Model Projection = 24.44 - 21.31 = -3.13
Adjusted Projection = Vikings +1.77 at Packers
Value = +1.23 - Vikings
Total = 45.75
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be at 3.
WEDNESDAY - This is an important game for both teams with the Division title and a home playoff game on the line.
The Packers got the best of them in Minnesota, but they were the more motivated team at that point.
I expect the Vikings to match the Packers intensity better this time around.
My model shows some value on the Vikings at +1.77. at Home. I am undecided right now.
The YPP numbers are similar, with a slight edge on offense for the Vikings and a slight edge on defense for the Packers.
The Packers are 10-1-1 SU L12 vs the Vikings, including a 30-13 win this season.
0 Units = Packers -3
0 Units = Over 45.5
--------------------------------
Chargers +10 at Broncos 41.5
Model Projection = 20.35 - 20.22 = -0.13
Adjusted Projection = Chargers +4.27 at Broncos
Value = +5.23 - Chargers
Total = 40.57
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be at 7.
TUESDAY - The line has now moved to -8.5.
WEDNESDAY - I'm guessing the line moved up due to the Broncos improved chance at getting a first round bye after beating the Bengals.
And if they lose and the Chiefs win, they lose the division.
The Chargers are contending for a top 5 pick. I would think for a team that is about to move, maybe they want to get a nice shiny top pick to bring with them to their new home.
The question is whether or not the Broncos can cover such a big spread vs a sometimes unpredicatble division opponent, in the Chargers.
Nothing is jumping out enough for me to lay that many points and the Chargers are always a risk.
The Chargers have had 10 days of rest. My model has Denver by 4.27.
No surprise the Broncos have better YPP numbers on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos have won the L3 by doudle digits vs the Chargers, including a 17-3 win this season.
SATURDAY - The line has moved a point to 9.5, with some 10's and the volume about split.
That could indicate that the sharp money is on Denver.
I wish I would of took the Broncos when it opened at -7.
0 Units = Broncos +10
0 Units = Under 41.5
--------------------------------
Rams -3 at 49ers 38
Model Projection = 23.22 - 16.54 = -6.68
Adjusted Projection = Rams -2.88 at 49ers
Value = +0.12 - 49ers
Total = 39.76
MONDAY - The line opened right where I expected it to be.
WEDNESDAY - The 49ers are terrible on both sides of the ball.
They are contending for a top 5 draft pick.
The O/U on this game should be about 30.
The Rams can at least pound the rock and play defense.
The Rams have a huge YPP advantage on both sides on the ball.
The Rams have won the last 2 vs the 49ers, including a 27-6 win this season.
SATURDAY - The sharps seem to like the 49ers for some reason. I don't see it.
However, I will prolly pass.
0 Units - Rams -3
0 Units - Under 38
--------------------------------
Seahawks +6.5 at Cardinals 47
Model Projection = 21.35 - 23.20 = +1.85
Adjusted Projection = Seahawks +3.55 at Cardinals
Value = +2.95 - Seahawks
Total = 44.55
SUNDAY - This game prolly means more to the Seahawks.
The Panthers will most likely get the #1 seed by beating the Bucs.
The Cardinals may not want to risk a major injury in the last game.
If the Panthers played a better team or didn't play at the same time, Arians might of wanted to risk it.
The Seahawks might want to try for the 5th seed and a chance to play the Redskins.
I believe if they win and the Vikings lose, that will happen.
But, the Vikings don't play until the night game.
The Cardinals are 4-7 SUATS L11 vs the Seahawks, but won 39-32 in Seattle this season.
MONDAY - The line opened at a little less than I expected at 4.
TUESDAY - The line now has moved from 4 to what I was expecting at 7.
I think the line went up due to the Vikings winning and now Seattle is locked into the 6th seed.
WEDNESDAY - This will prolly ending up being a meaningless game.
THe Panthers will most likely win and lock up Home Field and the Cardinals already have a 1st round bye.
The Seahawks have nothing to gain in this game, so why risk injury.
This could be a potential playoff matchup, so I doubt either team is going to show the other one much.
This has the making of a low scoring game if both these teams rest players.
Some players may start the game, but how long will they play.
Pete Carroll said they are treating it like a championship game.
The Cardinals have about a 2 yd YPP edge on offense, while the Seahawks have about a 2 yd edge on defense.
I'm siding with value in this one, despite the unknowns. A 1st H bet may be better.
1 Units = Seahawks +7
0 Units = Under 47
--------------------------------Comment -
Im going with the Packers tonight -3.Comment -
Last week my model was 12-4 in Total picks. This week it's 11-4 and shows value on the Over in the Packers game.Comment -
Last Week
13-3 Value
11-5 Totals
2-1 Personal Plays
5-8 Personal Leans
Personal Plays Regular Season = 58-53 for +7.10 Units
____________________________
Texans +3 vs Chiefs
Raw Projection = 16.50 - 17.44 = +0.94 33.94
Adjusted Projection = Chiefs -0.24
Projected Value = +2.76 - Texans +3 vs Chiefs
Total = Under 40 (33.94)
_____________________________
Steelers -2.5 at Bengals
Raw Projection = 21.42 - 22.25 = +0.83 43.67
Adjusted Projection = Steelers +2.33
Projected Value = +4.83 - Bengals +2.5 vs Steelers
Total = Under 46.5 (43.67)
_____________________________
Seahawks -5.5 at Vikings
Raw Projection = 21.71 - 20.81 = -0.90 42.52
Adjusted Projection = Seahawks +0.40
Projected Value = +5.9 - Vikings +5.5 vs Seahawks
Total = Over 41 (42.52)
_____________________________
Packers +1 at Redskins
Raw Projection = 22.14 - 25.70 = +3.56 47.84
Adjusted Projection = Packers +5.06
Projected Value = +4.06 - Redskins vs Packers
Total = Over 45 (47.84)
_____________________________Comment -
Comment -
Home Field in Wild Card Round
2013-2014 = 4-4 SU & 2-4-2 ATS
2011-2012 = 7-1 SUATS
39-38-4 ATS L81
Home Field in Divisional Round
2013-2014 = 8-2 SU & 2-6 ATS
2011-2012 = 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS
24-32 ATS L56
Home Field in Championship
2013-2014 = 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
2011-2012 = 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS
15-14-1 ATS L30Comment -
--> Texans +3Comment -
SATURDAY 1/16
--> Patriots -5
--> Over 44
--> Cardinals -7
--> Under 49.5
___________________
Regular Season = 58-53 for +7.10 Units
Playoffs = 0-1 for -1.10 UnitsComment -
SUNDAY 1/17
--> Seahawks +3 -125
--> Under 44
--> Steelers 7.5
--> Over 41
________________________
Playoffs = 3-2 for +.80 UnitsComment
