NFL Plays: 2015 by FUqer

**FUqer** · 10-07-15, 10:53 AM

Since 2010 teams that have won 4 in a row are just 11-20-2 ATS when playing at home their next game and 24-31-0 ATS on the road. 35-51-2 ATS overall.
( @Bengals, @ Falcons, @ Packers, Broncos, Panthers )

Since 2010 teams that have lost 4 in a row are just 19-53 SU and 28-43-1 ATS their next game overall and 13-28 SU and 14-26-1 ATS if the game is at home.
( @Lions )

Since 2010 teams that have lost 3 in a row are 75-57-1 ATS. No significant difference between Home/Away.
( @Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins )

**FUqer** · 10-11-15, 11:17 AM

WEEK #5

»» Packers -9
»» Browns +6½
»» Redskins +7
»» Jaguars +1

»» Bills/Titans Over 42
______________________

Season 20-13

**eswerve4** · 10-11-15, 01:33 PM

gl

**FUqer** · 10-15-15, 08:42 AM

I just want to add my thoughts on the highly talked about Patriot game. First off, I think everyone is right to assume that this "should" be a blowout. I don't have any stats or trends to to say otherwise, but I have a bad feeling about this one and I will most likely stay clear. Some of my concerns are:
A heavily backed public road team in a prime time game.
The top two bets won last week and almost everyone and their g-ma will be on the Patriots.
The line seems a little fishy, the Colts don't have that much of a HF advantage and the Patriots have been really good on the road.
This is almost becoming about Brady vs the NFL. Brady is really good, but the NFL has tons of ways to influence a game with all these rules. And as much as some of you people seem to support Bradys side of the story, I would think the overwhelming majority of the public are on the other side and would love to see Brady fail in this game. If there is some questionable calls, it will go over better with the public and in front of the home crowd.
I think this has all the ingredients for shenanigans to happen. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of playing the Patriots, but I would at least wait to see how these other highly backed teams do first. You definitely want to Saints to cover tonight.

**44 Mag** · 10-15-15, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

I just want to add my thoughts on the highly talked about Patriot game. First off, I think everyone is right to assume that this "should" be a blowout. I don't have any stats or trends to to say otherwise, but I have a bad feeling about this one and I will most likely stay clear. Some of my concerns are:
A heavily backed public road team in a prime time game.
The top two bets won last week and almost everyone and their g-ma will be on the Patriots.
The line seems a little fishy, the Colts don't have that much of a HF advantage and the Patriots have been really good on the road.
This is almost becoming about Brady vs the NFL. Brady is really good, but the NFL has tons of ways to influence a game with all these rules. And as much as some of you people seem to support Bradys side of the story, I would think the overwhelming majority of the public are on the other side and would love to see Brady fail in this game. If there is some questionable calls, it will go over better with the public and in front of the home crowd.
I think this has all the ingredients for shenanigans to happen. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of playing the Patriots, but I would at least wait to see how these other highly backed teams do first. You definitely want to Saints to cover tonight.

Listen, everyone in America hates the Pat's, except us Boston fans. They have become America's Team to hate, like the Cowboys used to be. You will never change public perception, they are going to think what they want. Just don't see how that is going to affect the outcome. The Pat's are the better team on paper, and on the field. They have been crushing the Colts since Luck started with them. What makes you think that is going to change ??? BOL in your wagers, I still remember you from the MLB DOD. LOL.

**FUqer** · 10-15-15, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Listen, everyone in America hates the Pat's, except us Boston fans. They have become America's Team to hate, like the Cowboys used to be. You will never change public perception, they are going to think what they want. Just don't see how that is going to affect the outcome. The Pat's are the better team on paper, and on the field. They have been crushing the Colts since Luck started with them. What makes you think that is going to change ??? BOL in your wagers, I still remember you from the MLB DOD. LOL.

Hi Mag, I agree with you, this should be a blowout. But this is the NFL and the things I mentioned are enough for me to stay away from the game.

**44 Mag** · 10-15-15, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Hi Mag, I agree with you, this should be a blowout. But this is the NFL and the things I mentioned are enough for me to stay away from the game.

I mean we all know the Ref's can influence a little. They have thrown more flags this year than in the History of the NFL. LOL. It is becoming ridiculous. Anyway, I can see people staying away, but not many. Look forward to your wagers and BOL. Good season so far for you by the way.

**FUqer** · 10-18-15, 09:21 AM

WEEK #6

»» Chiefs +3½
»» Dolphins +2

**FUqer** · 10-18-15, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

WEEK #6

»» Chiefs +3½
»» Dolphins +2

»» Texans +3

**FUqer** · 10-19-15, 05:51 AM

week 6 = 2-1

season = 25-16

**FUqer** · 10-19-15, 05:00 PM

»» Giants +4
___________________

Went 2-1 yesterday to bring me to 25-14 ATS in the NFL so far. 0-2 in Totals.

I have no clue what the hell some of these coaches are doing lately. Andy Reid decides to go for it, instead of kicking an easy FG. It was way to early and they would of still needed a FG to tie later, that prolly cost me a 3-0 day.
And, Mike Tomlin continues to make me scratch my head as a Steelers fan. He decides to go for two, instead of making it a 3 point game. Who the hell would do that? He had to be thinking that the Cardinals were for sure going to score a TD and he wanted to try to be down by 3, instead of 4, but that was just a stupid call and a lack of confidence in your team. I was so ready to live bet the heck out of Arizona when Landry came in, I'm glad I didn't. Vick is actually making Landry look like a viable backup.
The Colts fake punt? All I can do is laugh at that one, cuz I had no vested interest.
___________________

Giants should be out for some revenge after losing 27-0 last year on Sunday Night Football and at Home to Philly.
The NFC East hasn't been very good at Home, especially Philly, who is 6-15 ATS as divisional home favorite.
The underdog has went 9-2 ATS in Giants games and 9-1 ATS in Eagles games. GLA!

**44 Mag** · 10-19-15, 05:59 PM

As always, great selections by you so far this season. Keep up the great work.

**FUqer** · 10-20-15, 12:23 AM

___________________

»» Seahawks -5

I'm not as impressed by Kaepernick lately as some are, he has done well vs 2 piss poor pass defenses.
I'm well aware of Seattles' struggles, but Russell Wilson shouldn't be pressured near as much as he has been vs the Bengals and Panthers.
The 49ers have problems getting to the QB and are tied for 3rd worst in the NFL in sacks and only have one forced fumble on defense.
The 49ers give up the 2nd most yards per game at 409, the worst pass defense as far as yardage given up in the league.
Seattle has been in plenty of pressure games in Prime Time, how is Kaepernick going to handle it?
Seattle is still a good team and their backs are against the wall and I think they get it together against a lesser opponenet.

They played in San Fran on Thursday last year and Seattle won 19-3.

Seahawks 7-0 ATS vs 49ers L7.
Seahawks 1-6-1 ATS L8
Seahawks 7-2 ATS as Away Fav. after being a HF in the previous game.
Seahawks 5-2 ATS after a Home Loss.

49ers 3-9 ATS L12 overall.
49ers 2-10-1 ATS L13 at Home.
49ers 6-1-1 ATS L8 as Home Dog
49ers 3-1 ATS L4 as a Home Dog for the 2nd game in a row.

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»» Falcons -4

Atlanta will be making the short trip to face the Titans and will look to rebound after losing their first game of the year.
The Titans are used to losing and have been quite good at it over the past 2 seasons. (See trends below)
Julio Jones and Freeman and the rest of the Falcons have had a much needed few extra days of rest since playing last Thursday.
Atlanta will make the playoffs while the Titans are fighting for last place in the worst division in football.
Atlanta should have too much firepower for the Titans, I don't see how they will be able to keep it close.

Falcons 6-1 ATS L7 Road games.
Falcons 4-1 ATS L5 after a loss.

Titans 3-18 SU and 6-15 ATS the last 2 seasons.
Titans 3-16 ATS L19 after a loss.
Titans 0-12 SU L12 as a Home Dog after a loss.

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»» Packers -2.5

This game isn't until Week #8, but I wanted to lock -2.5 in early. I'm not going to look up a bunch of trends and stats for this one.
The Broncos defense will have a hard time winning this one on their own and Mannings arm and the weather is just going to get worse.
They won't stay undefeated very long and who better to hand them their first loss than the high powered Packers.

------------------------------------

**FUqer** · 10-22-15, 05:39 PM

I got Seattle -5 early, it was posted above.

**FUqer** · 10-25-15, 10:59 AM

»» Falcons -4
»» Chiefs -2
»» Texans +4½
»» Jets +8
»» Lions +1
»» Bucs +3
»» Colts -4½
»» Eagles +3

**FUqer** · 10-29-15, 01:23 AM

Teams at Home after a win of 3 or less are 1-5 ATS this season and just 33% ATS since 2012.
SDQL = H and 0 < p:margin <= 3 and season>=2012

Applies This Week To: Broncos & Falcons

YEAR ATS

2014 = 10-18
2013 = 12-17
2012 = 6-19-2
2011 = 10-17
2010 = 15-12-1
2009 = 5-13-1
2008 = 10-15-1
2007 = 10-15

_________________

I already played the Packers -2.5 and posted it over a week ago. I might have to take a good look into the Bucs. Just wanted to share.

**ENCE** · 10-29-15, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Teams at Home after a win of 3 or less are 1-5 ATS this season and just 33% ATS since 2012.
SDQL = H and 0 < p:margin <= 3 and season>=2012

Applies This Week To: Broncos & Falcons

YEAR ATS

2014 = 10-18
2013 = 12-17
2012 = 6-19-2
2011 = 10-17
2010 = 15-12-1
2009 = 5-13-1
2008 = 10-15-1
2007 = 10-15

_________________

I already played the Packers -2.5 and posted it over a week ago. I might have to take a good look into the Bucs. Just wanted to share.

Between the Bears and Bucs, Lovie tends to get his teams up for the fight when they're big dawgs (7 or more) in division games... his teams are 8-1 ATS in this spot

Hmmmmmm....

**FUqer** · 10-29-15, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by ENCE

Between the Bears and Bucs, Lovie tends to get his teams up for the fight when they're big dawgs (7 or more) in division games... his teams are 8-1 ATS in this spot

Hmmmmmm....

Thanks for the trend.

**FUqer** · 10-29-15, 04:09 PM

NO PLAY

The Dolphins have had trouble converting 3rd downs, they are last in the league at just 29% on the season and even in the win last week vs the Texans, they were 1/9 on 3rd Down.
They are also in a bad spot as the Road team on a short week, and they have not been good on the Road in their division lately, going 1-7 ATS L8.
They are also a bit banged up in the secondary with Grimes and McCain listed as Probable with knee injuries.

Brady should have time to throw vs a sack unit that has just 11 on the season, and vs a banged up secondary. I think the last I heard Mr. Brady had a 20/2 TD/INT ratio on Thursdays.
But, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots trying to get their run game going, which ranks 31st in league vs the 30th ranked Rush defense of the Dolphins.
I doubt the Dolphins will have a big lead to rescue them from their poor run defense in this game, like they did last week.
They have played better under a new coach, but that momentum will only last so long, they still have the same players and I need to see how they respond when they are in a competitive game and not blowing out shit teams.
The Patriots may be 31st in rushing, but that is because they pass 70% of the time.

Patriots 2-4 ATS L6 vs Dolphins when favored by 8 or more.
Patriots 3-5 ATS L8 overall at Home when favored by 8 or more.
Patriots 2-8 ATS L10 after winning 6 str8 when favored by 8 or more
Patriots 1-3 ATS L4 after an ATS loss.
Patriots 0-2 ATS their last two games vs the AFC.
Patriots 1-3 ATS L4 Division games, 5-9 ATS L14.

OVER 5-1 L6 games the Patriots were favored by 8 or more at Home.
OVER 4-0 L4 games the Patriots were on a 6 game win streak and favored by 8 or more.
OVER 4-0 L4 games the Patriots played an AFC team.
OVER 4-1 L5 Dolphins games, 7-2 L9.
OVER 3-0 L3 games the Dolphins were a Road dog.

UNDER 4-0 L4 in Dolphin Division games when they are a Road dog of 8 or less.
UNDER 9-1 L10 Dolphins were on the Road vs the AFC East.

Dolphins 2-5 ATS L7 in Road games after an ATS win.
Dolphins 3-1 ATS L4 as a Road dog of 8 or less.
Dolphins 0-3 SUATS L3 as a Road dog of 8 or less vs the AFC East.
Dolphins 0-5 ATS L5 vs the AFC East.
Dolphins 1-7 ATS L8 Away games vs the AFC East.
Dolphins 5-1 SUATS L6 games after they won two str8.

**showmetheTDs** · 10-31-15, 10:30 AM

dolphins looked bad

**FUqer** · 11-01-15, 01:57 AM

»» Bears +1
»» Bucs +7½
»» Packers -2½

Season 29-22 for +8.8
_______________________

Bears 8-3 SUATS L11 vs Vikings
Bears 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS L14 at Home vs Vikings
Bears 5-0 SUATS L5 as Home dog vs Vikings

Vikings 1-8 L9 as a Road favorite.
Vikings 0-6 SUATS L6 as a Road fav. after being a fav. last game.
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Lovie Smith 8-1 ATS L9 as dogs of 7 or more in Division games.

Falcons 0-5 ATS L5 when favored by 7 or more, all at Home.
Falcons 0-4 ATS L4 at Home when favored by 7 or more vs an division opponent after a win .

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Packers 9-2 SUATS L11 on 12 or more days rest.
Packers 21-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS since 2011 vs winning teams.
Packers 5-0 SU L5 and 10-3 SU L13 as a favorite of 3 or less.

Broncos 7-18 ATS L25 against NFC North
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Posted this earlier in the week in more detail. Applies to Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

Teams at Home after a win of 3 or less are 1-5 ATS this season and just 33% ATS since 2012.

**FUqer** · 11-01-15, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

»» Bears +1
»» Bucs +7½
»» Steelers ML
»» Packers -2½

Season 29-22 for +8.8

_______________________
Added Steelers ML.

Steelers 9-3-2 L14 as Home dog.
Steelers 4-0 SUATS at Home vs a team that has won at least 6 str8
Steelers 6-0 SU L6 Division games in Week 8

Bengals 2-6 SU L8 Division games in Week 8
Bengals 6-0 SU for 1st time according to my database.
Bengals started 5-0 once before and faced the Steelers in Cincy and lost 17-24.
Bengals 5-0-1 ATS this season.
Bengals 7-3-1 ATS L11 games, but two of those losses were vs Steelers.

**FUqer** · 11-05-15, 07:01 PM

»» Browns +13
»» Browns/Bengals Over 45½

**FUqer** · 11-07-15, 09:43 PM

0-2 Thursday, I'm just not good on Totals. Season ATS 30-24, Totals = 0-3

»» Steelers -4½
»» Dolphins +3

**FUqer** · 11-08-15, 11:25 AM

ADD

»» Jets -7½
»» Panthers +3

»» Teaser: Jags/Jets Under 52½, Falcons +2, Bears +14½

**FUqer** · 11-08-15, 01:00 PM

ADD

Vikings -1

**FUqer** · 11-15-15, 11:05 AM

Sunday 11/15

»» Steelers -5
»» Titans +5
»» Ravens -4½
»» Cowboys -1
»» Bears +7
»» Redskins pk
»» Eagles -6

**FUqer** · 11-18-15, 10:28 AM

Thursday 11/19

»» Jaguars -3 +100

**FUqer** · 11-20-15, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by fuqer

thursday 11/19

:d»» jaguars -3 +100

nfl ats = 37-31 + 7.10
nfl o/u = 0-3 - 3.30

**FUqer** · 11-22-15, 11:53 AM

+6.25 - Dolphins +1 vs Cowboys
+4.76 - 49ers +14 at Seahawks
+3.86 - Texans +3 vs Jets
+3.75 - Vikings +1 vs Packers
+3.45 - Eagles -6.5 vs Bucs
+3.17 - Chargers +3 vs Chiefs

+1.58 - Patriots -7 vs Bills
+0.48 - Raiders +1 at Lions
+0.20 - Rams +3 at Ravens
+0.16 - Falcons -4 vs Colts
+0.05 - Panthers -7 vs Redskins
+0.01 - Broncos -1.5 at Bears
+0.01 - Bengals +4.5 at Cardinals

Decreased Value From Line Shifts Compared to Monday: Lions, Colts, Ravens, Cardinals, Eagles, Broncos

Side Shifts due to Value Change: Lions, Colts, Ravens, Cardinals

Increased Value From Line Shifts Compared to Monday: Dolphins, Texans, 49ers, Vikings

**FUqer** · 11-22-15, 11:54 AM

PLAYS

»» Rams +3
»» Vikings PK
»» Chargers +3

**FUqer** · 11-22-15, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

PLAYS

»» Rams +3
»» Vikings PK
»» Chargers +3

»» Cowboys -2½
»» Broncos -2

**FUqer** · 11-22-15, 12:51 PM

10 point Teaser

Raiders/Lions Over 38½
Texans +14
Bengals +14½

**FUqer** · 11-23-15, 06:11 PM

»» Patriots -7 -105

**FUqer** · 11-26-15, 11:25 AM

11/26

»» Eagles +3 -120