2014-15 NFL picks

[No coincidences]

Alright, let's do this.

+81.8U last year.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2564234-2013-14-nfl-picks-p17.html

+21.73U in 2012-13 (despite losing my ass on the Super Bowl).

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/1888702-2012-13-nfl-picks-p22.html

[No coincidences]

Week 1 leans for now:

GB
ATL
IND
DET

Will try to tread lightly early on, though.

[mikekap]

Thank you for all you do!

[No coincidences]

Thank you for all you do!

No problem. Hopefully we can finish in the black again this season. NFL has treated me well through the years, but we all know there are no guarantees.

[Dayuuum]

Week 1 leans for now:

GB
ATL
IND
DET

Will try to tread lightly early on, though.

Why are you leaning towards GB in the first game??

Seattle rarely lose at their home.

[kj8210]

Why are you leaning towards GB in the first game??

Seattle rarely lose at their home.

Also leaning GB. Winning and covering the spread are two different beasts. I think Seattle should win but I dont think they will cover. I see this being a slow paced game with the GB receivers getting tied up with the secondary so they might mix in the run game more. But defensive penalties have also been getting called alot more, and with the physical way that Seattle plays defense, I could see them giving up alot of yardage in penalties.

[2daBank]

Also leaning GB. Winning and covering the spread are two different beasts. I think Seattle should win but I dont think they will cover. I see this being a slow paced game with the GB receivers getting tied up with the secondary so they might mix in the run game more. But defensive penalties have also been getting called alot more, and with the physical way that Seattle plays defense, I could see them giving up alot of yardage in penalties.

strangely enough sea was the least penalized team in preseason which weird with the bs emphasis on the penalties by the secondary which i thought was partly a result of sea kicking peytons ass..sea corners grab clutch and hold more than i think anyone and actually do it on purpose with the thinking that refs wont continually call pi over and over, that shit was up 450% in the preseason but who knows if they continue to call it that way? ive always believed the way to beat sea is to bust that d in the mouth with a power run gm, lacy makes that a really strong option for pack, i think gb can and very well might win this gm. 6 points a lot against a team with 1 of the best qbs and now one of the better run gms imo, peppers has started to looked comfortable playing lb in a 3-4 which gives pack a scary rush with him and mathews..

[2daBank]

oh yea almost forgot..gl this season NC!!

[kj8210]

strangely enough sea was the least penalized team in preseason which weird with the bs emphasis on the penalties by the secondary which i thought was partly a result of sea kicking peytons ass..sea corners grab clutch and hold more than i think anyone and actually do it on purpose with the thinking that refs wont continually call pi over and over, that shit was up 450% in the preseason but who knows if they continue to call it that way? ive always believed the way to beat sea is to bust that d in the mouth with a power run gm, lacy makes that a really strong option for pack, i think gb can and very well might win this gm. 6 points a lot against a team with 1 of the best qbs and now one of the better run gms imo, peppers has started to looked comfortable playing lb in a 3-4 which gives pack a scary rush with him and mathews..

Glad your leaning the same way Bank! I really like the under too for some reason even with all the bs calls. I just dont see this playing out as a high scoring game.

[2daBank]

Glad your leaning the same way Bank! I really like the under too for some reason even with all the bs calls. I just dont see this playing out as a high scoring game.

im really gonna be easy on totals 1st week or 2 until i see how this crap plays out.. i think we prob talking like 24-20 type gm so i guess id lean same way but have no desire to play it being that close to number and the question marks about how games gonna be officiated..

[KVB]

Best of Luck NoCoin, I’ll be checking in regularly.

[Lincoln Scofield]

Week 1 leans for now:

GB
ATL
IND
DET

Will try to tread lightly early on, though.

double

[Lincoln Scofield]

Week 1 leans for now:

GB
ATL
IND
DET

Will try to tread lightly early on, though.

Don't know how anyone could lean ATL this week. Saints with an advantage at every position, including every coaching position, except WR. No two ways about it. But let's talk about the line for a quick sec

Atlanta fully healthy minus Baker...biggest rival in the division...they couldn't even OPEN as 3 point favs at home 3 months ago (open was -1.5)...and now they're +3 at home with the -115 juice? with a team who is perceived as equal to the Saints in the general public? If that line doesn't come off the 3 with the juice for the Falcons that's a loss before it even starts.

[KVB]

Don't know how anyone could lean ATL this week. Couple things...

1. Line OPENED at -3.
Falcons as healthy as they've ever been.

Yeah, I'm questioning Atlanta too, but they can be tough at home. From what I can see, the line opened with Atlanta -1. I think early bets (before summer, probably heavy, or max wagers) went towards NO, sending it to a pick. But slowly, by the 4th of July or so, the public brought it back too Atlanta -1.5. Since then, the line has dropped...New Orleans now a 3 point favorite of late, again probably some heavy wagers or max bets.

It seems that the money that moves the lines is on New Orleans. But did it move too far?

Good Luck.

[Lincoln Scofield]

Yeah, I'm questioning Atlanta too, but they can be tough at home. From what I can see, the line opened with Atlanta -1. I think early bets (before summer, probably heavy, or max wagers) went towards NO, sending it to a pick. But slowly, by the 4th of July or so, the public brought it back too Atlanta -1.5. Since then, the line has dropped...New Orleans now a 3 point favorite of late, again probably some heavy wagers or max bets.

It seems that the money that moves the lines is on New Orleans. But did it move too far?

Good Luck.

You're right about the line. I had to double check it as I was typing. It opened at 3 at one book but it was a shitty one. Pinny was -1.5. I edited the 2nd post.

[No coincidences]

oh yea almost forgot..gl this season NC!!

Good luck my man.

[No coincidences]

Feel like I need to make a play tonight, but not sure.

Still leaning Pack and GB TT over 20.5.

[imadegen]

gl this year. like pack myself tonight too.

[r1kkie]

Good luck this season!

[2daBank]

Feel like I need to make a play tonight, but not sure.

Still leaning Pack and GB TT over 20.5.

feel like i should just wait for sunday but that not very realistic, lol.. the team total route might not be a half bad idea, gets rid of the whole fear of betting against sea at home at least. even if pack make mistakes and sea runs out early still a pretty good chance rodgers hits this trying to come back, eliminates most my concerns about lynch running all over gb or them over committing to stop the run and getting torched. i do think pack can move the rock in this gm..

[ImmortalKrop]

Lang and Wizzle on Packers.

Packers = dead money

[Sixla]

Hope u kill it this season Coin! GL to you brotha.

[Tommy Karate]

gl nc

[No coincidences]

Glad I passed.

Packers were surprisingly awful.

[No coincidences]

Hope u kill it this season Coin! GL to you brotha.

gl nc

Thanks fellas.

[KRIT]

Glad I passed.

Packers were surprisingly awful.

Is that much of a surprise though? Everyone who plays a prime time game in Seattle gets blown out. Saw on SportsCenter that Seahawks are 8-0 in primetime games the past couple years with an average win margin of 19 points.

[No coincidences]

Still looking at Falcons early.

Also like Titans and Rams, maybe Bengals and Dolphins.

[yanksallday7]

I hear you with the Falcons, only thing I'm worried about is the run game. We know Ryan/Jones/White will do great things, but you can't win games much just by throwing....Falcons are my team I just hope we win more with this year with our injured guys back.

[2daBank]

Still looking at Falcons early.

Also like Titans and Rams, maybe Bengals and Dolphins.

why bungals? i know im usually little too high on balty but less than a fg at home vs the ginger (0-3 @balty i believe) and a new oc who rather not throw a pass? i still respect the balty d enough to think that a weak line, plus i think kubiac was one of the better off season moves any team made as i think this personnel fits what he likes to do perfectly..

i couldnt play atl but im prob passing..

[2daBank]

I hear you with the Falcons, only thing I'm worried about is the run game. We know Ryan/Jones/White will do great things, but you can't win games much just by throwing....Falcons are my team I just hope we win more with this year with our injured guys back.

i think this especially holds true vs the saints, you gotta run on this d imo.. of coarse i think atl will be much closer to years past than the train wreck of last year but i think saints racing seachickens for home field and the team to beat in the nfc..

[No coincidences]

why bungals? i know im usually little too high on balty but less than a fg at home vs the ginger (0-3 @balty i believe) and a new oc who rather not throw a pass? i still respect the balty d enough to think that a weak line, plus i think kubiac was one of the better off season moves any team made as i think this personnel fits what he likes to do perfectly..

i couldnt play atl but im prob passing..

I think that line says it all. No reason for BAL to not be about -3.5 here.

It may sound crazy, but I think the ATL/NO under 52.5 is worth a look.

[2daBank]

I think that line says it all. No reason for BAL to not be about -3.5 here.

It may sound crazy, but I think the ATL/NO under 52.5 is worth a look.

i played the 1st half under last year in no. i always think unders worth a look in aints gms cause the totals always high as shit and unlike other high powered attacks peyton doesnt get away from the run gm for long stretches real often..

i guess i looked at the balty line more like how quickly ppls view of them has changed, not like it was a tell. there were a couple lines pretty similar last season including this matchup (also hou and gb come to mind, split but if i recall they shoulda beat gb)..you could be right i never think bout it the way you do, just think it more a continuing undervalue of them until they prove themselves with the younger cast on d and flacco as the guy. cant say enough how much i like kubiak calling plays for this team, ive been wrong before tho ..

[thetrinity]

baltimore shouldnt been laying less then 3 i agree completely. falcons seem like the obvious play

[No coincidences]

OK, here we go....

ATL +3.5 (-115) (2.3U to win 2)
TENN +3.5 (-115) (2.3U to win 2)
CIN +1 (-105) (2.1U to win 2)
StL -2.5 (-108) (2.16U to win 2)
ATL/NO under 52.5 (-115) (2.3U to win 2)
StL -130 (1.3U to win 1)
OAK +7 (-115) (1.15U to win 1)

[2daBank]

my impatient ass didnt wait long enough for lambs i knew that could happen, fukk


got pretty good numbers on my totals at least, for whatever that worth..