A lot has happened since I first introduced The Pendulum Cycle
Theory in 2012. At the time I used the theory exclusively on 10
point teasers. My back tests were successful for 5 years prior and
2012 was a smashing success for me.
2013 was a disaster. I do not chalk it up to my theory failing,
but rather I encountered something that I did not know how to deal
with and tried too many strategies to cope with these uncharted
waters. My 10 pont teaser strategy depended greatly on massive
polarization amongst teams in the league. I needed 8-10 really good
teams and 8-10 really crappy teams. 2013 saw more parity amongst
teams then I had ever experienced in the past and I was unsure how to
deal with it. As a result I used my 10 point teaser strategy,
something I called matrixing, 3 different touting services, and a 15
point teaser strategy. 2013 was a roller coaster ride. I came very
close to doubling my money 3 times. I also came to the brink of
disaster before each of those peaks. I went all in on 15 point
teasers to dig myself out of the hole and it worked 3 times. I got
cocky as a result. In week 16 I was pretty close to even money on
the season but I was hellbent on hitting 100%. I went all in again
and this time my luck ran out.
2013's disaster did bare fruit
however. I went back to the drawing board. The first and biggest
mistake I had made was trying to squeeze too much out of my system
instead of taking what the bookies were giving me. I could have come
out ahead 20% had I simply used better money management. I came up
with a new approach that does not rely on teasers. It instead chases
straight bets and is adaptable to point spreads and totals. I
further tested the idea in the MLB and had two separate experiments
that both netted 40% ROI. I had a 3rd experiment that was
a terrible distraction I called the semi-arbitrage. Originally it
was designed to be a control experiment to the other two. The teams
for this strategy are random and thus any chase system should fail
over time. I went on a massive streak of 34 wins in a row using this
strategy and started feeling invincible once again. I put a tiny
bankroll on it to see what I could do. I used the strategy to turn
$200 into over $950 before the shit hit the fan. Luckily I was smart
enough this time to take the tiny profits I had left and call it a
day. I walked away with $246. It is a far cry from $950 but any
profit is a good profit.
The MLB experiments crystallized my
ideas. I feel very strongly that my strategy gives me an edge.
Could I just be fooling myself? Sure. That is why I conduct these
experiments, to see if there is merit to my ideas or am I just being
delusional.
The NBA and MLB experiments were paper trades.
This one will be the real deal. I am putting $1,000 on the line. I
am fully prepared to lose it.
What is this new strategy? It is a 4 tier grand martingale
system. My filter is fairly simple. I am watching for a team to
lose ATS 3 weeks in a row. That being the case, the experiment will
not begin until week 4. If there is no team that has lost 3 games
ATS in a row I will chose a team that ranks high on the ESPN power
rankings with at least one loss ATS and plug it in. I plan to get
out by week 15. If my chase is not resolved I will continue into
week 16 and 17 to try and score a win. If I have a loss in week 15
but am showing a substantial profit then I may chose to take my
profits off the table.
My target is 38% ROI. Being that this is a grand martingale the
profits are fairly predictable as long as I score the wins I
need.
This is a chase system and I make no apologies for it.
I know there are a lot of chase-haters out there. Please spare me
the commentary as I have heard all of the arguments before. If this
game is random as many suggest then sooner or later I am destined to
fail. I have made my peace with that. If it is not random and I am
right about these bubble patterns then I have discovered a clearly
defined edge. This edge lies at the very heart of the point spread
system. My theory is that the system depends on these bubbles to
maintain the uncanny balance between favorites and underdogs. My
theory is that this game is not random at all, it is cyclical, and as
such is highly vulnerable to chase systems. The reason why most
chases fail is because they do not follow these cycles. Chase
systems fail against random games of chance. It has been
mathematically proven and is a highly documented fact, even in my own
experiments. This is different. The gambler's fallacy is not a
fallacy at all, but sound logic when it comes to sports. Prior
outcomes effect the spreads. The spreads effect the odds. It is
simply a matter of timing the cycles and designing a chase system
deep enough to capture the wins and shallow enough to show a
respectable profit. It is a balancing act.
This is my 3rd
NFL season using this idea. I have seen enough results that I am
convinced that I am right. Though I am personally convinced my
sample size is far too small to draw any such conclusions. I am
humble enough to realize this could be nothing more then a fool's
errand. I know what the experts say. I have an idea that
contradicts conventional wisdom. I have test results showing
evidence that my theory is correct. I call these “experiments”
because they are testing this idea.
If I hit 19% for the NFL I will have 100% on the year. I hit 22%
in the NBA and 40% in the MLB. If you compound all three numbers it
comes out to 100% ROI. That is the true test of a chase system. If
it can consistently survive past 100% ROI before failing it is
legitmate. It simply comes down to money management. Anything less
then 100% is an incomplete trial for a chase system puts your total
bankroll at risk.
I believe I will hit that 19% and more.
That is what I have set out to do, and this thread is intended to
document my results. See you in week 4.
Theory in 2012. At the time I used the theory exclusively on 10
point teasers. My back tests were successful for 5 years prior and
2012 was a smashing success for me.
2013 was a disaster. I do not chalk it up to my theory failing,
but rather I encountered something that I did not know how to deal
with and tried too many strategies to cope with these uncharted
waters. My 10 pont teaser strategy depended greatly on massive
polarization amongst teams in the league. I needed 8-10 really good
teams and 8-10 really crappy teams. 2013 saw more parity amongst
teams then I had ever experienced in the past and I was unsure how to
deal with it. As a result I used my 10 point teaser strategy,
something I called matrixing, 3 different touting services, and a 15
point teaser strategy. 2013 was a roller coaster ride. I came very
close to doubling my money 3 times. I also came to the brink of
disaster before each of those peaks. I went all in on 15 point
teasers to dig myself out of the hole and it worked 3 times. I got
cocky as a result. In week 16 I was pretty close to even money on
the season but I was hellbent on hitting 100%. I went all in again
and this time my luck ran out.
2013's disaster did bare fruit
however. I went back to the drawing board. The first and biggest
mistake I had made was trying to squeeze too much out of my system
instead of taking what the bookies were giving me. I could have come
out ahead 20% had I simply used better money management. I came up
with a new approach that does not rely on teasers. It instead chases
straight bets and is adaptable to point spreads and totals. I
further tested the idea in the MLB and had two separate experiments
that both netted 40% ROI. I had a 3rd experiment that was
a terrible distraction I called the semi-arbitrage. Originally it
was designed to be a control experiment to the other two. The teams
for this strategy are random and thus any chase system should fail
over time. I went on a massive streak of 34 wins in a row using this
strategy and started feeling invincible once again. I put a tiny
bankroll on it to see what I could do. I used the strategy to turn
$200 into over $950 before the shit hit the fan. Luckily I was smart
enough this time to take the tiny profits I had left and call it a
day. I walked away with $246. It is a far cry from $950 but any
profit is a good profit.
The MLB experiments crystallized my
ideas. I feel very strongly that my strategy gives me an edge.
Could I just be fooling myself? Sure. That is why I conduct these
experiments, to see if there is merit to my ideas or am I just being
delusional.
The NBA and MLB experiments were paper trades.
This one will be the real deal. I am putting $1,000 on the line. I
am fully prepared to lose it.
What is this new strategy? It is a 4 tier grand martingale
system. My filter is fairly simple. I am watching for a team to
lose ATS 3 weeks in a row. That being the case, the experiment will
not begin until week 4. If there is no team that has lost 3 games
ATS in a row I will chose a team that ranks high on the ESPN power
rankings with at least one loss ATS and plug it in. I plan to get
out by week 15. If my chase is not resolved I will continue into
week 16 and 17 to try and score a win. If I have a loss in week 15
but am showing a substantial profit then I may chose to take my
profits off the table.
My target is 38% ROI. Being that this is a grand martingale the
profits are fairly predictable as long as I score the wins I
need.
This is a chase system and I make no apologies for it.
I know there are a lot of chase-haters out there. Please spare me
the commentary as I have heard all of the arguments before. If this
game is random as many suggest then sooner or later I am destined to
fail. I have made my peace with that. If it is not random and I am
right about these bubble patterns then I have discovered a clearly
defined edge. This edge lies at the very heart of the point spread
system. My theory is that the system depends on these bubbles to
maintain the uncanny balance between favorites and underdogs. My
theory is that this game is not random at all, it is cyclical, and as
such is highly vulnerable to chase systems. The reason why most
chases fail is because they do not follow these cycles. Chase
systems fail against random games of chance. It has been
mathematically proven and is a highly documented fact, even in my own
experiments. This is different. The gambler's fallacy is not a
fallacy at all, but sound logic when it comes to sports. Prior
outcomes effect the spreads. The spreads effect the odds. It is
simply a matter of timing the cycles and designing a chase system
deep enough to capture the wins and shallow enough to show a
respectable profit. It is a balancing act.
This is my 3rd
NFL season using this idea. I have seen enough results that I am
convinced that I am right. Though I am personally convinced my
sample size is far too small to draw any such conclusions. I am
humble enough to realize this could be nothing more then a fool's
errand. I know what the experts say. I have an idea that
contradicts conventional wisdom. I have test results showing
evidence that my theory is correct. I call these “experiments”
because they are testing this idea.
If I hit 19% for the NFL I will have 100% on the year. I hit 22%
in the NBA and 40% in the MLB. If you compound all three numbers it
comes out to 100% ROI. That is the true test of a chase system. If
it can consistently survive past 100% ROI before failing it is
legitmate. It simply comes down to money management. Anything less
then 100% is an incomplete trial for a chase system puts your total
bankroll at risk.
I believe I will hit that 19% and more.
That is what I have set out to do, and this thread is intended to
document my results. See you in week 4.
