I am rolling this weekend. Even the calls I made that didn't play have been cashing. Saints win. The next play makes me nervous because the Cowboys have been hot lately. I am taking the Redskins +9. I am currently up 24%. (I have been playing $35 units in a Grand Martingale. I had a couple of plays in a chase that were -120 that threw my results off a little but I am on track to hit my goal of 40% ROI) The Redskins have lost the last 4 games ATS. Tonight starts a new chase with them. Hopefully my luck holds up. Another important fade which is probably another that I will be too chicken to take is the Broncos next week. Denver has won 3 straight ATS. I do not normally like to fade strong teams but NFL.com put up an article after their win over the Chargers announcing them as the best football team in the league. That is telegraphing to me that a reversal is coming.
-
Comment -
Just pulled this off from NFL.com. I have read "The Fix is In" and believe that the Broncos are a storyline fix by the league to win the superbowl. People may disagree with that and that is okay. However, the story I just read is reminiscent of the precursor to the Patriots vs. the Eagles in 2007. According to this article everybody should give up and just hand the Lombardi Trophy over to the Broncos right now. We are being set up for an ATS fall. Will it happen in Gillette Stadium next week. Not sure. If this is a storyline fix then they may want to have Peyton finally squash rival Tom Brady. However, there are indicators that go both ways for this game. The Pats beat the spread by 21. This is a key fade indicator for me when playing 10 point teasers. The Broncos have beat the spread 4 times in a row which is a key fade indicator according to my 3 game regression theory. I am locked into a chase with the Redskins so I may not even need to concern myself with this for next week depending on the outcome. The Chargers are now on my radar as a play as well as the Seahawks. These are both safer plays according to my square gut instincts, but when I see articles like this it throws up a huge red flag. It may not happen in this game, but the time to fade the Broncos is now. Not sure if I will pull the trigger on it but I am announcing it so that we can at least track it and see if I am right.
Analysis
The team to beat: Why nobody can touch Denver
30
It's Super Bowl or bust for Demaryius Thomas, Peyton Manning and Co. Adam Schein explains why these Denver Broncos are the cream of the NFL crop -- and will deliver on the game's biggest stage. ReadComment -
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5 W 15 L 9 W 21
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5 L 4 W 9 L 22.5
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 W 7.5 L 15 L 6 W 22.5
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE L 2 W 16 W 6.5
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5 L 20 W 4.5 W 21.5
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5 W 28 W 15 L 5.5
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5 L 7.5 L 24 W 5.5
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1 W 20 L 22 W 3
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2 L 2.5 L 4.5 W 11
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5 W 2.5 W 24 L 21.5
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5 W 2 W 22 L 6.5
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1 L 2 W 5 L 11
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11 W 4 W 17.5 W 3.5
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5 L 5.5 L 6 L 3.5
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5 BYE W 6 W 18.5
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE W 5.5 L 8 L 3
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5 L 27 L 5.5 BYE
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2 W 27 BYE L 4
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2 L 5 L 5
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 L 2 W 17 W 5.5
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22 W 2 W 14 L 20
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6 W 17 L 16 L 21
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5 W 14 L 2* L 2.5
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22 L 14 W 6 W 7
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5 BYE W 2* W 20
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5 L 17 L 15 W 2.5 BYE
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6 W 7.5 L 14 W 3
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5 L 28 BYE L 7
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5 W 11.5 L 17.5 BYE
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2 L 17 L 9 L 3
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2 L 11.5 W 9 L 18.5
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11 W 5 W 8 W 4
Comment -
Well this weekend ends on a high note. All of my picks hit. Even the system plays I did not pull the trigger on but considered also hit. I had considered Atlanta and Pittsburgh. I avoided ATL because if they did not cover they have a bye week next week. I didn't take PIT because IND has been so hot lately and I did not want to push my luck. CIN, NO, and WAS all hit. This is very gratifying after barely squeaking by on my final tier with the Saints last week. Chase systems are certainly scary but the theory is working well so far. I am 4 bets away from cracking my target of 40%.Comment -
A lot happened this week and many of the teams that had key indicators ended up concluding their cycles as a result. Here are the teams I am looking at going into week 9. SD has lost 3 in a row ATS. So have the Seahawks. Before I decide to pull the trigger I want to look at their opposition. Denver has won 4 in a row which is a strong fade indicator. They face the Patriots. The Patriots just beat the spread by 21 points which is also a key fade indicator. Denver is a prime fade chase candidate right now but I am going to look at other teams before I pull the trigger on this one. I do not like going against hot teams, although it served me well this week. Arizona has also beat the spread 3 times in a row and is now a fade candidate.Comment -
I just took the Chargers +2. If they lose they have a bye week coming up the following week which is a situation I would normally try to avoid, but looking at their schedule it appears to be a bit weak. If they fail to cover against the Dolphins then they should be able to take care of business against either the Rams or Raiders. The Broncos is a strong fade candidate but it takes a lot of courage to pull the trigger on that one. If the Pats fail to beat the spread you have the Rams, Raiders, and Dolphins left in a 4 tier chase system. Typically a huge underdog is just the team to end up beating the spread but the square in me just can't stomach it. I will sit on the sidelines of that one. My top choice would have been the Cowboys but with the injury to Romo that game is not on the boards. The Cardinals are a really good fade right now and have some decent competition in the schedule. SD is available at +2 so rather then wait for the line to move I decided to take them. If they win I may take the Seahawks in the afternoon game but the spread is pretty steep on that one right now at -15.5. We'll see how SD does before I pull the trigger on that.Comment -
The Chargers are on a bye week this week and apparently they really need one after they got throttled by Miami. I am taking a bye week too. I am going to ride them to victory or demise. Cya next week.Comment -
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5 W 15 L 9 W 21 W 25 BYE
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5 L 4 W 9 L 22.5 L 3.5 W 11.5
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 W 7.5 L 15 L 6 W 22.5 BYE L 5
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE L 2 W 16 W 6.5 W 34.5 L 1.5
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5 L 20 W 4.5 W 21.5 W 20 L 11.5
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5 W 28 W 15 L 5.5 L 20 W 2.5
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5 L 7.5 L 24 W 5.5 L 1 L 28
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1 W 20 L 22 W 3 L 2.5 W 28
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2 L 2.5 L 4.5 W 11 L 9 BYE
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5 W 2.5 W 24 L 21.5 W 13 BYE
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5 W 2 W 22 L 6.5 W 1 L 15.5
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1 L 2 W 5 L 11 BYE L 2.5
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11 W 4 W 17.5 W 3.5 L 25 W 10.5
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5 L 5.5 L 6 L 3.5 L 34.5 BYE
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5 BYE W 6 W 18.5 W 3.5 W 5
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE W 5.5 L 8 L 3 W 6 L 10.5
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5 L 27 L 5.5 BYE L 13 L 10.5
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2 W 27 BYE L 4 W 9 W 16
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2 L 5 L 5 W 13 L 3 BYE
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 L 2 W 17 W 5.5 L 13 L 11 W 15.5
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22 W 2 W 14 L 20 BYE W 31
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6 W 17 L 16 L 21 BYE L 31
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5 W 14 L 2* L 2.5 BYE W 1.5
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22 L 14 W 6 W 7 W 3 BYE
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5 BYE W 2* W 20 W 14.5 L 10
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5 L 17 L 15 W 2.5 BYE W 7
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6 W 7.5 L 14 W 3 L 14.5 L 16
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5 L 28 BYE L 7 W 2.5 L 7
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5 W 11.5 L 17.5 BYE L 15 W 10
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2 L 17 L 9 L 3 L 6 W 10.5
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2 L 11.5 W 9 L 18.5 W 15 L 9
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11 W 5 W 8 W 4 W 11 W 9
Comment -
I am starting to see the importance of shopping for lines. The move I was hoping for apparently happened as the odds opened on the Chargers at -8. (I was actually hoping for -7 but that did not happen) However, I was on Betdsi as soon as the game ended last night and the line was -10 and still is. I am stepping away from the system a little bit because of gut instinct here. Hopefully I do not get bit for doing so, but Oakland tends to play the Chargers tough. I think -10 is a bit steep. I have chosen to do a 10 point teaser. I have teased the Chargers to pk. My next choice was NE. They are +3 against IND. They are coming off a bye week and this game is on prime time. I have a hard time seeing them losing this one, but that could just be the Patriots fan in me talking. I teased them to +13. FInally, I took the Broncos who were -9.5 and teased them to +0.5 against the Rams. The only play that truly fits the system I have presented is the Chargers. The other two choices are going off gut instinct and what I have seen these teams do historically. NE is especially strong after a bye week. The Rams already had their spoiler game against the 49ers. I don't think they have another one in them but you never know. I felt strong enough to put my money on it. We'll see what happens.Comment -
Arizona has won 5 ATS and would be a good candidate to fade. I made my choice and am sticking with it but I will have my eye on this. KC is also showing up as a fade, while CHI and NYG are candidates to for a turn around. CHI has a good chance to turn things around against MIN. NYG has a tougher road ahead but will see JAC in week 13.Comment -
Denver chokes. I am chasing the teaser with another. I have taken DET +10, NE +13, and SD -0.5. The Chargers make me nervous but that is usually the best time to take such a team. We'll see what happens. This is a 3rd tier bet, $300 to win $250.Comment -
Taking the ten point teaser turned out to be critical. I was swearing at the Lions the whole game. lol I didn't watch the Chargers but they failed to cover the spread. The extra 10 points allowed me to squeak through with both of them. The Patriots are the only game that is not a Pendulum Cycle play. I chose them counting on Coach Bellichik and Brady's record after a bye week to hold up. It could just be that I am a Pats fan and my bias made the decision. The Colts do scare me as they have been very good this year but I think the edge belongs to the Pats when it comes to preparing for big games like this. It has been a really tough weekend. I hope the Pats deliver and I squeak out of it with a W.Comment -
The ten point teaser saved me on the 4:00pm games but no extra points were needed for my 3rd leg. It could have just been my bias towards the Pats but I went against my system with that play because I had a gut instinct. I am now one win away from my target of 40% ROI. I am actually just $25 shy. I can switch to a straight Martingale to reel in the final win. I do not want to count my chickens before they hatch because this has been a tough season for me, but the difference has been the chase systems. I strongly believe that the Pendulum Cycle Theory is giving me just enough of an edge to make this possible. If I were flat betting I would be in the red right now, not up 37.5% for the season. I am counting on the point spread system to maintain balance. As long as it does its job properly I make money. So far it is proving true.Comment -
I just placed a 10 point teaser. This is the last chase I need to hit my target of 40%. I therefore can switch to a straight martingale instead of a grand. My first attempts at utilizing the Pendulum Cycle Theory was with 10 point teasers. When conditions were right it worked incredibly well but it requires great disparity between teams to function properly. I would take top tier teams that had just lost ATS and put them in a 10 point teaser and chase them. The theory was less effective last year because the good teams got worse and the bad teams got better. I did not even bother to use it because I did not have enough teams at the top to feed the system from one week to the next. This week I believe we have the conditions that made this approach so effective. Arizona is a strong fade as they have won 6 games in a row ATS. They have a back up QB he performed well against the Lions but I am not buying it. He had a couple of drives where he scored against a stout defense but then they shut him down completely. They are facing Seattle at home. Seattle has been struggling a bit but is still a top tier team. I think this will be a much truer test for Arizona as they go into enemy territory to play. I think the Cardinals have earned some respect which is why I have not taken a straight bet ATS on this, but Seattle has extra motivation to win this in order to stay in the playoff hunt. I think they are the better team. The combination will be too much for ARI to overcome. IND just suffered a beating at the hands of the Patriots. I think they will take their frustrations out on the hapless Jaguars. Denver had some serious injuries that completely changed the dynamic of that team offensively. They return home to face Miami. I believe they will make the adjustments they need to be competitive against the Dolphins. Hopefully Sanders will be back in the lineup on Sunday. I would be surprised to see Ball come back next week. Not sure how serious the ankle injury is on Julius Thomas but hopefully he is back too. Sanders was carving the Rams to shreds. When he was injured the game was essentially over. They had lost too many players and their game plan was completely out the window. Even if all three stars are out for this game they will have time to game plan for that. They still have weapons to move the ball. I have chosen to take the lines early before knowing what the injury report will be. I think they will find a way to get it done. If the Broncos get even two of the stars back I think the line will move and I wanted to capture it early. Teaser: IND -3.5, SEA +3.5, DEN +3.Comment -
With tonight's win I have hit my target of 40% ROI. I am out and moving on to the NBA. I will recap all of my bets. I hit 26% in my NBA experiment, 40% in my MLB experiment, and now 40% in the NFL. Had I started with $1,000 in the NBA it would now be $2,469. The test for any chase system is can it double your money before encountering a loss? I have done that. I am very pleased with the results. There is absolutely no doubt that the strategies I am using are very risky but I believe I am starting show evidence that it is not a negative EV as so many suggest. The balance the point spread creates is not natural nor random. It plays on fear and greed thus creating boom and bust cycles. I am timing those cycles and using chase systems to exploit themComment -
do ya thing :thumbsup:Comment -
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5 W 15 L 9 W 21 W 25 BYE W 24.5 W 16
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5 L 4 W 9 L 22.5 L 3.5 W 11.5 BYE
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 W 7.5 L 15 L 6 W 22.5 BYE L 5 L 8.5
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE L 2 W 16 W 6.5 W 34.5 L 1.5 W 8.5 W 4
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5 L 20 W 4.5 W 21.5 W 20 L 11.5 L 4.5 BYE
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5 W 28 W 15 L 5.5 L 20 W 2.5 BYE
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5 L 7.5 L 24 W 5.5 L 1 L 28 W 27 W 11.5
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1 W 20 L 22 W 3 L 2.5 W 28 L 20 W 4.5
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2 L 2.5 L 4.5 W 11 L 9 BYE W 20 L 11.5
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5 W 2.5 W 24 L 21.5 W 13 BYE L 24.5 W 5.5
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5 W 2 W 22 L 6.5 W 1 L 15.5 BYE L5.5
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1 L 2 W 5 L 11 BYE L 2.5 W 4.5 L 6
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11 W 4 W 17.5 W 3.5 L 25 W 10.5 L 25 L 4
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5 L 5.5 L 6 L 3.5 L 34.5 BYE L 4.5 L 1..5
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5 BYE W 6 W 18.5 W 3.5 W 5 W 4 L 13
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE W 5.5 L 8 L 3 W 6 L 10.5 W 4.5 W 13
NFC
10 POINT TEASERS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5 L 27 L 5.5 BYE L 13 L 10.5 L 2.5 W 2
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2 W 27 BYE L 4 W 9 W 16 L 28.5 W 6
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2 L 5 L 5 W 13 L 3 BYE L 19.5 W 6.5
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 L 2 W 17 W 5.5 L 13 L 11 W 15.5 BYE L 2
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22 W 2 W 14 L 20 BYE W 31 W 28.5 L 5.5
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6 W 17 L 16 L 21 BYE L 31 W 6 W 4
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5 W 14 L 2* L 2.5 BYE W 1.5 L 8 L 16
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22 L 14 W 6 W 7 W 3 BYE L 6 W 5.5
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5 BYE W 2* W 20 W 14.5 L 10 L 27
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5 L 17 L 15 W 2.5 BYE W 7 L 0.5 L 4.5
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6 W 7.5 L 14 W 3 L 14.5 L 16 W 0.5 BYE
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5 L 28 BYE L 7 W 2.5 L 7 W 19.5 L 4
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5 W 11.5 L 17.5 BYE L 15 W 10 W 2.5 L 6.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2 L 17 L 9 L 3 L 6 W 10.5 L 4 W 7
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2 L 11.5 W 9 L 18.5 W 15 L 9 W 25 W 1.5
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11 W 5 W 8 W 4 W 11 W 9 W 8 L 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 MIN MIN MIA NYG CIN
NYG CIN IND DEN NE DEN
STL NE JAC WAS GB BAL JAC NYJ BAL CIN IND
KC JAC ATL NE NYJ PIT CLE PIT GB SD ARI *
W L L W W L W L W W W
I chose to fade Arizona in week 12 because they had
been on a long win steak ATS and I felt that SEA was the the team to
break that streak.
- I got +3 for NO in week 7. The line apparently
moved to pk according to goldsheet which would have resulted in
another loss ATS for NO. I used the number I got because I managed
to break the streak by buying in early.
2014 Play Journal
9/3/14 10 pt teaser SEA o 36.5, PHI -1, NE +5.5 –
lose
9/7/14 10 pt teaser SF+7, TB +6, DEN o 43.5 – lose
9/7/14 DEN o 53.5 – win
9/10/14 10 pt teaser PIT +13, NE +7, NO o 37.5 –
lose
9/10/14 NE -3 – win
9/14/14 10 pt teaser DEN -2, DEN o 38.5, GB +2.5 –
win
up $120 (12%)
9/18/14 10 pt teaser ATL +4, NO pk, NO o 39.5 –
lose
9/21/14 10 pt teaser MIA +4.5, MIA o 33, PIT +13 –
lose
9/21/14 PIT +150 (moneyline) - win
was down to $43 profit. Instead of giving full chase
I put $43 on PIT and if I lost I would be back to $1,000. I won so
bankroll starts 3 game regression strategy at $1,107.50
3 game regression officially begins
9/23/14 GB -1 – win
9/28/14 NO -3 – lose
10/1/14 NO -10 – lose
No has bye week. I get scared looking at NO's
schedule and decide to take a 10 point teaser to pull me out of the
skid.
10/12/14 10 pt teaser Sea +2, DEN pk, BAL +6.5 - lose
Very scary. Instead of pulling myself out of the
skid I dig the hole deeper. Down to my final tier. I decide to pull
the trigger with the Saints.
10/14/14 NO +3(-120) - win
This is an interesting win in that I placed the bet
early in the week. NO barely covers the spread. The line movement
had them pk by Sunday and they officially lose ATS on goldsheet. I
capture the win and can continue to chase them starting with a fresh
4 tier chase. Bonus!!!
10/21/14 CIN -1.5 – win
I see IND is a strong fade according to system but do
not pull the trigger. I do announce the pick on SBR and it covers.
Bummer!!!
10/26/14 NO -2.5 – win
Line movement allows me to capture 2 wins in this one
chase series.
10/26/14 WAS +9 win
10/28/14 SD +2 lose
11/11/14 10 point teaser: SD pk, NE +13, DEN +0.5
lose ($118.80 @ -120) lose
11/16/14 10 point teaser: SD -0.5, DET +10, NE +13
($300 to win $250) win
*11/17/14 10 point teaser: IND -3.5, SEA +3.5, DEN
+3 ($30 to win $25) wjn
*Final chase to reach 40% for the 2014 season.
11-10Comment - I got +3 for NO in week 7. The line apparently
-
There is a lot of info here. The main takeaway is I hit my target
using the tools I have explained in this thread. I went 11-10 which
puts me just below the 52.4% mark, however I incorporated 10 point
teasers at -120 which would put me in the red had I flat-bet.
I
do not flat bet, I use chasing systems. I used the same principles
in the NBA for 26% and the MLB for 40% in similar threads to this.
If this game is truly random then I have hit a patch of variance that
has smiled upon me. I do not believe that is what happened. This is
a free market and with every loss a team incurred ATS odds tilted in
my favor of winning the next round. That is why chase systems are
the perfect tool to exploit this phenomenon.
The 10 point teasers I displayed were for my own use but the
theory performed phenomenally well. I could have pulled in over 100%
ROI if I had used it. The past couple of years I have shelved this
strategy because I was not sure how the parity amongst teams was
going to affect it. It is the first strategy I developed for the
Pendulum Cycle Theory. It has been very effective for me and I
incorporated some of these plays into this year's efforts.
There are several filters I use for the 10 point teasers:
- Look for any team where the result ATS was more then 18
points off. These are highlighted in red in my chase tracker chart.
Play contrary to that result inside a teaser. - Take the teams with the largest ATS discrepancies.
- Strong teams bouncing back off a loss and fading weak teams
coming off a big win override fades on strong teams or plays on weak
teams. This is playing on crowd psychology. The teams should return
to their publicly expected performance levels. When they do not it
is an anomaly.
- A strong team coming off a bye overrides all other plays.
As for the 3 game regression theory, no team has hit a streak of 7
in a row, losing or winning. There have been some close calls with
NO, and ARI but both streaks ended at 6 games. SD is knocking on the
door as they currently stand at a 6 game losing streak ATS. I have
successfully navigated these dangerous waters so even if SD loses ATS
next week my theory has triumphed.
My back tests have shown me that totals bets can endure much
larger streaks. From my intial observations you may have an edge
betting the overs in the NFL. I would need to tally everything up to
be sure but I have found several streaks that all tend to lean over.
If this stands up it is only a trend and will eventually correct
itself, but I think the problem is that 60 is a psychological
breaking point in the NFL. This is a pass happy league and scores
are sailing past this point, but until Vegas can start hiking the
overs up to this point there very well could be an edge to playing
overs.Comment - Look for any team where the result ATS was more then 18