Keel's Football Parlay System

**fitguy67** · 09-26-14, 01:24 PM

keel, i just cut an pasted this from recent tweedles from a guy with handle "Trend Betting"...

thought they'd be right up your alley
_________________
running numbers on every NFL game since 2008. The significance of the #3 and #7 combined with a few simple parameters is astonishing.

*since 2008, betting on -7.5 home favorites hits at a rate of 59.45%. # increases to 66.66% for primetime games

*since 2008, betting blind on +1 road underdogs hits at 57.75% rate.

*since 2008, betting on +2 dogs (home or away) hit at a rate of 58.33%

*since the 2008, home dogs with a closing spread of +2 went: 16-4-2 ATS +11.6 units 47.9% ROI

**keel44** · 09-26-14, 04:46 PM

Good info, but I don't put too much stock in those numbers.

**keel44** · 09-28-14, 02:38 PM

I am going to add 1 more with the previous loss amount added in

Week 4

Parlay 01-A: Raiders +4.5 with Packers -1.5 (0.56 to win 1.4)
Parlay 02-A: Giants +3.5 with Texans -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.31)
Parlay 03-A: Vikings +4.5 with Saints -2.5 (0.59 to win 1.42)

**keel44** · 09-29-14, 03:38 PM

Week 4

Parlay 01-A: Raiders +4.5 with Packers -1.5 (0.56 to win 1.4)
Parlay 02-A: Giants +3.5 with Texans -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.31)
Parlay 03-A: Vikings +4.5 with Saints -2.5 (0.59 to win 1.42)

0.56 + 0.59 + 10 = 11.15 target divide by 18 = 0.62 unit risk amount going forward and we have a "B" bet upcoming

+8.13 units profit as of right now

**keel44** · 09-30-14, 10:29 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 5

Parlay 04-A: Colts -3.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.62 to win 1.38)

there will be more....

**keel44** · 10-01-14, 01:33 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 5

Parlay 04-A: Colts -3.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.62 to win 1.38)
Parlay 05-A: Giants -4 with Bills +7.5 (0.62 to win 1.47)
Play 02-B: (+6.5)Teaser: Broncos -1 Patriots +8 Bears +9 Packers -2.5 (1.31 to win 3.14)

**keel44** · 10-05-14, 11:07 PM

Week 5

Parlay 04-A: Colts -3.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.62 to win 1.38)
Parlay 05-A: Giants -4 with Bills +7.5 (0.62 to win 1.47)
Play 02-B: (+6.5)Teaser: Broncos -1 Patriots +8 Bears +9 Packers -2.5 (1.31 to win 3.14)

Alright! A clean sweep. +14.12 units so far this NFL season.
Total risk amount: 17.06 units
Return On Investment: 82.76%
Total bets record: 8-8
Average odds per play: +227
1 unit = 2% of total bank
____________________________________

Since July 23, including MLB, the start of my money management system has pulled in a ridiculous 48.91 units. The return on investment is a whopping 77%. The average risk amount per play is a very low 0.54 units.

1 unit equals 2% of the bankroll

All of these plays have been posted on this site and kept track on the spreadsheet.

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-05-14, 11:12 PM

Great job!

**xelemental** · 10-05-14, 11:40 PM

how do you subscribe to a thread? wtf

**keel44** · 10-08-14, 10:24 AM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 6

Parlay 04-B: Bengals -6.5 with Dolphins +3.5 (1.38 to win 3.18)
Parlay 05-B: Redskins +4.5 with Browns -2.5 (1.47 to win 3.50)

**schiman3** · 10-09-14, 07:45 AM

Good Stuff Keel. Took me a while to figure out your bet amounts, but I found out it was due to a typo in your win amount in post #27....Looking at your spreadsheet helped.

One thing to note, your parlays are 8-8, but if I calc correctly, you are about 20-9 on picking single games (incl a dog ML) plus picked a 4 tm 6.5 teaser. 67%+, that's pretty damn good!! So congrats and I wouldn't hide that fact.

Some quick questions, if you don't mind, to understand the system - you put out 2 B Bets so far. Will there also be a "C" coming? If not, why? Also, how do you figure out what you want your "B" or "C" bet to be when you have a few? Gut Feel?

TIA, and thanks for posting - It gets tedious so we appreciate your time.

**keel44** · 10-09-14, 11:01 AM

Thank You for pointing out the typo. It is very minor detail, but unfortunately I cannot go back and edit that post.

Keep in mind when converting into straight bets that I buy points, so the juice would be pretty high.

There will be a "C" bet coming, but not this week. The "C" bets have the most at risk. It is from previous winnings. That is the backbone of the strategy. I figure maybe I would win at least 1 of these "B" bets and then I would have 2 "C" bets at my disposal.

I just make the picks I like. I am equally confident in all my picks. This strategy will take advantage of MY hot streaks as a handicapper. As you pointed out, I am pretty hot right now, so it is really no surprise that I already won a "C" bet and I have another "C" at my disposal. That is the power of this system. There could be many versions of this money management strategy. I think it is the very best in money management.

Feel free to ask any questions.

**keel44** · 10-12-14, 06:44 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 6

Parlay 04-B: Bengals -6.5 with Dolphins +3.5 (1.38 to win 3.18)
Parlay 05-B: Redskins +4.5 with Browns -2.5 (1.47 to win 3.50)

Absolutely unbelievable way to lose the cover!!
No excuses, but I didn't think Palmer or Stanton would play.

I still got my "C" wager in my back pocket for next week.

**keel44** · 10-17-14, 02:10 AM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 7

Parlay 02-C: Ravens -6.5 with Chiefs +4.5 (4.45 to win 10.23)
Parlay 06-A: Jaguars +7.5 with Saints ml (0.62 to win 1.5)
Parlay 07-A: Giants +7.5 with Redskins -5.5 (0.62 to win 1.38)

**schiman3** · 10-19-14, 06:48 PM

Nice hit...thx for posting

**keel44** · 10-19-14, 07:16 PM

Week 7

Parlay 02-C: Ravens -6.5 with Chiefs +4.5 (4.45 to win 10.23)
Parlay 06-A: Jaguars +7.5 with Saints ml (0.62 to win 1.5)
Parlay 07-A: Giants +7.5 with Redskins -5.5 (0.62 to win 1.38)

I had 2 attempts at a 10 unit target and I have hit them both this season.
+20.26 units so far this year
1 unit = 2% of total bank
ROI = 73.6%
Average units risked = 1.31
9-12 record on my plays
Average odds are about +233 or so

**keel44** · 10-21-14, 12:33 AM

I am looking forward for just 1 more crack at 10 more units.

I will be running this strategy for the NBA as well. I don't want to over tax my bankroll, so hopefully I can wrap up in the NFL quickly with +30 units this season. I pulled out of a -15 unit hole in the MLB to profit 20 units using my strategy. That would be really nice if I could get 30 units in the NBA as well.

**the1outlaw** · 10-21-14, 06:29 PM

Keel, I'm selling out with you now...just over 60% my roll is gone for the season (stupid round robins) and I'm not wanting to lose it all soon so I am full on adopting your approach to the craft.

**keel44** · 10-22-14, 02:06 AM

I am glad to hear it outlaw. I would like you and anyone else to fully understand that while my picks have done well, it is the money management that is important here.

Please understand the concept of chasing the presses. That is what its all about. Formulate the scenarios that work for your bankroll and expectations. I have it set perfectly to what I want out of it.

There are countless scenarios you can dream up. I personally love chasing the larger 18 to 1 and greater scenarios. It gives me so many opportunities to get hot as a capper.

Let me know what you want out of your sports betting and I will help you ...... or you can just follow me. Just make sure you follow me exactly.

Let's get some money.

**keel44** · 10-22-14, 08:56 AM

I am going for another 10 unit profit target

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 8

Parlay 01-A: Chargers +8 with Jets -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.30)

that's a start...

**thezzzone** · 10-22-14, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by keel44

WEEK 1

Parlay 01-A: Browns +7.5 with Cowboys +5 (0.56 to win 1.3)
Parlay 02-A: Patriots -3.5 with Seahawks -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.22)
Parlay 03-A: Texans -2.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.56 to win 1.14)
Parlay 04-A: Bills +7.5 with Jets -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.29)

Real tough pill to swallow on the Jets game. Oh well, that is why they have point spreads. I expected to get 2 of these. I got one.

-1.68 gets added to our 10 unit target. So 11.68 divide by 18 = 0.64888.

0.65 unit will be our next parlay risk amount going forward.

First off...i think this is great work but i am a bit of a mental midget. I don't understand where the 1.68 came from?

**Yazworm91** · 10-22-14, 05:34 PM

Keel as always doin a good job. Keep up the good work. Money management is everything hence why I'm down in my own thread.

**thezzzone** · 10-22-14, 09:35 PM

Was staring me in the face the whole time....shhhheessshh. Got it. Duh!!

**keel44** · 10-23-14, 01:40 AM

I do try and make it easy to follow. I am glad your catching on. You can start to see there are many money management possibities.

**keel44** · 10-24-14, 11:47 AM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 8

Parlay 01-A: Chargers +8 with Jets -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.30)

The loss of 0.56 gets added into the target of 10 units. That equals 10.56. Now divide by 18. 0.59 unit will be the wagers going forward.

**keel44** · 10-24-14, 12:03 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 8

Parlay 01-A: Chargers +8 with Jets -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.30)
Parlay 02-A: Jets -2.5 with Panthers Under 45.5 (0.59 to win 1.34)
Parlay 03-A: Dolphins -6.5 with Chiefs -6.5 (0.59 to win 1.31)

**keel44** · 10-26-14, 03:18 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 8

Parlay 01-A: Chargers +8 with Jets -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.30)
Parlay 02-A: Jets -2.5 with Panthers Under 45.5 (0.59 to win 1.34)
Parlay 03-A: Dolphins -6.5 with Chiefs -6.5 (0.59 to win 1.31)

I got one of them. +20.42 units on the year as of right now.

**the1outlaw** · 10-26-14, 03:24 PM

I'm tailing so I'm with you on this one. Jets butchered the other one...can't believe they are in that bad of a mess where a beat up Bills team comes in and destroys them.

I missed on two B plays yesterday on the experiment I am running with your system. Kind of a modified version where I am looking to get at least 2.5 to 1 on a 2 team play. Most have been 3 to 1 though. It's similar to your baseball system.

**keel44** · 10-26-14, 04:01 PM

What is your target amount, Outlaw? You should have plenty of opportunities throughout the year.

**the1outlaw** · 10-26-14, 10:30 PM

20 units on my chase... i am after 12 on yours. I hve just over 40 units left to work with. I think that is doable for both.

**keel44** · 10-26-14, 10:33 PM

That is quite aggressive, but it does seem doable.

Good luck to ya

**keel44** · 10-28-14, 10:21 AM

I will be running a NBA version of my money management strategy.

Keel's NBA Parlay System

**keel44** · 10-30-14, 10:03 AM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 9

Parlay 04-A: Panthers +3.5 with Bengals -11.5 (0.62 to win 1.47)

more later.....

**keel44** · 10-31-14, 01:11 AM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 9

Parlay 04-A: Panthers +3.5 with Bengals -11.5 (0.62 to win 1.47)
Parlay 03-B: 49ers -9.5 with Chargers OVER 44.5 (1.31 to win 3.09)

**keel44** · 11-02-14, 12:41 PM

All lines are from www.sportsbook.ag
I buy points. Make sure the parlays pay at least 2-1

Week 9

Parlay 04-A: Panthers +3.5 with Bengals -11.5 (0.62 to win 1.47)
Parlay 03-B: 49ers -9.5 with Chargers OVER 44.5 (1.31 to win 3.09)
Parlay 05-A: Cardinals pk with Cardinals UNDER 45.5 (0.65 to win 1.69)