1. 10-28-14 10:01 AM #1
    keel44
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    Keel's NBA Parlay System

    Here is how this system will work:

    I will be try to win 3 consecutive parlays that pay a minimum of 2.5 to 1. I will be pressing the winnings only from the 1st parlay as the 2nd parlay. Then I press the winnings and risk amount into the 3rd parlay. If I am successful at this, it will be a net profit of a minimum 30.63 to 1. Here is a visual:

    Risk 1 to win 2.5
    Risk 2.5 to win 6.25
    Risk 8.75 to win 21.88

    8.75 + 21.88 = 30.63 Units profit

    I will be chasing this scenario. I take the amount I want to profit and divide by 30.63. Any 1st parlay attempt loss will be added to my target amount and will be divided by 30.63.

    This is a chase system and a press system all in one. I only chase the "A" bets and the "B" and "C" bets use previous winnings.

    The idea is if I get hot enough as a capper, I will surge ahead in profits to cover all previous losses. The bets rise very quickly after wins, and the bets rise slowly after losses. I need to get hot enough before my bankroll runs out, but I will have many many opportunities to get that done.

    I have had great success so far using this methodology in MLB and NFL. I have documented threads in these sports. I also use the spreadsheet.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ay-system.html

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...action-p8.html starting on post #252

    http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
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  2. 10-28-14 10:19 AM #2
    keel44
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    My profit target amount will be 10 units. Divide 10 by 30.63 = 0.33 unit will be my starting risk amount.

    1 unit equals 2% of total bank. That means I have a 50 unit bankroll to get this done. Any bets must pay a minimum of 2.5 to 1.


    October 28

    Parlay 01-A: Mavs +4 with Pelicans -10.5 (0.33 to win 0.84)
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  3. 10-28-14 12:39 PM #3
    the1outlaw
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    I'm on board...Let's get it! I got Mavs +3.5 and Pelicans -9.5...I think Mavs win outright and considered them on the ML with this one but we'll take the points.

    I have a C play stored up now from my own side chase. Considering over in tonight's baseball with the over in the Mavs game...still not sure. I really want to be careful with whatever I take. I'm 90% sure the baseball over will be part of it though.
    Last edited by the1outlaw; 10-28-14 at 12:45 PM.
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  4. 10-28-14 04:23 PM #4
    thezzzone
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    Just wondering why the increase to 2.5X from 2X on NFL? Good Luck Guys!!!
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  5. 10-28-14 04:35 PM #5
    the1outlaw
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    It may have something to do with buying the points in the NFL which is something Keel likes to do. My book doesn't give me that option on parlays so mine is usually 2.5 to 1 on the NFL lines although that may burn me eventually.
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  6. 10-29-14 12:53 AM #6
    keel44
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    In the MLB I go for a 48 to 1 scenario
    NBA is a 30.63 to 1
    NFL is a 18 to 1

    The reason for this has to do with how many games each sport has. I need to wrap things up much more quickly in the NFL as opposed to daily baseball action with every team playing. That is why the increase from 2 to 1 parlays in football to 2.5 to 1 parlays for basketball. I need to be more aggressive in the chasing for the NFL, but a more likelihood of winning an easier parlay. I am looking for balance. You can customize any ol' way you like.
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  7. 10-29-14 10:16 AM #7
    keel44
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    October 28

    Parlay 01-A: Mavs +4 with Pelicans -10.5 (0.33 to win 0.84)

    great win ... movin' on
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  8. 10-29-14 10:47 AM #8
    keel44
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    October 29

    Parlay 02-A: Raptors -4.5 with Blazers -8.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)
    Parlay 03-A: Knicks +4.5 with Warriors -4 (0.33 to win 0.86)
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  9. 10-29-14 01:20 PM #9
    the1outlaw
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    Locked and loaded tonight...Let's get 2 more B plays!

    I missed my C play from my side chase that is basically spanning 4 sports right now. I needed 2 points in the final 50 seconds of the Mavs game and it would have hit. Argh!
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  10. 10-29-14 01:34 PM #10
    lordlord2323
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    I'm with you ! :P
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  11. 10-29-14 02:55 PM #11
    thezzzone
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    Love it..a bit of art a bit of science


    Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
    In the MLB I go for a 48 to 1 scenario
    NBA is a 30.63 to 1
    NFL is a 18 to 1

    The reason for this has to do with how many games each sport has. I need to wrap things up much more quickly in the NFL as opposed to daily baseball action with every team playing. That is why the increase from 2 to 1 parlays in football to 2.5 to 1 parlays for basketball. I need to be more aggressive in the chasing for the NFL, but a more likelihood of winning an easier parlay. I am looking for balance. You can customize any ol' way you like.
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  12. 10-30-14 09:34 AM #12
    keel44
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    October 29

    Parlay 02-A: Raptors -4.5 with Blazers -8.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)
    Parlay 03-A: Knicks +4.5 with Warriors -4 (0.33 to win 0.86)

    0.33 gets added to the target of 10 units
    10.33 divide by 30.63 = 0.34
    0.34 is the new risk amount going forward
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  13. 10-30-14 09:51 AM #13
    keel44
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    October 30

    Parlay 04-A: Mavs -10.5 with Pistons +4.5 (0.34 to win 0.88)
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  14. 10-30-14 10:44 PM #14
    the1outlaw
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    Won a C play tonight in my side chase that puts me at +17 units for the chase. I'm closing it out there. I pressed with the 2 B's I had stored tonight or it could have been better. Lost both of those...

    I'm trying to find the flaw in this system and haven't yet...get hot and win big. Lose many times over and only lose a little. I now see the value in storing the B's and C's for your better spots.
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  15. 10-31-14 12:47 AM #15
    keel44
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    Don't store them too long, outlaw. If you continue to chase, and lose some "A" bets, it will drag down your target amount. I lost site of that earlier in the NFL. My target was 10, and after my C win, I only had a little over 7 units profit.

    All of my bets I am really sure about......no forcing of plays.

    Good job on your hot stretch....that is what its all about.
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  16. 10-31-14 12:49 PM #16
    keel44
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    October 30

    Parlay 04-A: Mavs -10.5 with Pistons +4.5 (0.34 to win 0.88)

    A tough loss here with the Pistons.
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  17. 10-31-14 01:32 PM #17
    keel44
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    October 31

    Parlay 01-B: Blazers -5.5 with Pacers UNDER 184.5 (0.84 to win 2.18)
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  18. 11-01-14 10:12 AM #18
    keel44
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    October 31

    Parlay 01-B: Blazers -5.5 with Pacers UNDER 184.5 (0.84 to win 2.18)

    No increase in the chase amount because this bet was made with previous winnings. I need to make better picks.
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  19. 11-01-14 10:37 AM #19
    keel44
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    November 1

    Parlay 02-B: Suns -2 with Pistons -3 (0.86 to win 2.21)
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  20. 11-02-14 11:26 AM #20
    keel44
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    November 1

    Parlay 02-B: Suns -2 with Pistons -3 (0.86 to win 2.21)

    O.K. I have lost 2 "A" bets. 0.67 unit gets added to our profit target of 10. 10.67 divide by 30.63 = 0.35
    That is our unit risk amount going forward.
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  21. 11-02-14 11:36 AM #21
    keel44
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    November 2

    Parlay 05-A: Heat -2 with Knicks -3.5 (0.35 to win 0.91)
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  22. 11-02-14 09:15 PM #22
    keel44
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    November 2

    Parlay 05-A: Heat -2 with Knicks -3.5 (0.35 to win 0.91)

    Carmelo misses a free throw at the end. These things happen, but its tough when you watch it happen in real time.

    0.36 risk amount going forward
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  23. 11-03-14 11:01 AM #23
    keel44
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    November 3

    Parlay 06-A: Clippers -9 with Rockets -10 (0.36 to win 0.94)
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  24. 11-04-14 12:09 AM #24
    keel44
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    November 3


     Parlay 06-A: Clippers -9 with Rockets -10 (0.36 to win 0.94)

    It is frustrating. I am definitely not seeing things clearly right now.
    Last edited by keel44; 11-04-14 at 10:50 AM.
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  25. 11-04-14 10:57 AM #25
    keel44
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    November 4

    Parlay 07-A: Heat -1.5 with Bucks +3.5 (0.37 to win 0.96)
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  26. 11-04-14 01:14 PM #26
    jwgold
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    first post

    Keel, I have been following since the beginning of football season. I decided to open an account to tell you that I think your money management concept seems really sound to me. I can see that it takes a great deal of patience but have no doubt as to the returns in the long run. Continued good luck.
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  27. 11-05-14 12:53 AM #27
    keel44
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwgold View Post
    Keel, I have been following since the beginning of football season. I decided to open an account to tell you that I think your money management concept seems really sound to me. I can see that it takes a great deal of patience but have no doubt as to the returns in the long run. Continued good luck.
    Thanks for the comments. The way I see it, in the extreme case you could cash 10 units in a month, but if things go well, you might get 30. I just hope to avoid a horribly long drought.
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  28. 11-05-14 12:56 AM #28
    FlyinAir
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    Checkin in, good luck rest of the way 44!



    +1.
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  29. 11-05-14 10:43 AM #29
    keel44
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    November 4

    Parlay 07-A: Heat -1.5 with Bucks +3.5 (0.37 to win 0.96)

    O.K. I am now down 1.75 units

    1.75 + 10 = 11.75 / 30.63 = 0.38
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  30. 11-05-14 10:56 AM #30
    keel44
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    November 5

    Parlay 08-A: Suns pk with Kings -4 (0.38 to win 0.99)
    Parlay 09-A: Warriors -4.5 with Bobcats -2 (0.38 to win 0.99)
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  31. 11-06-14 10:57 AM #31
    keel44
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    November 5

    Parlay 08-A: Suns pk with Kings -4 (0.38 to win 0.99)
    Parlay 09-A: Warriors -4.5 with Bobcats -2 (0.38 to win 0.99)
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  32. 11-06-14 11:00 AM #32
    keel44
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    November 6

    Parlay 10-A: Spurs +4.5 with Blazers UNDER 206.5 (0.39 to win 1.01)
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  33. 11-07-14 12:41 PM #33
    keel44
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    November 6

    Parlay 10-A: Spurs +4.5 with Blazers UNDER 206.5 (0.39 to win 1.01)

    Should've known the Spurs wouldn't take it seriously.
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  34. 11-07-14 01:06 PM #34
    keel44
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    November 7

    Parlay 11-A: Pistons -4.5 with Kings +5 (0.41 to win 1.07)
    Parlay 09-B: Celtics -5.5 with Grizzlies -7.5 (0.99 to win 2.57)
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  35. 11-07-14 09:11 PM #35
    keel44
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    November 7

    Parlay 11-A: Pistons -4.5 with Kings +5 (0.41 to win 1.07)
    Parlay 09-B: Celtics -5.5 with Grizzlies -7.5 (0.99 to win 2.57)

    Man, what a bunch of crap. -2.93 units overall now...long way to go, but this is frustrating

    0.42 risk amount going forward.
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