Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies

[TensaZangetsu]

Nice job... How about colleg info's

[SportsLockPicks]

so this means a point spread of 5 points is the most pushed number?

[square1]

Can you explain the methodology in the spread/ML conversion table & tool? Unless I'm missing something, it doesn't follow immediately from either the push frequencies or the MOVs. Or is this just a summary of how often teams that had a spread of X +/- 2 won outright? Thanks.

[Astig5150]

Hey all, Im a ROOKIE here. I been looking for a solution and perhaps someone can help me. I notice Ganchrow knows his shit! I am looking for an Excel Spread Sheet version on calculating point spread and money line that I can tweak and convert it into a Software Application.

My question has always been how does the "ODDMAKERS" come up with -+ 3 or -+0.5 and -+110 or -+240.

Can someone explain this? I am at Yahoo Messenger as well. I want to develop an application that is unique (on it's way) but my question is point spread. Where the hell did they get that number? Moneyline, I can careless about.

Anyone can help?

[Wrecktangle]

Astig5150: I think unless someone from LVSS speaks up, all you're going to get are opinions. Here's mine: in the NFL it's a combination of market forces and the linemaker's hold prediction % for each situation. Naturally it varies from book to book. I contend that "it is all market forces" holds about 80% of the time...and there have been several examples to show that market forces have not been dominate over the years.

[Wrecktangle]

Back to the original point of this thread made by Ganchrow: if you base your data set on anything earlier than 1994, your freqs will be off. The NFL substantially changed with 3s coming in more often and it took several years for the coaches to adjust. Why? Going for 2 to tie. With a tie, the most likely outcome is an FG to win about 80% of the time.

[stardvd555]

it's intersting
thank you

[sportscapper]

Good info guy.

[dj80d]

can some one please tell me what im looking at im not understanding what all the numbers are about

[Indecent]

Is anyone else having problems reading the charts as posted? I tried on Firefox and IE, neither are displaying properly.

[yeahwhat]

hi guys, ive been reading forums on this site for a long time now but only recently became a member. this seems to be a great post, but can someone please care to explain what all the codes and numbers actually mean on this topic?

is it suppose to be read in microsoft excel or something?

[Sforz]

Dear yeahwhat,

Welcome to SBR!

Those 'codes' mean nothing.

Please visit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

That half point calculator should supply you with all the data you need regarding push frequencies.


If you would like to discuss this topic further, don't hesitate to visit http://mysbrforum.com/chat during normal chat hours 8:30pm-1:30am eastern standard time.

Thanks again and enjoy your stay at SBR!

Regards,

Sforz

[Jsmooth411]

i never bet when the line is three or seven it just doesnt make sense!

[yorksdicks]

Nice info!!

[statnerds]

If i missed in reading through, please forgive (damn newbies), but what is the sample size here?

i saw 1994 mentioned, is the data from then on?

i tried the half-point calculator and must saw i love it. but couldn't find anything on the size of the database.

thanks

[charto911]

Hello, I am new to the site and just wanted to join in on the convo. Important question who do you use for your odds? I've been using this for my NFL Football Odds what do you guys think anything better?

[DOMINATER]

this is a bunch of bull.

[statnerds]

If i missed in reading through, please forgive (damn newbies), but what is the sample size here?

i saw 1994 mentioned, is the data from then on?

i tried the half-point calculator and must saw i love it. but couldn't find anything on the size of the database.

hey fukkhead, read the entire thread. sample size and date range are both listed right in the very first post of the thread. fukk you are dense.

get the fukk out of SBR douchebag

[LJG1118]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Spread </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 0 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 699 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 1 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,213 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.44% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,703 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.07% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,954 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 9.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 4 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,019 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.32% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.28% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 5 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,207 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.22% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 6 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,160 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.39% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 7 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,918 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.16% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 8 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,845 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.06% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 9 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,447 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.04% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 10 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 917 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.71% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.80% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 11 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 793 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.40% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 12 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 610 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 13 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 397 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.76% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 14 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 311 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.18% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.50% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 15 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 258 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.77% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 16 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 146 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.74% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 17 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 84 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.58% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.95% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 18 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 57 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.74% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.75% </td> </tr> </table>
<hr><span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>

• <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.</span>
• <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.</span>
• <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>

Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

This is really fantastic, I was wondering if Stanford Wong's numbers for frequency pushes have been updated? I see you have a "half point calculator" what years numbers is that based on? I'd really love to see updated NFL numbers after they moved back extra point. Any help appreciated.