Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies

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  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011
    #1
    Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies
    For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

    <style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Spread </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
    </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 0 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 699 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 1 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,213 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.44% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,703 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.07% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,954 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 9.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 4 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,019 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.32% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.28% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 5 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,207 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.22% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 6 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,160 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.39% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 7 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,918 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.16% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 8 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,845 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.06% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 9 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,447 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.04% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 10 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 917 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.71% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.80% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 11 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 793 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.40% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 12 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 610 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 13 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 397 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.76% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 14 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 311 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.18% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.50% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 15 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 258 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.77% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 16 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 146 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.74% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 17 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 84 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.58% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.95% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 18 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 57 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.74% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.75% </td> </tr> </table>
    <hr><span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
    • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.</span>
    • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.</span>
    • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>



    Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies
    Tags: None
    • Don Dollars
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-04-06
      • 152
      #2
      That is interesting. Thank you!
        Comment
        • scottyy11
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-08-06
          • 693
          #3
          do you have the nubers for college?
            Comment
            • darkghost
              SBR MVP
              • 09-19-05
              • 1721
              #4
              Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

              I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.
                Comment
                • Ganchrow
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-28-05
                  • 5011
                  #5
                  Originally posted by scottyy11
                  do you have the nubers for college?
                  See the College Football forum.
                    Comment
                    • rm18
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-20-05
                      • 22291
                      #6
                      Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
                        Comment
                        • Ganchrow
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-28-05
                          • 5011
                          #7
                          Originally posted by rm18
                          a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
                          Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.
                            Comment
                            • ivyconniver
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 09-07-06
                              • 267
                              #8
                              Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

                              I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
                                Comment
                                • moses millsap
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-25-05
                                  • 8289
                                  #9
                                  Thanks for posting this Ganch.
                                    Comment
                                    • Ganchrow
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-28-05
                                      • 5011
                                      #10
                                      Originally posted by ivyconniver
                                      Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

                                      I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
                                      I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
                                        Comment
                                        • ivyconniver
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 09-07-06
                                          • 267
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by Ganchrow
                                          I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
                                          Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
                                            Comment
                                            • Ganchrow
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-28-05
                                              • 5011
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by ivyconniver
                                              Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
                                              Code:
                                              |MOV|	Games	%
0	8	0.142%
1	232	4.108%
2	204	3.613%
3	878	15.548%
4	303	5.366%
5	177	3.134%
6	315	5.578%
7	478	8.465%
8	152	2.692%
9	99	1.753%
10	336	5.950%
11	187	3.311%
12	90	1.594%
13	176	3.117%
14	280	4.958%
15	94	1.665%
16	114	2.019%
17	222	3.931%
18	116	2.054%
19	70	1.240%
20	140	2.479%
21	145	2.568%
22	53	0.939%
23	64	1.133%
24	116	2.054%
25	56	0.992%
26	35	0.620%
27	94	1.665%
28	86	1.523%
29	18	0.319%
30	29	0.514%
31	65	1.151%
32	30	0.531%
33	14	0.248%
34	38	0.673%
35	32	0.567%
36	9	0.159%
37	14	0.248%
38	26	0.460%
39	6	0.106%
40	2	0.035%
41	12	0.213%
42	11	0.195%
43	3	0.053%
44	3	0.053%
45	4	0.071%
46	3	0.053%
48	3	0.053%
49	2	0.035%
51	1	0.018%
54	1	0.018%
55	1	0.018%
Total	5647	100.000%
                                              1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.
                                                Comment
                                                • Justin7
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-31-06
                                                  • 8577
                                                  #13
                                                  Ganchrow-

                                                  The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.

                                                  do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ganchrow
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-28-05
                                                      • 5011
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by Justin7
                                                      do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
                                                      As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • patswin
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-05-06
                                                          • 1794
                                                          #15
                                                          Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Ganchrow
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 08-28-05
                                                              • 5011
                                                              #16
                                                              Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

                                                              For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

                                                              <style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Total </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
                                                              </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 29 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 22 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 30 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 64 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.03% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 6.25% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 31 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 145 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.97% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 32 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 334 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.52% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.90% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 33 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 565 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.80% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.72% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 34 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 860 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.57% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.91% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 35 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,327 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.37% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.88% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 36 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,766 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.93% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 37 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,921 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.48% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.58% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 38 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,113 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.70% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 39 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,190 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.26% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.51% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 40 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,046 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.35% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 41 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,978 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.43% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 42 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,957 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.43% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 43 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,814 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.65% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 44 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,532 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.45% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.13% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 45 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,312 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.58% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 46 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,086 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.42% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.93% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 47 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 757 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.73% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.23% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 48 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 548 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.67% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 49 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 366 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.61% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.37% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 50 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 223 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.25% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 51 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 137 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.44% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.92% </td> </tr> </table>
                                                              <hr> <span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
                                                              • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (data from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.</span>
                                                              • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.</span>
                                                              • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Ganchrow
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 08-28-05
                                                                  • 5011
                                                                  #17
                                                                  NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts

                                                                  <style> .ats { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } </style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=30> <tr> <td>At Even Odds: <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>Spread</td> <td class=ats align=left>Prob.</td> <td class=ats align=left>ML</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>50.00%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±100.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>50.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±100.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>51.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±104.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>52.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±108.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>53.02%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±112.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>53.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±116.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>58.78%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±142.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>62.22%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±164.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>63.84%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±176.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>64.75%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±183.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>65.94%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±193.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>66.56%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±199.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>68.53%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±217.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>69.44%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±227.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>73.20%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±273.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>74.58%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±293.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>75.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±314.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>76.27%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±321.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>77.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±335.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>77.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±340.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>80.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±416.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>81.45%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±439.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>83.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±498.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>83.65%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±511.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>84.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±551.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>84.82%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±558.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>86.83%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±659.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>87.13%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±677.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>90.34%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±934.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>90.68%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±972.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>91.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1128.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>91.96%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1144.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>93.63%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1468.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>93.74%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1497.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>96.61%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±2850.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>96.71%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±2940.5</td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> At -110: <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>Spread</td> <td class=ats align=right>Prob.</td> <td class=ats align=right>Fave ML</td> <td class=ats align=right>Dog ML</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>PK -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>50.00%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>50.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>-109.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>51.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-115.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>-105.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>52.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-120.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>-100.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>53.02%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-125.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+103.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>53.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-129.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+106.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>58.78%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-160.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+131.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>62.22%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-187.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+152.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>63.84%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-201.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+163.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>64.75%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-210.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+170.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>65.94%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-223.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+180.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>66.56%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-230.3</td> <td class=ats align=right>+185.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>68.53%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-254.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+203.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>69.44%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-266.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+212.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>73.20%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-311.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+260.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>74.58%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-357.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+275.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>75.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-387.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+295.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>76.27%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-397.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+302.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>77.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-418.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+315.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>77.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-425.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+320.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>80.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-544.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+393.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>81.45%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-581.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+414.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>83.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-684.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+471.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>83.65%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-708.7</td> <td class=ats align=right>+483.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>84.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-782.8</td> <td class=ats align=right>+521.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>84.82%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-797.7</td> <td class=ats align=right>+528.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>86.83%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1006.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+624.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>87.13%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1046.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+641.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>90.34%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1765.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+887.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>90.68%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1899.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>+924.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>91.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-2553.3</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1072.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>91.96%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-2632.6</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1087.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>93.63%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-5121.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1397.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>93.74%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-5466.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1424.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>96.61%</td> <td class=ats align=right></td> <td class=ats align=right></td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>96.71%</td> <td class=ats align=right></td> <td class=ats align=right></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table>
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • brewer
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 04-07-07
                                                                      • 10
                                                                      #18
                                                                      this stuff is impressive. glad i joined the site.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • Don Dollars
                                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                                          • 09-04-06
                                                                          • 152
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Thank you for posting this. Excellent information.
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • Scorpion
                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                              • 09-04-05
                                                                              • 7797
                                                                              #20
                                                                              The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
                                                                              why??

                                                                              wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • Ganchrow
                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                  • 08-28-05
                                                                                  • 5011
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by Scorpion
                                                                                  why??

                                                                                  wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??
                                                                                  No. Because sample sizes are so small, we look at a larger radius in order to effectively increase the data set. This is a standard technique for this sort of analysis.

                                                                                  See Wong, Chapters 13-14.
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • swifty
                                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                      • 02-22-06
                                                                                      • 672
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      WOW didn't know that info. Thank you for posting this. Excellent information
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • Skidcom
                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                          • 11-17-06
                                                                                          • 1796
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Agreed.thanx for the info and the sleepless nights trying to figure out what to do with it
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • madsiz
                                                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                                                              • 09-26-07
                                                                                              • 21
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • Ganchrow
                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                  • 08-28-05
                                                                                                  • 5011
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Originally posted by madsiz
                                                                                                  great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?
                                                                                                  Thanks.

                                                                                                  You might want to check out my Half-Point Calculator.
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • sharktank1
                                                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                      • 09-17-07
                                                                                                      • 970
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Outstanding info. Thanx!
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • Skidcom
                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                          • 11-17-06
                                                                                                          • 1796
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          That 17 frequency is very interesting considering the Pats game. Ordinarily I wouldn't recommend teasers at such a high number...maybe it is worth it
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • Ganchrow
                                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                              • 08-28-05
                                                                                                              • 5011
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              The 17 figure of 8.70% is for N=46. That's a very sample size, corresponding to a standard error of about 4.20%. I'd personally not embark on major changes in my own strategy based on so small a dataset.

                                                                                                              The updated data in my Half-Point Calculator gives a figure of 4.55% (with a standard error of 2.60%), a much more realistic figure.
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • babytyger
                                                                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                  • 11-02-07
                                                                                                                  • 118
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Monday Night Football: Baltimore and the under
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • CrapsMyWay
                                                                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                                                                      • 11-03-07
                                                                                                                      • 66
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Thanks for the info...Good Luck!
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • babytyger
                                                                                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                          • 11-02-07
                                                                                                                          • 118
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Play money line for Jacksonville!!!!!!! They will win easily!!!!!!!!!
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • Poker_Beast
                                                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                              • 09-14-06
                                                                                                                              • 6544
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Thanks for the post!

                                                                                                                              GO GIANTS in the SB!!!
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • INVEGA MAN
                                                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                  • 01-30-08
                                                                                                                                  • 6794
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Very interesting
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • TodaysAction
                                                                                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                                                                                      • 08-01-08
                                                                                                                                      • 12762
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Others have already said this but never-the-less, thank you for posting this information and looking forward to seeing it updated week-by-week.
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • TensaZangetsu
                                                                                                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                                          • 08-05-08
                                                                                                                                          • 118
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Nice job.. how about college info... thanks
                                                                                                                                          "Sometimes I remember it one way. Sometimes another. If I'm going to have a past, I prefer it to be multiple choice!"
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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