Bridgejumber - year 23

[Grinder12000]

Correct - originally the system was just going against public opinion but with more and more stats over the years and tweaks there were other factors going on.

So while the original premise is correct and lots easier to explain there are some other things. For a long time this system did not actually start until teams had 4 games but then we (drinking gambling buddies) started to put some big restrictions on the difference between 2 teams and started with week 3 instead of 4.

N.O./ Dallas is a perfect example. If both teams had 4 games under their belts it would be a play.

"A" picks are all Home Favorites playing bad. Teams that are good but playing poorly AT HOME have a huge psychological boost and want to really show the home town fans they ARE good! Packers/Bears. Packers at home I would be betting the farm on the Packers!

BTW - I have an NBA system that is my real bread and butter and I HATE the NBA! It's all about numbers :-) It was a chase but won 64% last year in 170 games playing the final 2 or 3 games of a chase. Post #18 is where it gets a little more clear what I'm doing.

[boonie26]

Question?

Grinder,

While I understand that Miami is no New England or Green Bay and Oakland is no Kansas City or Chicago, did you consider going against the Dolphins as a cold team on the road?

Boonie

[alexknyc]

Miami game is in London so normal road/home issues don't necessarily apply.

[boonie26]

Miami in London

My bad.

[Grinder12000]

The thing with Miami is that they are playing Oakland who also are not doing great! The difference between the two is not wide enough.

One thing about that London game and maybe someone can find out - is WHEN did each team arrive in London. Means a lot. The team that goes over EARLY has a huge advantage. I think it was Minnesota/Pittsburgh last year and I THINK Minnesota go there early and won with ease.

There are 3 games this year in London.

Detroit/ Atlanta Oct 26
Dallas/Jax Nov 9th (maybe more Dallas fans in London??)

[Grinder12000]

I see Jax dropped to +12.5 on 5 Dimes - now I GOTTA wait. Still a good pick

[2daBank]

The thing with Miami is that they are playing Oakland who also are not doing great! The difference between the two is not wide enough.

One thing about that London game and maybe someone can find out - is WHEN did each team arrive in London. Means a lot. The team that goes over EARLY has a huge advantage. I think it was Minnesota/Pittsburgh last year and I THINK Minnesota go there early and won with ease.

There are 3 games this year in London.

Detroit/ Atlanta Oct 26
Dallas/Jax Nov 9th (maybe more Dallas fans in London??)

oak went early..it seems it happens bout every time but i dont think it means much, last year yes minny went early and won i think but dont think that is something that has really held up..i could be wrong tho, i make a habit of avoiding this gm so dont pay a lot of attention..oak has also traveled a great deal early on this season, logging like 16,000+ miles..

[Grinder12000]

Well - as we all jump off the Bandwagon lets really pull for KC.

Looks like Green Bay might be a 62-17 "A' pick next week.

[Afterimage]

We're all good tonight! No worries. You know we're going to end up ahead by the end of the season.

Green Bay an A play? After that dismantling of Chicago? Doesn't seem ugly enough.

[Grinder12000]

What will be ugly is going against Kansas City for a while!

Hold of on any Packer game - the point spread is actually too high for an "A" game and stats show the AWAY team covers 67% of the time. But with the QB being hurt. . . . . . tough call.

[Grinder12000]

San Francisco is an "A" pick at -6.5 to -7

"A" picks are 62-17 or 72-23 if you count another section that is 10-5 (only 15 picks so I'm not sure I should count them yet).

Maybe one more "A" pick but it would be Minnesota (NOT The Packers) - but waiting for the QB situation to fix itself.

More Wednesday night. Get the -6.5 though in 49ers.

[dalogester]

lets hope 49ers show up!

[Grinder12000]

PICKS - 5Dimes numbers

1-2 this year

Careful "A" pick

Minnesota +8

"A" pick

San Francisco -6
Tennessee -2.5

"C" pick

Jacksonville +6

[dalogester]

Careful A picks are still plays right? lol

[Grinder12000]

Careful A picks are still plays right? lol

Oh yea - just more like an A- I guess. Just not a lot of numbers to warrant a full on "A". 10-5 over all

I can not remember ever having 3 "A" picks in one week. It's been a strange year already! I think there was ONE "A" pick all last year!

[Grinder12000]

Never good when the very reason you are playing ON a team in a system does not play and you are stuck with a QB that us red meat to a lion.

[dalogester]

Yeah, seemed like something to think about moving forward. Needless to say, its just one game. Lets get em this weekend!

[Afterimage]

I still have nightmares about last season's San Fran, "A" pick loss. 49ers owe us money! Hopefully they show up.

Two "A" picks last season, the SF loss and then we came right back with a NY Giants win!

[Grinder12000]

WOW - 0-4 she's dead or dieing! So close yet, so far. A pick 6 and losses by only a few points!
UNLESS - you had S.F. -4. Who had what on this play - what's the call!

I mean SERIOUSLY -

We lost the Tennessee game because of the largest road comeback in NFL history? COME ON MAN!!!
We lost because the 49ers could not make a catch in the endzone at the end of the game. ??????
We lost because of a pick 6 in the 4th quarter sigh

[dalogester]

just a bunch of bad beats... if locker didnt get hurt tennessee was going to crush the browns...

[dalogester]

I'm not giving up on the season Grinder. Let's get it this weekend! if theres any plays that is!

[2daBank]

WOW - 0-4 she's dead or dieing! So close yet, so far. A pick 6 and losses by only a few points!
UNLESS - you had S.F. -4. Who had what on this play - what's the call!

I mean SERIOUSLY -

We lost the Tennessee game because of the largest road comeback in NFL history? COME ON MAN!!!
We lost because the 49ers could not make a catch in the endzone at the end of the game. ??????
We lost because of a pick 6 in the 4th quarter sigh

maybe not dead or dying.. you lost ten gm cause you didnt wait for line to flip, won if you bet them late.. lost sf cause against played a bad number..they all blow but you could have had numbers that were winners on a few. the jags came down to even tho steelers defense trash these days their scheme has always caused rookie qbs a insane amount of problems.. i dont think any were bad plays tho so i wouldnt lose hope. gl moving forward..

[Grinder12000]

PICKS WEEK 3 (or 6)

1-6 OR 2-4-1 depending on when you placed wagers!

Before I get to the picks a word about the lines. When compiling the stats I have always used closing lines. The problem with ALL handicappers that post plays is that not everyone gets closing lines and so forth.

Personally last week I was 0-4 because I had to get picks in before a vacation to northern Wisconsin (Door County) and internet is spotty up there. My best advice is to wait. Remember these are typically games that are duds and no one wants to play (in theory).

OH - stopped by Lambeau Field on the way home.

"C" (374-311 54.6%)
Tampa Bay Home Dog +3.5
Oakland Home Dog +7

Not much to work with this week. Satan is taking a rest.

Do not play NYJets as Home Dogs in the +9 area do not do well (37-32)

[dalogester]

gl all

[dalogester]

i actually like oakland a lot this weekend.

[Grinder12000]

PICKS WEEK 4 (or 6)

2-7 OR 3-5-1 depending on when you placed wagers!

"A" picks (weird year)

Pittsburgh -3.5
San Diego -4.0

"C"
Jacksonville +5.5
N.O. +3.0
Oakland +3.5
Tennessee +5.5

[boonie26]

Questions for Week 7

Grinder,

I get Pittsburgh as an A play. I get Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Oakland as C plays. I really don't understand San Diego or Tennessee. Any observations on the NY Jets, Atlanta, or the NY Giants? Thanks for sharing.

Boonie26

[dalogester]

good luck this week grinder.

[Grinder12000]

I like the Pats by 2! :-)

Tennessee vs. Washington - Tennessee lost 4 in a row by 19 19 19 and 16 (or something like that) Washington has had one nightmare game so while both teams are cold Tennessee is colder

Sadn Diego and KC are sort of the same type of game but to hot teams with one being hotter.

[Grinder12000]

Thought we had it going pretty good after 3 games - Up to Pitts tonight!

[Grinder12000]

PICKS WEEK 5 (or 7)

6-9 (line posted) OR 7-7-1 (closing lines)

Not many good games this week - all of these are 55.42% range so . . . .what can I say.


Cincinnati -1.0
Jacksonville +6.0
New Orleans -1.0
Tampa Bay -3.0

[dalogester]

gl this week

[Grinder12000]

Picks system week 6

8-11 posted lines 9-9-1 closing lines

DAMN YOU Minnesota - really? fumble recovery for 6 in OT? sigh That is 4 nasty losses

Only 2 "D" games - if you want to play the opposite play Cleveland "D" picks are 2-7 this year so Cleveland would be the play

Stand down - going nowhere this week - it happens

[Grinder12000]

Picks system week 7

Well this is boring - 5 games which are proven 50% so zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I think Bridgejumper is finely we are in a slow death mode. Still keeping track!!

[dalogester]

i know youre really busy working hard on the NBA system (which i appreciate a lot!) but do you have anything for this week in the NFL bud?