Bridgejumber - year 23

[Grinder12000]

It's about that time of year to dust off the ol' Bridgejumper system.

I've been posting these plays in one form or another for 22 years and while last year was a blah 22-22 year I can say that if you follow this system you MIGHT lose a few units in a year OR you can hit 60% ATS. The upside is far greater then the down side.

This is the record after 22 years of real wagering - no back testing numbers are included.

System - W / L / Pct / Last years W-L

A	62	17	78.48%	1	1
B	123	72	63.08%	3	4
C	373	306	54.93%	18	17

It's really a very simple system - PLAY the teams that are getting CRUSHED by the spread when they play a team that is CRUSHING the spread.

Linemakers need to adjust the lines because the public will not play the BAD teams - this - it's a back door system. EXCEPT for the "A" plays. Which is a favorites. Bridgejumper has been getting about 45 plays a year in the last 5 years.

HOWEVER - if you want to be involved with PRE-SEASON I'm going to have a chase going on with certain teams.

I'm going to chase losses and wins. For instance - the GB Packers. McCarthy loves making his players suffer and has never won all 4 Pre season games - he does things like "Let's put a rookie CB out on an island against the other teams best receiver and see how he does". type stuff.

My system will fade
Atlanta
Cinci
Green Bay
New England
N.O.
to pick up 5 units before the real season starts.

Bridgejumper does not start until week 4 of the regular season.

Also don't forget about my NBA chase system that was +140 units until a tragic and learning experience final few weeks. Teams just don't care in those 2 weeks. More on that as we get closer to the NBA.

[Grinder12000]

PRE SEASON WAGERING - free money!

OK - I have wagers in against the following 5 teams - this is straight up money line betting - NOT ATS

Atlanta - Miami +130
Cinci - Kansas City -133
Green Bay - Tennessee -120
New England - Washington -127
N.O. - St. Louis -145

remember this is a 4 game chase

[ny92mike]

Good Luck....I've polished up my system as well.

Lets hope for a great season of wins against the spread.

[existential]

does this apply to college too?

[Grinder12000]

I've tried College, I've tried a moving average but none seem to work very well. For a number of years I had a system where if a College team had >15 returning starters was player a team with <12 returning starters play the "old" team. But after about 6 years that started to fail.

The pre season chase thing started after a good number of beers. A friend said "you like chases (not really but NBA was GREAT last year) play the packers to lose one game in preseason". So I was looking at coaches records and those 5 coaches never did very well in pre-season.

McCarthy LOVES to create situations. One time he told the other coach his game plan. He said you can not see how good you are until you see FAIL! He strives for failure in pre season LOL

[boonie26]

Bridgejumper for CFL

Grinder,

Ever checked out Bridgejumping in the Canadian Football League?

Boonie26

[Grinder12000]

I have never considered it. hmmmmmmm

Remember the name is pretty close to how you will feel on these plays. They will be games where there is no way in H*ll you would play a certain team. Back door covers OR blow outs where you look like a fool.

[jjgold]

Good luck guy

[Grinder12000]

Atlanta - Miami +130 LOSE
Cinci - Kansas City -133 WIN
Green Bay - Tennessee -120
New England - Washington -127 WIN
N.O. - St. Louis -145 LOSE

2 chases won - 2 continue and one to play!

[Grinder12000]

OK then. +3

Just to update - this NOT Bridgejumper. This is a pre-season 4 game chase just to get 5 extra units.

Atlanta - Miami +130 LOSE
Cinci - Kansas City -133 WIN
Green Bay - Tennessee -120 WIN
New England - Washington -127 WIN
N.O. - St. Louis -145 LOSE

We have won +3 units with two chases still in play

So now we (or just me) will bet AGAINST (fade) Atlanta and New Orleans in their next game. The amount to wager is what you LOST in the previous game Plus 1 unit.

In Atlanta Mike Smith has a career straight up pre-season W/L record of 7-17 and has never won all 4 games

In New Orleans Sean Payton is 18-16 and also has never won all 4 games. There are others but going 3-1 a few times means they might take pre-season a little too seriously.

I'll be back when lines come out.

[Grinder12000]

PRE-SEASON - WEEK 2 of a 4 game Straight up chase

+3.00 units

Atlanta chase (-.077u)
New Orleans chase (-1.45u)

Atlanta fade - Houston -120 (2.124 to win 1.77)
New Orleans fade - Tennessee +170 ( 1.44 to win 2.445)

[ClimbSomeRocks]

What was the record, for just last season for this system? And how many units won/loss?

[Grinder12000]

Bridgejumper or my chase.

Bridgejumper is from all 23 years. Last year it lost a few units. 22-22. That is the thing I have found - the good years are good and the bad years are just about even so the upside is greater then the downside.

I'm not saying this is the greatest system it the world. A monkey can pick football for a year or two.

Just that this has a 23 year track record. Sadly the last few - have been snooze fests as one team has killed the system. A team that continues to be GREAT or a team that blows and continues to blow.

[Grinder12000]

OK then - One team to go in this 5 team 4 game chase. +4 units so far with one more

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis -133 to win

Remember
we lost 1.45 units in game one (at -145)
game two we wagered 1.45 + 1.00 at +170 so total wager was 0.85

So in game three we wager

1.45 + 0.85 + 1.00 at -133 for 3.63 units

Not real fond of chasing football with whacko lines! I'm glad game two was +170

[Grinder12000]

All right then - for any one following along with this silliness New Orleans has become a problem BUT - this IS a 4 game chase so . . . .

The last 3 games were

-145
+170
-133

and the last game is +165 so I'm wagering 5.49 units on Baltimore TO WIN straight up. - YUCK!!

Then I'll sit back and wait for REAL football and REAL ATS wagering in Bridgejumper.

[I/O]

BOL on the season Grinder

[Grinder12000]

BOOM - and that is how you win 5 easy units in Pre-season NFL. If anyone liked that adrenaline rush I won 120+ units in the NBA last year in a 4 game chase (or 60 units in a 3 game chase). I'll only mention this once. Now I wait a few weeks for Bridgejumper to take off.

Grinders NBA Chase

[Grinder12000]

I've already had my luck for the year! I bet against New Orleans early to LOSE, not seeing it was a League game and not the final preseason. I saw it and said - well, too late. So I won Baltimore TO WIN in X4 and Atlanta to win Sunday!

CHING CHING!

[PhilTheTHRILL]

I've already had my luck for the year! I bet against New Orleans early to LOSE, not seeing it was a League game and not the final preseason. I saw it and said - well, too late. So I won Baltimore TO WIN in X4 and Atlanta to win Sunday!

CHING CHING!

Wait so you bet Baltimore TO WIN? They didn't win.. Am I missing something?

[Grinder12000]

The CORRECT bet was Baltimore to WIN over N.O. in the last pre season game to complete the 4 game chase (which they did). But on 5Dimes they posted the 1st game of the last game of pre season so by accident I bet Atlanta to WIN over N.O. (which they also won).

Bridgejumper needs 3 weeks of games to start picking the upsets.

[dalogester]

checking in.

[Afterimage]

Break the line!

Back from my summer slumber and ready to rock! My 15th season!

[boonie26]

CFL Bridgejumping

Grinder,

Haven't checked for previous years' results yet, but have had two B plays so far this Canadian football season and both teams covered the spread. Small sample and all that but better than losing.

Boonie26

[Grinder12000]

WELL - that game last night will certainly skew things for a few weeks. More for Tampa Bay then Atlanta. I suspect we will be PLAYING Tampa Bay early in the season! Prepare to be jumping off the Bridge. Never said it would be easy ;-)

[jjvoit]

Grinder,

Curious what you mean by Crushing the spread exactly, is there a certain number you are looking at? Never followed previous seasons.

thanks

It's about that time of year to dust off the ol' Bridgejumper system.

I've been posting these plays in one form or another for 22 years and while last year was a blah 22-22 year I can say that if you follow this system you MIGHT lose a few units in a year OR you can hit 60% ATS. The upside is far greater then the down side.

This is the record after 22 years of real wagering - no back testing numbers are included.

System - W / L / Pct / Last years W-L

A	62	17	78.48%	1	1
B	123	72	63.08%	3	4
C	373	306	54.93%	18	17

It's really a very simple system - PLAY the teams that are getting CRUSHED by the spread when they play a team that is CRUSHING the spread.

Linemakers need to adjust the lines because the public will not play the BAD teams - this - it's a back door system. EXCEPT for the "A" plays. Which is a favorites. Bridgejumper has been getting about 45 plays a year in the last 5 years.

HOWEVER - if you want to be involved with PRE-SEASON I'm going to have a chase going on with certain teams.

I'm going to chase losses and wins. For instance - the GB Packers. McCarthy loves making his players suffer and has never won all 4 Pre season games - he does things like "Let's put a rookie CB out on an island against the other teams best receiver and see how he does". type stuff.

My system will fade
Atlanta
Cinci
Green Bay
New England
N.O.
to pick up 5 units before the real season starts.

Bridgejumper does not start until week 4 of the regular season.

Also don't forget about my NBA chase system that was +140 units until a tragic and learning experience final few weeks. Teams just don't care in those 2 weeks. More on that as we get closer to the NBA.

[Grinder12000]

Typically when the difference between the two teams playing is greater then 6 points - but there are some other categories I use because I have 20+ years of games. in Week 4 it's a much greater difference because of less games.

[Grinder12000]

Should have 2 possible 3 plays - two should be "B" plays. Not sure about the other yet! I'll post them later Tuesday when the lines coming out and solidify a little but I would wait to bet anyway on these dogs. No hurry

[Grinder12000]

Bridgejumper WEEK 1 (or should I say 4?)

Two "B" games and one game in limbo until the line comes or and solidifies

The system is broken down into sub categories

"B" games are 123-72 63.08% in the system

#1 PLAY Jacksonville +13.5 or greater over the Chargers (Away Dogs 10.5 are 89-53 for 62.6% win rate in the system)
#2 PLAY Kansas City +3.5 over the Patriots (home Dogs are 34-19 for 64.5% in the system)

Possible #3 - Da Bears - probably not a game to play - Packers look to be small away dogs, if Cheeseheads are favs go with the Bears otherwise run away from the game.

[Marooner]

[dalogester]

dang missed the +13.5 line on jacksonville. Is it worth taking +13?

[Grinder12000]

Oh yea - but you might as well wait - I think there is still pressure to go up to +13.5 Looking more and more like Da Bears are a pick. I'll make the SAD call (I'm a cheesehead) Wednesday night!

All "B" Picks

#1 PLAY Jacksonville Waiting to get +13.5
#2 PLAY Kansas City +3.5
#3 PLAY Chicago - I got the Bears +2 at 5Dimes!

[dalogester]

little scared of the KC pick. but its probably more the reason to take it.

[Venom OG]

I like your picks but I'm not sure how you are arriving at them based on your system. For example, you are taking Chicago over Green Bay, implying that Green Bay has been crushing the spread and Chicago has been getting crushed. Not the case obviously, as Green Bay is 0-3 ATS (2 were not close) and Chicago is 2-1 ATS, both of their wins coming by 10+ ATS.

[Grinder12000]

And I KNOW Green Bay will beat Chicago. What can ya do.

Venom, there is a little more to it then just the spreads. Over the 25+ years I have a lot of numbers and situations come up like the 2 games this week where it actually picks the opposite. Teams hurting on the road but still favs do not get better even though the public seems to think they will.

The line is -2 because Joe Public says the Packers can't POSSIBLY lose 3 out of 4 even though they have looked horrible. These situations do not normally correct them selves on the road.

[Venom OG]

The line is -2 because Joe Public says the Packers can't POSSIBLY lose 3 out of 4 even though they have looked horrible. These situations do not normally correct them selves on the road.

It seems that way. Do you think New Orleans being favored at Dallas is another example?

Last year I remember thinking along the same lines when the Giants went to KC in Week 4 and KC was only a 3 point favorite even though the Giants were clearly trash and the Chiefs has shown themselves to be solid. I could only assume the line was so low because for one the Chiefs had the worst record in the league the year before but mostly because the public couldn't fathom the Giants starting 0-4. I believe the final in that one was something like 30-7. So I agree with you there.

The only reason I asked the question is because it seems like you laid your system out as simply to pound teams who have been bad ATS against teams who have been good. But obviously there is more that goes into it.