First things first…. I am 100% on NFL picks that I’ve recommended here on SBR backed by my analysis…that being said, I’ve only been on here for 2 weeks so I wouldn’t blame you for taking that with a grain of salt. When I ‘cap games, I break them down on a weighted factor-analysis range scale. In other words, I break them down quantitatively (stats), affectively (game’s meaning/public perception), situationally, technically (trend analysis), and financially (where the books stand to win most). That’s my formula. Of course, which factors I weigh more and to what extent and the precise mechanisms of my analysis I cannot divulge-- obviously. But I can give a general breakdown of the game.
Dallas is traveling to NO. The PUBLIC are backing the saints heavily @ home after coming off a loss to the Jets. Currently, ~80% of the money (spread/ml) is on the Saints….and still bookmakers still haven’t moved the line significantly lower…..why? This is why: The Saints should have opened -3 favorite @ home. Again, books are smart and understand public’s betting tendencies in relation to a ”good number.” Now why do I say the Saints should’ve been -3? Because this is a bigger game for Dallas than NO. Dallas leads in NFC East but not by much…. Philly won (like I predicted) last week too. So this puts the pressure on Dallas to win if they want to have a shot of the playoffs.
Now for the situational/quantitative analysis… Saints Defense took a beating last week … key injuries for NO defense. That leaves Dallas able to run the ball…and easy 10-20 yard to TE. Saints were 25th against the rush to begin with, just in case anyone was wondering. Now on the opposite end, we have A LOT of injuries to Dallas’ defensive line and of course Dez Bryant on offense (although he has been more of a liability than an asset in recent outings) . That gives NO the ability to run the ball on the ‘boys. Problem is NO isn’t a running team and their Offense line will be at par with a 2nd string Dallas defensive line…Brees will want to throw it,,,, and Dallas’ secondary are all starters. So in the end we have 2 teams with similar strengths and weaknesses on offense/defense….with NO having the better offense @ secondary levels…but Dallas having a better defense and a balanced offense.
So …situationally… who wants it more? Advantage is clearly Dallas. A win would solidify them as the leader in the division and that they are on track for the playoffs. In contrast, Saints are the Kings of their division with only Carolina to “worry” about. Also with “tougher” games ahead for NO… they may “trap” themselves by taking for granted a win over Dallas and preparing for their upcoming games.
Last but not least…my quantitative analysis points to a Dallas win in 78.4% of the range of possibilities. Of course, this number is “arbitrary” to you guys…. But just to give you an example: I had St.louis (+13)covering the spread against Seattle in ~66% of the range of possibilities. Final score prediction (which is relative) : Dallas 31 Saints 24.
I personally have the largest % of my plans on Dallas ML (+260) and Dallas +7 which I locked up on Thursday. Good luck.
Dallas is traveling to NO. The PUBLIC are backing the saints heavily @ home after coming off a loss to the Jets. Currently, ~80% of the money (spread/ml) is on the Saints….and still bookmakers still haven’t moved the line significantly lower…..why? This is why: The Saints should have opened -3 favorite @ home. Again, books are smart and understand public’s betting tendencies in relation to a ”good number.” Now why do I say the Saints should’ve been -3? Because this is a bigger game for Dallas than NO. Dallas leads in NFC East but not by much…. Philly won (like I predicted) last week too. So this puts the pressure on Dallas to win if they want to have a shot of the playoffs.
Now for the situational/quantitative analysis… Saints Defense took a beating last week … key injuries for NO defense. That leaves Dallas able to run the ball…and easy 10-20 yard to TE. Saints were 25th against the rush to begin with, just in case anyone was wondering. Now on the opposite end, we have A LOT of injuries to Dallas’ defensive line and of course Dez Bryant on offense (although he has been more of a liability than an asset in recent outings) . That gives NO the ability to run the ball on the ‘boys. Problem is NO isn’t a running team and their Offense line will be at par with a 2nd string Dallas defensive line…Brees will want to throw it,,,, and Dallas’ secondary are all starters. So in the end we have 2 teams with similar strengths and weaknesses on offense/defense….with NO having the better offense @ secondary levels…but Dallas having a better defense and a balanced offense.
So …situationally… who wants it more? Advantage is clearly Dallas. A win would solidify them as the leader in the division and that they are on track for the playoffs. In contrast, Saints are the Kings of their division with only Carolina to “worry” about. Also with “tougher” games ahead for NO… they may “trap” themselves by taking for granted a win over Dallas and preparing for their upcoming games.
Last but not least…my quantitative analysis points to a Dallas win in 78.4% of the range of possibilities. Of course, this number is “arbitrary” to you guys…. But just to give you an example: I had St.louis (+13)covering the spread against Seattle in ~66% of the range of possibilities. Final score prediction (which is relative) : Dallas 31 Saints 24.
I personally have the largest % of my plans on Dallas ML (+260) and Dallas +7 which I locked up on Thursday. Good luck.
You have been here three years and this is your response?
boys and over..thx me tomorrow..
