MobFade Week 6 Picks
2013: 33-31, -.5 Units
Week 5: 4-7, -4 Units
Week 4: 7-6, -1 Unit
Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units
Got buried last week and been getting crushed on my 2 Unit plays for a couple weeks. Probably just flat bet this week and play a bunch of teasers. Leans:
DET @ CLE+3
Assuming it gets to +3, if not then ML and teasers. CJ hobbled changes the face of this offense and he's going against Haden this week. Browns front 7 should be back to 100% as it sounds like Sheard and Bryant will go. Lions haven't been giving up a ton of sacks but I would think that has less to do with protection and more to do with Reggie Bush. CLE has been average defending RB's in the pass game so the Lions will have that but I don't think he'll find much room running the ball. Other side CLE is getting Shawn Lauvao back which normally wouldn't be a big deal but his replacement is maybe the worst OG in football. It all comes down to Weeden and he now has the weapons to do it. In the end this feels like a lower-scoring game and the under getting hammered down from 46 to 43.5 shows that. Going to let money keep coming in on DET and see where Bovada posts this.
PIT @ NYJ UNDER 41
This is another game that's in between 2.5 and 3 at the books and the total right now is at 41. I would lean slightly PIT here off the bye against the Jets on a short week. Geno Smith has played 1 good game in his career and it happened to be just a couple days ago so that's fresh in everyone's mind. Going against Dick Lebeau still means something IMO, though the PIT D is a far cry from what it used to be. NYJ also have no weapons and more importantly for the under, no one to stretch the field. Same goes for PIT when Ben has to play behind his makeshift line. NYJ D-line is going to dominate the line of scrimmage here with Levi Brown in his first week in a Steeler jersey only being a marginal upgrade at LT for now. Cromartie injury hasn't been fully reported but it sounds like PIT should get a little breathing room. Maybe my favorite angle on the under is that neither defense has been generating turnovers, which should make for a true field-position battle with few gifted short fields. Line went as high as 41.5 after opening at 40.5 but I don't think it's too risky to let it try to get back up as all books are at 41 right now.
STL @ HOU (TEASE)
Pretty straightforward teasing HOU across the 7 and the 3 to land around -1.5 or -2.5. Books are pretty handcuffed here and even with the questions for HOU at QB they are a run-first, defensive-minded team that just needs someone back there to manage the game. Schaub, Yates, who cares. STL can be had on the ground and through the air. They also field maybe the only NFL QB who is more physically limited than Schaub in Bradford. STL's Offense consists of only the dump-off pass, and there is not much of a chance that either the run game or deep ball get going against HOU.
GB @ BAL
No lean here. Gun to my head GB-2.5 but I am of the opinion that this defense is different without Clay Matthews and BAL is shoring up their offense. It might not manifest itself this week, but adding Monroe should pay huge dividends for this offense, as well as getting someone even as marginal as Jacoby Jones back with Marlon Brown developing somewhat. I would really lean OVER here, but 48 seems like a lot with a chance of rain and BAL in the mix.
CIN (TEASE?) @ BUF UNDER??
BUF was going to be a great play here until EJ got hurt. Now I really don't know what to make of it as -6.5 is a better value than a tease if it's available, but I wouldn't want to lay 6.5 with CIN on the road with a small chance of rain. Leon Hall coming back for the Bengals but Michael Johnson still questionable. Bills getting Byrd AND Gilmore back. Sounds like a recipe for the Under, but 41.5 is pretty low with some of the playmakers both teams have out there. The Bills Special Teams is also terrible and a backup QB coming in doesn't necessarily make for a low-scoring game if he starts throwing a bunch of picks to shorten the field. Prudent thing is to stay away until we get some favorable line movement or more news.
Week 5: 4-7, -4 Units
Week 4: 7-6, -1 Unit
Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units
Got buried last week and been getting crushed on my 2 Unit plays for a couple weeks. Probably just flat bet this week and play a bunch of teasers. Leans:
DET @ CLE+3
Assuming it gets to +3, if not then ML and teasers. CJ hobbled changes the face of this offense and he's going against Haden this week. Browns front 7 should be back to 100% as it sounds like Sheard and Bryant will go. Lions haven't been giving up a ton of sacks but I would think that has less to do with protection and more to do with Reggie Bush. CLE has been average defending RB's in the pass game so the Lions will have that but I don't think he'll find much room running the ball. Other side CLE is getting Shawn Lauvao back which normally wouldn't be a big deal but his replacement is maybe the worst OG in football. It all comes down to Weeden and he now has the weapons to do it. In the end this feels like a lower-scoring game and the under getting hammered down from 46 to 43.5 shows that. Going to let money keep coming in on DET and see where Bovada posts this.
PIT @ NYJ UNDER 41
This is another game that's in between 2.5 and 3 at the books and the total right now is at 41. I would lean slightly PIT here off the bye against the Jets on a short week. Geno Smith has played 1 good game in his career and it happened to be just a couple days ago so that's fresh in everyone's mind. Going against Dick Lebeau still means something IMO, though the PIT D is a far cry from what it used to be. NYJ also have no weapons and more importantly for the under, no one to stretch the field. Same goes for PIT when Ben has to play behind his makeshift line. NYJ D-line is going to dominate the line of scrimmage here with Levi Brown in his first week in a Steeler jersey only being a marginal upgrade at LT for now. Cromartie injury hasn't been fully reported but it sounds like PIT should get a little breathing room. Maybe my favorite angle on the under is that neither defense has been generating turnovers, which should make for a true field-position battle with few gifted short fields. Line went as high as 41.5 after opening at 40.5 but I don't think it's too risky to let it try to get back up as all books are at 41 right now.
STL @ HOU (TEASE)
Pretty straightforward teasing HOU across the 7 and the 3 to land around -1.5 or -2.5. Books are pretty handcuffed here and even with the questions for HOU at QB they are a run-first, defensive-minded team that just needs someone back there to manage the game. Schaub, Yates, who cares. STL can be had on the ground and through the air. They also field maybe the only NFL QB who is more physically limited than Schaub in Bradford. STL's Offense consists of only the dump-off pass, and there is not much of a chance that either the run game or deep ball get going against HOU.
GB @ BAL
No lean here. Gun to my head GB-2.5 but I am of the opinion that this defense is different without Clay Matthews and BAL is shoring up their offense. It might not manifest itself this week, but adding Monroe should pay huge dividends for this offense, as well as getting someone even as marginal as Jacoby Jones back with Marlon Brown developing somewhat. I would really lean OVER here, but 48 seems like a lot with a chance of rain and BAL in the mix.
CIN (TEASE?) @ BUF UNDER??
BUF was going to be a great play here until EJ got hurt. Now I really don't know what to make of it as -6.5 is a better value than a tease if it's available, but I wouldn't want to lay 6.5 with CIN on the road with a small chance of rain. Leon Hall coming back for the Bengals but Michael Johnson still questionable. Bills getting Byrd AND Gilmore back. Sounds like a recipe for the Under, but 41.5 is pretty low with some of the playmakers both teams have out there. The Bills Special Teams is also terrible and a backup QB coming in doesn't necessarily make for a low-scoring game if he starts throwing a bunch of picks to shorten the field. Prudent thing is to stay away until we get some favorable line movement or more news.
