doesnt surprise me, ppl like overs..to be honest until a couple years ago all i played was unders but then the NFL started pussifying the gm and i got buried as all a sudden every damn ball that went up that didnt get caught was now pass interference, every good hit that dislodged the ball from the wr was a 15 yard penalty and no matter what every damn gm had points which killed me as for whatever reason i was always much better at identifying low scoring defensive gms than shootouts.. had to change my philosophy big time cause believe me when this 1st started happening i got buried! came to realization that if i didnt like the under it must be a over and long run it has helped as numbers have since adjusted and now im comfortable playing both when my numbers agree and im def a better totals capper because of it.. couldnt tell ya how the fukk minny scored 30 today tho? lol
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i forget how it went down but yea it was down to the very end where either saints scored or stopped bucs and it was a str8 bs call too! (clearly i was on bucs last year also, lol)... much like that fukkin joke of a call they made when brees got jacked up today(cleanly) and fumbled yet like always bitch refs on his nuts, and call a clean hit roughing and gave saints the ball back to go score...Comment -
chip kelly the gift that keeps on giving
, although thu night will be conflicting as gonna put my 1st half under to the test! hopefully the number high as hell as i suspect wont be long till phi totals are lined over 56 quite regularly..
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if i didnt respond to anyone i apologize as tried to run through and answer real quick like but i gots to go... prob be back in the wee hours to see if anything worth playing 2marro..Comment -
I started studying some total trends for this NFL season for 2nd half plays. Its 59.259% at (16W-11L). It is a really small sample size I understand, so I will start testing last years games through out the rest of the week. Just going to try and break it down and do 1 month at a time. I got the idea from a middle system. I just expanded the filters. I know middle system was tested and came out to be 58% for the NFL, so i have high hopes for this one as there are a lot more plays.
2nd half will be on SEA under again. I already have whole game from a personal bet, but I want to bet small and test these trends until i have bigger sample size. Week 1 went 8-5 and week 2 it is 8-6 with Sea game pending.Comment -
ya nice hit with TB,
im actually pissed im not watching a lot of the games like I normally do because Im in the middle of moving to a new house and need to get my directtv setup....frustrating when I cant watch a lot of these games and have to use stattracker.....but by week 4 Ill be all setup
nice weekend again, very frustrating to deal with all these referees though, flags are just everywhereComment -
like capping off another good day with a nice easy winner..only bummer was way 1st half played out i really didnt have a good answer for a 2nd half play, thought crossed my mind that sea was gonna take care of any lingering teasers but in the end decided to leave well enough alone as at times i dont have to be a total degen but 2nite will not be one of those times as might as well try and hit the Monday nighter!!!
pit/cin ov 40.5 -105...ill be the 1st to admit im not 100% comfortable playing a over between a couple smash mouth afc north div rivals as these gms tend to be physical and often times lower scoring..that said i believe that premise alone is giving us a few points of value here as i have this in the 43-45 range...
for starters steelers secondary is really thin right now, sure they have ike davis who has done a incredible job defending green over the years after him they are down his starting counterpart and also their nickle corner is highly unlikely to play in this gm as well.. in years past maybe not as much a problem as dalton didnt have as many weapons to throw to and with ike locking up green he often was eaten up by dick Lebeau's nasty fire zone blitzes which is a big part of the reason i believe cincy went out and drafted eifert in the 1st round despite already having a very good te in grisham as having these 2 on the field together leaves the defensive guru with some tough decisions, not to mention having to contend with sanu and jones on the outside and the added explosiviness bernard provides,,, last week against the bears dalton was getting the ball out of hands incredibly fast and accurately. i honestly dont believe either team has illusions that they will be able to come out and try and play smash mouth running gm and be successful because for 1 both defense are very tough to run on and in the the steelers case against that cncy front 7 with a beat up oline lets face it it just not gonna be the way to attack..
i guess you may ask after reading that why not just roll with cincy here as obviously i think they can get some things done offensively in this matchup and the answer is pretty simple, despite how pit looked last week, the oline in shambles, and having possibly the worst oc in the league im just not ready to write off big ben and the talent he has at his disposal on the outside to the tune of laying damn near a td against them after coming off a abysmal performance...
wouldnt shock me in the least if cincy came out the aggressor on both sides of the ball and jumped out to a early lead but knowing Ben it will only take so long before he says enough with this moron haileys offense if pit starts falling behind and starts going no huddle and calling his own number (namely the arians playbook that works!), and when that happens i dont wanna be holding a cincy-6.5 ticket as my range on this gm is really close to that number. i believe cincy wins but pit is not starting the season 0-2 w/o a fight in a gm i think we talking anywhere from 27-17 if the pit oline cant hold up or just as easily a dogfight that ends around 24-21..either way it plays out think there good enough shot at surpassing what these days in the new nfl qualifies as a rather low number that it warrants a play.. would not surprise me if this thing ticked up to 41/41.5 later on(although i thought i got the best of the philly total all week and all a sudden before kickoff turned out wasnt the case so what do i know, lol) but regardless that what i expect to happen so thought i would get it out there now...
glanced at next weeks card and see a few very interesting gms and early possibilities so will try to start posting thoughts, leans, or plays if i feel i need the number now either sometime today or during the gm tonight....gl everyoneComment -
Cinci ML -240 6 Units
O40.5 1 Unit
Good Luck allComment -
"Bengals" and "-6 or -7" in a divisional game don't go together. Ever. Period. I don't care how shitty or beat up PIT is right now. The Bengals are a bunch of losers until they prove otherwise.Comment -
I really like cincy in this spot, but two games I really liked this weekend both lost. Another person posted PIT +7 earlier in the week and I ended up taking PIT at +6.5 for my book. Which is a good sign now that the line is down to +6. Looking at the publics consensus, if majority is on CINCI why would the line drop?Comment -
Not sure how much you guys saw of the last Philly drive but totally retarded by Kelly and Off. With 3 minutes on the clock and a D for both teams that would struggle to stop Oregon they go out of bounds on 3 or 4 early first downs, score and then give the ball back to SD with like 2 minutes to go. Horrible absolutely horrible.Comment -
watched whole thing, actually live bet philly at decent price when they were down. couldnt believe the shit, i mean im all for the high tempo shit (mainly cause it great for overs) but when your d been on the field all day and has been unable to stop sd at all (i mean i knew damn well i was screwed if sd got ball back with over a min so not sure why he didnt?), couldnt believe the play selection or fact they seemed to want to give the ball back with as much time as possible? for as much credit as i have been giving him for how his offense is designed it appears he could use some game management 101 course or a football for dummies book...Comment -
^ yep. Can't believe a player, coach, or the booth didn't say wtf!!
Early in the week so I'll ask a lame question given I'm new to survivor. Every pool in the world will be 90% Den or Sea. Do you just advance or pray for a miracle.
Love your analysis man. Thx!!Comment -
depending on the size of pool, less ppl i say survive and dont worry bout matchups till you get there..bigger pool i tend to try and stay off the overwhelming popular sides and map out when i feel the team everyone taking a certain week could be just as valuable a play down the road and if i think there is another good spot for such team i dont mind gambling a little with a less favored team...far as this week specifically i honestly havnt had enough time to look at card and see if i feel confident enough in another team where i can potentially save den/sea as surely there several more times this yr they will be good plays so would like to keep them if possible...Comment -
Interesting thought. Is there a point where you can buy a survivor pool? 10% of entries up to 17 (# weeks) need to win.
I'm fascinated by survivor as clearly 30-50% are clueless and giving their money away. The 2 I'm in have already lost 30% or so. Many taking TB @ NYJ first week.Comment -
MY LEANS NFL
SD ML +155 VS TENN
MIN -5 VS CLE
TB +7 VS NE
HOU -2.5 VS BAL
STL +4 VS DAL
ARZ ml +320 1X VS NOH
ARZ +7.5 2X VS NOH
DET ml +117 VS WAS
SF -10.5 *(MAYBE TEASE)
SEA -19.5 VS JAGS
BUFF ML +125
NYG ML
TOTALS
TB/NE U43.5
WAS/DET O49
TEN/SD O43.5
NYG/CAR U45.5
ATL/MIA O44
These are my early leans, take your time and see which ones you like. I only bet texans and nyg from another guy I am following so far. Not going to bet any of these unless you like them too. Trying to maintain discipline overall. I was following 4 people and overall down 6 units on the season, so now just following you and one other guy. Also a separate trend system I will be tracking and betting small on until I do further testing. I am at work, so can not discuss these plays too much, but will post my thoughts on these tomorrow when I have more time. I think home field on some of these games gave us some pretty good spreads as well as teams like TEN and ARZ making good adjustments, they seem to be two great teams this real for ATS or ML money.
Appreciate your thoughts.
AustinComment -
anyone see pitt winningComment -
bank gl my brother to the bank baby
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boiler yes PITT can win this game there D alone can win. cinny has trouble beating PITT and PITT like's playing prime time football Monday they are the bestComment -
Throw out past results between pitt and Cincinnati, two completely different teams this year. Cincinnati about same as how they ended, but pitt is definitely different.Comment -
It the nfl bro so I certainly wouldn't rule it out. I find it unlikely but if Ben can get some time like bears gave cutler last week then who knows, as nc said while on paper I thinks Cincy pretty solid (actually have a sb future w them cause like the moves they have made and afc is weak) they havnt proven to be any kind of team you can count on as of yet.. I thought it was a toss up on the spread but obviously playing the over I'm hoping Ben can put some points up..Comment -
Jm it was my intention to go thru the card today but had some stuff to do so will either get done tonight after the wifey falls asleep or hammer out in morning and get back to you.. Sux as prob a few numbers that will have already moved but what can ya do, unfortunately this ain't what pays the bills...Comment -
How much does Harrison factor. If anyone knows the cadence etc of the Pitt O he does.Comment -
Does pit oline even know that? Not from what I've seen, lol.. Thought crossed my mind he should have been able to give the Cincy offense some helpful hints but who knows if that the case? I'm sure he will play his ass off tho and make his presence felt cause he just that type of guy that gonna show pit they should have signed himComment -
I watch this Cinn team and cant help but think Belichek coaching and Brady QB and they might be best team in NFL.
Their Off play calling and QB'ing is just horrible for the talent. It's all or nothing for them. They run for 6/7 per and where's the play action? Non existent. It's so obvious pass/run.Comment -
Anyone play 2nd Half?Comment -
took the under in the 2nd half. cash it.Comment
