Bankers throwing darts at the NFL all season (again)...

[Mako-SBR]

on it banker.....feel good bout it this week

3-4 this season? hows that possible when theres only be 6 qualifying weeks?

Wrong.

You could argue rust alone would create a fantastic 1H under play for that particular 1st game, hell it should be your wet dream if you believe the dream of the TNF 1H Under "auto-bet"!

But honestly the only truly good season this system had was the first 4 games of last year, where it went 4-0.

After that the books adjusted the lines in response, and since that fourth W in a row last year it basically has regressed back to not being worth playing over another more educated bet. Break-even at a -110 essentially, and that's when things are going WELL.

But you keep on playing it, it is "proven" after all.

For everyone else, everyone who took their meds today, this isn't some sort of critique on Bank, I tail his picks myself and love the commentary he provides. This was an attempt to actually validate a betting theory based on a too-small sample size and unfortunately it just didn't pan out as being solid in the big picture.

[Mako-SBR]

chill smut my man,, he wasnt trying to be negative at all, i appreciated the post for real...but yea 3-3 on year seeing how we dont play week 1 but still 3 losses in a row and the man is right the numbers have been slanted against us lately on these..he was just contributing bro, wasnt attacking..

Thanks Bank, keep up the great work!

[BMoreBird]

dude listen i am the furthest from square... i like carolina and the under tongiht. i NEVER take road favs..esp by 6 in a division game..
dude this is the 0-6 buccs. no doug martin no qb... come on. 24-13ish

[Mako-SBR]

dude listen i am the furthest from square... i like carolina and the under tongiht. i NEVER take road favs..esp by 6 in a division game..
dude this is the 0-6 buccs. no doug martin no qb... come on. 24-13ish

Agree on both, my exact card as well. Tough to swallow a square situation that big but it is the Bucs.

Going to be a player mutiny soon, they'll have to rename that ship in the endzone to freaking "HMS Bounty".

[JabooFootball]

It's okay to be square when you're fading Schiano!!!

[Smutbucket]

chill smut my man,, he wasnt trying to be negative at all, i appreciated the post for real...but yea 3-3 on year seeing how we dont play week 1 but still 3 losses in a row and the man is right the numbers have been slanted against us lately on these..he was just contributing bro, wasnt attacking..

ya just the way he said "the first half Thursday autobet was never real" had me laughing and had to respond to that, i wasn't being negative either...

trying to fit some time into capping these days but its very hard to find time except night before...need to get my shit together. need a good week this week have had 3 bad weeks in a row

[Smutbucket]

Wrong.

You could argue rust alone would create a fantastic 1H under play for that particular 1st game, hell it should be your wet dream if you believe the dream of the TNF 1H Under "auto-bet"!

But honestly the only truly good season this system had was the first 4 games of last year, where it went 4-0.

After that the books adjusted the lines in response, and since that fourth W in a row last year it basically has regressed back to not being worth playing over another more educated bet. Break-even at a -110 essentially, and that's when things are going WELL.

But you keep on playing it, it is "proven" after all.

For everyone else, everyone who took their meds today, this isn't some sort of critique on Bank, I tail his picks myself and love the commentary he provides. This was an attempt to actually validate a betting theory based on a too-small sample size and unfortunately it just didn't pan out as being solid in the big picture.

no I don't agree that "rust" could contribute to 1st half under in 1st game and I am 100% positive the OP who started the autobets agrees that it doesn't apply to week 1....

nor should it apply to teams who had a bye the week before... do your numbers exclude circumstances like that?

[2daBank]

Feel little fortunate to get out with a push, of coarse we were a bank shot fg away from staying under... I dunno maybe time to reexamine the auto-play,, I mean my goal w these things is to pick up on them early enough and ride'em while the getting good.. At this point down juice on the yr w them but if u been around since last year we up from it which always my goal. Hell I even gave up on Jamie Garcia 1st 5 bets when they stopped making as much sense, so think going forward gonna go back to actually trying to cap this gm and deciding (of coarse would have played tonight anyway like I said)...

on a brighter note so far my boy wacha flame is dealing in beantown, GO CARDs! Pretty buzzed up so not gonna bother w 2nd half, just watch the baseball gm and hope the teaser comes in which I think it will..

[BMoreBird]

i ended up with a straight bet carolina -6 (bought hook) and taking a teaser, carolina pick and under 45.5 (it dropped last min), that last 2 min i had to sweat. they even kicked a fg to put me over by a half point but penalty negated and they went for it on next 4th down.

had under on cards sox game and midd tenn +9.5... not lookin for cred, just stoked on a good night

[BMoreBird]

wacha is unreal good... one mistake almost cost them the game.

[2daBank]

i ended up with a straight bet carolina -6 (bought hook) and taking a teaser, carolina pick and under 45.5 (it dropped last min), that last 2 min i had to sweat. they even kicked a fg to put me over by a half point but penalty negated and they went for it on next 4th down.

had under on cards sox game and midd tenn +9.5... not lookin for cred, just stoked on a good night

sweet..yea that last 2 min and fg had me bummed out.. worked out tho.. had a bunch on cards so im happy

[BMoreBird]

time to study for the weekend. going to be in vegas betting bigger on nfl sunday games.

[2daBank]

no I don't agree that "rust" could contribute to 1st half under in 1st game and I am 100% positive the OP who started the autobets agrees that it doesn't apply to week 1....

nor should it apply to teams who had a bye the week before... do your numbers exclude circumstances like that?

certainly dont buy the rust for week 1 as this more about teams on short weeks running more vanilla offenses..dont think they ever have teams off a bye in this gm as that would be a decided disadvantage to the other team ..

it not a big argument to really have, you know me i encourage discussion in this thread and actually think mako may be right in that this has possibly run its coarse and it time to move on,, im always looking for the next little idea like this i can ride out but im more of a jump ship 1st and leave the woman and children behind than a stick around while it sinks type guy.. if shit aint working any longer it time to find something else like the several ive had in baseball over the yrs, sure it hurts to let go but sometimes you gotta kick a bitch to the curb .... for as many as you quoted earlier with bad breaks lets be real we been incredibly lucky on a bunch the last 2 years.. appreciate you all jumping to my defense but it nothing personal against me that the idea isnt panning out, hey we made a little off it while it lasted and i can live with that.. maybe i play few more at times this yr but will be ones i cap not just blindly betting them as the things that used to happen in these gms the ball starting to bounce the other way and as mako mentioned the numbers have gotten shittier...

[2daBank]

crappy day ahead for old banker..work, gym, then somehow the wife has convinced me to go to this stupid 6 flags fright fest thing with couple of our friends, she seems excited, ive been before (when i was like 14, no desire to go there now!)..the things you gotta do for love i guess (or whatever it is after 15 freaking years!)...anyways figured i would post just some initial thoughts and leans (do have a play also) and see what all you fine folks think, will either respond late fri night or Sat and post a card sometime around then (no time for ncaa so open to suggestions there as well)..

the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..

everything else just leans as i havnt had the time and wont until Sat sometime..

dal/det ov 50.5? ..for whatever reason some1 sharper than me likes the under, maybe i will see it when i cap it but maybe i will find it taking some under money simply cause of last weeks gm with philly? i dunno and w/o actually making a number cant say for certain but feel like pretty good chance i might be on "squarest" over of week, if den isnt it that is,, lol... id lean dal but dont trust them all that much to continue winning gms and line says im prob wrong so total or nothing most likely..

not bothering with sf//jags, not only cause unless you just fading jags it a exercise in futility but also cause my thoughts on these ignorant london gms is well documented..keep printing money NFL, like you dont already have enough, wont be long till these whores have a team across the pond despite the stupidity of it, 18 gms as well, player safety my ass..

cle/kc..dont like these bg spreads with chiefs but how the hell can you back campbell? i sure the fukk cant..almost certainly lean under but it one of those numbers id have to tease up, crazy what the nfl has become but much like last night somehow they found a way over a number they had no business getting to and all a sudden i find teasing these totals around 40 much more viable options than ever before in that past as that generally provides the cushion you need to block against the stupid that somehow creeps its ugly head on any good under in this range...hell kc/under tease seems about as money as panthers/under last night, again i havnt really capped just initial thoughts....


phins/pats at 1st glance looks like a over to me.. i really have a lot of work to do on this one but i think both teams more than likely put up 20+ and this a pretty low number for pats, while their totals getting lower makes sense the offense is healing and now the d has injury concerns out the ass..only thing is both teams better off running on these d's so clock will be moving, like i said more work to do but total doesnt seem to be agreeing with me anyway so no hurry.. injuries a big deal in this one as need to know about talib and kelly for sure.. easier said than done with bellacheat..

jets/cincy..loved jets last week, was it little suspect way that they actually won? maybe but the spread was never in doubt if ya got early at +4.5 like i suggested (well maybe little in 1st half but for most part this gm played like a 3-4 point win for either team)..not sure how i feel about them this week but think it either the points or nothing even tho i like how cincy playing and they making my future on them look juicier by the week (still just hoping they can get over playoff hump and win 1 as then the hedging opportunities be great)...speaking of futures maybe it a week or so too late but i think panther futures prob best deal available atm w/o looking, team can play (off track i know, just thrilled that after them making me look stupid early on they actually coming together)..

bills/saints..ya know im not laying these points..have to look way more into cause still not 100% on thadius lewis although he has played far better than i would have expected the other ryan will throw the kitchen sink at him this week and he will see looks he has never seen before, have to look into how i think he handles and health of bills rbs cause as ive said before aints can still be run on, enough so with bills d playing strong and possibly no graham i think if lewis can stay mostly clean they can play w/in this number..

pit/oak 1st thing that comes to mind looking at line for 1st time is over or nothing here.. ton of work to do here as while with some teams i dont think i need as many numbers at this point neither of these teams on that list.. so work to do and welcome any thoughts (of coarse i do on all gms just really interested in what ya'll think bout this gm, seem to remember pit never liking this trip when they were better?)..either way i think bell has looked surprisingly good which should hep to keep big dummy clean and he can still pick apart a d when he has time..other side pit d playing well but they are long in the tooth and i think pryor can run around and make some plays on these guys, mcnugget actually should be pretty healthy think him pryor and a nice dose of reese who oak talking bout getting the ball more could give pit headaches..i guess concern would be gm stays close like balty/pit and never has to open up, think someone prob get a lead that forces other team into scoring tho and again these 40ish numbers doesnt take a lot to get them over..

atl/zona..i have put some work in on this gm as there another thread where we were discussing this gm last night and i gotta say the more i looked the more i really like zona in this gm,, be nice to have the price drove way down as feel like i should get + or at least close to pick'em just on names alone but obviously not gonna happen but zona less than -3 makes a ton of sense to me..id expect this gm will have some disagreement so ill start the talks but again feel free to chime in, as always long as it respectful discussion i have no problem with disagreement as long as you can actually bring a valid argument that is!
in simplest terms if you look down these rosters at the healthy players i think being objective you gonna have a very hard time convincing me that zona doesnt have the better talent all over the fied sans the qb, shocking as it may sound.. another thing to keep in mind with this gm is zona came to hotlanta last season with god knows who playing qb (seriously i dont know which of the 4 qbs it was, point is doesnt matter for whatever you say bout palmer he better than whichever 1 it was) and picked matty ice 5 times and lost by only 4, this was in atl, against the falcons team that was very close to the surperbowl, not the banged up mash unit they fielding now..
hear a lot of "Sjax going to play", my response is "so what". cards d is solid and i doubt a 30 year old gimp is striking fear into them, honestly i thin rodgers a better fit for them and all this old fukk coming back does isw cut nto the better players snaps..sure maybe jackson helps in the red zone where atl been horrid but thier play calling down there sux and fact remains just adding a bruising back (a old one with a ton of milage) doesnt ensure red zone success cause not only am i convinced they dont even know how to block for a power run gm but they also dont call plays for shit, basically they just gonna give it to him and hope he can push the pile in but with a gimpy hammy? this relavent cause atl is nt gonna be hitting cards with big plays, douglas aint whipping thiese corners, a gimpy white not whiping these corners, it gonna have to be a steady dose of dump offs and gonzo moving the chains but those types of drives lead to mistakes and settling for fgs..
im sure you can tell me how bad plamer has been but look at the list of teams the cards have played! almost everyone of tehm are teams that can flat get after the qb, which my friends atl can not.. palmer has many flaws, he certainly needs time and space and he incapable of creating it himself and the oline has been bad but again they have faced a lot of very good defensive fronts..if palmer has time he has way more weapons to work with than matty ice right now against the far weaker secondary, fitz is healthier, floyd a potential star in the making, roberts a very good 3, and i love me some andre ellington and he gonna be a matchup nightmare for falcons lbs,, even housler is starting to get involved after a ijury that slowed is start to the year posting his best weeks in b2b weeks, kid has talent and i know arians and palmer loved him before he got hurt in preseason, palmer been known to make tes pretty good and this one has the skill set for sure..that is a great compliment of weapons, arains is a very good offensive mind, and most important this week palmer will have time.. cards right behind panthers for me when it comes to teams i find dont get enough respect and even tho they getting little bit with this line perception still has a line that calls atl favs on a nuetral (although cards prob dont get full 3 for home field) either way i think zona the better team and most ppl just dont wanna see it.. really like this gm but no hurry to bet as it not getting over -3 or less than pick (be sweet if it flipped but surely im not only one who sees this gm this way).. anyway think this one be pretty spilt so would love to get little discussion going here..

what shitty gms for sunday and monday night! when the hell the sunday flex kick in? soon i hope..i guess il be watching more of WS anyways so screw yo nfl, here a prop, over/under on how many ppl be in the stands in the gay ass dome for my lambs playing sea? 15k maybe? you couldnt give these seats away, we didnt even come out on a thu night when nothing else was going on, cards WS gm 5 in stl? nobody going to ram gm so dont worry factoring home field unless they promise to play cards gm on jumbotron whole time, lol.. if we didnt have GM 5 of WS rams would be a really easy play here, ya'll know how i feel bout bradford and have no idea if him being out actually moved line any but if it did that is simply extra value cause bradford worse than replacement level imo.. think lambs may have some success rushing as sea run d not as strong away from home, think lambs defense has started to play little bit better,,this really to many points but again fact it will be like a ghost town doesnt really make me enthusiastic about it. although a case could be made both teams a little flat in what will be equvillant of a high school crowd, of coarse that hurts rams adv with the pass rush as i shouldnt be all that much noise for seachickens raw tackles to deal with..under on monday night makes lot of sense long as clemons can just check everything down like bradford and aviod pick 6s.. again you cant lay those points, dont lay those points, especially in a gm where it be hard pressed to go over a low total..on same token with 12 ppl in stands watching not sure i can reccomend lambs either..

far as pack/minny really no interest..i know im repeating myself but have put no work into this, don know how you could back minny unless you expect ponder to soehow step up to fact he close to unemployed? he might i dunno, and pack beat to hell, id expect a heavy dose of lacy and a few big plays to nelson and get out of dodge..maybe there something to be done with this gm just dont have the time now but open to suggestions cause again not only do i like discussion but it really helps me in weeks like this where i have limited time as when i get a chance to sit down and cap card my add soetimes kicks in and have a hard time getting started but if i read questions/comments (thought provokingones preferebly) it gets the ol' hamster wheel spinning so yea i love to help but it does help me as well..

look forward to hopefully a lot of things to repond to from all the bright cats that make this my fav thread on this site.. believe me when i say the reason i love this thread and do it every year has as much to do with all yo guys that been around contributing to it and some of the new guys that have joined on this yr as somehow we manage to continually get smart guys with sound oppionons and keep out most the disrespectful add nothing trash that romes this place and all of forum world... cheers to ya'll, off to good start lets bang out some winners again this week

[JabooFootball]

Thx bank- with ya (and the rest of the world) on the Denver/Washington over. Besides that not straight bets really jump out at me. I like Pittsburgh -2 at oakland at first glance simply because I think they're in turn around mode but I need to take a better look. I also lean over on Dallas/Detroit as their hasn't been a game under 51 in Detroit this year and I think lasts week was more a reflection of foles inadequacy as a starter than the cowboys' defensive prowess.

[2daBank]

Thx bank- with ya (and the rest of the world) on the Denver/Washington over. Besides that not straight bets really jump out at me. I like Pittsburgh -2 at oakland at first glance simply because I think they're in turn around mode but I need to take a better look. I also lean over on Dallas/Detroit as their hasn't been a game under 51 in Detroit this year and I think lasts week was more a reflection of foles inadequacy as a starter than the cowboys' defensive prowess.

luckily hasnt really mattered with bronco overs,, me and rest of world been cashing them.even went over the week i passed with jags as that gm had a feel of the 1 they wouldnt score enough, who knew jags would muster 19 to slip it over, lol.. books just stuck with den overs atm, i mean even my lines on these which have been basically 7-10 points higher have mostly been slightly low.. dont think they ready to put nfl totals in the 60s, they inching closer as this even higher than the phi and dal gms and i could see little more rushing in this one,,i havnt had the time for making my numbers but didnt wanna have to get 58 or worse, figure if i find something i dont like i can get out of but i doubt it..

yea i dont give dal d a ton of credit for last week, my bigger concern is their playcalling at times, like the way they played it last week made little sense to me (didnt have a wager on gm but romo and dez screwed my fantasy team!), dont think they will have that luxury this week as det gonna be slinging it and they will force dal to keep up.. always worry a little bout det red zone efficiency but think it been much better at home this yr (off top of my head)...dez been jawing bout being better than megatron just has the feel of these 2 putting on a show. of coarse maybe the defenses do everything in their power to prevent that, not sure they can as double teams dont stop these guys oten and even if that the case there enough other weapons to make that strategy backfire...again i havnt made my numbers and no hurry as this one dropping anyways but gotta think ill be putting both teams at 24 minimum and ny y math if they both score 24 pretty likely they get over 50...feels kinda like bears gm, number only point or 2 higher and it was off..

dont think i like pit but again i havnt really capped it,, dont buy the resurgence fully, to a extent cause bell def makes the line look better as he has really good vision and plants and hits hole impressively to me when it there, line played better against balty as well..i have the notion in my head pit generally doesnt come to oak and play all that well and if i recall correctly i used to have a thing about not backing pit or balty the week after they play each other..love for someone who actually tracks things to chime in here (mako, our new addition. any numbers on this?)..

[JabooFootball]

FWIW- Dating back to 07 Pittsburgh is 7-4 SU in regular season games off a regular season game against BMore (in 07 they played last in week 17... Lost in the wildcard game).

[2daBank]

FWIW- Dating back to 07 Pittsburgh is 7-4 SU in regular season games off a regular season game against BMore (in 07 they played last in week 17... Lost in the wildcard game).

right on..like i said sometimes it just perception and im terrible record keeper, that why i ask (clearly ats doesnt apply here but would be curious on that as well as id assume the last 5-6 years pit were favs in most those gms).. short road favs make me ill tho so still doubt i could play pit, i would like them to come out and take a lead tho as i think that would ensure us a over, either team coming out strong would get it done really...

[pulledclear]

Bank lets keep this train rolling!

MTSU +300

BYU-7

Iowa St +420

ILL +320

CLEM -14

TUL -3

TROY +280

[YouHave2outs]

on it banker.....feel good bout it this week

3-4 this season? hows that possible when theres only be 6 qualifying weeks? something tells me your late to the party and not meeting all the requiremeents .... "was never real" wtf you talking about bitch it is real. how many of the losses were bad beats that could have easily been wins but had some bs go down at last minute or penalties (like in buf, that cost the under) the whole 'theory" is real and has proven so IF YOU WATCH THE FUKING GAMES. the whole theory is underprepared/tired offenses that don't show up early and that's exactly what has been happening Thursday nights.....so shove those numbers back up your asshole cuz theyre useless and if you been a part of the thread since the beginning you would know simple shit like week 1 doesn't qualify....not to mention I highly question what numbers your using for the 1st half totals each week...

not to even mention your screwed ****** up numbers that count many losses that shouldn't be still turns a profit....ha

what an idiot you sound like.

[2daBank]

Bank lets keep this train rolling!

MTSU +300

BYU-7

Iowa St +420

ILL +320

CLEM -14

TUL -3

TROY +280

missed yea..i did play byu and under last night...gonna take illini +3 +105 2nd half cause you and another sharp friend of mine liked them at way worse number than im getting now..

rest of my day is ducks -14 1st half. ducks tt ov 48.5. ducks 3rd qrtr - whatever.. beavers tt over 26..and of coarse the St Louis cardinals

[2daBank]

the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...

[2daBank]

Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...

dal/det ov 50.5 (1x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...

[2daBank]

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...

Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..



dal/det ov 50.5 (1x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...

2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)

kc-.5
cle/kc under45

i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..

[2daBank]

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...
Originally Posted by 2daBank
Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..



dal/det ov 50.5 (1x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...








2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)

kc-.5
cle/kc under45

i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..

Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..

thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...

this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..

[2daBank]

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...

Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..



dal/det ov 50.5 (1.5x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...

2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)

kc-.5
cle/kc under45

i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..

Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..

thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...

this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..

fish/pats ov 45 (1.5x)...i went back and forth on whether i wanted to play fish here or this total, ultimately i think the total leaves a little more room for error so this the route i took...i put this in the 48-51 range so clearly see some value here which i think is a product of pats early struggles,, gronk back for another week i feel will be even better with brady and all a sudden i think this offense is gonna get more efficient real quick..like the saints phins do some really good things scheme wise to create presser (granted with a far more talented individual pass rusher in wake), as i said before pats/saints gm i think teams that do these things dont effect a oline like pats and a qb like brady as much as they will figure out the protections and get into the right plays at the line, the last 3 weeks phins have given up damn near 68% completion percentage that not good when you already a team in the bottom half in yards per completion, you get your protections right you can beat this team with the pass. i think pats score between 27-31 in this gm..

on other side pats d is still just beat the hell up up the middle, there no way to sugar coat it, kelly not playing again..since this rash of injuries up the middle the last 3 weeks cincy rushed for 162, saints 131, and jets pounding them to the tune of 177 freaking rushing yards! look is mia run gm as strong as those teams? not really but think they may have figured some things out last week, granted against the bills who's run d isnt strong but id argue at this point it no worse than the pats so i think fish will have some success on the ground..maybe talib plays but can he be at full speed to deal with wallace? what pats gonna do with hartline and clay? tannehil is a gamer and when they get in the red zone they punch it in and dont think this depleted pats group will stop them... i got fish in the 21-24 point range here so if you add it up my low end is higher than this total...

pats could come out with the pissed off whipping stick which is why i choose total over taking the points cause even if that the case mai has been resiliant and will put up garbage points in that senerio..

[Smutbucket]

nice looking card bud, good luck and thanks for all the info.

tailing you on your zona play, like the Denver team total over than the entire game total for that one just in case rg3 starts playing shitty again, lil tidbit to add to your buffalo play and what I love about em this year is their coaching staff is a huge upgrade from last year, doug marrone knows how to get yards, he was the OC for the saints back in 06-08. in 2008 they ranked 1st in yards ( of course he had brees) and came up 15 yards short of breaking marinos single season passing yards record. then he left for head coach job at Syracuse in 09 . defensive coordinator mike pettine, was largely responsible for the jets amazing defense when he was there from 09-12, in 2009 they ranked 1st in yards against and points against. overall highly ranked as far as coaches both offensively and defensively and should be able to put up some points against this d to keep it close like you said.

went with fish cause Im a homer and its the only good 1 o clock play I really liked, not convinced this pats offense is back up to speed but this mia def has been real shitty lately plus gronk is back of course.

think Im gonna hop on the kc teaser too.....

take it easy

[2daBank]

nice looking card bud, good luck and thanks for all the info.

tailing you on your zona play, like the Denver team total over than the entire game total for that one just in case rg3 starts playing shitty again, lil tidbit to add to your buffalo play and what I love about em this year is their coaching staff is a huge upgrade from last year, doug marrone knows how to get yards, he was the OC for the saints back in 06-08. in 2008 they ranked 1st in yards ( of course he had brees) and came up 15 yards short of breaking marinos single season passing yards record. then he left for head coach job at Syracuse in 09 . defensive coordinator mike pettine, was largely responsible for the jets amazing defense when he was there from 09-12, in 2009 they ranked 1st in yards against and points against. overall highly ranked as far as coaches both offensively and defensively and should be able to put up some points against this d to keep it close like you said.

went with fish cause Im a homer and its the only good 1 o clock play I really liked, not convinced this pats offense is back up to speed but this mia def has been real shitty lately plus gronk is back of course.

think Im gonna hop on the kc teaser too.....

take it easy

yea i like all the moves buf made in the offseason, including drafting manuel (just to bad he cant stay healthy), whats shocking to me is how terrible spiller has been but old man jackson keeps grinding out the yards..

i got no problem with the den tt ov, obviously i think they gonna hit it if it going over but i also have no doubt that skins will contribute at least 21-24 points if not more, dont think rg3 going backwords, think he and the coaching staff starting to trust his knee and while everytime i mention he has to run to be successful i get called racist that is the simple fact cause he cant just sit in the pocket and beat teams not cause he black but cause he is horrible at anticipating and throwing the ball before the wr breaks out of his route, but since the zone read is back in effect it makes his reads much simpler and makes guys a lot more opened. no worries from me that they score, my biggest worry is they will run a ton and try to play keep away, that line might hit 60 b4 kickoff, cant say ive ever seen that before, lol..

lot of folks seem to be liking the brownies for the upset, i just dont see it, if they go to arrowhead with that qb and beat the chiefs so be it ill pay to watch..

i dont hate the fish play, as i said i leaned them, just think the over has more room for error as if phins stay close i believe it going over. if pats cover still great chance it goes over.. pats offense up to speed? like as far as last yr no but they getting healthier and again i think teams like phins that throw lot of schemes to create pressure/confusion play more into the hands of a oline and qb like these guys. pretty sure pats 3rd down efficiency and red zone efficiency will start improving dramatically..hell mia could win and certainly could cover but i believe it gonna take 21 minimum to cover and 27 to have a chance at win so over seemed like better value to me as more ways to hit..

im really close to playing cincy, pretty well known ive been on jets quite a bit but think cincy kinda a bad matchup here..biggest issue is dont 100% trust cincy to remain focused after strong 2 road wins as that has been a problem for them at times, oh and fakerboy loves cincy and dont like being on same side as him as much as i do appreciate him continuing to fade my stl cardinals basically ensuring us the world series! lol

gl today brother..

[BiffTFinancial]

Morning, Bank. Good to see you on Skins/Broncos over, Cowboys/Lions overs, those were my first two leans when i saw the card. BOL today.

[2daBank]

Morning, Bank. Good to see you on Skins/Broncos over, Cowboys/Lions overs, those were my first two leans when i saw the card. BOL today.

at this point how can ya not be on a bronco over? the 1 week i passed that i can think of where i thought it might not hit against jags, jags screwed around and put up 19 to push it over.. little worried that shanny try and play keep away but peyton should score every time he on field like he has against all the nfc least defenses and i think rg3 be up to matching scores for a while anyway..dal/det feels bout identical to chi/det to me, where anything under 51 nice as they both gonna get 24 at least.. never hurts my feelings when we agree! check out the mia/pats over too if you got the time, really starting to like that 1. and woudlnt mind some thoughts on pit/oak, think it goes over but can make the case for under which i hate..

how bout those redbirds baby!! keeping me rolling even when i have terrible day in college fb think you right this the gm to lay off them, am worming to the over tho cause think sox can and prob will knock Lynn around, no lue what we see from buckholtz? not sure if dubrant can pitch again today? if sox manager knew cards like me dubrant would have started 2 gms this series cause he the kind of lefty that could throw 20 scoreless innings in a row on us, so glad he got pulled after only 2 innings of work cause we wouldnt have scored off him.. no real harm in passing, if cards win then they close it out in gm 5 (or the chase be on), if they lose they a easy bet in gm 5 as welll.. either way waino at home a easy bet no matter wtf lester uses to doctor ball, lol...

[killersweet]

Your picks look bank. goodluck. What do you think about teasing KC and Oak?

[BiffTFinancial]

at this point how can ya not be on a bronco over? the 1 week i passed that i can think of where i thought it might not hit against jags, jags screwed around and put up 19 to push it over.. little worried that shanny try and play keep away but peyton should score every time he on field like he has against all the nfc least defenses and i think rg3 be up to matching scores for a while anyway..dal/det feels bout identical to chi/det to me, where anything under 51 nice as they both gonna get 24 at least.. never hurts my feelings when we agree! check out the mia/pats over too if you got the time, really starting to like that 1. and woudlnt mind some thoughts on pit/oak, think it goes over but can make the case for under which i hate..

how bout those redbirds baby!! keeping me rolling even when i have terrible day in college fb think you right this the gm to lay off them, am worming to the over tho cause think sox can and prob will knock Lynn around, no lue what we see from buckholtz? not sure if dubrant can pitch again today? if sox manager knew cards like me dubrant would have started 2 gms this series cause he the kind of lefty that could throw 20 scoreless innings in a row on us, so glad he got pulled after only 2 innings of work cause we wouldnt have scored off him.. no real harm in passing, if cards win then they close it out in gm 5 (or the chase be on), if they lose they a easy bet in gm 5 as welll.. either way waino at home a easy bet no matter wtf lester uses to doctor ball, lol...

Will check out other totals and post back with thoughts. May tail you on Cards. Falcons are just so penetrating gutless. I've actually been meaning to get around to revamping my NFL model for totals. Maybe i can find time for that today. I can run totals faster than sides (and i prefer totals to sides) so makes sense to focus attention there. Need to devote significant attention to it in the offseason but it's not far from useable on a short-term basis.

Love them Redbirds. Agree on game four - pass or over.

[2daBank]

Your picks look bank. goodluck. What do you think about teasing KC and Oak?

i actually did another one of those 6 team teasers screwing around and oak is in it...just felt pretty good with kc and under for the 2 teamer..i think oak will give pit everything they want today so dont mind them over a td at all..

[2daBank]

Originally Posted by 2daBank

zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...
Originally Posted by 2daBank
Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..



dal/det ov 50.5 (1.5x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...



Originally Posted by 2daBank



2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)

kc-.5
cle/kc under45

i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..



Originally Posted by 2daBank

Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..

thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...

this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..

fish/pats ov 45 (1.5x)...i went back and forth on whether i wanted to play fish here or this total, ultimately i think the total leaves a little more room for error so this the route i took...i put this in the 48-51 range so clearly see some value here which i think is a product of pats early struggles,, gronk back for another week i feel will be even better with brady and all a sudden i think this offense is gonna get more efficient real quick..like the saints phins do some really good things scheme wise to create presser (granted with a far more talented individual pass rusher in wake), as i said before pats/saints gm i think teams that do these things dont effect a oline like pats and a qb like brady as much as they will figure out the protections and get into the right plays at the line, the last 3 weeks phins have given up damn near 68% completion percentage that not good when you already a team in the bottom half in yards per completion, you get your protections right you can beat this team with the pass. i think pats score between 27-31 in this gm..

on other side pats d is still just beat the hell up up the middle, there no way to sugar coat it, kelly not playing again..since this rash of injuries up the middle the last 3 weeks cincy rushed for 162, saints 131, and jets pounding them to the tune of 177 freaking rushing yards! look is mia run gm as strong as those teams? not really but think they may have figured some things out last week, granted against the bills who's run d isnt strong but id argue at this point it no worse than the pats so i think fish will have some success on the ground..maybe talib plays but can he be at full speed to deal with wallace? what pats gonna do with hartline and clay? tannehil is a gamer and when they get in the red zone they punch it in and dont think this depleted pats group will stop them... i got fish in the 21-24 point range here so if you add it up my low end is higher than this total...

pats could come out with the pissed off whipping stick which is why i choose total over taking the points cause even if that the case mai has been resiliant and will put up garbage points in that senerio..

my main man D8 like the lions, i kinda lean that way although i think it be close and really wanted a way to play cincy but not thrilled with them anything over a fg so i ended up with this little 3 team ml parlay..pays shade over 2 to 1 for a unit.

det ml
cincy ml
gb ml

[2daBank]

Originally Posted by 2daBank

Originally Posted by 2daBank
fish/pats ov 45 (1.5x)...i went back and forth on whether i wanted to play fish here or this total, ultimately i think the total leaves a little more room for error so this the route i took...i put this in the 48-51 range so clearly see some value here which i think is a product of pats early struggles,, gronk back for another week i feel will be even better with brady and all a sudden i think this offense is gonna get more efficient real quick..like the saints phins do some really good things scheme wise to create presser (granted with a far more talented individual pass rusher in wake), as i said before pats/saints gm i think teams that do these things dont effect a oline like pats and a qb like brady as much as they will figure out the protections and get into the right plays at the line, the last 3 weeks phins have given up damn near 68% completion percentage that not good when you already a team in the bottom half in yards per completion, you get your protections right you can beat this team with the pass. i think pats score between 27-31 in this gm..

on other side pats d is still just beat the hell up up the middle, there no way to sugar coat it, kelly not playing again..since this rash of injuries up the middle the last 3 weeks cincy rushed for 162, saints 131, and jets pounding them to the tune of 177 freaking rushing yards! look is mia run gm as strong as those teams? not really but think they may have figured some things out last week, granted against the bills who's run d isnt strong but id argue at this point it no worse than the pats so i think fish will have some success on the ground..maybe talib plays but can he be at full speed to deal with wallace? what pats gonna do with hartline and clay? tannehil is a gamer and when they get in the red zone they punch it in and dont think this depleted pats group will stop them... i got fish in the 21-24 point range here so if you add it up my low end is higher than this total...

pats could come out with the pissed off whipping stick which is why i choose total over taking the points cause even if that the case mai has been resiliant and will put up garbage points in that senerio..





zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..

lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...

on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..

if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..

i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...
Originally Posted by 2daBank
Originally Posted by 2daBank
the one i played already..

skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..



dal/det ov 50.5 (1.5x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...



Originally Posted by 2daBank



2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)

kc-.5
cle/kc under45

i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..



Originally Posted by 2daBank

Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..

thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...

this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..







my main man D8 like the lions, i kinda lean that way although i think it be close and really wanted a way to play cincy but not thrilled with them anything over a fg so i ended up with this little 3 team ml parlay..pays shade over 2 to 1 for a unit.

det ml
cincy ml
gb ml

pretty confident this is my entire card..the only possible add besides live or halftimes is the over in oak which im still debating and maybe the over in the night cap (lot of damn overs i like today, not sure if that good)..