Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Peyton Manning leads a banged-up Colts team into Jacksonville for Thursday night's NFL tilt, though that doesn't seem to be of concern to 71% of the bettors that are laying their dough on Indianapolis (-6).
If you’re making a list of the Colts’ injuries, you had better check it twice before laying your money down on Indianapolis (10-4, 6-7-1 ATS) for its Thursday night (8:15 PM ET) tilt against the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9, 4-10 ATS).
The multitude of ailments on both sides of the ball hasn’t stopped public bettors from pounding the Colts as 6-point road chalk, with Indy listed as 6½-point favorites on the betting odds at more than one sportsbook. About 71% of wagers on the spread have come in on the Colts through Wednesday night, meaning those capping the game don’t seem too concerned Indianapolis could be without up to eight regulars.
Let’s start with what we do know: First-string running back Joseph Addai is expected to start despite a lingering ankle injury that has him officially listed as day-to-day. While that’s key information, the real question for Addai is how many snaps will he play, and at what level of effectiveness will he perform?
Thing is, not even Tony Dungy has the magic bullet on those questions, so the best thing to do is take the news on Addai with a grain of salt. Sure, he’ll play, but veteran backup Dominic Rhodes is likely to see his fair share of touches in the backfield. Rhodes ran for 86 yards on 20 carries with the go-ahead touchdown for the Colts (-16½) in their 31-21 escape against the Detroit Lions last week at Lucas Oil Field, which was actually a pretty solid performance considering the state of the Indy running game.
The Colts have the worst run offense in the NFL at 80.1 yards per game and a subpar 3.4 yards per carry, so Rhodes’ showing is promising if he has to take more of the load off Addai. It won’t get any easier against the Jaguars, who are certainly no Detroit Lions.
To make matters worse for Peyton & Co., center Jeff Saturday (calf), and tackles Tony Ugoh (knee) and Charlie Johnson (shin) are banged up on the offensive line, although all three are listed as probable and are expected to play.
It’s no surprise, then: The Colts will have to get the cover through the air, insofar as Manning leans more heavily on wide receiver Reggie Wayne than usual. Tight end Dallas Clark is hurting with a hip injury, while old reliable Marvin Harrison is questionable after having an MRI on his wonky knee on Wednesday afternoon. Clark is probable and slated to start, while it is increasingly likely the Colts will try to clinch the first AFC Wild Card spot without Harrison, Manning’s favorite target.
Indy backers had better not bank too hard on the defense, either. Defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot), and safeties Antoine Bethea (ankle), and the all-important Bob Sanders (ankle) could all sit out, while linebacker Gary Brackett is out indefinitely with an ankle injury of his own.
Sanders’ (day-to-day) potential absence is particularly problematic, because he’s the glue holding the Colts’ run defense together. With Sanders, Indy can plausibly say that it has a run defense; without him they had better pray Manning can get the job done on offense.
Jacksonville ran all over Indianapolis in a 23-21 victory when the teams last met on September 21, as Sanders sat out with a high ankle sprain. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined for 236 yards on 48 carries to lead the Jags to the bank as 4-point road underdogs, while kicker Josh Scobee’s 51-yard field goal with 0:04 remaining won the game.
The bigger story was how the dominant Jacksonville running game allowed QB David Garrard to control the clock with the Jaguars on the road. The Jags kept the ball for an amazing 42 minutes in the matchup, meaning the Colts were lucky to keep the game that close.
Optimistic Colts backers will tell you the game was an anomaly, and that Indy is a much better team – and wager – these days. They’re right: The Colts have won seven straight SU, with a modest 3-3-1 ATS record during the hot streak. Problem is, the run has come against some pretty mediocre opposition lately (Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Diego, Houston), meaning Indianapolis might not be the wonder at the window square bettors are making it out to be this week.
The total for the Colts-Jaguars matchup is currently listed at 44.
Peyton Manning leads a banged-up Colts team into Jacksonville for Thursday night's NFL tilt, though that doesn't seem to be of concern to 71% of the bettors that are laying their dough on Indianapolis (-6).
If you’re making a list of the Colts’ injuries, you had better check it twice before laying your money down on Indianapolis (10-4, 6-7-1 ATS) for its Thursday night (8:15 PM ET) tilt against the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9, 4-10 ATS).
The multitude of ailments on both sides of the ball hasn’t stopped public bettors from pounding the Colts as 6-point road chalk, with Indy listed as 6½-point favorites on the betting odds at more than one sportsbook. About 71% of wagers on the spread have come in on the Colts through Wednesday night, meaning those capping the game don’t seem too concerned Indianapolis could be without up to eight regulars.
Let’s start with what we do know: First-string running back Joseph Addai is expected to start despite a lingering ankle injury that has him officially listed as day-to-day. While that’s key information, the real question for Addai is how many snaps will he play, and at what level of effectiveness will he perform?
Thing is, not even Tony Dungy has the magic bullet on those questions, so the best thing to do is take the news on Addai with a grain of salt. Sure, he’ll play, but veteran backup Dominic Rhodes is likely to see his fair share of touches in the backfield. Rhodes ran for 86 yards on 20 carries with the go-ahead touchdown for the Colts (-16½) in their 31-21 escape against the Detroit Lions last week at Lucas Oil Field, which was actually a pretty solid performance considering the state of the Indy running game.
The Colts have the worst run offense in the NFL at 80.1 yards per game and a subpar 3.4 yards per carry, so Rhodes’ showing is promising if he has to take more of the load off Addai. It won’t get any easier against the Jaguars, who are certainly no Detroit Lions.
To make matters worse for Peyton & Co., center Jeff Saturday (calf), and tackles Tony Ugoh (knee) and Charlie Johnson (shin) are banged up on the offensive line, although all three are listed as probable and are expected to play.
It’s no surprise, then: The Colts will have to get the cover through the air, insofar as Manning leans more heavily on wide receiver Reggie Wayne than usual. Tight end Dallas Clark is hurting with a hip injury, while old reliable Marvin Harrison is questionable after having an MRI on his wonky knee on Wednesday afternoon. Clark is probable and slated to start, while it is increasingly likely the Colts will try to clinch the first AFC Wild Card spot without Harrison, Manning’s favorite target.
Indy backers had better not bank too hard on the defense, either. Defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot), and safeties Antoine Bethea (ankle), and the all-important Bob Sanders (ankle) could all sit out, while linebacker Gary Brackett is out indefinitely with an ankle injury of his own.
Sanders’ (day-to-day) potential absence is particularly problematic, because he’s the glue holding the Colts’ run defense together. With Sanders, Indy can plausibly say that it has a run defense; without him they had better pray Manning can get the job done on offense.
Jacksonville ran all over Indianapolis in a 23-21 victory when the teams last met on September 21, as Sanders sat out with a high ankle sprain. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined for 236 yards on 48 carries to lead the Jags to the bank as 4-point road underdogs, while kicker Josh Scobee’s 51-yard field goal with 0:04 remaining won the game.
The bigger story was how the dominant Jacksonville running game allowed QB David Garrard to control the clock with the Jaguars on the road. The Jags kept the ball for an amazing 42 minutes in the matchup, meaning the Colts were lucky to keep the game that close.
Optimistic Colts backers will tell you the game was an anomaly, and that Indy is a much better team – and wager – these days. They’re right: The Colts have won seven straight SU, with a modest 3-3-1 ATS record during the hot streak. Problem is, the run has come against some pretty mediocre opposition lately (Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Diego, Houston), meaning Indianapolis might not be the wonder at the window square bettors are making it out to be this week.
The total for the Colts-Jaguars matchup is currently listed at 44.
