NFL Week 16: Power Plays of the Week!
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
These are two teams headed in opposite directions, the Colts at 10-4 this year are winners of 7 in a row, the Jags on the other hand weren't very good to begin with and they've really just gotten worse throughout the course of the season. Before we get into any stats or trends I must say that this is one ugly looking game to cap. I think you'll agree that this thing is pretty dam close to a no play. With that said, there's a decent amount of history between these two squads. Their games are always tight and Jacksonville actually beat Indy this year at Indy, in another close one.
But there are a few interesting things about that last game that should be considered: Indianapolis was moving the ball rather well and fairly easy against Jacksonville while the Jags offense was absolutely invisible in the 1st half..... but, there was one great play on defense that kept them in the game - Mathis intercepted Manning for a 61 yard TOUCHDOWN with 6 minutes left to go in the half. If it wasn't for that play it would have been 14-3 Colts (instead of 14-10) at the half and would have completely changed the outcome of the game. Mathis is a game changer on defense, but luckily for the Colts he wont be playing on Thursday night! Several other players who contributed to that win in Indy wont be playing either. Fred Taylor, who ran for 121 yards on the ground (including a huge 34 yard run) will not be playing. Matt Jones their leading receiver that day (5 for 43) is suspended & not playing. Greg Jones their blocking FB (who had a couple nice runs that day) is out. Several other players are out on defense including Linebacker Daryl Smith and Defensive tackle Tony McDaniel. Not to mention the fact that Jacksonville's been banged up on the O-line all year!
Jones-Drew and Garrard are really going to half to step up big time to stay in this one. They should be able to utilize play-action and I assume they should be able to run on Indy at home. Garrard threw for 238 yards and 2 TDs vs. GB so I guess he could have a decent game Thursday, but I just dont see him playing that well against a defense with a healthy Freeny & Sanders. The Colts really don't have any significant injuries at all and they're obviously happy to have Jeff Saturday back. They weren't impressive last week against Detriot, but the Lions are so desperate for a win. And that brings me to this question, is the rivalry between these two teams enough to give Jacksonville a shot at a win? It's tough to say but I don't believe so! Jacksonville cant stop the run (they're ranked 20th), nor can they stop the pass (they're ranked 30th). So how do they win this game? I havent been able to come up with an answer. But most of their games with Indy have been decided by eight points or less. A play on the line is a tough call, lets take a look at the numbers.
Jacksonville: Home Stats - On offense the Jags are averaging 19 ppg and raking up a total of 302 ypg. On defense the Jags are letting up an average of 24 ppg and 332 ypg.
Indianapolis: Away Stats - On offense the Colts are averaging 20 ppg and putting up a total of 300 ypg. On defense the Colts are letting up an average of 22 ppg and 312 ypg.
So just by the numbers alone, Jacksonville +6 is the obvious play here. A 23-20 score sounds right according to the numbers but this Jacksonville team has had a horrible 2nd half and they've lost 6 out of their last 8 and 4 out of their last 5. I just can't put my money on this team. With that said, the following play is a hunch play and shouldn't be considered anything more.
Score Prediction: Colts 27, Jacksonville 17
Thursday's Play: Colts -6 (1 Unit)
These are two teams headed in opposite directions, the Colts at 10-4 this year are winners of 7 in a row, the Jags on the other hand weren't very good to begin with and they've really just gotten worse throughout the course of the season. Before we get into any stats or trends I must say that this is one ugly looking game to cap. I think you'll agree that this thing is pretty dam close to a no play. With that said, there's a decent amount of history between these two squads. Their games are always tight and Jacksonville actually beat Indy this year at Indy, in another close one.
But there are a few interesting things about that last game that should be considered: Indianapolis was moving the ball rather well and fairly easy against Jacksonville while the Jags offense was absolutely invisible in the 1st half..... but, there was one great play on defense that kept them in the game - Mathis intercepted Manning for a 61 yard TOUCHDOWN with 6 minutes left to go in the half. If it wasn't for that play it would have been 14-3 Colts (instead of 14-10) at the half and would have completely changed the outcome of the game. Mathis is a game changer on defense, but luckily for the Colts he wont be playing on Thursday night! Several other players who contributed to that win in Indy wont be playing either. Fred Taylor, who ran for 121 yards on the ground (including a huge 34 yard run) will not be playing. Matt Jones their leading receiver that day (5 for 43) is suspended & not playing. Greg Jones their blocking FB (who had a couple nice runs that day) is out. Several other players are out on defense including Linebacker Daryl Smith and Defensive tackle Tony McDaniel. Not to mention the fact that Jacksonville's been banged up on the O-line all year!
Jones-Drew and Garrard are really going to half to step up big time to stay in this one. They should be able to utilize play-action and I assume they should be able to run on Indy at home. Garrard threw for 238 yards and 2 TDs vs. GB so I guess he could have a decent game Thursday, but I just dont see him playing that well against a defense with a healthy Freeny & Sanders. The Colts really don't have any significant injuries at all and they're obviously happy to have Jeff Saturday back. They weren't impressive last week against Detriot, but the Lions are so desperate for a win. And that brings me to this question, is the rivalry between these two teams enough to give Jacksonville a shot at a win? It's tough to say but I don't believe so! Jacksonville cant stop the run (they're ranked 20th), nor can they stop the pass (they're ranked 30th). So how do they win this game? I havent been able to come up with an answer. But most of their games with Indy have been decided by eight points or less. A play on the line is a tough call, lets take a look at the numbers.
Jacksonville: Home Stats - On offense the Jags are averaging 19 ppg and raking up a total of 302 ypg. On defense the Jags are letting up an average of 24 ppg and 332 ypg.
Indianapolis: Away Stats - On offense the Colts are averaging 20 ppg and putting up a total of 300 ypg. On defense the Colts are letting up an average of 22 ppg and 312 ypg.
So just by the numbers alone, Jacksonville +6 is the obvious play here. A 23-20 score sounds right according to the numbers but this Jacksonville team has had a horrible 2nd half and they've lost 6 out of their last 8 and 4 out of their last 5. I just can't put my money on this team. With that said, the following play is a hunch play and shouldn't be considered anything more.
Score Prediction: Colts 27, Jacksonville 17
Thursday's Play: Colts -6 (1 Unit)
