Week 16 = Free Money
I haven't been around the last couple weeks because I lost a good feel for the ebb and flow of the NFL. Looking at the games this week, everything makes sense again. Here are some early plays to book now B
DETROIT+3.5-115 // TOP BET
BUFFALO+4.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
NEW ORLEANS+3-120 // BOOKMAKER
TAMPA BAY-3-110 // BOOKMAKER
Great value on Detroit after their let down against the reeling Cardinals. Atlanta had been criticized in recent weeks for a record that was outpacing their play on the field, but the blowout against the Giants has quieted that for now. 88% of Public Bets on Atlanta, but when the SBR Consensus comes out, I guarantee a Public/Sharp split and some "RLM" back to 3.
Buffalo just got embarrased in Toronto and the Dolphins are coming off a win hosting Jacksonville. These teams are fairly equal, but I think Buffalo has the clear offensive advantage w/ Spiller, even against that MIA front 4 as well as in their receiving corps. Buffalo's front 4 has been playing at a high level the last few weeks outside of that game in Seattle, but Miami doesn't have the same multi-dimensional offensive attack that Seattle has, and I don't see them having a problem containing Miami's backfield. IMO, line should be 3, so I looking getting the hook across the 4. Public action is split, but line is coming down to 4 almost across the board which might indicate early sharp action on the +4.5. Book it now
New Orleans stock pretty high, but Dallas isn't exactly in the gutter in the public eye either. I like New Orleans for a lot of reasons getting a FG. Dallas has won a lot of close games with margins of victory of 7, 6, 5, 15, 3, 5, 1 and 3 with the 15 point win being a late push against the Eagles in their first meeting. After all their injuries on the interior, Dallas' defensive strength is in their secondary, and I trust Brees and his weapons to be able to pick apart holes in that defense. Dallas also does not have a great HFA in that cavern of a stadium. I don't know if this line moves to the 2.5, but NO seems like the clear side here on the 3 and the public so far agrees with 79% of bets on NO.
Tampa Bay laid the egg in NO due to a ton of turnovers, but I expect Schiano to motivate his guys after humiliation like that. St Louis was similarly routed in a game that's score looked closer at the end than it actually was. I've liked both of these teams as undervalued dogs, but at the end of the day, TB is the better team and their only laying 3. Their most obvious hole is with their corners, but the Rams don't have the personnel to really exploit it like elite quarterbacks are able to.
More plays and leans as the week goes on.
DETROIT+3.5-115 // TOP BET
BUFFALO+4.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
NEW ORLEANS+3-120 // BOOKMAKER
TAMPA BAY-3-110 // BOOKMAKER
Great value on Detroit after their let down against the reeling Cardinals. Atlanta had been criticized in recent weeks for a record that was outpacing their play on the field, but the blowout against the Giants has quieted that for now. 88% of Public Bets on Atlanta, but when the SBR Consensus comes out, I guarantee a Public/Sharp split and some "RLM" back to 3.
Buffalo just got embarrased in Toronto and the Dolphins are coming off a win hosting Jacksonville. These teams are fairly equal, but I think Buffalo has the clear offensive advantage w/ Spiller, even against that MIA front 4 as well as in their receiving corps. Buffalo's front 4 has been playing at a high level the last few weeks outside of that game in Seattle, but Miami doesn't have the same multi-dimensional offensive attack that Seattle has, and I don't see them having a problem containing Miami's backfield. IMO, line should be 3, so I looking getting the hook across the 4. Public action is split, but line is coming down to 4 almost across the board which might indicate early sharp action on the +4.5. Book it now
New Orleans stock pretty high, but Dallas isn't exactly in the gutter in the public eye either. I like New Orleans for a lot of reasons getting a FG. Dallas has won a lot of close games with margins of victory of 7, 6, 5, 15, 3, 5, 1 and 3 with the 15 point win being a late push against the Eagles in their first meeting. After all their injuries on the interior, Dallas' defensive strength is in their secondary, and I trust Brees and his weapons to be able to pick apart holes in that defense. Dallas also does not have a great HFA in that cavern of a stadium. I don't know if this line moves to the 2.5, but NO seems like the clear side here on the 3 and the public so far agrees with 79% of bets on NO.
Tampa Bay laid the egg in NO due to a ton of turnovers, but I expect Schiano to motivate his guys after humiliation like that. St Louis was similarly routed in a game that's score looked closer at the end than it actually was. I've liked both of these teams as undervalued dogs, but at the end of the day, TB is the better team and their only laying 3. Their most obvious hole is with their corners, but the Rams don't have the personnel to really exploit it like elite quarterbacks are able to.
More plays and leans as the week goes on.
