Week 16 = Free Money

[Hombrebueno]

Atlanta needs to win Det doesn't. Atlanta plays before both SF and GB. Atlanta is the play. I'm sorry if "experienced" investors lack the needed knowledge for this game. 27-17.

My experience is confidence pools and I can tell you no way i have any confidence in Det to cover.

[2daBank]

Atlanta needs to win Det doesn't. Atlanta plays before both SF and GB. Atlanta is the play. I'm sorry if "experienced" investors lack the needed knowledge for this game. 27-17.

My experience is confidence pools and I can tell you no way i have any confidence in Det to cover.

this kind of thinking tends to get folks buried the last few weeks of the season,,not saying i disagree with atl as i couldnt back det but overall this is really bad logic to place a wager on..

[2daBank]

The yards per point stats for both teams were pretty glaring in favor of ATL. Never factored that stat in ... usually just red zone, but I think the one you brought up is much more telling, though I do think a stat like that will eventually regress a bit more to the mean. My capping process usually goes: what I think the line should be, what I think it will be based on last couple games and public perception, then look at actual line and see if there are any glaring discrepancies. From there, I'll cap the games based on stats/injuries/weather/HFA and see if there are any more discrepancies and if it is congruent with my own perceptions.

In this case, my thinking was similar to what Slim was saying above; that Detroit is a 'live dog'. They are a team like TB, STL, CLE, SD, CAR, ARI, SEA, CIN, MIA, MIN, etc have been through various points in the year that shouldn't ever figure to lose by more than a TD and SHOULD always be a good bet as a home dog getting more than a FG.

I appreciate the insight, and there are very few other people on this board that would cause me to re-thinkt my initial assessment.

I love ypp, I guess maybe could be a little regression involved w it since turnovers play a factor and most would say lot of luck w those(not sure how much I buy that, to a extent I guess), but generally you look at the top 10 offrnsively and defensivly and you will find it mostly littered w the best teams in the league yr in and yr out...

[BennyFang]

this kind of thinking tends to get folks buried the last few weeks of the season,,not saying i disagree with atl as i couldnt back det but overall this is really bad logic to place a wager on..

I played the Falcons -3 in this particular case....but this is so true, really anytime, but especially weeks 16 & 17.

[MobFade]

Booked a 2 team 6 point -110:

CAROLINA-2.5/BALTIMORE+8.5

I don't plan on betting either team ATS and this looks pretty good to me. Other candidates were SD+8.5 which I already bought to the 3 ATS, HOU-1.5 which I could try to middle with the +7.5 I already booked on MIN, and IND-.5 in KC.

[MobFade]

I love ypp, I guess maybe could be a little regression involved w it since turnovers play a factor and most would say lot of luck w those(not sure how much I buy that, to a extent I guess), but generally you look at the top 10 offrnsively and defensivly and you will find it mostly littered w the best teams in the league yr in and yr out...

RJ Bell brought up the point on the Blazing 5 that turnovers are another thing that some people believe regress toward the mean. KC offense and CHI defense this year being good examples, but there are still obviously teams that turn it over more/less than average, or generate more/less. Denver was also a team this year that lost the ball the first 10 times they put it on the ground. Probably more to do with variance and less to do with poor play than people would think.

[BennyFang]

RJ Bell brought up the point on the Blazing 5 that turnovers are another thing that some people believe regress toward the mean. KC offense and CHI defense this year being good examples, but there are still obviously teams that turn it over more/less than average, or generate more/less. Denver was also a team this year that lost the ball the first 10 times they put it on the ground. Probably more to do with variance and less to do with poor play than people would think.

I agree 100%, especially with regard to fumbles. It's weird in that it seems more like a yearly thing as opposed to a regression within the season with teams.

[MobFade]

I agree 100%, especially with regard to fumbles. It's weird in that it seems more like a yearly thing as opposed to a regression within the season with teams.

Ya, 16 games just isn't large enough of a sample size, and it's especially difficult to quantify turnovers especially early in the season with an even smaller sample if you were to try and put it in an algorithm.

[2daBank]

yea fumbles and recovering them most def some luck involved (at one point phins were on a crazy run of like never recovering fumbles they forced, obviously fluky the way the ball bounces lots of the time), ints i tend to think a lot less...and like you saying nfl a lot different when it comes to regression as such a small amount of gms that may never happen that particular year.. and like i said with ypp turnovers no doubt play a factor in, by no means the determining factor but a factor as much as all the others so maybe a stat that has some regression, just another tool/stat and something i always take into consideration....

[MobFade]

Philadelphia is the lean hosting the skins. Another dog, I know I know, but if this gets to 7 it's free money. Foles ha had plenty of time to get his feet under him and RG3 should be slightly limited. This defense is still solid, especially front 7 which should have enough talent and tape to limit RG3 and Morris. Skins defense is a joke.

BUT WAIT! This is must win for the Skins! Just because ESPN says they'll win the division, doesnt mean they will. Improving Philly+7 at home all day. If it doesn't get there, I'll buy 6.5 to 7-125

[MobFade]

pittsburgh-3-120 // legends

[2daBank]

Philadelphia is the lean hosting the skins. Another dog, I know I know, but if this gets to 7 it's free money. Foles ha had plenty of time to get his feet under him and RG3 should be slightly limited. This defense is still solid, especially front 7 which should have enough talent and tape to limit RG3 and Morris. Skins defense is a joke.

BUT WAIT! This is must win for the Skins! Just because ESPN says they'll win the division, doesnt mean they will. Improving Philly+7 at home all day. If it doesn't get there, I'll buy 6.5 to 7-125

i really like the over in this one,,i agree phi will come to play and it be good for the over if they cover as i thin both teams get well into the 20's

[2daBank]

empty yards,,,my guess if you look at those meaningless stats again last night det numbers look pretty good, like i said empty yards......gl today