How will you acvount for the injuries on phi?
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Comment -
Alright, here it is.
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
PhiladelphiaEagles
4 - 9
29%
27%
-52%
Group 7
18.9
19.0
17.0
-26.6
Away
CincinnatiBengals
7 - 6
56%
27%
26%
Group 2
26.8
24.0
23.0
26.6
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
AtlantaFalcons
11 - 2
88%
71%
35%
Group 2
21.5
24.0
27.0
-5.6
Away
NewYorkGiants
8 - 5
42%
71%
28%
Group 3
18.4
27.0
13.0
5.6
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
BaltimoreRavens
9 - 4
74%
81%
12%
Group 4
18.9
23.0
22.0
-16.4
Away
DenverBroncos
10 - 3
70%
71%
41%
Group 1
23.4
31.0
31.0
16.4
Record
Field Correlation
Div
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
ChicagoBears
8 - 5
74%
28%
54%
Group 2
21.5
23.0
10.0
-1.0
Away
GreenBayPackers
9 - 4
42%
57%
28%
Group 3
18.4
24.0
19.3
1.0
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
ClevelandBrowns
5 - 8
59%
0%
-2%
Group 5
23.2
20.0
17.5
-14.8
Away
WashingtonRedskins
7 - 6
42%
14%
-4%
Group 4
21.3
28.0
31.0
14.8
Record
Field Correlation
Div
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
HoustonTexans
11 - 2
74%
57%
62%
Group 1
18.9
27.0
27.5
28.1
Away
IndianapolisColts
9 - 4
42%
42%
-10%
Group 5
21.4
23.0
22.0
-28.1
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
MiamiDolphins
5 - 8
44%
30%
-12%
Group 7
27.3
17.0
35.0
18.2
Away
JacksonvilleJaguars
2 - 11
14%
20%
-92%
Group 8
26.8
15.0
10.0
-18.2
Record
Field Correlation
Div
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
NewOrleansSaints
5 - 8
44%
28%
-5%
Group 6
21.5
27.0
#DIV/0!
-14.9
Away
TampaBayBuccaneers
6 - 7
42%
28%
48%
Group 3
23.6
27.0
21.5
14.9
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
St.LouisRams
6 - 6
59%
50%
-12%
Group 6
18.9
17.0
18.5
-9.2
Away
MinnesotaVikings
7 - 6
14%
50%
6%
Group 5
23.6
21.0
17.0
9.2
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
ArizonaCardinals
4 - 9
44%
20%
-46%
Group 8
21.5
17.0
20.0
-36.6
Away
DetroitLions
4 - 9
28%
30%
-12%
Group 3
27.4
26.0
31.0
36.6
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
BuffaloBills
5 - 8
44%
14%
-38%
Group 5
18.9
24.0
#DIV/0!
-15.9
Away
SeattleSeahawks
8 - 5
28%
27%
61%
Group 2
21.3
23.0
27.0
15.9
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
SanDiegoChargers
5 - 8
29%
0%
-5%
Group 6
18.9
24.0
24.0
-0.6
Away
CarolinaPanthers
4 - 9
28%
0%
-20%
Group 6
23.6
21.0
21.0
0.6
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
DallasCowboys
7 - 6
44%
27%
16%
Group 4
23.2
23.0
34.5
-3.7
Away
PittsburghSteelers
7 - 6
42%
41%
-10%
Group 4
23.4
23.0
23.3
3.7
Record
Field Correlation
Div
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
OaklandRaiders
3 - 10
29%
14%
-81%
Group 8
27.3
17.0
26.0
7.2
Away
KansasCityChiefs
2 - 11
14%
0%
-79%
Group 8
27.4
13.0
16.0
-7.2
Record
Field Correlation
Non-Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
NewEnglandPatriots
10 - 3
74%
14%
90%
Group 1
19.9
34.0
41.7
18.5
Away
SanFrancisco49ers
9 - 3
56%
41%
100%
Group 1
21.4
27.0
45.0
-18.5
Record
Field Correlation
Conf
SoS
Group Rank
League Median PPG
Team Median PPG
Grouped PPG
Match Up Result
Home
TennesseeTitans
4 - 9
29%
30%
####
Group 7
18.9
19.0
21.0
-4.0
Away
NewYorkJets
6 - 7
42%
40%
-64%
Group 7
26.8
17.0
29.0
4.0 Comment -
Currently, the formula I'm using doesn't account for injuries at all. GLOriginally posted by RomanovComment -
Here are week 16 projections
There were several games that stood out within the formula. I’ll be betting on those games but was hoping to get some feedback to make sure I’m not overlooking the obvious. Thanks.
SD +2.5
CHI -5.5
STL +3
CIN +4
BUF +4.5
NO +3
ATL -3.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result Spread Home DetroitLions 4 - 10 25% 27% -26% Group 3 20.8 25 15.5 -11 3.5 Away AtlantaFalcons 12 - 2 72% 73% 49% Group 2 22.7 25.5 #DIV/0! 11 -3.5
Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home BaltimoreRavens 9 - 5 63% 15% 21% Group 4 20.8 23 #DIV/0! -4.7 2.5 Away NewYorkGiants 8 - 6 43% 15% 12% Group 2 21.6 26.5 23.5 4.7 -2.5
Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home CarolinaPanthers 5 - 9 25% 15% 9% Group 6 20.8 21 #DIV/0! 4.9 -8.5 Away OaklandRaiders 4 - 10 14% 0% -84% Group 5 22.5 17 32 -4.9 8.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home DallasCowboys 8 - 6 51% 45% 19% Group 3 23.2 23.5 13 -3.9 -3 Away NewOrleansSaints 6 - 8 29% 36% 17% Group 1 22.7 27.5 26 3.9 3
Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home GreenBayPackers 10 - 4 76% 29% 28% Group 6 24.4 24 23 10 -13 Away TennesseeTitans 5 - 9 29% 15% -69% Group 5 22.5 16.5 #DIV/0! -10 13
Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home HoustonTexans 12 - 2 76% 29% 62% Group 4 20.8 28 33 10.6 -7.5 Away MinnesotaVikings 8 - 6 29% 29% 35% Group 4 21.6 21 20 -10.6 7.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home JacksonvilleJaguars 2 - 12 13% 18% -127% Group 8 23.2 14.5 21.7 -38.2 14.5 Away NewEnglandPatriots 10 - 4 72% 82% 100% Group 1 25.3 34 23 38.2 -14.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home KansasCityChiefs 2 - 12 13% 0% -111% Group 7 23.2 13 13 -17.6 6.5 Away IndianapolisColts 9 - 5 43% 54% -6% Group 1 23.5 22 15.7 17.6 -6.5
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home MiamiDolphins 6 - 8 51% 13% -18% Group 8 20.8 18.5 13 -3.4 -4.5 Away BuffaloBills 5 - 9 29% 13% -109% Group 3 25.3 21.5 26.5 3.4 4.5
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home PhiladelphiaEagles 4 - 10 25% 13% -68% Group 5 20.8 18 18 -15.2
Away WashingtonRedskins 8 - 6 58% 40% 12% Group 2 23.6 29.5 31 15.2
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home PittsburghSteelers 7 - 7 51% 27% -6% Group 7 23.1 23.5 23 -9 -4 Away CincinnatiBengals 8 - 6 72% 13% 24% Group 3 23.5 25.5 25.5 9 4
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home TampaBayBuccaneers 6 - 8 38% 27% 14% Group 2 20.8 25 21.5 9.9 -3 Away St.LouisRams 6 - 7 29% 45% -24% Group 6 21 18 20.5 -9.9 3
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home DenverBroncos 11 - 3 63% 73% 65% Group 1 22.4 31 36 18.7 -13.5 Away ClevelandBrowns 5 - 9 14% 45% -9% Group 6 22.8 20 13.5 -18.7 13.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home ArizonaCardinals 5 - 9 51% 27% -32% Group 8 23 17 #DIV/0! -16.5 5.5 Away ChicagoBears 8 - 6 43% 45% 84% Group 7 25.3 20 41 16.5 -5.5
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home SeattleSeahawks 9 - 5 76% 13% 94% Group 4 24.4 23.5 22.5 -0.8 -1 Away SanFrancisco49ers 10 - 3 72% 27% 74% Group 5 21.6 27 13 0.8 1
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home NewYorkJets 6 - 8 38% 36% -57% Group 7 20.8 17 8.7 -3.3 -2.5 Away SanDiegoChargers 5 - 9 43% 45% 4% Group 8 23.5 23.5 31.5 3.3 2.5
Stand out games
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home NewYorkJets 6 - 8 38% 36% -57% Group 7 20.8 17 8.7 -3.3 -2.5 Away SanDiegoChargers 5 - 9 43% 45% 4% Group 8 23.5 23.5 31.5 3.3 2.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home ArizonaCardinals 5 - 9 51% 27% -32% Group 8 23 17 #DIV/0! -16.5 5.5 Away ChicagoBears 8 - 6 43% 45% 84% Group 7 25.3 20 41 16.5 -5.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home TampaBayBuccaneers 6 - 8 38% 27% 14% Group 2 20.8 25 21.5 9.9 -3 Away St.LouisRams 6 - 7 29% 45% -24% Group 6 21 18 20.5 -9.9 3
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home PittsburghSteelers 7 - 7 51% 27% -6% Group 7 23.1 23.5 23 -9 -4 Away CincinnatiBengals 8 - 6 72% 13% 24% Group 3 23.5 25.5 25.5 9 4
Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home MiamiDolphins 6 - 8 51% 13% -18% Group 8 20.8 18.5 13 -3.4 -4.5 Away BuffaloBills 5 - 9 29% 13% -109% Group 3 25.3 21.5 26.5 3.4 4.5
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result
Home DallasCowboys 8 - 6 51% 45% 19% Group 3 23.2 23.5 13 -3.9 -3 Away NewOrleansSaints 6 - 8 29% 36% 17% Group 1 22.7 27.5 26 3.9 3
Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped PPG Match Up Result Spread Home DetroitLions 4 - 10 25% 27% -26% Group 3 20.8 25 15.5 -11 3.5 Away AtlantaFalcons 12 - 2 72% 73% 49% Group 2 22.7 25.5 #DIV/0! 11 -3.5 Comment -
Any thoughts on the games I've pointed out?...Think they'll cover the spread?Comment -
Week 17 Projections below, my picks for the week are Jets +3/ NE -10/ Baltimore +120/ Ten -4/ Chi -3/ NO -5.5/ St. Louis +11
GL
Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home AtlantaFalcons Group 2 NFC NCS 22% 77% 25.7 24.0 23.3 21 56.9 O/U 42.0
Away TampaBayBuccaneers Group 4 NFC NCS -16% 41% 20.9 22.0 22.7 21 48.0 ATS 0.0
Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home BuffaloBills Group 7 AFC ACE -2% 33% 24.4 23.0 21.7 21 50.5 O/U 42.0 -3 Away NewYorkJets Group 6 AFC ACE 51% 41% 22.5 20.0 21.7 21 50.7 ATS 0.0 3 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home CincinnatiBengals Group 3 AFC ACN -58% 33% 23.8 23.0 27.3 27 52.4 O/U 62.0 -2.5 Away BaltimoreRavens Group 3 AFC ACN 58% 55% 24.2 24.0 35.0 35 52.6 ATS 8.0 2.5 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home DetroitLions Group 7 NFC NCN -6% 22% 19.1 20.0 15.7 14 45.8 O/U 49.0 3 Away ChicagoBears Group 3 NFC NCN 10% 55% 33.6 30.5 35.0 35 57.6 ATS 21.0 -3 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home IndianapolisColts Group 6 AFC ACS -28% 66% 17.7 18.0 23.7 21 46.7 O/U 48.0 7 Away HoustonTexans Group 1 AFC ACS -55% 82% 30.2 28.5 27.3 27 57.7 ATS 6.0 -7 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home MinnesotaVikings Group 3 NFC NCN -10% 66% 26.4 26.5 21.3 21 50.5 O/U 41.0 3 Away GreenBayPackers Group 2 NFC NCN -25% 55% 24.0 25.5 20.3 20 55.0 ATS 1.0 -3 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home NewEnglandPatriots Group 1 AFC ACE 62% 55% 30.2 29.5 42.3 42 61.9 O/U 56.0 -10 Away MiamiDolphins Group 5 AFC ACE
27% 15.6 16.5 16.7 14 44.2 ATS 28.0 10 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home NewOrleansSaints Group 4 NFC NCS 7% 44% 27.6 27.5 34.3 34 52.3 O/U 51.0 -5.5 Away CarolinaPanthers Group 4 NFC NCS -16% 41% 24.6 27.0 18.3 17 51.4 ATS 17.0 5.5 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home NewYorkGiants Group 4 NFC NCE 38% 55% 26.1 27.0 17.0 17 57.5 O/U 31.0 -7 Away PhiladelphiaEagles Group 8 NFC NCE -30% 27% 16.3 14.0 16.8 14 44.9 ATS 3.0 7 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home PittsburghSteelers Group 5 AFC ACN -23% 44% 22.3 22.5 24.0 24 52.4 O/U 38.0
Away ClevelandBrowns Group 6 AFC ACN -10% 14% 18.6 18.0 15.7 14 50.4 ATS 10.0
Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home TennesseeTitans Group 7 AFC ACS 4% 33% 26.5 26.0 32.7 31 51.0 O/U 52.0 -4 Away JacksonvilleJaguars Group 8 AFC ACS
14% 20.8 19.0 21.7 21 48.7 ATS 10.0 4 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home WashingtonRedskins Group 2 NFC NCE -22% 44% 24.6 24.0 24.7 24 56.1 O/U 48.0 -3 Away DallasCowboys Group 5 NFC NCE 11% 55% 22.9 23.0 26.0 24 48.3 ATS 0.0 3 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home DenverBroncos Group 1 AFC ACW -40% 66% 31.3 27.5 26.7 24 64.0 O/U 37.0 -16 Away KansasCityChiefs Group 8 AFC ACW
14% 14.3 14.5 13.0 13 39.2 ATS 11.0 16 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home SanDiegoChargers Group 5 AFC ACW 36% 22% 24.1 23.0 29.0 28 54.4 O/U 48.0
Away OaklandRaiders Group 7 AFC ACW
14% 19.1 17.0 20.3 20 47.4 ATS 8.0
Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home SanFrancisco49ers Group 2 NFC NCW 25% 55% 30.9 27.0 32.0 31 60.3 O/U 44.0 -16.5 Away ArizonaCardinals Group 8 NFC NCW 30% 14% 16.0 17.0 13.0 13 43.0 ATS 18.0 16.5 Field Team Group Conf Div SoS Field Correl League Avg League Median Team Adv. Adj. Team Adv. Match-up Betting Pt. Spread Home SeattleSeahawks Group 1 NFC NCW 5% 77% 30.2 29.0 20.7 20 58.5 O/U 34.0 -11 Away St.LouisRams Group 6 NFC NCW -36% 41% 16.0 17.0 16.5 14 46.5 ATS 6.0 11 Comment -
Hopefully none of you lost any money following this formula. Like most it isn't without flaws. I plan to collect the data to try to figure out how to refine, what I consider, its potential to win us some money next year.
GLComment -
similar to what I do with my system but mine is a lot let complicated. You cant use the score result average and compare it to the spread, best to find score result average differentials and chart them and see how they do against the spread.
For example Seattle and Rams would be a 4.2 for Team Adv, and a 6 for the adjusted team Adv. You have to then set up a chart that shows how all teams with those results fared against the spread. I would call it -4.2 and -6 since Seattle was the home team. So you have two things to compare that way. Which helps fine tune it somewhat.
The only problem is blow out games and goofy plays can effect the averages quite a bit. So you have to be mindful of that as well. Not sure if the adjusted stuff takes that into account or not. But if a team has been giving up an average of 20 at home and then one game has 4 turn overs or gives up a couple special team scores and they have 50 score on them, than is a 'fluke' not 'good' data'. So it has to be weighted.Comment -
Thanks for the feedback...Agreed, that the average needs to take into account fluke games. This is typically where I inject median rather than average. Eliminates the use of the lowest and highest score.Originally posted by wantitall4moi
Someone else mentioned charting the spread so I'll be plugging in the spread totals over the next few months in an attempt to find some type of correlation with the spread and the formula I'm using. What I did notice was that the formula was extremely accurate with some teams, in both projected scores as well as projected match-up, while others rarely hit. Now some of that could account for injuries, poor play, etc. but mainly I think it came from the inconsistent teams, like the Giants and Cowboys. Where teams like Philly and NE has played very consistent with one being consistently bad the other good.
The problem I see is the number of variables that decide a win or loss. Honestly there is just to many to accurately calculate at least at my level.
If you ever wanna knockaround some ideas hit me up, love talking about this stuff.Comment -
I wasn’t happy with the results I was getting from my previous system, so I went back to excel and started looking at different ways stats correlated into wins this time with the spread in mind. The process I’m using is a calculated formula that uses stats from previous weeks to determine the next week’s outcome. When comparing the match up for each week the formula provides me with what I call a Strength Comparison Number (SCN). The SCN is then forecasted against prior season SCN results, 2009 to 2011 to be exact, to project a possible score for each team in the hopes of betting the spread.
Testing was calculated for 2010 and 2011 using SCN results using 2009 findings and the 2012 season was conducted using combined results from 2009, 2010, and 2011 with 66% ATS accuracy and 76.9% ATS when probability percentage is factored into the equation between weeks 9 and 17. I assume this is because it usually takes that long to truly start gaging how good a team really is be it stat or what I’ve heard called the “eye test”. In doing my research and viewing the results I’ve noticed that the formula appears to get confused during weeks 5 thru 8 as you’ll see in the diagram below.
For week two, the outcome has been most welcoming. Excluding Monday night’s game, the straight up was 64% accurate; ATS 71% accurate; ATS w/ Probability 70%; over / under managed to hit 86% accuracy and the Vegas Dif. (The difference between the projected line and that of the Vegas Line) landed at 70%. Now obviously, the formula isn’t going to hit like this every week as you can see in the chart above, it is sporadic at best in the early weeks of the season.Count sum % Count Sum % Week_05 14 5 35.7% 4 1 25.0% Week_06 14 6 42.9% 3 1 33.3% Week_07 13 2 15.4% 0 0 Week_08 14 3 21.4% 3 2 66.7% Week_09 14 9 64.3% 5 3 60.0% Week_10 14 9 64.3% 3 2 66.7% Week_11 14 7 50.0% 3 3 100.0% Week_12 16 12 75.0% 4 3 75.0% Week_13 16 10 62.5% 4 3 75.0% Week_14 16 11 68.8% 2 2 100.0% Week_15 16 12 75.0% 5 4 80.0% 106 70 66.0% 26 20 76.9%
The above listing shows the results from week 2, in columns “Straight Up”, “Against the Spread”, and “Over / Under” a 1 is displayed for the formula selecting a correct pick and a 0 for an incorrect pick. The ATS Prob. is the probability percentage of the formula making the correct selection. The Vegas Dif. is the difference between the projected Vegas line and the actual Vegas line.Weekly Schedule Straight Up Sides Against The Spread ATS Prob. Over / Under Vegas Dif. Week_02 | StLouisRams @ AtlantaFalcons 0 Dog 0 58.52% 1 11.0 Week_02 | CarolinaPanthers @ BuffaloBills 1 Dog 1 44.66% 1 9.5 Week_02 | MinnesotaVikings @ ChicagoBears 1 Fav 0 42.55% 1 1.7 Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ IndianapolisColts 1 Dog 1 57.26% 0 7.0 Week_02 | WashingtonRedskins @ GreenBayPackers 1 Dog 1 46.43% 1 12.1 Week_02 | TennesseeTitans @ HoustonTexans 1 Dog 1 45.79% 1 2.9 Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ KansasCityChiefs 1 Dog 1 50.93% 1 2.0 Week_02 | SanDiegoChargers @ PhiladelphiaEagles 0 Dog 1 44.30% 1 1.2 Week_02 | ClevelandBrowns @ BaltimoreRavens 1 Fav 1 42.91% 1 0.4 Week_02 | DetroitLions @ ArizonaCardinals 1 Dog 1 51.71% 0 2.4 Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ TampaBayBuccaneers 0 Dog 1 52.02% 1 3.7 Week_02 | DenverBroncos @ NewYorkGiants 0 Dog 0 51.94% 1 4.7 Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ OaklandRaiders 1 Fav 1 45.36% 1 0.9 Week_02 | SanFrancisco49ers @ SeattleSeahawks 0 Dog 0 53.08% 1 3.7 Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ CincinnatiBengals Straight Up Fav | Dog Against The Spread ATS Probability Over / Under Vegas Dif. Count 14 67% 14 10 14 10 Sum 9 73% 10 7 12 7 Percentage 64% 71% 70% 86% 70%
The Lines used to determine this week’s wins are from Bovada http://sports.bovada.lv/ I’m sure there is probably a better site, if so please educate me.
I’m not completely sold on the O/U results from the system regardless the high percentage from this week. Reason being is when using the forecast formula to project the score the forecast will average out to 43 to 44 total points for each game throughout 3 years of data. I’m currently looking at other methods to find the over/ under. Also, I don’t suggest betting on games using this method until after week 8. I just wanted to get it out there so I could show a week to week result.
I keep bringing up past data which I’m sure that you want to check out as well, should you have any interest in my handicapping system. There are several lines of data so I’ll pull only 2009 results which is still 256 rows.
Week Visiting SCN Visiting Score Home SCN Home Score O/U Difference Vegas Spread Probability week_10 -75.97 28 75.97 23 51 -5 -14.5 99% week_05 -74.37 38 74.37 10 48 -28 -10.5 99% week_07 -68.97 42 68.97 6 48 -36 -14.5 99% week_11 -63.98 38 63.98 7 45 -31 -10.5 97% week_17 -63.76 21 63.76 13 34 -8 -10 97% week_12 -62.48 34 62.48 12 46 -22 -11.5 97% week_07 -59.65 31 59.65 3 34 -28 -9 99% week_01 -56.65 34 56.65 20 54 -14 -4.5 97% week_13 -55.68 30 55.68 23 53 -7 -13.5 97% week_03 -54.93 27 54.93 7 34 -20 -5.5 97% week_07 -50.95 38 50.95 0 38 -38 -6 97% week_10 -50.82 16 50.82 0 16 -16 -11 97% week_15 -50.69 17 50.69 10 27 -7 -7 97% week_05 -46.10 26 46.10 20 46 -6 -7 97% week_03 -44.78 36 44.78 17 53 -19 -6.5 96% week_17 -43.82 28 43.82 6 34 -22 -7 95% week_14 -43.73 26 43.73 3 29 -23 -3.5 95% week_03 -42.27 24 42.27 0 24 -24 -6.5 94% week_15 -42.04 35 42.04 31 66 -4 -3 94% week_01 -40.68 24 40.68 20 44 -4 -10 94% week_07 -40.00 46 40.00 34 80 -12 -6.5 93% week_06 -38.50 9 38.50 13 22 4 -14 92% week_04 -38.45 27 38.45 16 43 -11 -9.5 92% week_09 -38.43 28 38.43 38 66 10 -9.5 92% week_08 -38.29 31 38.29 10 41 -21 -3.5 92% week_13 -37.88 44 37.88 13 57 -31 -6 92% week_11 -37.28 24 37.28 20 44 -4 -3.5 90% week_06 -37.14 28 37.14 21 49 -7 -3 90% week_16 -36.57 17 36.57 0 17 -17 -7 84% week_05 -36.27 28 36.27 20 48 -8 -11 88% week_07 -34.98 35 34.98 7 42 -28 -15.5 86% week_02 -34.78 27 34.78 13 40 -14 -10 86% week_13 -34.68 19 34.68 13 32 -6 -3.5 86% week_15 -34.50 16 34.50 13 29 -3 -14 86% week_07 -34.12 37 34.12 7 44 -30 -5.5 86% week_16 -33.22 42 33.22 17 59 -25 2 88% week_13 -29.67 33 29.67 30 63 -3 -8 85% week_12 -29.65 27 29.65 17 44 -10 -3.5 85% week_01 -28.88 34 28.88 21 55 -13 -5 84% week_05 -28.79 31 28.79 9 40 -22 -3.5 83% week_11 -28.54 21 28.54 13 34 -8 -9 85% week_04 -28.32 23 28.32 20 43 -3 -6.5 84% week_17 -27.93 7 27.93 30 37 23 8 80% week_03 -27.54 23 27.54 3 26 -20 -2.5 83% week_07 -26.28 27 26.28 17 44 -10 -9 85% week_14 -25.13 21 25.13 14 35 -7 -4 86% week_14 -24.79 26 24.79 23 49 -3 -10 79% week_16 -23.66 30 23.66 36 66 6 -8.5 79% week_16 -23.36 27 23.36 20 47 -7 2 79% week_11 -22.96 17 22.96 20 37 3 -8.5 78% week_17 -22.93 20 22.93 10 30 -10 -3 78% week_01 -22.63 38 22.63 10 48 -28 -2.5 78% week_11 -20.58 24 20.58 27 51 3 -11.5 76% week_13 -20.57 34 20.57 7 41 -27 -4 76% week_14 -20.57 34 20.57 13 47 -21 -2.5 76% week_15 -20.01 31 20.01 24 55 -7 -14 74% week_13 -19.96 21 19.96 22 43 1 -5 73% week_06 -19.73 27 19.73 3 30 -24 3 71% week_11 -19.71 32 19.71 3 35 -29 -6 71% week_14 -19.63 6 19.63 13 19 7 -10 71% week_03 -19.59 31 19.59 10 41 -21 3 71% week_09 -19.13 21 19.13 20 41 -1 4.5 71% week_13 -19.06 18 19.06 23 41 5 -1.5 68% week_02 -18.08 27 18.08 23 50 -4 -3 63% week_14 -17.49 45 17.49 38 83 -7 -1 72% week_17 -17.24 10 17.24 23 33 13 10 71% week_15 -17.09 45 17.09 12 57 -33 -3 68% week_17 -16.24 33 16.24 7 40 -26 3 66% week_15 -16.17 7 16.17 26 33 19 -9 68% week_10 -15.32 17 15.32 27 44 10 -3.5 53% week_17 -15.19 30 15.19 24 54 -6 -3 50% week_15 -15.15 36 15.15 37 73 1 2.5 50% week_09 -14.91 41 14.91 21 62 -20 3 56% week_13 -14.77 17 14.77 30 47 13 -3 56% week_09 -13.96 7 13.96 17 24 10 -3 62% week_07 -13.68 17 13.68 27 44 10 6 63% week_04 -13.54 28 13.54 38 66 10 5.5 60% week_06 -13.30 28 13.30 17 45 -11 3.5 53% week_04 -13.24 17 13.24 37 54 20 -3.5 48% week_02 -13.10 31 13.10 17 48 -14 3 53% week_02 -11.66 34 11.66 31 65 -3 7 31% week_14 -11.49 20 11.49 17 37 -3 3.5 37% week_05 -11.29 17 11.29 20 37 3 -3 45% week_17 -11.12 37 11.12 23 60 -14 -4.5 50% week_10 -11.04 16 11.04 10 26 -6 2.5 50% week_02 -10.76 9 10.76 16 25 7 -3.5 31% week_17 -10.53 17 10.53 13 30 -4 -6 31% week_02 -9.98 14 9.98 17 31 3 -3 41% week_12 -9.85 14 9.85 31 45 17 -3.5 41% week_16 -9.78 20 9.78 23 43 3 3 41% week_12 -9.63 35 9.63 27 62 -8 -3 37% week_05 -9.19 27 9.19 31 58 4 -3 53% week_13 -8.01 17 8.01 20 37 3 -1 58% week_01 -7.65 12 7.65 7 19 -5 5 60% week_05 -7.37 45 7.37 10 55 -35 1 62% week_17 -6.83 27 6.83 34 61 7 7.5 71% week_03 -6.18 14 6.18 19 33 5 -6 65% week_05 -5.96 21 5.96 28 49 7 6 65% week_14 -5.93 14 5.93 10 24 -4 2 65% week_17 -5.77 0 5.77 24 24 24 3 65% week_12 -5.70 17 5.70 20 37 3 2 60% week_17 -5.44 17 5.44 23 40 6 2 58% week_04 -5.19 10 5.19 17 27 7 -3 48% week_03 -4.83 25 4.83 19 44 -6 -2.5 41% week_02 -4.22 48 4.22 22 70 -26 -2.5 41% week_03 -4.18 20 4.18 23 43 3 -3.5 45% week_14 -4.07 9 4.07 24 33 15 -4 34% week_13 -3.43 24 3.43 31 55 7 -1.5 37% week_14 -2.47 16 2.47 10 26 -6 -2.5 48% week_10 -2.13 19 2.13 28 47 9 -1 48% week_10 -1.87 34 1.87 35 69 1 1.5 45% week_11 -1.47 37 1.47 38 75 1 3 56% week_04 -1.47 23 1.47 30 53 7 5 56% week_15 -0.95 41 0.95 34 75 -7 3 65% week_12 -0.57 6 0.57 26 32 20 -4.5 63% week_11 -0.44 17 0.44 15 32 -2 -1.5 58% week_08 0.26 34 -0.26 21 55 -13 10 53% week_05 1.02 0 -1.02 41 41 41 2 28% week_15 1.29 10 -1.29 7 17 -3 7 25% week_15 1.47 24 -1.47 27 51 3 4.5 25% week_05 1.52 6 -1.52 3 9 -3 5.5 24% week_04 1.92 21 -1.92 27 48 6 2 20% week_02 2.13 20 -2.13 28 48 8 5.5 24% week_10 2.18 23 -2.18 31 54 8 1.5 22% week_09 2.52 28 -2.52 10 38 -18 -3 27% week_11 2.53 31 -2.53 34 65 3 7 27% week_08 3.00 38 -3.00 26 64 -12 3 15% week_12 3.05 17 -3.05 38 55 21 1.5 19% week_12 3.42 6 -3.42 17 23 11 3.5 14% week_01 3.61 24 -3.61 7 31 -17 4.5 15% week_09 3.64 34 -3.64 27 61 -7 4 15% week_06 3.91 31 -3.91 33 64 2 3 13% week_11 3.92 15 -3.92 18 33 3 8.5 13% week_16 4.65 41 -4.65 9 50 -32 8.5 20% week_10 4.82 6 -4.82 10 16 4 3 24% week_02 4.86 31 -4.86 26 57 -5 1 22% week_07 4.88 24 -4.88 17 41 -7 8 22% week_09 4.96 17 -4.96 20 37 3 8.5 21% week_17 5.11 0 -5.11 37 37 37 10 25% week_10 5.13 18 -5.13 12 30 -6 6.5 25% week_02 5.18 20 -5.18 33 53 13 4 27% week_13 5.37 14 -5.37 27 41 13 4 21% week_01 5.57 20 -5.57 16 36 -4 4.5 19% week_07 5.80 10 -5.80 45 55 35 -2 16% week_07 5.95 21 -5.95 37 58 16 5 15% week_09 6.40 21 -6.40 24 45 3 7 11% week_01 6.79 10 -6.79 13 23 3 6.5 14% week_08 7.39 13 -7.39 30 43 17 3 9% week_16 7.51 9 -7.51 23 32 14 3 11% week_02 7.65 33 -7.65 31 64 -2 3 10% week_03 7.73 17 -7.73 24 41 7 1 9% week_01 7.90 7 -7.90 19 26 12 4 6% week_09 7.93 20 -7.93 32 52 12 10 6% week_02 8.01 10 -8.01 23 33 13 1 6% week_03 8.08 7 -8.08 21 28 14 8.5 4% week_04 8.37 13 -8.37 16 29 3 9 4% week_12 9.03 3 -9.03 20 23 17 3 1% week_08 9.19 17 -9.19 40 57 23 -1 0% week_08 9.37 7 -9.37 30 37 23 3.5 0% week_14 9.42 16 -9.42 28 44 12 6.5 0% week_06 9.53 14 -9.53 6 20 -8 6.5 1% week_10 9.56 7 -9.56 17 24 10 -3 1% week_06 9.62 14 -9.62 21 35 7 3.5 4% week_08 9.65 6 -9.65 30 36 24 13.5 6% week_12 9.78 17 -9.78 20 37 3 8 4% week_09 9.84 20 -9.84 16 36 -4 3 4% week_04 9.85 10 -9.85 38 48 28 1.5 4% week_07 10.03 21 -10.03 24 45 3 3 8% week_11 10.76 14 -10.76 31 45 17 11 9% week_16 10.96 27 -10.96 30 57 3 7 12% week_02 11.04 13 -11.04 10 23 -3 1.5 14% week_04 11.12 24 -11.12 48 72 24 9.5 16% week_10 11.32 17 -11.32 41 58 24 7.5 13% week_17 11.51 7 -11.51 44 51 37 8 18% week_11 11.66 20 -11.66 17 37 -3 3.5 24% week_03 12.06 10 -12.06 26 36 16 4.5 31% week_10 12.08 20 -12.08 31 51 11 8.5 31% week_05 12.43 17 -12.43 20 37 3 5.5 37% week_06 12.58 27 -12.58 48 75 21 3 37% week_06 13.13 34 -13.13 23 57 -11 3.5 48% week_11 13.15 24 -13.15 17 41 -7 3.5 48% week_16 13.25 29 -13.25 15 44 -14 3 56% week_04 13.82 10 -13.82 24 34 14 7.5 37% week_05 13.96 17 -13.96 14 31 -3 9 31% week_15 14.06 24 -14.06 17 41 -7 7.5 34% week_14 14.18 10 -14.18 20 30 10 12.5 41% week_09 14.56 17 -14.56 31 48 14 9 41% week_02 14.71 7 -14.71 9 16 2 10 37% week_08 14.89 17 -14.89 10 27 -7 4 34% week_08 14.99 14 -14.99 18 32 4 13.5 31% week_10 15.03 23 -15.03 25 48 2 10 34% week_08 15.11 27 -15.11 35 62 8 12 28% week_06 15.44 20 -15.44 23 43 3 9.5 31% week_12 15.45 7 -15.45 16 23 9 12 31% week_07 15.62 20 -15.62 9 29 -11 7 29% week_16 15.94 6 -15.94 20 26 14 14 29% week_16 16.40 10 -16.40 17 27 7 13 34% week_01 16.46 0 -16.46 28 28 28 7 34% week_15 16.52 13 -16.52 27 40 14 7.5 31% week_13 16.62 17 -16.62 27 44 10 6 41% week_13 16.92 13 -16.92 23 36 10 13.5 37% week_01 17.09 17 -17.09 23 40 6 6 34% week_09 17.24 20 -17.24 30 50 10 13 41% week_15 17.66 24 -17.66 7 31 -17 6.5 58% week_15 17.72 24 -17.72 27 51 3 7 62% week_16 17.75 3 -17.75 31 34 28 8 60% week_14 17.86 10 -17.86 30 40 20 6 58% week_14 18.04 7 -18.04 34 41 27 7 58% week_06 18.49 0 -18.49 59 59 59 9 53% week_08 18.76 17 -18.76 38 55 21 9.5 60% week_03 18.84 24 -18.84 27 51 3 7 58% week_06 19.63 14 -19.63 27 41 13 14 74% week_13 19.65 9 -19.65 17 26 8 9 73% week_08 19.75 30 -19.75 25 55 -5 3.5 75% week_15 19.75 7 -19.75 31 38 24 11 76% week_09 19.96 17 -19.96 27 44 10 10.5 76% week_02 20.03 6 -20.03 27 33 21 3 75% week_11 20.31 24 -20.31 30 54 6 6 76% week_11 20.51 6 -20.51 7 13 1 10.5 78% week_13 20.80 6 -20.80 16 22 10 3.5 78% week_03 21.80 13 -21.80 23 36 10 5.5 80% week_14 22.84 7 -22.84 47 54 40 14 83% week_12 22.93 17 -22.93 20 37 3 12.5 83% week_04 23.00 17 -23.00 34 51 17 10.5 83% week_12 23.66 10 -23.66 36 46 26 10 83% week_01 24.01 12 -24.01 14 26 2 6 84% week_01 25.13 15 -25.13 21 36 6 5 86% week_16 25.89 7 -25.89 35 42 28 9 88% week_12 26.28 24 -26.28 27 51 3 10 89% week_11 26.85 9 -26.85 35 44 26 11 91% week_16 28.32 10 -28.32 48 58 38 13.5 91% week_17 28.46 20 -28.46 23 43 3 3 89% week_16 28.54 10 -28.54 31 41 21 16 89% week_10 28.79 24 -28.79 22 46 -2 6.5 89% week_05 29.31 7 -29.31 44 51 37 15 89% week_03 29.40 3 -29.40 34 37 31 13.5 88% week_01 29.81 24 -29.81 25 49 1 13.5 89% week_01 30.36 24 -30.36 38 62 14 13 90% week_14 30.87 3 -30.87 48 51 45 14 91% week_02 31.33 31 -31.33 24 55 -7 7.5 93% week_03 31.94 14 -31.94 34 48 20 7.5 95% week_03 32.40 31 -32.40 24 55 -7 4.5 95% week_12 34.12 14 -34.12 43 57 29 13.5 95% week_05 34.65 14 -34.65 33 47 19 15.5 95% week_06 34.68 16 -34.68 13 29 -3 9.5 95% week_10 34.78 10 -34.78 27 37 17 17 95% week_01 35.85 27 -35.85 45 72 18 14 95% week_06 36.25 0 -36.25 26 26 26 14 95% week_17 37.88 44 -37.88 24 68 -20 10 97% week_08 40.68 16 -40.68 24 40 8 16.5 99% week_04 43.82 0 -43.82 35 35 35 9.5 99% week_13 46.39 27 -46.39 24 51 -3 15 99% week_15 48.91 20 -48.91 19 39 -1 14 99% week_04 54.56 6 -54.56 29 35 23 8 99% week_12 57.13 7 -57.13 24 31 17 13.5 99% week_16 63.98 20 -63.98 17 37 -3 14 99% Comment
