Correlation for the win.
I’ve been working on a project that hopefully will aid me in betting. Found this site a couple days ago and thought I’d post to get the forum’s feedback.
The process is somewhat simple in that formula looks at the direct correlation to determine which stats are important in terms of winning and losing. For example, offensive game stats (see below) obviously there is a high correlation with points per game and actually winning the game. Turnovers are another high correlation with winning. With every stat there is a correlation be it high neutral or low. What I do is take those correlations to determine the outcome of a game.
The formula has correctly picked the winner roughly 73% of the time, which for me it’s worth betting on. I originally created the formula to produce power rankings for a football forum I visit regularly. The ranking list Strength of Schedule however at this time it is not being calculated into the power ranking.
Current Power Ranking
Providing the post draws any attention I’ll continue to post the projected results of each weeks games along with the spread. Again if you have any questions or feedback it is very much welcome.
Match ups / Spreads for the week.
November 29, 2012 / 20:20 New Orleans Saints 20 @ Atlanta Falcons 23… NO +3.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Buffalo Bills 41… BUF-6
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears… na
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions… na
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Minnesota Vikings 22 @ Green Bay Packers 23… MIN+9
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Carolina Panthers 37 @ Kansas City Chiefs 9… CAR-3
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 New England Patriots 40 @ Miami Dolphins 16… NE-7.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals 17 @ New York Jets 18… ARI-4.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 San Francisco 49ers 33 @ St. Louis Rams 18… SF-7
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Houston Texans 30 @ Tennessee Titans 19… HOU-6
December 2, 2012 / 16:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 @ Denver Broncos 30… TB+7
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 @ Baltimore Ravens 27… na
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cleveland Browns 20 @ Oakland Raiders 20… na
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cincinnati Bengals 14 @ San Diego Chargers 3… CIN-2
December 2, 2012 / 20:20 Philadelphia Eagles 11 @ Dallas Cowboys 23… DAL-10
December 3, 2012 / 20:30 New York Giants 26 @ Washington Redskins 20… na
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
I’ve been working on a project that hopefully will aid me in betting. Found this site a couple days ago and thought I’d post to get the forum’s feedback.
The process is somewhat simple in that formula looks at the direct correlation to determine which stats are important in terms of winning and losing. For example, offensive game stats (see below) obviously there is a high correlation with points per game and actually winning the game. Turnovers are another high correlation with winning. With every stat there is a correlation be it high neutral or low. What I do is take those correlations to determine the outcome of a game.
| Correlation |
Pts/G |
Scrm Plys |
Yds/G |
Yds/P |
1st/G |
3rd Md |
3rd Att |
3rd Pct |
4th Md |
4th Att |
4th Pct |
Pen |
Pen Yds |
ToP/G |
FUM |
Lost |
TO |
| Record Correlation: |
73.9%| |
20.6%| |
46.2%| |
43.8%| |
48.9%| |
44.1%| |
-0.3%| |
50.6%| |
-19.3%| |
-41.0%| |
7.8%| |
-28.1%| |
-32.7%| |
34.9%| |
-65.0%| |
-53.4%| |
53.1% |
The formula has correctly picked the winner roughly 73% of the time, which for me it’s worth betting on. I originally created the formula to produce power rankings for a football forum I visit regularly. The ranking list Strength of Schedule however at this time it is not being calculated into the power ranking.
Current Power Ranking
| Win | Loss | Points For | TEAMNAME | SoS | Value | Rank |
| 8 | 3 | 407 | NewEnglandPatriots | 57% | 13.4 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | 327 | HoustonTexans | 90% | 11.7 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | 318 | DenverBroncos | 64% | 11.4 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | 276 | SanFrancisco49ers | 100% | 10.8 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | 277 | ChicagoBears | 77% | 10.5 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | 294 | AtlantaFalcons | 41% | 10.1 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 | 305 | NewYorkGiants | 29% | 9.2 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | 282 | CincinnatiBengals | 3% | 9.1 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | 310 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 52% | 8.9 | 9 |
| 5 | 6 | 295 | WashingtonRedskins | -4% | 8.7 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | 273 | GreenBayPackers | 20% | 8.7 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | 283 | BaltimoreRavens | -4% | 8.6 | 12 |
| 4 | 7 | 267 | DetroitLions | -16% | 8.6 | 13 |
| 6 | 5 | 231 | PittsburghSteelers | -4% | 8.2 | 14 |
| 6 | 5 | 219 | SeattleSeahawks | 20% | 8.0 | 15 |
| 5 | 6 | 242 | DallasCowboys | -11% | 7.3 | 16 |
| 6 | 5 | 248 | MinnesotaVikings | -8% | 7.2 | 17 |
| 7 | 4 | 230 | IndianapolisColts | -22% | 7.2 | 18 |
| 4 | 7 | 245 | SanDiegoChargers | -19% | 7.1 | 19 |
| 5 | 6 | 211 | MiamiDolphins | -27% | 6.7 | 20 |
| 4 | 6 | 205 | St.LouisRams | -50% | 6.6 | 21 |
| 4 | 7 | 243 | BuffaloBills | -56% | 6.6 | 22 |
| 3 | 8 | 214 | CarolinaPanthers | -36% | 6.5 | 23 |
| 5 | 6 | 308 | NewOrleansSaints | 2% | 6.3 | 24 |
| 3 | 8 | 209 | ClevelandBrowns | -30% | 5.8 | 25 |
| 4 | 7 | 238 | TennesseeTitans | -107% | 5.0 | 26 |
| 4 | 7 | 221 | NewYorkJets | -27% | 5.0 | 27 |
| 4 | 7 | 180 | ArizonaCardinals | -14% | 4.7 | 28 |
| 3 | 8 | 218 | OaklandRaiders | -118% | 4.3 | 29 |
| 3 | 8 | 184 | PhiladelphiaEagles | -63% | 4.3 | 30 |
| 2 | 9 | 188 | JacksonvilleJaguars | -101% | 3.1 | 31 |
| 1 | 10 | 161 | KansasCityChiefs | -90% | 3.1 | 32 |
Match ups / Spreads for the week.
November 29, 2012 / 20:20 New Orleans Saints 20 @ Atlanta Falcons 23… NO +3.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Buffalo Bills 41… BUF-6
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears… na
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions… na
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Minnesota Vikings 22 @ Green Bay Packers 23… MIN+9
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Carolina Panthers 37 @ Kansas City Chiefs 9… CAR-3
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 New England Patriots 40 @ Miami Dolphins 16… NE-7.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals 17 @ New York Jets 18… ARI-4.5
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 San Francisco 49ers 33 @ St. Louis Rams 18… SF-7
December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Houston Texans 30 @ Tennessee Titans 19… HOU-6
December 2, 2012 / 16:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 @ Denver Broncos 30… TB+7
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 @ Baltimore Ravens 27… na
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cleveland Browns 20 @ Oakland Raiders 20… na
December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cincinnati Bengals 14 @ San Diego Chargers 3… CIN-2
December 2, 2012 / 20:20 Philadelphia Eagles 11 @ Dallas Cowboys 23… DAL-10
December 3, 2012 / 20:30 New York Giants 26 @ Washington Redskins 20… na
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
