If you call yourself a professional bettor, how could you take Eagles -3

TheLock · 11-09-08, 12:51 PM

Nice write up Saint

St. Andrew · 11-09-08, 12:52 PM

Oh, and just my personal opinion: McNabb is a threat to flake-out at any moment.

VegasDave · 11-09-08, 12:57 PM

Well St. Andrew, you just gave all the reasons why some of us like the Eagles today.

With all of those points at the bookie's and public's disposal, they still made Philly a FG favorite.

That doesn't strike you as the least bit odd?

Bookmakers don't give away free money too often.

SportsLockPicks · 11-09-08, 01:01 PM

key players to the eagles D and O are healthy, something they haven't had all year, especially in their early losses...Manning has shit #'s on the road this year...the line is correct

St. Andrew · 11-09-08, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Well St. Andrew, you just gave all the reasons why some of us like the Eagles today.

With all of those points at the bookie's and public's disposal, they still made Philly a FG favorite.

That doesn't strike you as the least bit odd?

Bookmakers don't give away free money too often.

Are you aware of how Vegas makes lines? Read "The Odds" by Chad Millman.

VegasDave · 11-09-08, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Are you aware of how Vegas makes lines? Read "The Odds" by Chad Millman.

Give me the cliff notes on why Philly is favored today please?

fiveteamer · 11-09-08, 01:46 PM

either side you take, you would be stupid to take the 3.

These Eagles-Giants games are always decided by a FG.

St. Andrew · 11-09-08, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Give me the cliff notes on why Philly is favored today please?

Okay, I'll give it to you in one sentence.

The books know that the public will stupidly pay -3 for the Eagles since most NFL bettors are casual homers, and when that bet loses the books will make money.

VegasDave · 11-09-08, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Okay, I'll give it to you in one sentence.

The books know that the public will stupidly pay -3 for the Eagles since most NFL bettors are casual homers, and when that bet loses the books will make money.

Funny you don't factor in the casual homers on the NYG side. Or those that bet teams with the better record? Defending Super Bowl champs?

63% of the public is on the Giants, 37% on the Eagles...

NYG -3.0 would have brought much more balanced action I believe.

The books seem to know that you (and 63% of the public) will take the easy pick and the points here in NYG.

yisman · 11-09-08, 02:10 PM

I wouldn't put money on it, but if I had to pick a side, I'm definitely on the Eagles -3.

ipickwinners · 11-09-08, 02:10 PM

how are these trends that happened before this season going to prove the giants would be the right play on today? this season, not last season, or last 10 games or anything like that... players change, teams change etc etc.... .trends only go so far, give me something thats goin on this season

yisman · 11-09-08, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Funny you don't factor in the casual homers on the NYG side. Or those that bet teams with the better record? Defending Super Bowl champs?

63% of the public is on the Giants, 37% on the Eagles...

NYG -3.0 would have brought much more balanced action I believe.

The books seem to know that you (and 63% of the public) will take the easy pick and the points here in NYG.

100% agree.

Average NFL guy sees this line and bets the Giants.

"Giants best team in the NFL, how are they an underdog?" etc.

St. Andrew · 11-09-08, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by ipickwinners

how are these trends that happened before this season going to prove the giants would be the right play on today? this season, not last season, or last 10 games or anything like that... players change, teams change etc etc.... .trends only go so far, give me something thats goin on this season

Because Tom Coughlin coached this team last year, Eli Manning QB'd this team last year, and last year the Giants had Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck just like this year.

This is basically the same team that tore through the playoffs last year ON THE ROAD.

I like this quote from Justin Tuck:

“Philly is my favorite road stadium because the fans absolutely hate everybody that moves in an opponent’s jersey,” Tuck said. “I kind of like being hated.”

EastsidaProduct · 11-09-08, 03:40 PM

In my opinion, all teams in the NFC East will split their winnings. With that said I strongly believe the Philly takes it. Not only because they're at home which always gives the home team the advantage but also Westbrook is 100%. That guy will be the determining factor in today's game. Just watch.

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 03:45 PM

The Giants are the play at +3 without question...if you take at anything by more than -2.5 ur nuts.

VegasDave I respect your NFL handicapping, but sometimes I think that you look too much into "what Vegas wants to make people believe"....it hurt you with Oakland and Seattle last week...

Simple fact is that the Giants are a much better team, and they Phillys havnt done much against decent teams. Not sayint they can't win, but the actually bet money that they would win by more than 3 is crazy

eidolon · 11-09-08, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by yisman

100% agree.

Average NFL guy sees this line and bets the Giants.

"Giants best team in the NFL, how are they an underdog?" etc.

My thoughts exactly. I'm not betting on this game, but I would have to give my

to philly

tbond10 · 11-09-08, 04:04 PM

Giants +3...

outforseason36 · 11-09-08, 04:49 PM

Because Eli Manning is Eli Manning. He has had an incredible stretch that is completely unlike him. He is a average starting quarterback and will be grounded back to Earth and the Giants will lose by 6+ points.

tbond10 · 11-09-08, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by outforseason36

Because Eli Manning is Eli Manning. He has had an incredible stretch that is completely unlike him. He is a average starting quarterback and will be grounded back to Earth and the Giants will lose by 6+ points.

I don't see any bias (read: homerism) in this post.... While I do agree eli is average, the giants as a whole are a MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH better team than the iggles... Hail to the redskins!

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 04:57 PM

Eli is average and not very good and will play a bad game????What are you basing this on his first two seasons? Please give me a break

yisman · 11-09-08, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Simple fact is that the Giants are a much better team, and they Phillys havnt done much against decent teams. Not sayint they can't win, but the actually bet money that they would win by more than 3 is crazy

The Giants are not "much better"

The Eagles have played very well this season but haven't gotten a few breaks.

Eagles are a top 5 team. Don't be fooled. Giants have played better, but there isn't much of a gap between the two teams in talent or level of play.

If you really think the Giants are a much better team, then you'd be crazy not to go all in on the Giants. Much better team getting 3?

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 05:11 PM

actually yisman....YOUD be crazy to every think "going all in" is ever smart in sports betting

All I'm saying is the play here is Giants at +3 or nothing, what have the giants done to make you think they could lose this game by more than that? And what have the Eagles done to make you think they can win this game by more than that?

And also the reasoning that the Eagles are the play because "Vegas wants you to bet the Giants" has no credence, which was my original point.

losturmarbles · 11-09-08, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Oh, and just my personal opinion: McNabb is a threat to flake-out at any moment.

well its good to know that your personal bias doesnt influence your handicapping.

playa420 · 11-09-08, 05:29 PM

Eagles -3 is easy money,giants are a trap!!!

Cheme82 · 11-09-08, 05:30 PM

The last 2 road games for NYG were pretty bad. Philly losing to Washington is not nearly as bad as NYG losing by 3 TD's in Cleveland. They were about to lose the game in Pitt if it wasn't for the bad snap that lost the game for Pitt. Both quaterbacks will be under pressure, but the home field and the fact that McNabb has moved more in the pocket to gain time is the reason why Philly wins today.

I believe they cover the 3, but it will be a tough game and you have to buy the hook to 2.5.

I got 20 units riding on Philly tonight, hopefully that would get me closer to breaking 100 units in the NFL this season.

YTD
NFL
18-6-1 75.95
TEASERS
0-2 -22
CFB
28-23 37.55
TEASERS
1-3 -22.5
NBA
2-1 9

yisman · 11-09-08, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

actually yisman....YOUD be crazy to every think "going all in" is ever smart in sports betting

All I'm saying is the play here is Giants at +3 or nothing, what have the giants done to make you think they could lose this game by more than that? And what have the Eagles done to make you think they can win this game by more than that?

And also the reasoning that the Eagles are the play because "Vegas wants you to bet the Giants" has no credence, which was my original point.

yes it does. When the spread doesn't move and the action is on one side that hard, fade the public.

You're clearly never going to grasp the concept, so I'm not going to bother going through a twenty post exchange here.

Just know that there are a number of reasons to bet the Eagles tonight, and if you think the Giants are so much better, put your money where your mouth is.

All you're saying is the Giants are the play or nothing? You claimed the Giants are a much better team! And they're getting points!

Obviously one wouldn't bet the Eagles if the Giants are much better. Sharp bettors know the Giants are not much better.

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 05:33 PM

the Giants are not a trap here.....if anything the fact that the vast majority of posters on here love the Eagles, makes the Eagles the trap.

SBR jinx coming to fruition

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 05:34 PM

I will be betting on the Giants....my only point is that just because I think the Giants are the right play does not mean that I should "go all-in" as you stated.

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 05:36 PM

and let me make sure that you understand this concept Yisman...

Reverse line movement as posters on this site describe it does not make sense....

People on here seem to think that if there is a higher percentage of people betting on a game the line should move that way, and if it doesnt or it moves the other way, then the other way is the play....

Vegas does not move lines based on how many people bet one side or the other....Vegas moves lines based on the percentage of money that one side gets over the other....

Vegas makes money by having equal action (in terms of dollars, not in terms of people) on each game!

yisman · 11-09-08, 05:39 PM

^ yes, hence when the percentage is one way and the line moves the other way, the big bets (usually considered "sharps") are going the OPPOSITE of the public. That's why the line isn't moving with the percentage. This is extremely basic.

Vegas ALWAYS moves lines based on the money bet, not the percentage of people. With some games, you can thus figure out which way the big money bets are going.

No one on this site who uses RLM is as dumb as you make them out to be. Any serious bettor understands what drives line movement.

atlsportsfan · 11-09-08, 05:42 PM

Brandon Lang loves the Eagles-3 for his free pick. To his credit he has been pretty good lately on his free picks if any of you care or want to bet against him lol

Thien Co · 11-09-08, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

I will be betting on the Giants....my only point is that just because I think the Giants are the right play does not mean that I should "go all-in" as you stated.

I agree with you DDldown....since many guys on here picks Eagles, I'll pick Giants b/c probably a lot of people will think it is a trap on Giant. Therefore, they end up to pick on Eagle.

For exemple: Titans (-3) vs Chicago.

A lot of my friends think Chicago will win...

What the result for today?

Giants....should be the pick...

)

yisman · 11-09-08, 05:46 PM

^ the public is on the Giants.

This site is a tiny sample size, and even here, you find as many Giants backers as Philly backers.

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 05:54 PM

Yeah you are right Yisman I was just pointing out the number of people on this site on Philly as an example of the dreaded SBR curse haha....

and I understand you're sharp money aspect to RLM, however in games like Sunday night football where the whole country watches the game, and most people that bet football, will bet the game, sharps are not the only ones betting big money.