-350 experiment

[mcduggly]

lol i lost 4 out of my 5 plays in tennis, but broke even thanks to progressive bets... ton of upsets today, was watching the matches and it looked like they were drugged... really suspicious

Yea, luckily I stay away from tennis. I don't know much about that sport.

[utmoody10]

Interesting concept here guys and a belated congrats on hitting the first attempt. This experiment peaked my interest so I decided to look a little deeper into the percentages of underdogs winning outright against a -350 favorite in college football (entire game). Some interesting tidbits:

Through Week 6 of the 2012 College Football Season

-91.2% of favorites -350 or greater were winners (Lines based off Pinnacle closing #s)
-13 underdogs won outright out of a 147 game sample.
-Of those 13 underdogs, 5 teams upset were from the ACC. (38%)
-10 out of 13 upsets were BCS conference schools being upset (77%)
-Georgia Tech and Air Force have been upset as -350 or greater favorites TWICE


What can we learn from this? Well for one, the ACC cannot be trusted. Each year the few teams that are expected to carry the flag for the conference are beat by an inferior opponent. Clemson, Va Tech and FSU have each had their share of let downs in recent years. Also, these numbers are not to ensure that -350 will hit at a 90% clip, these numbers are padded by heavy moneyline favorites that offer little to no value to bet at all. Also not many non BCS conference schools were upset. I attibute that to a few things, one being that the disparity from top to bottom of these conferences could be so great that upsets are minimal. It also could be due to the fact that alot of these schools are going against BCS conference members early on in the year in non conference matchups to where they rarely are greater than a TD favorite.

In comparison to previous years, this year seems to be on pace for similar results. Phil Steele included a blog that referenced how often underdogs win outright from a 1997-2011. Teams that were 10.5 point favorites or greater were upset 9.8% of the time (compare to this year upsets occuring 8.8%). Seems like a good plan that will require patience and spots to be chosen wisely. Just wanted to share some info with you guys and if anyone wants me to analyze these numbers from a different angle, let me know. Best of luck.

[House]

^^^^^^ Dam good stuff utmoody ..I tried to give you points but it said you couldn't receive them ? Great stuff though

[mcduggly]

Interesting concept here guys and a belated congrats on hitting the first attempt. This experiment peaked my interest so I decided to look a little deeper into the percentages of underdogs winning outright against a -350 favorite in college football (entire game). Some interesting tidbits:

Through Week 6 of the 2012 College Football Season

-91.2% of favorites -350 or greater were winners (Lines based off Pinnacle closing #s)
-13 underdogs won outright out of a 147 game sample.
-Of those 13 underdogs, 5 teams upset were from the ACC. (38%)
-10 out of 13 upsets were BCS conference schools being upset (77%)
-Georgia Tech and Air Force have been upset as -350 or greater favorites TWICE


What can we learn from this? Well for one, the ACC cannot be trusted. Each year the few teams that are expected to carry the flag for the conference are beat by an inferior opponent. Clemson, Va Tech and FSU have each had their share of let downs in recent years. Also, these numbers are not to ensure that -350 will hit at a 90% clip, these numbers are padded by heavy moneyline favorites that offer little to no value to bet at all. Also not many non BCS conference schools were upset. I attibute that to a few things, one being that the disparity from top to bottom of these conferences could be so great that upsets are minimal. It also could be due to the fact that alot of these schools are going against BCS conference members early on in the year in non conference matchups to where they rarely are greater than a TD favorite.

In comparison to previous years, this year seems to be on pace for similar results. Phil Steele included a blog that referenced how often underdogs win outright from a 1997-2011. Teams that were 10.5 point favorites or greater were upset 9.8% of the time (compare to this year upsets occuring 8.8%). Seems like a good plan that will require patience and spots to be chosen wisely. Just wanted to share some info with you guys and if anyone wants me to analyze these numbers from a different angle, let me know. Best of luck.

Thanks for the information, man, I appreciate it. Some interesting stuff, but I honestly don't know if it changes the way I am approaching this "system". I don't just scroll down the list of games on Saturday and choose the first -350 or lower favorite. I actually look a lot deeper into the matchup and history of the teams. I also watch a ton of football, so I have some knowledge about some weaker teams that I try to avoid betting against.

[Beetlejuice]

Like I said, I've been doing something similar (unit system.) This week, I tried to incorporate soccer into this. I lost 2 units this morning in rapid succession with soccer.

The bottom line... Fack soccer betting.

[Titan_12]

Like I said, I've been doing something similar (unit system.) This week, I tried to incorporate soccer into this. I lost 2 units this morning in rapid succession with soccer.

The bottom line... Fack soccer betting.

[PoppaBags]

Anybody gonna be playing the Steelers game tomorrow night?

[pokerwhiz90]

yup already put 5 units on it earlier when the line was 5

[mcduggly]

Anybody gonna be playing the Steelers game tomorrow night?

I hate betting on primetime NFL games unless there's a huge discrepancy in talent between the two teams (like Browns and Ravens that I did to start attempt number 1). With that said, I think I am avoiding the game tomorrow night. Good luck if you bet on the Steelers though!

[mcduggly]

Attempt #2 - Bet #4 :
New York Yankees Do Not Win By Exactly 1 Run @-532
Bet $187.31 to win $35.21


I was looking at the games today, and I think this is the safest one of the day. The Reds and Giants should be decided by under 2 runs, so that game looks scary to me. I like the Yankees winning by a few in this game and Kuroda has looked sharp lately. Hopefully he shuts them down and the Yankee offense shows up big tonight! Good luck guys!

[Beetlejuice]

Attempt #2 - Bet #4 :
New York Yankees Do Not Win By Exactly 1 Run @-532
Bet $187.31 to win $35.21


I was looking at the games today, and I think this is the safest one of the day. The Reds and Giants should be decided by under 2 runs, so that game looks scary to me. I like the Yankees winning by a few in this game and Kuroda has looked sharp lately. Hopefully he shuts them down and the Yankee offense shows up big tonight! Good luck guys!

Im starting to get pissed off. I can not find these props with my book. You using 5 dimes?

[House]

Mcduggly, I cant find that bet...where is it? ..Im on 5dimes

[Thblur7]

Don't have that prop on my book so i bet Yankees -1 1/2 and Orioles ML

[kj8210]

Mcduggly, I cant find that bet...where is it? ..Im on 5dimes

Its on there. Its Underneath NYY win by exactly 1 run. Its "Any other result"@-532

[Titan_12]

Attempt #2 - Bet #4 :
New York Yankees Do Not Win By Exactly 1 Run @-532
Bet $187.31 to win $35.21


I was looking at the games today, and I think this is the safest one of the day. The Reds and Giants should be decided by under 2 runs, so that game looks scary to me. I like the Yankees winning by a few in this game and Kuroda has looked sharp lately. Hopefully he shuts them down and the Yankee offense shows up big tonight! Good luck guys!

Thanks!

Best of Luck to all!

[Beetlejuice]

Fricking my sportsbook doesn't have this. Dammit

[nic9212]

Lets rock and Roll
Bol everyone
New York Yankees Do Not Win By Exactly 1 Run @-532

[easyliving]

thanks for the play tailing it. hopefully A-rod finally has a big game and yanks blow them out.

[racer43]

Don't have that prop on my book so i bet Yankees -1 1/2 and Orioles ML

^^^^^^^^^^^ Beetlejuice, just make these two bets. you can use this dutching calculator http://football.aceodds.com/dutching-calculator.html to figure out exactly what to bet.

This is what I did for the Nats / Cards game. Which is looking good at the moment.

Been quietly tailing this thread all along. Thanks a lot mcduggly.

[Beetlejuice]

^^^^^^^^^^^ Beetlejuice, just make these two bets. you can use this dutching calculator http://football.aceodds.com/dutching-calculator.html to figure out exactly what to bet.

This is what I did for the Nats / Cards game. Which is looking good at the moment.

Been quietly tailing this thread all along. Thanks a lot mcduggly.

I'm playing around with the calculator. But why would he make a bet that yankees will beat the spread AND the orioles money line? Is he doing it as a parlay, or two separate bets? Walk me through this please

[bringyourDgame]

all you guys not findng it just bet Orioles ML and Yankees 1.5 to win the same amount of money... comes out the same, you cover everything except Yankees by 1..

[gh0zt]

Thanks for the picks mcduggly. Been lurking for years, but joined to subscribe. I'm up in NFL so I had an extra $100 to start this. Bet #1 for me was yesterday's nail biter. Will be tailing you the rest of the way.

[Beetlejuice]

so is this TWO separate bets? Not a parlay?

[racer43]

so is this TWO separate bets? Not a parlay?

yes it is two bets

[swordsandtequila]

I'm playing around with the calculator. But why would he make a bet that yankees will beat the spread AND the orioles money line? Is he doing it as a parlay, or two separate bets? Walk me through this please

The bet is the Yankees DO NOT win by exactly 1 run vs. any other result. If you don't have that prop, you need to cover both sides (Orioles win or Yankees win by 2+). Betting the Yankees run line (spread) doesn't help you if the Orioles win. The Dutching calculator allows you to split your bet so the net profit is the same.

[Beetlejuice]

yes it is two bets

Ok, so doing the math here:

If I was to bet $10 on on Yankees -1.5 (+115) for a potential win of $11.50 = totaling a payout of $21.50

If I was to be $10 on Orioles ML (+157) for a potential win of 15.70 = totaling a payout of $25.70.

(so depending on the outcome, I could either make 5.70, or 1.50, more likely than not, I'm guessing it would be the buck fifty)

[Glowww]

Ok, so doing the math here:

If I was to bet $10 on on Yankees -1.5 (+115) for a potential win of $11.50 = totaling a payout of $21.50

If I was to be $10 on Orioles ML (+157) for a potential win of 15.70 = totaling a payout of $25.70.

(so depending on the outcome, I could either make 5.70, or 1.50, more likely than not, I'm guessing it would be the buck fifty)

Yea Beetlejuice. I dont tail him on these bets because my site doesnt give that option of not winning by one run. And the 2 seperate bets its a dumb idea.

[racer43]

right but if you use the calculator with those odds you would bet $10.89 on the Yankee RL and $9.11 on the Orioles to win $23.41 either way.

[Beetlejuice]

Oh I see. So let me ask a question here, not about this actual game, but is this method of criss-crossing One teams ML and the opposing team's spread a viable option/betting strategy to increase you odds of a win? (In situations where you're laying a lot down)

[A4K]

There is more value, though admittedly not much, on betting the money line and the Yankees run line instead of the prop. Here is the math....

Reduced odds @ 5dimes

Bet $54.36 on Yankees -1.5 @ +120
Bet $45.65 on Orioles Money Line @ +162

Totals $100.01 to win $19.59

Any result other than a Yankees win by 1 run @ -532

$100.01 wins $18.80

[bringyourDgame]

Yea Beetlejuice. I dont tail him on these bets because my site doesnt give that option of not winning by one run. And the 2 seperate bets its a dumb idea.

How is it dumb? you get exactly the same bet at more or less the same odds.
How can that be a dumb idea?

[haserfauld]

Yea Beetlejuice. I dont tail him on these bets because my site doesnt give that option of not winning by one run. And the 2 seperate bets its a dumb idea.

No, the 2 bets is fine. Example:

He bet $187.31 to win $35.21

Two bets:

Yankees -1.5 (+115): bet $101.99
Orioles ML (+157): bet $85.32

If either win, you'll win $31.97

So $3.24 less than the parlay for the same exact bet.

[racer43]

well theres only one out come that you lose. Yanks win by one!!

Gloww might think this is a stupid idea, but it has been a part of turning $100 into more than $1200 in less than two weeks??

[A4K]

well theres only one out come that you lose. Yanks win by one!!

Gloww might think this is a stupid idea, but it has been a part of turning $100 into more than $1200 in less than two weeks??

I don't like this bet because the Yankees are at home, but that is a different argument.

[racer43]

well if you think the Yankees win by one dont bet it.