How good are my stats after backtest?

unusialsusp5 · 12-26-16, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by Jan Richter

Hello guys. So after a backtest with a new system i have the following stats:

514 Bets
88.56 Units profit
36.88 Units max drawdown
75.49% Winrate
I would have to calculate the avg win to avg loss manually which would take a while but obv the losses are (much) bigger than the wins.

Now is this good or bad? The drawdown seems very high. But it was only 1 instance - usually the max drawdown was at -13 Units.

Any thoughts?

i'm not sure, but i don't think anyone on here has a semblance of a clue about what you're talking about.

Waterstpub87 · 12-27-16, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by Jan Richter

Hello guys. So after a backtest with a new system i have the following stats:

514 Bets
88.56 Units profit
36.88 Units max drawdown
75.49% Winrate
I would have to calculate the avg win to avg loss manually which would take a while but obv the losses are (much) bigger than the wins.

Now is this good or bad? The drawdown seems very high. But it was only 1 instance - usually the max drawdown was at -13 Units.

Any thoughts?

You obviously know that 75+% win rate is good if used on 50/50 wagers like ats and totals. It is also extremely unlikely to continue. There is no need to use empirical drawdown for sports wagers, as you can solve parametricly when you have a better estimate of your win rate.

It is helpful if you actually state what you are betting. If it is spreads, you won't win 75% of them. If this is heavy ML favorites, ok, that is more realistic. If this is a chase system, and the wins represent successful series, just take what money you would bet and just burn it now and save the headache.

Are you beating the closing line?

Optional · 12-27-16, 01:29 PM

You will get more useful information about this by posting in the Handicapper Think Tank Jan.