Indiana favored?

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:18 AM

It is in Indy and i think it should really be more of a pick em.

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:23 AM

Even if the game is in Indy, Wisky should be favored, thats not even debatable. As long as the game ISN'T in Bloomington, Wisconsin should be favored. This makes zero sense. I may write Wisconsin down to -2 or -2.5 knowing Indiana is the de facto home team in the tournament but still, its not like they are playing at home

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:26 AM

If you feel so strongly about it then i expect you to unload on Wisky +2. Every time i see your avatar i think about him blaming Call of Duty for one of their losses

camelbreath$ · 03-09-12, 02:28 AM

Lines aren't set based on a teams strengths alone. Lines are set to garner action on both sides.

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:29 AM

Hoosiers win this by close to DDs

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:29 AM

Trying to talk myself out of unloading on a game that neither really needs but its too tempting when I see at least 4-5 points of value

BernardMadoff · 03-09-12, 02:30 AM

How motivated do you expect Wisconsin to be, I dont think they will be too motivated to go all out to win, this is the perfect spot for Indiana to win for the 2nd time against Wisconsin in the last 11 tries.

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by camelbreath$

Lines aren't set based on a teams strengths alone. Lines are set to garner action on both sides.

they are power ratings based, action on both sides is irrelevent, that's pretty basic stuff. Look how many sides end up with 70% on them

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

How motivated do you expect Wisconsin to be, I dont think they will be too motivated to go all out to win, this is the perfect spot for Indiana to win for the 2nd time against Wisconsin in the last 11 tries.

Should Indiana be much more motivated? Both are in similar spots IMO. Still, big factor

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut

Hoosiers win this by close to DDs

Agree. If Indy was +2 they would be getting all the action

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:32 AM

Wisky got EVERY call back in Madison and it was still a toss-up coming down the stretch. IU is playing some of the best ball in the country the last few weeks. With Verdell going down (not really a big loss at all in terms of productivity and what it does to the team) there is even more motivation for this team. Crean nearly crying at the end when talking about Jones and everything he's been through at IU. Trust me, this team is crazy motivated to win this whole damn thing right now. Not to mention that place will be 90% IU fans tomorrow.

Does that help talk you out of it?

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:34 AM

That game today completely turned around once Verdell went down. This team is going to do it for him. The line could be IU -12 and I wouldn't risk it (slight exaggeration but you get what I mean).

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:35 AM

If Indy wins my +775 bet on them winning the tourney will start to look a lot better!

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:36 AM

no offense guy but an IU fan complaining about home cooking is hilarious. No amount of bullshit amounts to the 4 point swing in the line that we should be seeing

camelbreath$ · 03-09-12, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

they are power ratings based, action on both sides is irrelevent, that's pretty basic stuff. Look how many sides end up with 70% on them

C'mon man. 70% of the bets does not necessitate 70% of the money. Yes, lines are opened based on power ratings, along with opinions on public perception by line-makers. Vegas and the books ideal scenario for every game is to have 50% of the money on either side of the spread for every game, so that they can earn on the vig while eliminating any chance of losing money due to large exposure on one side. FACTS.

camelbreath$ · 03-09-12, 02:38 AM

Anyhow if you think the line is set incorrectly or the wrong team is favored, then POUND IT!

kufan11 · 03-09-12, 02:41 AM

Have to agree especially with verdell jones getting injured last game, it looked pretty bad very unlikely he will play.

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by camelbreath$

C'mon man. 70% of the bets does not necessitate 70% of the money. Yes, lines are opened based on power ratings, along with opinions on public perception by line-makers. Vegas and the books ideal scenario for every game is to have 50% of the money on either side of the spread for every game, so that they can earn on the vig while eliminating any chance of losing money due to large exposure on one side. FACTS.

do you have any idea how long it would take to figure that out? They use power ratings, that is a common fact. 50-50 action is a joke, they don't really care. Lines comes up so quick that there is no way they can factor how to get even action, they just go by their numbers

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:42 AM

Lines are based on what the big bettors, aka sharps do. They could give two shits what you, i, and fatass armchair quarterback Joe bet. They make lines to protect against the guys that do this for a living, betting 10s of Ks. Should the line be Wisky -2? Possibly. But Vegas knows sharps would pound the SHIT out of IU. Same exact thing as when IU played UK. Opened something like UK -3, people said should have been UK -10 (and possibly it should have). But Vegas knew IU had a better chance than Joe Schmo thought they had, and set it much lower. The fact that Vegas is putting this at IU -1.5 shows that Vegas thinks theres a gooooood possibility Indiana wins this, possibly pretty easily.

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

do you have any idea how long it would take to figure that out? They use power ratings, that is a common fact. 50-50 action is a joke, they don't really care. Lines comes up so quick that there is no way they can factor how to get even action, they just go by their numbers

It doesn't take much to add a couple factors into power rankings. Simple spreadsheet modeling and regressions could be used to factor in where they think money will come and quickly alter their spreads to consider this.

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:44 AM

Originally posted by camelbreath$

Anyhow if you think the line is set incorrectly or the wrong team is favored, then POUND IT!

Exactly, then pound it and stop questioning it. I tried to give you some reasons to not do it, but it's your money. Just remember there's a reason Wisky isn't favored tomorrow.

camelbreath$ · 03-09-12, 02:45 AM

Exactly, 10,000 dudes betting $25 on Indiana because they grew up middle of nowhere, Indiana is the equivalent to Big Fish Vegas Man betting $250,000 on Wisconsin because he's got a sharp angle. That is how lines are hammered and set.

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:46 AM

you dont understand the essence of sports betting pal, Indy -3 vs UK was right. Kentucky would be -7 on a neutral floor. The numbers I'm using are the ones Vegas was using just one month ago. Nothing that drastic has happened lately so why should Indiana be favored. It's a logic problem that I don't think anybody can answer

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut

Lines are based on what the big bettors, aka sharps do. They could give two shits what you, i, and fatass armchair quarterback Joe bet. They make lines to protect against the guys that do this for a living, betting 10s of Ks. Should the line be Wisky -2? Possibly. But Vegas knows sharps would pound the SHIT out of IU. Same exact thing as when IU played UK. Opened something like UK -3, people said should have been UK -10 (and possibly it should have). But Vegas knew IU had a better chance than Joe Schmo thought they had, and set it much lower. The fact that Vegas is putting this at IU -1.5 shows that Vegas thinks theres a gooooood possibility Indiana wins this, possibly pretty easily.

Wait... don't you mean a good possibility wisky wins it since the line is only 1.5? Your whole point was small UK line bc they thought IU could win and then you went and said they made the IU line small bc they don't want to take the hit on IU winning??

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by camelbreath$

Exactly, 10,000 dudes betting $25 on Indiana because they grew up middle of nowhere, Indiana is the equivalent to Big Fish Vegas Man betting $250,000 on Wisconsin because he's got a sharp angle. That is how lines are hammered and set.

thats an example but they have no clue how to get even money. They set a good line and hope for the best

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:49 AM

Missed my point a little there, let me clear what I was saying up a little.

In the UK game line was slanted further toward IU than people thought it should be because Vegas knew they had a better chance of keeping it close/winning than joe schmo did.

Same here. Line is more in favor of IU than people think it should be because Vegas knows they have a better chance of keeping it close/winning than joe schmo did.

camelbreath$ · 03-09-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

thats an example but they have no clue how to get even money. They set a good line and hope for the best

Yup, you're right, Vegas has no idea how to set even lines so that they can ensure they are not being overly exposed and ensure that they will continue to make money day after day....

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

thats an example but they have no clue how to get even money. They set a good line and hope for the best

Exactly. And obviously they don't think Wisky -3 is a good line. There's a very good reason the fave is flipped from what you may think.

Frisco · 03-09-12, 02:52 AM

Lol all this analysis seems unnecessary. Just pick your pony

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by camelbreath$

Yup, you're right, Vegas has no idea how to set even lines so that they can ensure they are not being overly exposed and ensure that they will continue to make money day after day....

their exposure isn't that great on the majority of games. Do you realize how many games they have to balance? They understand that they are pretty well diversified for the most part so they dont sweat it. Pretty simple

TPowell · 03-09-12, 02:53 AM

Pinny was up to Wisky +2.5 (-141) if anybody is interested

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:54 AM

2:10	Christian Watford made Jumper.	50-51

espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=320260275

Check it out. It was a 1 point game with 2 minutes to play. That game back in January was a toss-up, even being played AT Wisky.

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:54 AM

You act as if Wisky was easily in control of that last game in Madison. It was a toss-up!

Mr. Doughnut · 03-09-12, 02:55 AM

Not to mention IU was in the midst of its worst basketball of the year at that time.