Bassmaster's daily tackle box thread

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 12:55 PM

NOTE TONY MITCHELL IS OUT FOR ALABAMA AND SUSPENDED IN TONIGHTS GAME AGAINST AUBURN. fOR NOW LEAN IS BEING PUULED OUT FOR NOW!!

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by jameski999

No u don't have a better chance of winning, 70 plays is 70 plays no matter the time table. But at the rate Bass is handicapping now he will have 2000+ plays in 3 months. Doesn't matter what anybody says the more games u bet the more you will lose. Bass was gaining peoples respect/ credibility last week in another thread by giving 1-2 picks a night and now he's playing almost every game on the board. BOL to everyone

JAMES THE BOTTOM LINE LAST WEEK WAS JUST STARTING THE SYTEM LEARNING AND WENT BALLS OUT ON IT TO START THE MONTH SATURDAY AND IT WAS UNFUC**N BELIEVABLE THE FIRST 6 HOURS INTO IT AND THAN OF COURSE NO MATTER WHAT IN LIFE THE SEE SAW STARTED TO SWAY UP AND DOWN AT TIMES. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT ALWAYS BE ALOT OF PLAYS PLAYED. AS OF RIGHT NOW i AM ONLY CONSIDERING BETWEEN 3-5 BUT THAT IS NOT EVEN CONCRETE RIGHT NOW. THAN CAME SUPERBOWL SUNDAY AND STARTED THE DAY AND ITS POSTED THAT NEW ENGLAND WAS GOING TO SPANK THE GIANTS AND WAS VERY UPSET WITH THE NUMBERS BEING SHOWN IN THAT GAME, BUT LOVED THE NUMBERS BEING PROCESSED FOR AN EASY UNDER GAME! NOTE THIS AT THE TIME WAS WITHOUT THE SYSTEM AND DECIDED TO TRY IT WITH THE NFL BUT HAD TO CHANGE THE RATIO POINTS FROM BASKETBALL TO FOOTBALL. IT WASN'T DESIGNED FOR FOOTBALL AND COULDN'T BELIEVE HOW IT HAD THE GIANTS WINNING THE SUPERBOWL BY 4 POINTS AND THREW A TOTAL AT ME OF 44 POINTS. THAN IT SPIT OUT THE GAME PREDICTION OF 24-20. I WILL TELL YOU WHAT IT WAS ON THE MONEY AND JUST WENT TO TOWN ON A HUNCH WITH THAT AND WELL THE OUTCOME WAS BOOOOOM!!!!!!

AS FAR AS GAINING RESPECT OR LOSING RESPECT THATS ALL IN THE LONG HAUL MY FRIEND AND YES ANYBODY STARTING OUT ON THE RIGHT FOOT WITH SOME WINS UNDER HIS BELT. I DON'T THINK HE OR SHE GAINS RESPECT WITHIN A WEEK OF POSTING PICKS. I BELIEVE IT IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE EARNED IN THE LONG HAUL. JUST MY TWO CENTS

Tower · 02-07-12, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by jameski999

Doesn't matter what anybody says the more games u bet the more you will lose.

Correct, there will be more losses, but as long as the rate of success is the same, it doesn't matter. Arbitrarily saying that betting more guarantees you will lose is nonsense. Then what is your cutoff?? 3 bets/day?? 8? 15?? 40??? Assuming that all wagers are one unit with standard juice, the absolute ONLY thing that matters is that you hit 56%, that's it, end of story. If you can do that, then you will be successful, if not then you will lose, regardless of how many bets you place.

Anyway, my apologies for hi-jacking the thread a bit. Keep up the good work!

I do have one question though, does your system make picks based on buying points? Or do you decide to do buy points on your own, (which you're entitled to). It would seem to me that if your system makes a pick based on good value that is finds on a standard line or whatever, what is the need for buying points? I would think that it would just be cutting into your rate of return. BUT if the system makes picks based ON buying points, then is there really that much value in that pick?

RoadDog · 02-07-12, 01:50 PM

The point is, you bet your 2-3 BEST games of the day. If you do that over the span of 2,000 plays you are going to have a much better success rate than just betting 2,000 random games in a row like Bass is doing now.

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 02:05 PM

The system buys the points on both ends and calculates a percentage that is tossed into a bowl of salad mixed with the games over all ratio number that the computer chooses to come out with a predicted conclusion. It is than that it lets you know to go in to the wager even, -120 , -130, up to -140 anything above NO PLAY, but if it hits a -170 which of course doesn't exist in real life wagering with points or higher we have a complete reversal and jump ship to the other TEAM COMPLETELY

That has not happened yet though in cbb, but it did happen in the GIANTS GAME

One more note on a games total there is no buying of points within the system. It just spits out a final total after processing. I actually need to look back on my actual posts for my game totals record

Tower · 02-07-12, 02:44 PM

Hmmm.... interesting. I guess I've never been a fan of buying points.

jameski999 · 02-07-12, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Tower

Correct, there will be more losses, but as long as the rate of success is the same, it doesn't matter. Arbitrarily saying that betting more guarantees you will lose is nonsense. Then what is your cutoff?? 3 bets/day?? 8? 15?? 40??? Assuming that all wagers are one unit, the absolute ONLY thing that matters is that you hit 56%, that's it, end of story. If you can do that, then you will be successful, if not then you will lose, regardless of how many bets you place.

Anyway, my apologies for hi-jacking the thread a bit. Keep up the good work!

I do have one question though, does your system make picks based on buying points? Or do you decide to do buy points on your own, (which you're entitled to). It would seem to me that if your system makes a pick based on good value that is finds on a standard line or whatever, what is the need for buying points? I would think that it would just be cutting into your rate of return. BUT if the system makes picks based ON buying points, then is there really that much value in that pick?

If your playing 15-20 games a night and buying points on 80% of the games, you would have to pick winners at or above 65% to return a profit. An well if that's the case I will be watching you on a 60 minutes special instead of Billy Walters. BOL I will drop it now, and let Bass have his thread back

dugdogg · 02-07-12, 02:51 PM

how about we'll let bass do his thing, now that he has his own thread and time will tell. you gotta understand if you're playing way more games per day now, then the amount you wager on each game is way less. so you can't compare units won if you play a few games as opposed to 15+, because your dollars/unit is WAY lower

TheAntFather · 02-07-12, 04:25 PM

I think Bass can do whatever he wants to. He's shown he's a successful capper. But, I do hope and think that he should put unit sizes for his favorite picks or strongest picks of the day. For example:

Oklahoma St -2 5*
Alabama -5.5 1*

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 05:50 PM

Plays comming soon

Tower · 02-07-12, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

The point is, you bet your 2-3 BEST games of the day. If you do that over the span of 2,000 plays you are going to have a much better success rate than just betting 2,000 random games in a row like Bass is doing now.

Originally posted by jameski999

If your playing 15-20 games a night and buying points on 80% of the games, you would have to pick winners at or above 65% to return a profit. An well if that's the case I will be watching you on a 60 minutes special instead of Billy Walters. BOL I will drop it now, and let Bass have his thread back

Well then we'll just have to disagree then.. Have either of you read (or anyone else for that matter read) the Kelly criterion? If not, you should, it's not perfect but it will change how you view betting, and it will make you think about what is important when placing bets and a little money management. Then maybe you'll come to my way of thinking, it's a numbers game. Not to mention many business people (like warren buffet) use techniques and theory's from it to determine investment strategies.

SimonSayz · 02-07-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by bassmaster

Plays comming soon

Look forward to them....it's Kill the Bookie time.

I personally like the OVER in the Pho/Milwaukee game.

shocktopme · 02-07-12, 06:39 PM

.

Big Daddy Bass with the Av with the nice ass!!!!What you got my friend.......waiting for ya

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 06:41 PM

Iowa state +2.5 (-120)

clemson over 135

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 08:01 PM

Adding iowa state +2 second half

JR007 · 02-07-12, 08:02 PM

checking in, good luck !!!!

Sourbumpy · 02-07-12, 08:04 PM

Bol bass get that cash

JR007 · 02-07-12, 08:37 PM

read some of the previous posts, ......do think you have to be selective, but I do not know enough about your system to be judgemental, with the large sample size ncaa baskets offers there is some good value,I see it everyday, but the key is how you dissect the information given.......good luck

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 08:57 PM

adding alabama over 121

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 09:03 PM

adding ohio state under 130

southpaw74 · 02-07-12, 09:09 PM

Best of luck tonight bass

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 09:11 PM

Adding kansas state -7 second half

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 09:16 PM

TUESDAYS PLAYS

Iowa state +2.5 (-120) (WINNER)
clemson over 135 (LOSER)
Iowa state +2 second half (LOSER)
alabama over 121 (PENDING)
ohio state under 130 (PENDING)
kansas state -7 second half (PENDING)

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 10:00 PM

Adding alabama over 65 second half

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 10:05 PM

Adding ohio state under 71 second half

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 10:07 PM

Adding nba oklahoma city -1.5 (-130)

CLITcommander44 · 02-07-12, 10:07 PM

bassmaster you love to back up every one of your bets at halftime regardless if there winning or losing..is this how the system goes or your just confident

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 10:12 PM

Alright guys thats it time to let these plays ride and see where the compass takes us. The system is throwing these plays at me and have to ride them. Good luck and good night!!

bassmaster · 02-07-12, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by CLITcommander44

bassmaster you love to back up every one of your bets at halftime regardless if there winning or losing..is this how the system goes or your just confident

REAL QUICK THIS IS WHAT IT DOES i NEVER KNOW HOW MANY PLAYS THAT i HAVE TO PLAY TONIGHT IT THREW THESE SECOND HALF PLAYS AT ME AND SOMETIMES IT WILL THROW NONE. GOOD LUCK GOOD NIGHT

southpaw74 · 02-07-12, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by bassmaster

Adding nba oklahoma city -1.5 (-130)

Major RLM on this game that points to warriors. Should be interesting

CLITcommander44 · 02-07-12, 10:20 PM

oklahoma line is extremely fishy ..RLM hasn't been as effective in NBA as its been in NCAAB.. i still like OKc

nammertl · 02-07-12, 11:21 PM

another horrible night.

SimonSayz · 02-08-12, 06:18 AM

Good job Bass...keep up the great work. I hit on the Pho/Mil Over (2x) and a 4 team parlay (2x)....+4x....

.

I look forward to the action today.

bassmaster · 02-08-12, 06:38 AM

TUESDAYS FISHING RESULTS:

Iowa state +2.5 (-120) (WINNER)
clemson over 135 (LOSER)
Iowa state +2 second half (LOSER)
alabama over 121 (LOSER)
ohio state under 130 (LOSER)
kansas state -7 second half (LOSER)
alabama over 65 second half (LOSER)
ohio state under 71 second half (LOSER)
"NBA" oklahoma city -1.5 (-130) (WINNER)

****WE HIT SOME HIDDEN ROCKS IN THE WATER YESTERDAY, BUT THE BOAT IS REPAIRABLE. LETS GET IT FIXED AND CATCH SOME FISH TONIGHT

****2-7 ON YESTERDAYS TRIP
****10-13 ON THE WEEKLY TRIP
**** -$3720 CLAMS FOR THE DAY
****OVER ALL TACKLE BOX RECORD: 59-43-1
****OVER ALL TREASURE CHEST TOTAL $20,020.00

TUESDAYS LEANS:

3-2 ON THE NIGHT

Maryland +8 (WINNER)
florida +9.5 (WINNER)
providence +7.5 (WINNER)
creighton -5.5 (LOSER)
kentucky over 142 (LOSER)

*****OVER ALL LEANS RECORD 6-2

(note Leans that turned into plays are not recorderd as wins or loses in the Leans record, but wins & loses in my Tackle Box Record

bassmaster · 02-08-12, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by simonsayz

good job bass...keep up the great work. I hit on the pho/mil over (2x) and a 4 team parlay (2x)....+4x....:d.

I look forward to the action today.

goodmorning simon i wouldn't call it a good job at all, but i am assuming by reading your thread you were on oklahoma city, than if that is all you played than i can understand you telling me i did a great job but this is about the overall. To the ones who followed and won congrats and to most i believe who followed and lost. My apologies. I just want to concentrate today with possitive flow going into tonights actions.

Here is an update if i take another substantial loss tonight. The next stage of this system says that i need to take 10% more 4 days early and deposit it into the program. I do not understand so don't ask what it does with it or how this part is processed. This part has never been used yet anyway. We will see if we get to that point (which of course we don't even want to and hopefully we don't go that route.

Hope everyone has a great day!!