CrimsonQueen's CBB 2010-2011

[CrimsonQueen]

This year in the Big East:
52-40-1 (56.52% ATS/Totals)
***Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)***
Conference Season:
35-20 (63.64% ATS)
Big East Tournament / NCAA Tournament:
6-9 (40%)

Total for the year:
+15.09 Units

We had a great year. Took a number of really bad blows to the jaw with some of those game endings... like UConn throwing the ball to the wrong team... and Notre Dame blowing a 16 point halftime lead to Louisville...and a couple half point losses at the buzzer when the points the other team were scoring didn't matter... Utah St. missing a 3 at the end of the game for the PUSH...while Michigan St. simultaneously surmounted a 30 point comeback only to travel on the final possession where they could've won the game -- AND PUSHED the -1... Let's throw in Florida having not one but TWO opportunities today to win the game with the final possessions and blowing them both... Lots of things went horribly wrong this year, and I fully anticipate making 10% more money next year.

The bad losses are a good thing in a sense, because they account for a good portion of the losses we sustained. If we cover by 10 every time we win, and lose by 2 every time we lose, that means we're on the right side of games. In the long run, we'll keep on grinding out the profit! It's all about the long run.

That is all.

Be back tomorrow for a potential play, though the spreads tomorrow aren't friendly. (a 1 point game and an 11 point game)

[GTforme]

Good morning CQ (and everyone onboard).

I've heard it said repeatedly in wagering circles this year that the Florida Gators have no heart, as much as I tend to agree w/that, yesterday looked to me to be as much a result of poor coaching as anything else. At any rate and for whatever reasons, you're right CQ, it was a pathetic performance by them.

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[514] FLORIDA -4-110 looser
516] CONNECTICUT -150winner
517] IONA -2-110winner
8614] PHILADELPHIA -111 (MLS soccer play currently playing)winner

Yes CQ, I jumped UConn hard... but I was in the sauce and never came back to say how I played them, but I meant to post it.

I did hammer UConn (-3)... bought the hook looser. I also played the total Under, which as we know hit big winner.

... so all that just washed out.

I'll be checking in throughout the day.

GL to all today!

Money management... Money management... Money management...Money management

You're right CQ... can't say it enough!

[CrimsonQueen]

Computer lean:
Kansas -11 is the play. My analysis has them winning by (wait for it)... > 16 points. Now here's why I'm not playing it:
Heart. The one thing my computers cannot calculate is heart. Some my argue that this doesn't really exist and that the numbers are always right (and in most games, I might agree). But when something this important is on the line, (one-and-done / Final Four / potential championship title) heart DOES come into play. How much is a great question. Look at a team like Butler... they SHOULD NOT BE HERE. They just shouldn't be.
The Odds of Butler making the Final Four before the tournament began? According to Log5 Analysis: exactly 1%
But even more improbable: Odds of VCU making the Elite 8: 0.2%
Even more improbable: Odds of VCU to make the Final 4: 0.03%

Other fun numbers:
Odds of Butler winning the tournament: 2506 - 1
Odds of VCU winning the tournament: 203,187 - 1

Statistically speaking... neither of these teams should be there, but tHEy ARe There.

One reason. HEART.


...Oh, and also a ton of luck.

[GTforme]

So true CQ. Anyone who has watched Butler or VCU in this tounament, and then has watched the Florida Gators, knows the definition of HEART.

[GTforme]

SBR pts parlay. Just fiddling here,trying to get a foothold on re-building my SBR points acct. somewhat.

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[720] NORTH CAROLINA +2-120 (B+½)
[720] TOTAL u146-110
(KENTUCKY vrs NORTH CAROLINA)
[721] VA COMMONWEALTH +12-120 (B+½)Heart is huge factor here

Don't really know yet if I'll have any money plays today or not. I'm reading and thinking as I have time.

I've still got to put the bathroom back together after unclogging the drain yesterday... could use a shower...ain't life fun!!!!!!!!!

CQ, have you run anything on the UNC/KTY game per chance... or might you?

[CrimsonQueen]

Sure GT, I gotta go eat breakfast (at 1:23 PM I still haven't eaten...heh) I'll post a little later with the UNC/KTY game results.

[CrimsonQueen]

I'm seeing a close to correct line here... it seems like a total coin flip. Slight edge to Kentucky -1, but not to -1.5. Kentucky -1 is not a bad play potentially because it's like getting the ML at a reduced price where if they win, you don't lose - if they win by exactly 1 you PUSH. (in theory that's not 100% accurate but because 2 is the key number, it kind of is... long story)
I have Kentucky winning this game 55.8% of the time.... So Kentucky -1 is the play.

1 Unit
Kentucky -1

[CrimsonQueen]

Go smaller on that one if you don't trust it... It is a little iffy... but the numbers say there's a slight edge, so I'll take it. If you have a small edge and bet it a million times, you'll win money. A small edge once, and you are basically flipping a coin that you'll win 54% of the time.

[GTforme]

Many thanx for the input my friend.

Just had breakfast myself....

Just don't have the confidence on the intangibles to make a play on KTY side and really feel/think the same about the UNC side.

The public seems to be on the total Over about 2:1. I'm thinking I might go small-money, say 1/2 unit, on the Under, which is consistent w/the SBR point parlay I played. I've preseved myself and my bankroll pretty well so far w/the Tounament and want to live to brag about it!

BTW, it's not a huge factor w/ me, but I use both SBR and Pregame.com to see where the moneys going sometimes. Do you use anything, particularly anything different?

GL (if you made the KTY play). I won't be going against you if I end up taking the Under. I'd hate going against you... you usually win!

[GTforme]

Computer lean:
Kansas -11 is the play. My analysis has them winning by (wait for it)... > 16 points. Now here's why I'm not playing it:
Heart. The one thing my computers cannot calculate is heart. Some my argue that this doesn't really exist and that the numbers are always right (and in most games, I might agree). But when something this important is on the line, (one-and-done / Final Four / potential championship title) heart DOES come into play. How much is a great question. Look at a team like Butler... they SHOULD NOT BE HERE. They just shouldn't be.
The Odds of Butler making the Final Four before the tournament began? According to Log5 Analysis: exactly 1%
But even more improbable: Odds of VCU making the Elite 8: 0.2%
Even more improbable: Odds of VCU to make the Final 4: 0.03%

Other fun numbers:
Odds of Butler winning the tournament: 2506 - 1
Odds of VCU winning the tournament: 203,187 - 1

Statistically speaking... neither of these teams should be there, but tHEy ARe There.

One reason. HEART.


...Oh, and also a ton of luck.

VCU Tirebiters - .03% statistically, 99.97% effort and heart!
Looking like they might just beat the Jayhawks outright! I'd be willing to bet small school college coaches, high school included, will be studying this run and Shaka Smart's coaching for a loooooong time.

[CrimsonQueen]

No doubt... this game is unreal! I'm totally cheering on the Rams, cuz if they win, I win a T-shirt and hat from The Greek
The only way for me to "Beat The Greek" was for Kansas to lose this game... and now it's actually looking possible!!

As for the Over/Under on the Kentucky/UNC game... I saw a LOT of reason to take BOTH sides. Be careful. I think Kentucky slows the game down enough (just need to play at their pace as opposed to UNC's pace). But if UNC keeps the game faster paced, it's gonna go over.

Kentucky's road has been tougher: had to beat the #5 WVU then the #1 overall seed in the tourney Ohio State... UNC only had to beat #7 Washington (who in my mind are better than WVU...but Washington blew that game) and #11 Marquette, which was an easy match up. (compared to Ohio State!)

Back to the game!

[CrimsonQueen]

4 minutes into this half, I'm gonna say the Rams have no chance. They fell apart... and now a technical on Smart. Not so smart, I'd say.

[GTforme]

4 minutes into this half, I'm gonna say the Rams have no chance. They fell apart... and now a technical on Smart. Not so smart, I'd say.

WRONG!

Other than that........................ I'm speechless... Rarely happens!

... and a little of this...

[CrimsonQueen]

WOW. At the Under 16 Timeout... Kansas was back to 67% to win. And VCU dug deep... I'm speechless. That was one amazing game. Kansas had the worst PPP they've had all year. And VCU shot lights out. Now you've got Butler and VCU in the Final Four!? One of them is going to have a shot at the championship! And they'll be up against a #2, #3, or #4 seed.

Kemba Walker is licking his lips right now....

[GTforme]

Good reasoning on the KTY/UNC matchup CQ.

That's what I'm seeing too CQ. Just thinking that KTY has developed enough by now in the season to do what's needed and keep the pace slow and therefore to their advantage. They surely realize that is absolutely necessary.

NO #1 seeds left... WOW!

On that Under, but not enough to hurt.

Nice Sunday afternoon thus far........

[GTforme]

WOW. At the Under 16 Timeout... Kansas was back to 67% to win. And VCU dug deep... I'm speechless. That was one amazing game. Kansas had the worst PPP they've had all year. And VCU shot lights out. Now you've got Butler and VCU in the Final Four!? One of them is going to have a shot at the championship! And they'll be up against a #2, #3, or #4 seed.

Kemba Walker is licking his lips right now....

Had to LOL CQ!

They had Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb on for interviews during the UNC/ KTY halftime. Did you happen to see Kemba literally... licking his lips.

You even called that!

[CrimsonQueen]

Kentucky is trying to blow this game with a little help from some weak calls from the refs. I'm gonna lose my mind if Kentucky loses this........ They were 79% to win at the half.......

[CrimsonQueen]

And GT, haha.... I did see Kemba *literally* licking his lips at this opportunity!

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Kentucky -1 - WIN!

Had a little bad run for a while but we're back to our winning ways!

[CrimsonQueen]

This year in the Big East:
52-40-1 (56.52% ATS/Totals)
***Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)***
Conference Season:
35-20 (63.64% ATS)
Big East Tournament / NCAA Tournament:
7-9 (43.75%)

Total for the year:
+16.09 Units

[GTforme]

Yeap CQ, I got the Under 146 for a winner also.

I lost my SBR points parlay, but what the hey... I got the money!

Good day my friend.........

buzzzzz... out for the night

[GTforme]

Good morning CQ,

Seeing Creighton @ -4 and some are liking that.

Be back later....

[GTforme]

Still trying to get a foothold to gain back some SBR points... trying this today for the fun of that challenge:

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[735] ORLANDO -1-120 (B+½) - NBA
[744] CREIGHTON -4-130 (B+1) - CBI
[4746] A PAVLYUCHENKOV -105 - WTA, (Women's Tennis)
Ouote, "Pavly is in fine form and I will ride her for the rest of this tournament". Tailing a solid women's tennis capper from CBS Lock Thread.

[GTforme]

Brian Gregory of Dayton to GT:

http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-tech-sports/2011/03/28/video-brian-gregory-to-georgia-tech/?cxntfid=blogs_georgia_tech_sports

[CrimsonQueen]

Log5 Final Four:

Kentucky 45%
UConn 30%
Butler 15%
VCU 10%

The value here may be whoever you think is going to win between Kentucky & UConn... instead of betting them on the spread (or ML) for this game, bet Kentucky (say) to win the whole thing. Cuz whoever wins this game will be a big favorite come Monday night next week.

I figured out all the projected spreads and ML's of every possible Final matchup... and it ranges from a 5 point spread to an 8.5 spread.

Would be super ironic to have Butler +6 in the championship game AGAIN...

[GTforme]

Too bad that a VCU/Butler Final is not at least possible. Sports world would be abuzzzz!

[CrimsonQueen]

lol...if it were possible, neither of them would make it But if they did...basketball would surely be ruined forever when they extended the field to 168 teams next year...only to have team 169 complain about "why are we the bubble team??"

[snapperman2]

I think you may be underestimating Butler and VCU. Look at who they beat. VCU beat Kansas, and Butler beat Wisconsin and Florida. If they beat those teams they have a good chance of beating Kentucky or Connecticut. I'm a little biased though. I made a bet on Butler to win the championship when they made the sweet 16, so I'm hoping they win.

[GTforme]

Ha.... yeah, I expect there to be just as much grousing w/the extension of the field as there was b4.

I really don't know what they thought they were accomplishing, except maybe more games - more money........

Watch 10% VCU wallop 15% Butler... and would not completely shock me to see 'em win the final.

[GTforme]

I think you may be underestimating Butler and VCU. Look at who they beat. VCU beat Kansas, and Butler beat Wisconsin and Florida. If they beat those teams they have a good chance of beating Kentucky or Connecticut. I'm a little biased though. I made a bet on Butler to win the championship when they made the sweet 16, so I'm hoping they win.

I did the same thing pre-touney w/VCU. Very small wager... very nice payout.
So I guess I'm a little biased myself. Not really counting on it though. Then again stranger things have happened.

[CrimsonQueen]

Here's the thing: Butler and VCU shouldn't be there. They aren't great teams. Bottom line is they won in spots where they were going to win 20% of the time. That isn't REALLY an upset: it's statistically going to happen 1 every 5 times. However, the REAL upset is that it kept happening. But with 64 teams and this tournament going for years and years...statistically it would be more of an anomaly for something like this to NOT happen.

ALSO, Butler and VCU are 15% and 10% NOW to win the tourney. One of them HAS to win the next game, and then suddenly one will almost absorb the others percent making one of them about 25% to win the tourney. (maybe even closer to 35%, depending on who wins each game!) So ONE of those two (terrible!) teams is going to win the championship title 1 out of 3 times this year!

I like to imagine parallel universes... And in one out of three of them in a week, lots of people will be saying how statistically impossible it was that VCU/Butler won the title. But at this point, it doesn't matter if they win or not, they already defied the odds.

(Look at the stats I posted before about #1/#2 Offenses winning the last 6 years! This year a 32 or a 29 ranked team could take it down. After 6 straight years of 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1. And the two years prior to these stats it was a 4th ranked offensive efficiency and the year before that 11th! No where is a 32 or 29th ranked team (with terrible defenses, both of them) winning the tournament!

[CrimsonQueen]

(and by terrible, I mean 88th! and 59th!!)

[GTforme]

Good evening CQ.

I keep remembering Georgia Tech in 2004 making it to the final game.

I'll see if I can find what their offensive and defensive efficiencies were that season for curiousities sake... or would you have easy access to that CQ in your statistics work CQ?

[GTforme]

Still trying to re-coup my SBR points dang it:

PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[759] WICHITA STATE -3-110
[759] TOTAL o146½-110
(WICHITA STATE vrs WASHINGTON STAT)
[761] ALABAMA -2½-110
[761] TOTAL o143½-110
(ALABAMA vrs COLORADO)
[592] CONNECTICUT -800
[594] BAYLOR -140

I hit this I'll faint!

[GTforme]

WOW!

Wash St. was still pulling on their jerseys while Witchita St. was unlacing there game shoes.

(I think the two teams passed each other in the tunnel)

Wash St.'s Klay Thompson has averaged 27 points in the NIT... Tonight he got 6. Went 1 for 9 on 2's; 0 for 5 on 3's; and 4 for 4 from the stripe. You reckon he felt bad? I'm sure he does post game......

Over b4 it started..........