Well, I at least had the pace right. Those might be the best combined shooting percentages I have ever seen in a NCAA half.
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Big card tomorrow. Hopefully get it back then.
Updated Record: 149-109-5
NCAAB
1H: 28-21-1
2H: 83-57-3
NBA
1H: 12-11
2H: 18-15-1
FG: 8-5Comment -
2/8
1st Half: Old Dominion / William & Mary Over 56
1st Half: Southern Miss / UAB Over 55
1st Half: Rice / Houston Over 68
1st Half: LSU / Vanderbilt Over 62
1st Half: Milwaukee / Toronto Over 92
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bol 70Comment -
Added LSU/Vand 1HO.Comment -
Added Mil/Tor 1HOComment -
That should be it for today until 2H time.Comment -
2H: George Washington / Temple Over 71Comment -
There is a 10-20 minute delay on all the NCAA real-time box scores on all the sites tonight. Weird. So I guess no more NCAA 2H plays tonight unless this gets fixed.Comment -
cbssportsline.com
they have the scores as well.Comment -
2H: LA Clippers / Cleveland Under 96Comment -
it's on time tonight. .l noticed that earlier.. got you george wash over 71 .. . good work..Comment -
2H: San Antonio / Philadelphia Over 90Comment -
Done looking at plays for the night. 6-2 today.
Updated Record: 155-111-5
NCAAB
1H: 31-22-1
2H: 84-57-3
NBA
1H: 13-11
2H: 19-16-1
FG: 8-5Comment -
Great night! You really have it dialed in now.
I missed one of the losses for a change, so 6-1 for me. You had been 7-0 on the plays I missed over the last 2 weeks, so I'll take a little luck for a change.Comment -
great stuff man... since i started, bc of the large number of plays i have only been doing 1/2 of my normal bet amount for these plays (to keep my roll exposure down).. think I should continue with that or double my amounts to my normal size? I keep saying this pace will have to slow down but it hasnt! your the man 70k. Anyone have any thoughts on this?Comment -
I guess it all comes down to money management, both in individual bet size in proportion to the bankroll as well as in the amount of daily plays you typically make. If you can up the unit size to your normal amount and make it work money management wise, I say go for it. Or if upping the unit size exposes too much of your bankroll on a heavy betting day, you could always just compromise and lower the normal unit size to accompany the more action.Comment -
Yea, as of now i have just been betting to win .5% of my roll per play.. definitely can afford to up it, but would hate for the inevitable slow run to start the minute that i increase haha you seem dialed in right now so i think i might take the chance. Due to your amount of plays sometimes i wanted to limit exposure... but you seem legit buddy. Even a bad run at this point would just be losing house money.
Do you mind me asking where or how your came up with your system/model? or how long you have been using it? Im very impressed... from what ive seen, you have a great thing going. Have most years been as successful as this year and last yr? hitting consistent 60% is unreal, and you deserve all the credit in the world. BOL man and thanks for everything
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You are both much more experienced than me, but I've been experimenting with large volume betting using 2-3% of my BR on each play. As long as you are tailing good cappers and not spooking every time there is a losing skid it makes sense mathematically. Making lots of plays just puts the whole process in hyper drive. I'm following 5-6 different cappers who I feel are solid, and playing all their plays (trying to cherry pick is just silly). Each one has a different sport or angle. I can't benefit as much when 70 has a great run like this, but I'm also insulated if he has a bad night (someone else went 1-4 tonight, for example). The likely hood of having a really bad night when using plays from 6 guys all 55%+ is pretty low, and I've steadily ground upwards doing this. It does take a little faith to do it, esp when I had 32 plays in a day last week...result was +10% to BR however.
Regarding 70, I'd say he's one of the most solid guys around. Never seriously questioned himself when he hit that cold streak, which speaks volumes. Too many guys get all fired up when they win, then go to pieces or just disappear when they lose.
Let's say 70 is 0-0 starting today. What are the chances that he is 57-62% from now to the end of the season? I'd say pretty damn good. For this reason, I'd give him the max bet your BR will allow regardless of how many plays he makes. The dude knows his shit. Losing runs will happen, but I think (hope) he's had his nasty stretch already.
Just my 2 cents.
Keep it rolling 70!Comment -
I will reply to this tomorrow. It's late.Yea, as of now i have just been betting to win .5% of my roll per play.. definitely can afford to up it, but would hate for the inevitable slow run to start the minute that i increase haha you seem dialed in right now so i think i might take the chance. Due to your amount of plays sometimes i wanted to limit exposure... but you seem legit buddy. Even a bad run at this point would just be losing house money.
Do you mind me asking where or how your came up with your system/model? or how long you have been using it? Im very impressed... from what ive seen, you have a great thing going. Have most years been as successful as this year and last yr? hitting consistent 60% is unreal, and you deserve all the credit in the world. BOL man and thanks for everythingComment -
My guess is your model for 2nd half is follow the 1st h trend eg if first half is under then keep going the under in 2 nd h. Obviously a lot more complex than this but I think your 2n h plays are like this
Let's just hope we do get overrun with ferals.
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2/9
1st Half: Wofford / Georgia Southern Under 58.5
1st Half: Western Kentucky / Mid Tenn St. Over 61Comment -
Looks like DSI are moving their 1H lines a full point now after I make my wager, instead of the usual 1/2 point.Comment -
I don't necessarily like the word "system" for these plays. "Angle" might be a better word. While my capping is mathematical based and does start in a conceptual model, it still ends up coming down to a series of judgement calls on my part, nothing really is black and white about it. My capping methods for this stuff is 100% original, doubt there is anyone else who caps games like I do. I approach capping as a creative process.
Do you mind me asking where or how your came up with your system/model? or how long you have been using it? Im very impressed... from what ive seen, you have a great thing going. Have most years been as successful as this year and last yr? hitting consistent 60% is unreal, and you deserve all the credit in the world. BOL man and thanks for everything
Years ago, I spent a lot of time experimenting with lots of different angles, systems, trends, ect...Back-testing and/or forward-testing every idea my mind could come up with. I would end up with 50 failed experiments for every successful one. The basketball totals are where I felt I found my biggest edge, which is where I have focused most of my capping on. This is my third year doing hoops totals, started with just NBA full game totals a few years ago, and it has evolved from there, I have made countless tweaks on the go and are still making slight adjustments as I see fit, I branched off and added NBA 1st halves last year, this is my first year with NCAA 1st halves, got into capping 2nd halves (unrelated to the other stuff) last year as well. I have only been gambling seriously for the past 2-3 years.
I my opinion, the key to finding successful angles in gambling comes down to learning how to read and analyze the post game numbers. And once you have something that looks like it has potential, you can use that same concept of reading the numbers during it's testing phase to make the necessary tweaks and adjustments to improve it, learn from your mistakes, and essentially make your capping "smarter" through repetition. After every play I make, I try to analyze the box score to figure out if it was a good or bad pick, regardless of how many points it won or lost by. All the math nerds in the think tank are always preaching nothing is legit until you have x amount of plays as a sample size, or until you back-test your system back to 1994, blah blah blah. That is completely ignorant in my opinion, if you learn how to read the numbers you can tell if you have garbage or something worth pursuing over a very small sample size. I also see a lot of people saying stuff like "even though it lost by x points, I still beat the closing line by x amount of points, so it was a good play". I disagree. Beating the closer is certainly something every capper should thrive for and will likely lead to success if you can do it on a regular basis, but just because you beat the closer doesn't make it a good play. Figuring out why it lost by x points in hindsight will determine whether or not it was a good pick. If you are simply calling it a good/bad play based on the number you got vs. the closer, I don't see your capping evolving into something better over time.Comment -
you guys are lucky. My local doesn't have ovr/undr lines posted until 2hours before the game. Drives me crazy. Hanst effected me negative yet though..Comment -
70kg-
Looks like you're back on a roll.
Do you know if your 1H plays are
better in the NBA or NCAA??
Good Luck
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I am sure DSI will start air moving the lines when I hit "confirm" soon enough. They seem to do that on occasion to me already. I am looking forward to getting rid of DSI for good as soon as this hoops season is over. Within the past couple months, they have removed my loyalty points, limited me, put me on a 10-15 second delay on 2nd half bets which often leads to losing a 0.5 - 1 point of value, occasionally air moving lines when I hit submit instead of just moving the it afterwards (seems to be certain times of the day, like if I try to bet it early), ect... And I haven't even made it to 10k profit at that specific book yet. Who knows what kind of BS I will have to go through when I make my next withdrawal. I haven't requested a withdrawal since last summer. I think I actually recommended this book to someone via PM a few months ago. well, whoever that was, I retract that recommendation. Terrible book if you plan on winning.
I don't know. I was around 63% on NBA 1st halves last season, 2 games over .500 so far this year. This is my first season with NCAA 1st halves and the record is posted. That is all I can tell you.Comment -
How many units are you up so far this season 70kg? Just started tailing, liking what I'm seeing--keep up the good work!
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Western Kentucky over is hard to pull the trigger on. They don't score much against each other going under 13 of the last 16 but western has had some overs. I just hope middle tenn good defense takes a break 1h I guess.Comment -
another great year for you
looks like you're approx 60% through 500 plays or so going back to last year, amazing
will watch this thread now with all the focus to hoops, thanksComment -
2H: Appalachian St. / Furman Over 70Comment
