70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...

southpaw74 · 01-29-12, 06:15 PM

I guess my bitching helped

good call 70kg! Thanks

70kgman · 01-29-12, 06:17 PM

Wow. It still won by 4 points even with 51.9% shooting and good 3 point shooting in the 2nd half.

southpaw74 · 01-29-12, 06:21 PM

What do you think about the Dallas over 94.5? Should we still go for it?

70kgman · 01-29-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

What do you think about the Dallas over 94.5? Should we still go for it?

Don't really understand the line movement on the total dropping a couple points since this afternoon. But I guess line movement isn't always right. I still like it to hit based on the numbers. we'll see.

southpaw74 · 01-29-12, 07:21 PM

Can we get overtime on a first half play?

spurs forgot how to shoot...

70kgman · 01-29-12, 07:42 PM

I loved the pace of that 1st half too. What a waste. Spurs shot 35%, were 8-15 on free throws, and both teams combined to shoot 3-16 on 3-pointers. Would of easily reached triple digits with even average shooting. Hell, it would of won with even average free throw shooting alone.

southpaw74 · 01-29-12, 07:43 PM

I agree...it's a shame.

70kgman · 01-29-12, 09:13 PM

Finished 3-1 on the day.

Updated Record: 119-96-4

NCAAB
1H: 17-15-1
2H: 73-53-2

NBA
1H: 8-10
2H: 15-14-1
FG: 6-4

70kgman · 01-30-12, 11:47 AM

1/30

San Antonio / Memphis Under 189.5

70kgman · 01-30-12, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Pinny was juicing the shit out of the under but never moved off their original line (72.5 when most books dropped to 72, 71.5 or even 71). They do that a lot, and amazingly, are almost always right. How do they know? Did the same thing with UCSB/LBSU last night.

I think that is just a busted conspiracy theory. Pinnacle never comes off their opening 2nd half numbers. I remember reading the lines getting juiced is automated based on the money coming on on them, but the lines would need to be manually adjusted to another number, and Pinnacle just don't bother doing that on 2nd half lines with a small time window of availability. So you will occasionally see some Pinnacle 2H lines juiced up to -130 or whatever. Plus, the play that was referenced ended up winning despite that high scoring first 10 minutes of the half.

No coincidences · 01-30-12, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

I think that is just a busted conspiracy theory. Pinnacle never comes off their opening 2nd half numbers. I remember reading the lines getting juiced is automated based on the money coming on on them, but the lines would need to be manually adjusted to another number, and Pinnacle just don't bother doing that on 2nd half lines with a small time window of availability. So you will occasionally see some Pinnacle 2H lines juiced up to -130 or whatever. Plus, the play that was referenced ended up winning despite that high scoring first 10 minutes of the half.

Thanks for the response. Pinny does move their 2H numbers, but I don't know if I could qualify it by saying they do it "often" vs. just upping the juice. I'll keep an eye on it and get back to you. Good luck tonight; like that play.

70kgman · 01-30-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Thanks for the response. Pinny does move their 2H numbers, but I don't know if I could qualify it by saying they do it "often" vs. just upping the juice. I'll keep an eye on it and get back to you. Good luck tonight; like that play.

On second thought, looking through the Pinnacle 2H line histories, it appears like it is common practice for them to just juice a number up to -125 before changing numbers. Seemed pretty consistent on the few handfuls of examples I looked at. Every line that moved reached -125 (or very close to) on the previous number first. That Iona 2H from yesterday just peaked at 72.5 (-125), so I don't think I would look at it as anything more than that.

No coincidences · 01-30-12, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

On second thought, looking through the Pinnacle 2H line histories, it appears like it is common practice for them to just juice a number up to -125 before changing numbers. Seemed pretty consistent on the few handfuls of examples I looked at. Every line that moved reached -125 (or very close to) on the previous number first. That Iona 2H from yesterday just peaked at 72.5 (-125), so I don't think I would look at it as anything more than that.

70kgman · 01-30-12, 07:56 PM

2H: Morgan St. / Hampton Over 68

dlunc3 · 01-30-12, 09:59 PM

heating up... 5-1 last six

great stuff man

dume walker · 01-30-12, 10:21 PM

2 nice winners tonight. Thanks, K Man!

70kgman · 01-30-12, 11:45 PM

Updated Record: 121-96-4

NCAAB
1H: 17-15-1
2H: 74-53-2

NBA
1H: 8-10
2H: 15-14-1
FG: 7-4

Cutler'sThumb · 01-31-12, 12:05 AM

70kgman · 01-31-12, 01:42 PM

1/31

1st Half: Denver / Memphis Under 101

70kgman · 01-31-12, 02:33 PM

Might be able to get a better number if you wait a little longer. if you haven't put it in already. Weird line movement going on...201 up to 203, down to 200 with the under juiced heavy, now back up to 202 and rising.

edit: Nevermind, now back down to 200 an hour later.

dlunc3 · 01-31-12, 11:32 PM

winner

70kgman · 01-31-12, 11:36 PM

Updated Record: 122-96-4

NCAAB
1H: 17-15-1
2H: 74-53-2

NBA
1H: 9-10
2H: 15-14-1
FG: 7-4

Cutler'sThumb · 02-01-12, 01:30 AM

Looks like you might be hitting your stride.

70kgman · 02-01-12, 12:29 PM

2/1

Houston / San Antonio Under 196

1st Half: Boston / Toronto Under 86

1st Half: New Jersey / Detroit Under 90.5

1st Half: Xavier / George Washington Over 61

1st Half: George Mason / Delaware Under 65.5

1st Half: Ohio / Northern Illinois Over 58.5

1st Half: Boise St. / San Diego St. Under 62

Cutler'sThumb · 02-01-12, 02:19 PM

Big night tonight. I think it's time for one of these big volume days to go your way heavy.
Lets' get it!

freshguy222 · 02-01-12, 02:19 PM

wow thats a lot of plays. do you have a good feeling about the card? i usually dont like it when you have that many plays, but gl tonight!

70kgman · 02-01-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

wow thats a lot of plays. do you have a good feeling about the card? i usually dont like it when you have that many plays, but gl tonight!

It's just a big card in both NCAA and NBA today. I wouldn't play anything I didn't think I had a good size edge on. I got impatient and didn't do a very good job today locking in plays at the right time and got a few bad numbers as a result, but still feel pretty good about the card overall.

I may of passed on the two NBA 1st half plays earlier in the year because the 1st half lines are set under 50% of the game total (or were when I locked them in), but I keep leaving easy 1st half winners on the table left and right by voiding similar plays, so I did loosen my 1st half parameters on those two a bit. Ideally I would of preferred them a 1.5 - 2 points higher.

70kgman · 02-01-12, 07:18 PM

2H: Indiana / Michigan Under 70.5

70kgman · 02-01-12, 07:52 PM

2H: Eastern Michigan / Miami OH Under 59.5

Cutler'sThumb · 02-01-12, 08:46 PM

Looking like a 4-0 start.

70kgman · 02-01-12, 08:52 PM

2H: NC State / Boston College Under 71.5

southpaw74 · 02-01-12, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Looking like a 4-0 start.

What? Celtics and northern Illinois lost already.

tcarn01 · 02-01-12, 08:56 PM

fukcing overtime...wtf....argggg... man we had it in the miami (oh) game..they let em come back...

nice work though...

tcarn01 · 02-01-12, 08:58 PM

southpaw..we don't count the ones that lose

..

70kgman.. overall you are pretty damn good.this is definitly fun to watch each half except for about having a heart attack now 2x a game instead of just at the end.

70kgman · 02-01-12, 09:02 PM

A great day just turned into a mediocre day that could eventually turn out to be a losing day because of that OT. Pathetic blowing a 9 point lead with just over 2 minutes left.