EP36's Dance Card

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 03-15-11, 01:26 PM

Like both those plays and good write-up on both.

Good luck

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-11, 01:44 PM

Thanks. You gotta pick your spots with road teams, especially the NIT where I think the home team has won 26/32 in the past two years in the 1st rounds. The 4/5 games though have traditionally been the closer games in the 1st round, so taking the points is a good strategy to me.

**Rick22** · 03-15-11, 03:13 PM

Thanks EP - your write ups are always good and full of useful information. Best of Luck.

**MexicanStallion** · 03-15-11, 03:23 PM

Good luck EP. Will be looking forward to seeing your plays. I might consider a thread too for fun.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-11, 03:35 PM

Sweet. I know many would look Mex.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-11, 09:49 PM

BIG DANCE: 0-0 [+0.00]
LITTLE DANCES: 0-2 [-2.05]

Not a great start. Hofstra played close for most of the game, but blew it in the 2nd half. UTEP really just played like crap and still had chances if they would have made some shots.

CIT: PORTLAND-HAWAII OVER 137.5 [-107]
Hawaii turned into a big OVERs team down the stretch with nine of their last ten going that way. Hawaii's offense can take plenty of credit as they hit for 70 or more in eight of those games. Portland has been a steady scoring club for most of the year as they hit 64 or higher in eleven straight. The Pilots can be deadly from three, while Hawaii struggled in their last five to stop teams from deep - allowing 40% shooting from distance.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 08:06 AM

Big Dance: 0-0 [+0.00]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-2 [-1.05]

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 12:55 PM

My convoluted take on my two regions in the NCAAs.

SOUTHWEST REGION PREVIEW

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville
Dangerous Double Digits: Richmond, Morehead State
Darkhorse Watch: Georgetown, Richmond, USC

Kansas to me is the most talented team in the country when all cogs are firing. That has happened in 32 of 34 games this season and they come in having dismantled Texas in the Big 12 Championship. This is a team with experience at all positions and quality depth with their younger players. Solid both inside & out, they are tough to shut down as shown by shooting 52% from the field this season. Taylor's suspension at the end of the year could win up being the best thing that happened to KU. He has returned looking hungry and it also got Elijah Johnson valuable experience as the PG. The Morris twins are forces in the post & doubley dangerous with their ability to step out and knock down jumpers. Robinson is a quality big who comes on from the bench. Morningstar & Reed are three point assasins w/experience in big games who must be accounted for at all times. The one Achilles heel for this team could be free throw shooting. They shot 68% on the season which ranks in the bottom half of D1. The guards are pretty solid from the line, but both the twins are at 68% and Robinson is very poor at 50%. That could be a difference somewhere in a tight game.

Notre Dame may not have the balance offensively of KU, but their ability to shoot from outside make them just as dangerous. The versatility of their forwards, Abromaitis & Scott, who can score from the perimeter make them a tough match-up. Big East Player of the Year Ben Hansbrough is capable of carrying the load in any game, but as shown against Louisville - has the ability to be rattled into taking questionable shots. He will be a key for this club to make a deep run. He must play under control which he has for the most part. The other big thing for the Irish is their mental strength in this setting. Many of these same players were bounced in the 1st round last year by a gritty Old Dominion club. Does that fire them up to make a run or is it a mental block? Rebounding will be the key for this team. They don't have superior size inside, but they do have guys who can rebound. Teams with size though could give them some troubles there.

Purdue has been a consistently productive team all year, made even more impressive considering the injury to Hummel before the season began. Purdue's guard rotation is solid, headlined by E'twuan Moore. When Moore is hitting his shots, the Boilers are very difficult to stop. Center JaJuan Johnson is a catalyst for this team on both sides of the ball. He can score inside and out and his athletic ability will give slower bigs lots of problems. Defensively, he can erase shots with the best of them. Rebounding is going to be an issue for this team due to a relative lack of size outside of Johnson. That may not show in the early rounds, but in looking down the road it's something to watch. Lewis Jackson will need to come up with some big games as the 3rd scoring option for this team.

Louisville may lack the star power of the top three seeds, but they are a solid club whose zone defense looks could give some of these teams problems. The key though for Louisville will be to keep their perimeter-oriented players hot. Knowles is a guard who can single-handedly carry this club when his outside shot is falling with consistency. Siva showed good penetration skills all season with the ability to find the open shooters, Knowles and Kurich. The X-factors for Louisville though could turn out to be their bigs, Terrence Jennings & Stephan van Treese. Both are 6'9" and will need to rebound for this team to be successful. When Louisville rebounds the ball and makes shots, they are damn tough to beat.

Top Four Analysis

All four of the top seeds in this region have had solid guard play for most of the year. From a consistency and experience standpoint, I think KU has the edge over a Notre Dame or Purdue. The frontcourts of these four squads could be where we see the separation. KU again is superior with the Morrises and Robinson and I think their versatility matches well with the versatility of Notre Dame's "bigs" and Johnson from Purdue. Whereas those players normally have a versatility edge against their opponents, KU has the horses to keep up with them and a bit more bulk as well with the Morrises in the post.

From a draw standpoint, Kansas has the easiest path to stay intact until the 2nd week. Louisville should be able to grind past Morehead, but that won't be easy. Their 2nd round match against Vanderbilt or Richmond may be tough as well. Purdue likely has Georgetown, USC or VCU in the 2nd round. USC could give them a game with their dominant inside force. Notre Dame will have to be weary of either Texas A&M or Florida State and their solid half court defenses in the 2nd round.

Of the four seeds here, I could see all four getting through to the 2nd week if they play well - but I think that at least one will falter with some tough match-ups in the 2nd round. Louisville or Purdue the likely victim.

Darkhorse Watch

GEORGETOWN
This is an intriguing team that no one is really talking about. Pre-season they were tapped as one of the contenders in the Big East. They had some dips in Big East play where they lost four of their first five, but then recovered by winning right straight. The win streak including wins over Villanova - before they imploded - and Syracuse on the road + a home win vs. Louisville. Then another dip at the end of the season when PG Chris Wright got hurt. The good news for the Hoyas, Wright is cleared to return and that brings senior leadership back to this team along with Austin Freeman. Toss in Jason Clark and the Hoyas have a solid group of guards with experience. The Hoyas should be hungry after last year's embarassing loss to Ohio in the opening round. If Wright is 100% and the guards knock down shots, Georgetown matches up well with the teams in its portion of the bracket and could make the Regional Final if all cylinders click.

Double Digit Danger

RICHMOND
The Spiders will get lots of love as a #12 capable of upsetting a #5 in Vanderbilt. Rightfully so. Richmond is coached by a former Princeton player, so they run an efficient cutting scheme on offense that milks the shot clock and produces efficient and clean 3 point looks. They aren't "big" up front, but their forwards are versatile enough to cause defenders to match up outside. Forward Justin Harper is one to watch here. He can play inside & out. Richmond's slow tempo could frustrate a Vandy team that likes to push it.

USC
The Trojans have to work past a play-in game, but have knocked off some impressive teams. USC has the super sized frontcourt of Stepheson & Vucevic which could give smaller teams nightmares. Big thing for the Trojans will be their guard play.

MOREHEAD STATE
Rick Pitino at least has seen Morehead before in this setting as Louisville beat them two years ago in the NCAAs. Morehead is led by the senior duo of G Demonte Harper and bowling ball F Kenneth Faried. Faried is what should scare Pitino whose team is a bit thin up front. Faried can dominate, no doubt. He had 20 pts. & 18 boards against Florida in a five point Morehead loss this season. Louisville predicates its attack on knocking down threes and pressure defense along with some zone looks. If their shots don't fall and Faried keeps out of foul trouble, this could be scary.

Bracket Breakdown

I like Kansas to come out of this region. I think their combination of size and solid guard play trumps the teams in this region. If I had to pick a team most likely to beat them, it'd be Notre Dame simply because if their shooters are on and getting open looks - they can beat anyone. Upset alert early as I like #12 Richmond and #10 Florida State to get wins here. I think at least one of these double digit seeds will be in the Sweet 16: USC, Richmond or Morehead State.

WEST REGION PREVIEW

Top Four Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, UConn, Texas
Dangerous Double Digits: Oakland, Penn State
Sleepers: Arizona, Cincinnati

Duke is here to defend their title and they looked very impressive on Sunday to finish the ACC tournament with a dominant win over North Carolina. The health scare for Nolan Smith turned out to be nothing and that is a good thing for Duke which needs him if they are to make another run. The big news for the Blue Devils is that they may get super frosh Kyrie Irving back for the second week of the tournament. That will add depth and a speed element that teams have not seen since early in the year. Outside of that, Duke has the experience and depth to make a serious run at back-2-back titles. To do so though, they will need Kyle Singler to rediscover his shooting touch which has been missing in action lately. Without his scoring, Seth Curry has stepped is game up and shown tremendous scoring ability which shows how dangerous this team can be if Smith, Singler & Curry are all firing. It's a similar make-up to last year's team with Scheyer instead of Curry. But this Duke team has more size up front with the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly all playing solid minutes. If Irving returns, Duke goes from Final Four contender to National Title contender instantly.

San Diego State is a big unknown to many having played in the Mountain West, but this team can ball. The Aztecs have a versatile & athletic frontcourt that can pose match-up problems. Senior Billy White is a solid defender capable of sinking jumpers. Malcom Thomas is their best low post threat while Kawhi Leonard is a monster rebounder with the ability to defend almost any position. The big question is can San Diego State hit enough from the perimeter to win? Their starting guards are not the most consistent shooters. How they go likely determines San Diego State's progress in the tournament. Their frontcourt likely matches up well enough to get this team to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

UConn has your attention after their Big East title run. Particularly impressive was the play of the Huskies youngsters. G Jeremy Lamb shows no fear and a good scoring touch along with fellow frosh Shabazz Napier. Listen, Kemba Walker is going to get his points. It's one the complementary players to do enough to supplment him for UConn to win. The X-factor for UConn will be rebounding. Despite good size, UConn has been outworked on the boards from time-to-time and it's usually a telling sign in their losses. That could be a crucial problem as early as the Sweet 16 against a good rebounding San Diego State team. Maybe even Cincinnati if they meet in the 2nd round.

Texas is an enigma. Once fancied as a National Championship contender, the Longhorns have really struggled for consistency in the last month J'Covan Brown is a threat from outside, but is inconsistent. Tristan Thompson provides needed beef and defense inside along with Gary Johnson. They can be physical, but none of the teams in this bracket is going to feel overwhelmed. Jordan Hamilton is their go-to-guy, but as with many of his teammates - he seems to get rattled if things don't go his way. When they do, he can dominate. When they don't - deer in the headlights and UT is toast. He must be their leader and start fast. A bugaboo for this club will be free throws. They were last in the Big 12. I think teams with pace like Oakland can give this club trouble. Texas is better served in a half court setting where its defense can grind games out. Texas looks to be in the wrong bracket to see much of that early on.

Top Four Analysis

I think Duke is a great chance to be in the Regional Final & San Diego State based on draw lines up well. I think Texas is the most likely seed to fail here. Bad match-ups for the Horns and they are inconsistent. UConn is the wildcard in this region. If they can bounce back from a heavy workload in the Big East conference tournament, do not be surprised if Kemba Walker has them playing Duke for a trip to the Final Four.

Darkhorse Watch

ARIZONA
I have to admit that this looks like a fairly chalky region as far as the team to advance to the Final Four, but this Arizona club is intriguing. They shoot the three well and they have a NBA talent in Derrick Williams. Williams will draw the attention of opposing defenses, which will leave the Cats shooters opportunities. Mayes, Parrom, Fogg & Horne will be challenged to beat teams by shooting from outside. Ultimately if Arizona is to emerge as a darkhorse, they would have to beat Duke. Williams might have space to operate against the Blue Devils slightly slower bigs in the Plumlees or size on Singler in the post.

CINCINNATI
The Bearkats look boom or bust to me in this draw. They have a tough Missouri team first-up, but their defensive style should further frustrate a cold shooting Missouri team. That could lead to a match-up with Big East brother UConn. Cincy's guards Dixon & Wright will be keys. If they can score consistently, Cincy is a dangerous team. Yancy Gates has been a force inside and will need to be for any chance the Bearkats might have.

Double Digit Danger

OAKLAND
This is an experienced team with great size inside and shooters to spare. Benson on the low-post will be a tough match for any big man in this region. Texas' Tristan Thompson may be taken to school by the senior. Reggie Hamilton is a dangerous shooter/scorer at just 5'11". There is a key for Oakland and it is simply tempo. They want to play fast. They average in the 80s and will have a chance to win any time they can keep the tempo up. Defense is something they don't particularly preach as they take a proto-typical "out score" the other team approach. That could be dangerous for an inconsistent Texas team and match-up wise, they could give Arizona some problems too if they're in that position.

PENN STATE
The gritty, slow style of Penn State could be a nightmare for some teams in this tournament. The Nittany Lions showed plenty tough and ugly in the Big Ten tournament. Senior Talor Battle finally gets a chance to play in the NCAAs and his shooting could well be the factor that keeps Penn State afloat or not. Jeff Brooks is a lengthy forward who is the 2nd leading scorer for this team. His versatilty can take opposing players away from the bucket. The draw is intriguing for Penn State because they don't come up against a team that will try to run them off the court early in Temple or San Diego State. It's a long shot for them to continue to keep winning ugly, but it's also a possibility if their defense clamps down & Battle hits some shots.

Bracket Breakdown

This is Duke's region to take. With Irving likely back, the Blue Devils are just that much stronger. Their experience is a huge plus here and a nice draw to boot. UConn will be the other team to watch. If the Huskies are not worn down from the Big East tournament, you can't say Kemba walker isn't capable of leading this team to the Final Four. San Diego State is a nice story and I won't be shocked to see them in the Regional Final simply because this is a nice draw for them. Texas is a wildcard at the 4th seed, but I see too many inconsistencies for the Horns to make a deep run. Upset alert definitely with #13 Oakland very capable of beating Texas. Missouri seems to be a popular pick by others I have seen, but the Tigers really have struggled offensively and that means less opportunity to press. They COULD steal a win against Cincinnati because the Bearkats guards aren't especially solid in all facets, but I'd be surprised to see Mizzou win more than one. This bracket may be fairly form fitting into the 2nd weekend with seeding, although Oakland is that one team I think could break up the party.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 02:42 PM

NCAA SOUTHWEST: USC-VCU OVER 127.5 [-105]
Contrasting styles here as USC prefers a half court grinding style, while VCU would like to up the tempo and use full-court pressure to do so. Vucevic & Stepheson will be a load for VCU to handle inside and they should dominate the rebounding battle against a poor reboundning squad. VCU carried themselves through to the Colonial title game with hot three point shooting and I expect they will toss up plenty of those. VCU would do well to have its players aggressively try to take it to the basket as well to open up for more loose three point opps & also get to the line more. They nailed 21 threes in the last two games against the solid defense of Old Dominion & George Mason. VCU's defense was a bit suspect itself, giving up 47% shooting in their last five & 45% on the season. If VCU over commits to stopping the Trojans interior players, USC has capable shooters in guards Fontan, Jones & Smith who can get hot from three. Vucevic also likes to step out around the arc as well. Both teams were pretty consistent scoring away from home in the upper 60s, while USC's one knock defensively was that at times - they struggled to stop opponents on the road. If Vucevic is active, he should get some foul shots too. Stepheson unfortunately is a mug from the line. While USC is a big UNDERs team at home, they were about 50-50 O/U on the road.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 04:02 PM

CIT: TENNESSEE TECH +7.5 [-105]
Albeit in a weaker Ohio Valley, Tech was 13-1 ATS on the road this season. They face Western Michigan in a battle of two good offensive teams. Tech shot the ball better at 46% compared to 43% for WMU. They were even more impressive over their last five at 49% from the floor. Kevin Murphy leads them at 16.6 ppg and hit for 30 against a stout Morehead team in the OVC tournament. Jud Dillard averages double figures and will be the one to watch inside. WMU counters with their own inside-outside combo in Whitfield & Ward. Ward is dangerous from the oustide, shooting 39% from beyond the arc. WMU was just 4-8-2 ATS at home and as a favorite of 7 points or more, just 1-4. Tech covered their last two as eight & nine point dogs in the OVC tournament.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 08:22 PM

BIG DANCE: 0-0 [+0.00]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

That sucked. Tech loses by 8 and missed 18 free throws. Western Michigan was just as bad, but they made two FTs at the end to make it eight points. Blah.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 08:51 PM

LoL@USC & VCU. What a mess of a start. 3-2 after 5:00? Fukk me. Bye bye over chances. Make a fukkin shot you shmucks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 11:17 PM

MARCH 17th

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

LOUISVILLE-MOREHEAD STATE UNDER 131.5 [-105]
An interesting 4-13 here as Morehead State has some talented players, especially low post beast Kenny Faried who could give the undersized Cardinals fits. From a defensive standpoint, these are two quality clubs. Morehead showed well against both Florida & Ohio State, holding the Gators to 61 and Ohio State to 64. Florida shot just 39% and Ohio State shot 53%, but was held in check from deep at 6/17. That will be the charge for the Eagles against Louisville's four-pronged guard attack that loves the three ball. If they defend the arc well, they can rebound and slow the tempo. Faried figures to see plenty of looks in the post, foul trouble is his main poison. If he stays on the floor, he chould really do work on Louisville. Demonte Harper will be the other key for Morehead as the senior floor leader will be expected to avoid turnovers against the Cards pressure D. Problem is that Harper averaged almost four turnovers per game and had less than a 1:1 ration for turnovers to assists. Morehead shot poorly against both Florida & Ohio State and the zone looks Louisville gives them will put the onus on the Eagles to make some jumpers. Neither team is particularly good at the FT line which could help here. Louisville averaged 75 ppg, but has not always done well in a half court tempo. That is Morehead's best chance to stick with the Cards and I expect their coach to try and control the tempo the best they can to avoid speeding up the game where Louisville can be damn deadly.

RICHMOND +3 [-108]
Really fun 5-12 match-up here with Vanderbilt & Richmond. Let me start first off by saying that I think Richmond can win this one straight up, but I am going to start a little conservative here as Vandy is very talented and take the points. Vandy wants to play fast, whereas Richmond runs a Princeton-style slow attack that milks the shot clock and finds openings in the defense. The Spiders are one of the better 3 point shooting teams at around 40%. Justin Harper is the one to watch for Richmond. He's a forward with the ability to score in the paint and outside the arc. For Vandy, they need tempo. They have lost four of the five games where they have scored in the 60s or less. That will be a key number to watch. Richmond has held opponents into the 60s or less in 24 of 34. They come in hot as well with seven straight wins and wins in 11 of 12. If the Spiders control tempo, can keep Vandy from dominating the offensive boards and make some big shots - expect them to be in this until the end.

WEST REGIONAL

PENN STATE +132
The Nittany Lions have peaked at the right time with a nice showing in the Big Ten tournament that earned them a birth in the Big Dance. They face Temple who is hoping to get back a key cog in Scootie Randall. He is expected to play after missing a month with a foot injury and would give a short rotation some depth. This looks like a pretty even match-up, but I think Penn State's grind it out style may frustrate Temple which has looked its best when it has played quicker despite its short bench. Both teams shot the three well down the stretch with Penn State hitting 37% and Temple 40% in their last five, but it was Penn State with the better defending as they held opponents to just 40% from the floor and held seven of their last ten opponents to 63 points or less. Senior Talor Battle is the one to watch for Penn State as he finally gets his shot to shine. Penn State must start well as this team is not built well to rally from big deficits. Also watch the rebounding battle, State needs to keep it close in that category.

SAN DIEGO STATE-NORTHERN COLORADO OVER 130 [-105]
I think this is a good number to take advantage of in this situation. San Diego State gets a wrap as a low scoring team, but this team does not mind running and is very efficient on offense in terms of points per possession. Their frontline should do well against a Northern Colorado squad who has some decent players in the frontcourt, but they may have issues with the athleticism of Leonard, Thomas & White. Northern Colorado's two shots at NCAA tournament teams resulted in lots of points for the opposition with Arizona scoring 93 and Illinoois 86. The good news is NCU scored over 70 in both of those games. The Bears are a team that can shoot well from outside, so the Aztecs will need to defend - but the three ball could help gets this over in garbage time. NCU is a very good FT shooting team if they can get to the line. 12 of their 18 road games went OVERs, while SDST split their 18 road tilts at 9-9 for O/U.

**Have two night session games in the West w/ UConn-Bucknell & Cincinnati/Missouri that I will add tomorrow. Good luck today. Happy Shamrock Day. Maybe I can get my ass in gear!**

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-11, 11:41 PM

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL FUTURE

KANSAS TO WIN REGION [+135]
As outlined in my preview, this is the best team in the region and in my mind, the best team all-around if they bring the effort every game. Their inside-outside play will be too much for most.

EXACT CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH-UPS

KANSAS v. DUKE +1190
KANSAS v. OHIO STATE +1190
OHIO STATE v. PITTSBURGH +1675

All these will be for .33 units each.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-11, 09:42 AM

WEST REGIONAL

UCONN -10 [-104]
Connecticut draws Bucknell to open. The big question for the Huskies is where they are at after their dramatic five game run to the Big East tournament title? They've had four full days of rest, so I don't think physical fatigue is that big a factor. What could be is their mentality coming in. This won't be billed as a big game like in the Big East, so UConn has to provide their own energy early and get into this one. If they don't, Bucknell has the ability to keep this interesting due to their outstanding three point shooting. The Bison nailed 40% from beyond the arc this year. UConn has been pretty solid defending the perimeter, but they will need to find two players in particular on Bucknell, Mike Muscala & Bryson Johnson. Muscala is a wide body who needs to be contained on the boards, while Johnson can light it up from deep. Oriakhi will likely be a key in the battle against Muscala. For UConn, Kemba Walker should make his impression on this game early. Bucknell has not seen anyone who can dominate a game like Kemba can. Then the freshman need to keep their solid play with Lamb & Napier contributing. Bucknell played both Marquette & Villanova to start the season. They lost by double digits in both. UConn is 13-5 ATS away from home this season.

CINCINNATI -1 [-105]
The Bearkats draw Missouri in a 6-11 match-up. Missouri at one time this season looked like a team that could cause lots of problems come this time of year. Now though, this team looks a mess. The Tigers lost four of their last five to end the year and showed problems scoring the basketball consistently against good defenses. They will see that in a gritty Cincinnati team tonight. Cincy has allowed just 59 ppg over the course of the season on 41% shooting. Their road defense has been just as consistent. Mizzou meanwhile has been porous on the road, allowing 81 ppg on 49% shooting. The Bearkats shot well down the stretch and will need to do two things well. Take care of the ball & rebound. Their guards, Dion Dixon & Cashmere Wright, must handle Mizzou's pressure and also look for Yancy Gates in the post to be a big force. If Cincy's guards play well, they will be difficult to beat.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-11, 03:13 PM

BIG DANCE: 1-2 [-1.05]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

Split the 1st two, Temple won on a crappy buzzer beater type shot off of good Penn State defense. Under hit. Would like to clean up these two afternoon ones to get rolling some.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-11, 03:20 PM

Nix that, still booked at Over 130. I thought about this all night & day and I cannot avoid doing something dumb here. This Over is my favorite play of the ones I am playing today and I really think it's set too low. Making it a two unit play.

Regret comes later.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-11, 04:31 PM

Doesn't look like Lady Luck is gonna find me today. Going double the usual wager size as usual looks like a bad idea. First five minutes of that game were solid with 21 points and then neither team could hit shit. Oh well, gotta be stupid every once in a while.

Maybe at least Richmond can cover.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-11, 05:49 PM

BIG DANCE: 2-3 [-2.10]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

Lookin' good!

No regrets really on taking my one double sized bet. San Diego State shot like shit today and missed at least ten point blank shots that would have probably made the over very possible.

**MexicanStallion** · 03-17-11, 05:54 PM

Glad to see we cashed on Richmond together. A little surprised you didn't go with Morehead State, because you had a nice little write up with them earlier.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 08:16 AM

BIG DANCE: 4-3 [-0.10]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

I actually thought that number was going to be close to correct Mex. Felt more comfortable with the under. Good day overall yesterday even though the profits didn't come due to my stupid double sized wager. I'll take 4-2 any day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 09:44 AM

WEST REGIONAL

OAKLAND +10.5 [-103]
This is a gifted offensive squad in Oakland that has the pieces to challenge an inconsistent Texas squad. In watching this Texas team down the stretch, they allowed too many teams to hang around instead of putting them away. That's dangerous against this Oakland team. The Golden Grizz averaged 85 ppg during the regular season on 49% shooting. They like to play fast and need that tempo to have a chance today. They have a superb inside-outside combo in big man Keith Benson & guard Reggie Hamilton. In Texas, they face a stiff defense, but one that has scuffled a little down the stretch. UT allowed 45% shooting in their last five after allowing under 40% on the season. The thing that I think could hurt the Horns the most today is their inconsistent offense. Jordan Hamilton is a stud, but where does the secondary scoring come from? J-Covan Brown can be deadly from the perimeter, but for whatever reason, Rick Barnes has been reluctant to give him more minutes. Post presence Tristan Thompson can also add in the scoring department, but Texas doesn't always feed their big man. On top of these inconsistencies is poor free throw shooting. Texas was the worst FT shooting team in the Big 12. Oakland should not be overwhelmed here. They played last year against Pitt in the 1st round and played a rigorous non-conference schedule this year that included a win over Tennessee and tight games against Illinois & Michigan State. Oakland is also a solid rebounding club which will help today. UT is ranked 14th in rebounding margin while Oakland is not far behind at 22nd. Rebounding will be a key stat today as Oakland's coach has made keeping the Horns off the offensive glass a priority in terms of scoring an upset. When UT loses or the game is close, more often than not - the other team is either out working them on the glass or keeping it close to even. Oakland needs that today.

MICHIGAN-TENNESSEE OVER 127.5 [-107]
I'm not going to pretend to know who is going to win this game. I picked Tennessee in my brackets, but who knows which Vols team will show up today. Michigan plays a slow, methodical half court pace while Tennessee likely wants to speed that pace up to get easier transition opportunities. Neither team has shot all that well consistently from the field with both teams in the low 40s and both teams do generally play good defense. Tennessee however has found some sort of elixir in neutral court settings this season, averaging 77 ppg there. At their best, they can light it up as they showed with 78 against Villanova and 83 against Pitt. At their worst, they could wind up scoring in the high 50s. Michigan's zone looks on D are going to force the Vols to be patient and not settle for shots. Fortunately, Tennessee knows they are a poor shooting long range team so I don't expect them to jack up threes just because they get the looks. Michigan meanwhile will jack up the three at every opportunity. PG Darius Morris will be the key cog as he looks to penetrate and score or dish. What should help with this possible over is the Vols decided rebounding advantage that should give them some easy looks on the offensive glass off misses. Anything these teams make from the FT line is a bonus as both are below-average from the line. I think if Tennessee is aggressive though, they can help by at least getting FT opps.

**BiffTFinancial** · 03-18-11, 09:46 AM

love the UT/Michigan over, BOL to you today.

**yokes33** · 03-18-11, 09:51 AM

Good stuff, thanks guys. Very helpful

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 11:05 AM

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

NOTRE DAME TEAM TOTAL OVER 74.5 [-110]
The Irish were red hot down the stretch, shooting 49% from the floor and 45% from distance in their last five. They averaged 78 ppg in that span, up two points from their 76 ppg season average. Akron is a capable defensive squad by the numbers - but that was against MAC competition. Looking at when they stepped out of conference, the Zips were gauged by Temple for 82, 76 by an average Dayton club & 60 to an average Miami, FL club. Notre Dame can hurt Akron with their versatilty as I expect Carlton Scott & Tim Abromaitis to be a handful when they step away from the basket. Ben Hansbrough should look to come out and control this game from the start as this senior-laden squad should play with fire after flopping in last year's tournament. Expecting Coach Brey to keep the pedal to the metal for most of this one and if ND is hitting threes early, they should rack up plenty of points.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 01:18 PM

WEST REGIONAL

MEMPHIS-ARIZONA OVER 140 [-107]
Arizona is a talented offensive club when their cylinders are firing. They are led by stud Derrick Williams who can absolutely dominate the game inside the paint and step back and hit jumpers. I don't think Tarik Black from Memphis will have much success in containing him. Black has the size, but tends to get into foul trouble and will have trouble when Williams faces up against him. The Cats need PG Momo Jones to have a good game. He has to be a facilitator first and then look for his shot. Arizona gets in trouble when he confuses that role. Mayes, Parrom, Fogg & Horne can all hit the three. Memphis has struggled defending the 3 pt. line lately. Memphis is young with four freshman starters, but they don't lack talent. They play with a four guard look that can pose match-up problems with their quickness. Arizona's defense has struggled lately, giving up 50% shooting or thereabouts in seven of their last eight. Memphis shot 45% on the season and have the scoring options to keep up with Arizona. Joe Jackson & Wil Witherspoon may be the wildcards for Memphis today. Both come off the bench and can provide needed scoring pop.

HAMPTON TEAM TOTAL OVER 56 [-110]
While Duke should wind up winning this match-up comfortably, this point total has a good shot of being exceeded. Guards Darrion Pellum & Kwame Morgan are the main scoring threats and can drain the outside shot. Morgan especially will be one to watch outside the arc. The Pirates don't have much inside with senior Charles Funches as the best option. He did average double figures, but will need to steer clear of fouls. This is not a gifted offensive group, but they have only failed to score 56 points three times this year. Duke through a myriad of blowouts, only held four teams under this total all year. Tempo is key here. If Duke gets the game moving fast, that should suit this wager better as even though they will struggle - Hampton will have better opportunity in an open, garbage-time game to score points. Some may expect Hampton to slow the tempo, but I don't think that is their style if the other team establishes pace first.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 01:37 PM

Tennessee is so worthless. Even a 20 point 2nd half might have cashed the over in this one, but they have 11. Bye Bye Bruce Pearl.

Texas played their typical game and choked away the big lead, appreciate that boys! Got a nice cover there.

Notre Dame not shooting quite as well as I was expecting. Three point shooting is balls at 5/10, but they're only 6/18 at two point range - hence they are in trouble with just a four point lead at the half.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 02:47 PM

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

TEXAS A&M-FLORIDA STATE 1st HALF UNDER 56 [-118]
A difficult game to predict with two defensive-minded half court teams. Singleton's return is hard to figure into the equation to me because you have no clue how effective he will be. So, I'm simply going with a slow start here as both teams feel each other out hopefully.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 04:11 PM

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

KANSAS-BOSTON OVER 137 [-105]
Boston U. made two ventures outside their conference slate against big time power conference teams, playing Villanova & Kentucky early in the season. Both teams crushed Boston for over 50% shooting with 'Nova scoring an 82-66 win and Kentucky using a huge 2nd half to win 91-57. I'm expecting Kansas to come out full throttle. This team is motivated after last year's 2nd round ouster. KU shot a robust 51% from the floor this season in averaging 81 ppg. They scored 80+ in six of their last ten against much tougher competition. Boston is not much for scoring with just 65 ppg on 40% shooting, but if they agree to play Kansas' tempo - they should do enough to add to this total. John Holland is the stud for BU and he'll need to show tonight. KU was a big OVERs team away from home, hitting OVERs in 11 of 16. So long as the Jawhawks come out strong, they should do plenty of damage and give this a shot.

ST.PETER'S +15 [-105]
St.Peter's could be a bit of a danger to Purdue today as the Boilermakers come in off a pair of bad losses. They shot 30% & 36% in those two losses and St.Peter's will hope to defend tight and hit some threes to maintain contact with the #3 seed. St.Peter's guards Nick Leon & Wesley Jenkins are dangerous from deep. Forwards Ryan Bacon & Jeron Belin don't provide much bulk, but they do average double digits. Belin is good at scoring in the paint though. Good thing is Purdue is not a great rebounding team which is what would really hurt the Peacocks. JaJuan Johnson will have his way in the paint, but his outside scoring ability may not be as big against a team with defenders who can guard out there. If St.Peter's can keep this pace slow and hit some outside shots, this could be closer than expected. They played some tough teams out of conference [ODU, Alabama], so they won't be physically intimidated here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 04:13 PM

BIG DANCE: 7-6 [-0.37]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

Made a bad switch on the Duke game because I had the under first, but read too much on that match. 3-3 for the afternoon. Guess I'll take it. Need to do better tonight.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 07:21 PM

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

UNLV -1.5 [-107]
The Rebels draw the Illini in the 8-9 game. Illinois was very average down the stretch as they finished up 6-9 in their last 15. UNLV was pretty consistent all year. Illinois has not played all that well on the road & at neutral sites this season with a 4-7 road mark and 1-4 at neutral sites. Vegas has gone 8-3 on the road and 4-1 at neutral sites. Both teams are about even all around statistically. Both shot 46% from the field, both allowed 40% shooting. Overall, I just think Vegas was more consistent this season and I'll take my shot with that continuing tonight.

GEORGETOWN-VCU THREES MADE OVER 14.5 [+135]
*TWO UNIT BURY ME PLAY*
Switched to this one after I found this prop. With the high volume of threes that the Rams are putting up per game, this has a shot. They have put up 24 or more in four of their last five games. Their percentage may not always be sexy, but they seem to have an uncanny ability to float in eight or more pretty routinely. Couple that with the return of Chris Wright for the Hoyas tonight to add to their shooting arsenal and you have a three point parade waiting. Georgetown was awful scoring points without Wright, but they still hoisted up threes. Wright, Freeman & Clark all are capable of nailing 3-5 by themselves on any given night. I really like this prop.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 07:22 PM

This Kansas game is brutal. I haven't seen so many chip shots missed & balls rim out. Makes me sick. BU shooting 10% in the 2nd half. KU shooting poorly at around 40.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 07:34 PM

Switched my Georgetown-VCU wager. Keep forgetting to look at props. Really dig the 3 point prop in that game as there are likely to be 50 attempts between the two teams.

Well I either cash these last two or a losing day is on top. St.Peter's getting smoked now. Wee!

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-18-11, 11:10 PM

BIG DANCE: 8-9 [-0.84]
LITTLE DANCES: 1-3 [-2.10]

Three point prop saved my ass. Not real strong today, but not even down quite a unit despite the losing record. Saturday is bounce back day.