EP36's Dance Card

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT: NORTHWESTERN-BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 142 [-105]
Great OVERs numbers here. Northwestern OVERs in 10 of 14 road tilts. BC OVERs in 10 of 13 at home. BC has been incredible lately, shooting 49% from the field over their last five. Northwestern has been horrible defensively on the road, yielding 51% and almost 75 ppg. The Wildcats do produce points on the road though, almost 72 ppg on 44% shooting. BC allows 72 ppg at home. Two of the most efficient point per possession teams in D1. Looks for threes to play a big part. Early start at 11am ET.

[Pick'nParlays]

bol ep

[EaglesPhan36]

BIG DANCE: 8-9 [-0.84]
LITTLE DANCES: 2-3 [-1.10]

Feels good to start off with a winner. Optimistic today that it's gonna be a big day to move into positive units.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA WOMENS: DePAUL -13.5 [-110]
Yes, women's NCAA action, it's layup-tastic! I do play a few games here where there are edges and this looks like one to me. DePaul is the #3 seed here against the #14 Navy which finished tied for the regular season Patriot League crown. This is their first ever NCAA appearance. The Lady Blue Demons are an experienced bunch that lost a heart breaker in OT in last year's first round to a good Vanderbilt team. This year, they have won against some of the best in the Big East and the country. They beat Stanford by a whopping 20 points and beat Notre Dame down the stretch before losing in a tight contest to them in the Big East tournament. History may be the biggest ghost here for DePaul which has lost five straight 1st round games in the NCAAs. Still, Navy hasn't been outside of their conference this season much and the one common opponent these teams had was Villanova. Navy lost to them by 13, DePaul beat them by 19. DePaul is a talented team that shoots well outside and has height inside. Navy has some height to match up, but I'm not sure if the skill level is close to the same. I think DePaul gets off the schnide of losing 1st round games and if they establish a quick tempo, they should be able to put this Navy team away in the 2nd half.

[The_Kid]

EP, you looking at any other women's games? I feel this could be profitable early on when the powerhouse schools (Tennessee, UConn, Stanford, Baylor, etc) play these mid-major schools. I just took Duke. Depending on how they do, I will take Stanford and UCLA.

[EaglesPhan36]

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

MOREHEAD STATE-RICHMOND THREES MADE OVER 13.5 [-110]
*TWO UNIT MAKE ME OR BREAK ME PLAY**
You've got one of the most accurate three point shooting team in D1 in Richmond up against a Morehead State squad that has been hot from distance of late. Richmond shot 40% from beyond the arc, good for 6th best in the country. Richmond averages eight made threes per game. Morehead was a middle of the road squad, shooting 35% - good for six makes per game. Richmond has made double digit threes in their last two, making a superb 22 of 46 from distance. Morehead has had some issues stopping the three as they allow 37% on the season and 41% over their last five. Against Louisville, Morehead allowed 10/25 while knocking down 9/19. PG Demonte Harper is the best shooter for Morehead at 39%, while Terrance Hill hits 36%. Morehead can also get help from guards Sam Goodman & Ty Proffitt who both shoot above 35%. For Richmond, all five starters hit above 40% - so pick your poison. Justin Harper is the one I will watch today. The 6'10" forward is the best three point shooter on the team at 46% and has that great inside-outside game that will pose a difficult challenged for Morehead. With a team capable of double digit makes in every game in Richmond - this looks like a solid shot, especially if both teams hit around their average. I think Morehead will be a key here as I'd expect Richmond may have to double Faried down low at some point, leading to some wide open looks.

WEST REGIONAL

SAN DIEGO STATE -5.5 [-108]
Temple vs. SD State today. The Owls will want to slow this into a half court grind, while the Aztecs would love to make this more of a transition game where they can beat Temple back down the court. This will be a big test for Temple who has not really had to go up against the talent San Diego State has in their front court. The Aztecs boast scoring and rebounding from the likes of Leonard, White & Thomas. Temple simply does not have the horses to match that. They struggled early vs. Penn State with Jeff Brooks clogging the paint. When he went out injured, the game changed for the Owls. Temple does have a talented backcourt with Rodriguez & Moore who combined for 46 of the 66 Temple points vs. Penn State. I'd expect San Diego State to make it a huge key to stop these two today, knowing their interior players can handle Temple's. I think as long as San Diego State controls the boards and gets a little help scoring-wise from their guards, they will wear down Temple as the game progresses. Will be close, but I think they can sneak out a cover.

[EaglesPhan36]

EP, you looking at any other women's games? I feel this could be profitable early on when the powerhouse schools (Tennessee, UConn, Stanford, Baylor, etc) play these mid-major schools. I just took Duke. Depending on how they do, I will take Stanford and UCLA.

DePaul is shooting bricks, up by 3.

Slight leans on the ladies would be Texas Tech +4.5 and Fresno-UNC Over 149.5. The over I probably like better. Fresno loves to chuck up threes, so if they fall - that will be a fast paced game. UNC should get a lot of points inside where they have superior size.

[EaglesPhan36]

DePaul wins by 13. Missed a layup, two FTs and a jumper in the last two minutes. Any makes and they would have covered.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: FRESNO STATE-NORTH CAROLINA OVER 149.5 [-110]
Trying one more Beaver Banger. Two things here should help this be a high scoring affair. Fresno State's three point shooters and UNC's dominant size inside. Fresno leads the NCAA with 310 made threes this season. The Tar Heels boast three players at 6'3", 6'5" and 6'6" who should be able to get some easy looks and put backs inside over the smaller Fresno squad. Fresno averaged 76 ppg, while giving up 65. UNC put up 78, while yielding just 61. Since March started, the Heels look dominant offensively again after a four game losing streak. In March, they have scored 78 or more in four wins and 66 in a loss to Duke. Fresno played several NCAA tourney teams this year, losing to OU 84-66 and to Stanford 77-40. Both teams prefer a quick tempo, so if the shots fall - this should be a high scoring affair.

[EaglesPhan36]

WEST REGIONAL

UCONN -3.5 [-105]
The Huskies meet Cincinnati in an all-Big East affair. The regular season meeting went to UConn, 67-59 on the road. The Huskies shot 50% from the floor in that game and killed Cincy with 10/19 from beyond the arc. It was the young Huskies who came up big with Lamb, Napier & Smith all hitting multiple threes. Kemba Walker had 16. Both teams were solid in their openers, but I think the edge on the glass and also at the FT line goes to the Huskies. They look focused.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Richmond took shooting lessons from Georgetown overnight. Guys are missing wide open threes and missing badly. Not their usual MO. Prop bet looks toasty with just three made threes.

[EaglesPhan36]

2nd Beaver Ball pick barely gets over. But it slips by nonetheless to make up for that first one barely losing I suppose.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn make me or break me play missed today. 1-2 in the tournament on the double sized bets. Disappointed with that, but I guess I cannot blame them since they were killing Morehead inside the arc all game. Still felt like they passed up a lot of open opps that they usually take. Morehead offered little help today and also looked a bit scared to try threes today. Oh well. Go Aztecs!

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweet ass cover by San Diego State. Dunno how.

[EaglesPhan36]

CIT: SAN FRANCISCO +6 [-106]
Both teams cover well on the road-home splits. Six points is pretty solid for a SF team that could well win this straight up. Fukk the visit the Islands myth about it being a tough trip.

[EaglesPhan36]

big dance: 10-10 [-1.04]
little dances: 2-3 [-1.10]
beaver ball: 1-1 [-0.10]

[EaglesPhan36]

WEST REGIONAL

TIM HARDAWAY, JR TOTAL POINTS OVER 13.5 [-120]
If Michigan is going to have any chance of keeping today's game with Duke reasonably close, Hardaway is going to have to come up large. He has done just that in helping lead the Wolverines back to the NCAAs. He scored at least 15 points in 11 of Michigan's last 14 games. Part of that can be attributed to increased minutes. Hardaway was rarely playing 30 minutes, but once conference play started - he got heavier minutes and now plays 35 or more most games. He gets about 25% of Michigan's shots and is their leading three point shooter at 37%. His is also a solid FT shooter, so any times he can get to the line will only help here. Duke held opponents to 31% shooting from distance, so they do a good job of getting out on the shooters. This however is a unique offense that because of ball movement, should get the Michigan shooters some looks still. Will be interesting to see who draws Hardaway defensively. At 6'5", he's got about three inches on Duke's guards like Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving & Seth Curry.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GARDNER WEBB-MIAMI OVER 134 [-110]
Miami led the country in turnovers forced with 25 per game, that should mean plenty of transition opportunities to fuel a team that averaged 79 ppg this season. Gardner-Webb may not play as fast as Miami, but they did show they have no problem with pace in playing both Oklahoma and North Carolina out of conference during the season. Against OU, Gardner-Webb scored 75 and put up 62 against North Carolina. Both those games easily cleared today's number. They turned it over 36 times combined in those two games, so Miami should be able to force plenty today if they dictate tempo from the opening tip.

[EaglesPhan36]

WEST REGIONAL

TEXAS-ARIZONA OVER 141 [-105]
This is going to be the game of the day. Texas showed in its opener with Oakland that they will engage in a faster pace and that is what Arizona would like to show today. I think both of the studs in this game will show up big. Jordan Hamilton for Texas & Derrick Williams for Arizona. Both are match-up nightmares with their inside-outside ability. Hamilton's length is difficult for opposing guards/small forwards to match-up with. Derrick Williams can go inside and outside and I don't see Texas' Tristan Thompson matching up well with Williams' face-up game. Thompson could give him some troubles though if he gets touches in the low post. He had a big game vs. Oakland's Keith Benson. Arizona's defense has been poor in the last month and that continued against Memphis which shot almost 50%. Look for Texas' shooters to get plenty of looks today with J'Covan Brown in good form especially. Arizona's shooters, Momo Jones, Jamelle Horne & Kyle Fogg really need to step up against a Texas defense that did well against Oakland's long range bombers.

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

VCU-PURDUE OVER 134 [-102]
VCU is going to continue to play the only way they know how. They will try to speed up the pace of this game and force turnovers with their full court pressure. It worked against Georgetown who turned it over 17 times, leading to 17 points for VCU. One thing though is that Georgetown got plenty of open looks outside the arc against VCU, they just did not knoce them down. I would expect an experienced and efficient Purdue club to can those if they get them today. E'twaun Moore & Lewis Jackson can be lethal. JaJuan Johnson vs. Jamie Skeen should be a huge match-up in the post. Skeen has the bulk to get into Johnson, but Johnson's length can alter and effect Skeen's shots. Both guys can also float out onto the perimeter and drain the three. Won't be expecting VCU to hit such a high percentage of threes today as they did against the Hoyas, but they will continue to fire them up against a Purdue team that allowed a higher percentage of makes on the road this season. I think Purdue will be fine with a quicker pace today after playing a grinder against St.Peter's.

KANSAS-ILLINOIS UNDER 147 [-105]
I would expect Bill Self to focus on defense today after Illinois ripped apart a pretty good defensive team in UNLV. Illinois shot 59% from the field and got easy look after easy look. I don't think that will be the case today against Kansas. McCamey will have to go up against the likes of Tyshawn Taylor today who is a quick and pesky defender. Illinois' forwards who have more of a finesse outside game won't find as many openings against versatile defenders in the Morris twins. Kansas started very poorly against Boston, whether it was jitters or just poor play. They missed a ton of easy shots and open threes that started to fall in the 2nd half. Their defense really clamped down on a Boston team that reigned down some impressive threes in the 1st half. KU held Boston to just 24 points in the 2nd half and very poor shooting. By game's end, KU was up to its normal 50% from the floor which just shows how well this team functions when they play at 100%. Illinois plays solid team defense, but they will be under the gun today. They allowed just 40% shooting on the season & when they found their best results - it was their defense that led the way. Illinois contained some very good teams this year, but was also pounded by the likes of Purdue & Ohio State in conference. Both teams can put up points in a hurry, but defense I think will be the key today - especially for the Jayhawks who need to play better from the opening tip.

NOTRE DAME -4.5 [-105]
Notre Dame vs. Florida State. Offense vs. Defense. The Irish are a highly efficient group who maybe showed some nerves in their opener against Akron. They shot just 21/47 from the floor, but were still effective with 7/17 from distance and 20/26 from the line. FSU will be looking to grind this game into a half court pace, but the Irish will likely be okay with that. FSU will have to chase the versatile Notre Dame shooters through screens as the Irish should be able to wear down this gritty Seminoles team over the course of the game. FSU is certainly capable of winning this game, but they have not always contained teams well on the road this season. I think Notre Dame's bigs will be the key to the attack today as Scott & Abromaitis' ability to float away from the basket could give them some nice open looks. The Irish don't figure to get a ton of points in the paint where FSU's length alters shots, so look for the three ball to be much more of a weapon today. If the Irish can start quick, Florida State will have trouble scoring enough to keep it close.

[EaglesPhan36]

BIG Dance: 10-10 [-1.04]
LITTLE DANCES: 3-3 [-0.10]
BEAVER BALL: 2-1 [+0.90]

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GEORGETOWN-PRINCETON UNDER 118 [-110]
This one should be an ugly, defensive battle. Georgetown is not an offensively gifted team that averages just only 63 ppg. Princeton actually had better offensive numbers, putting up around 69 ppg. Both teams were stingy on defense with Georgetown allowing just 56 ppg and Princeton at 51 ppg against a weak Ivy League schedule. They did however play non-conference against Vanderbilt and Big East member Rutgers. They beat Rutgers 46-45. Georgetown lost 70-53 to Rutgers to give some perspective. Princeton as a dog has a chance here, but the Ivy League is 1-18 I think in the tournament and that's hard to go against.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: TEXAS A&M -20.5 [-110]
This is a quality Big 12 program that knocked off Baylor this year, so they are legit. They have routinely made the tournament in the past few years and have the ability to roll early in the tournament. It's been after the 1st round that troubles have come for the Lady Aggies. They face McNeese State which did not take on many power conference clubs. Their two most notable step outs were against Alabama, a 16 point loss to a lower tier SEC team and a 28 point loss to Memphis, a middle-of-the-road CUSA team. A&M should crush this team.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GEORGETOWN-PRINCETON UNDER 118 [-110]

Finished at 114. Yeaaahh beavuh!

[EaglesPhan36]

Hardaway finally woke up! Cash the points prop!

[vietphatty]

Lol that last three at the end

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: RUTGERS +145
Another silly line hung by the books today. They did this same thing earlier for James Madison being favored as an #11 over #6 Oklahoma because they were playing close to home. That's the only case I can see for Louisiana Tech drawing a -3.5 line here against a quality Rutgers club from the Big East. La.Tech did venture out of conference a few times with some wins and some losses. The best team they faced probably was Big East team Marquette that won by 8 over La.Tech. Marquette finished one game behind Rutgers in the Big East and Rutgers beat Marquette handily by 21 on the road and by 6 at home. The Scarlet Knights were hot down the stretch as well with wins in five of their last six. Vivian Stringer is one of the great tournament coaches and she'll be looking to keep her team from losing back-2-back in the 1st round for only the 2nd time since she took over the program back in 1995. Losing in the 1st round last year should serve as fuel for Rutgers tonight. The Lady Techsters are a capable club, but I don't think they should be favored here as the books believe playing in Shreveport will be a big boon to this team apparently.

[bigALbones50]

whatcha think about baylor -32 against prairie view, should smoke them but all importantly will they cover????

[EaglesPhan36]

I really don't like playing those lines over 30 points. They probably cover fairly easily, but Prairie View played some tough non conference games and wasn't always completely destroyed.

[The_Kid]

NCAAW: RUTGERS +145

Tailing you on this one, EP

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: TEXAS A&M -20.5 [-110]

A&M rolling by 40 with about a minute left. F-ing Texas back into their inconsistent scoring BS mode again. Thought for sure they would be able to keep up with Arizona given their crappy defense lately - but they're missing shots left and right.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cannot believe that Arizona-UT game did not go over. What a great bonehead job by the Horns though to not get the ball in at the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: RUTGERS +145

Up 25 in the 2nd half. Thanks for the nice money line oddsmakers. Both Oklahoma & Rutgers were superbly stupid lines today. Dogs should have been favored in both cases or at worst for Rutgers - a PK line. Doesn't bother me though.

[The_Kid]

NCAAW: RUTGERS +145

Great call

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 13-12 [-0.14]
Little Dances: 3-3 [-0.10]
Beaver Ball: 5-1 [+4.35]

Well Notre Dame screwing what could have been a real damn good day. Beaver Ball was bangin' today! Hopefully I can get into the black with the Regionals next week. Southwest is gonna be interesting with all these weird seeds in there. Kansas future though looks very strong at this point.

[EaglesPhan36]

IN-PLAY @ 7:54 left [54-40]: FSU-NOTRE DAME OVER 123 [-110]
Just stupid because I can.