was drexel really a 2 pt fave yesterday as an opener? Can someone confirm this (jax no offense) just cant believe the line jumped 4 pts
I could have sworn drexel was +2 in the morning.
I could have sworn drexel was +2 in the morning.
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Nice job, well we at least know it has still been profitable system up to now and it isnt even the second week of Feb. Hopefully it continuesits hard to say but I would have had Elon as a win, it opened at 7.5 and stayed there for a while and I even bought it to 8.. therefore I had the system going 4-2. Also on a personal basis I took Cal riverside before bed thinking that the line would move out to 6 but it didnt, when I saw bulldogs filters and CS Northridge was filtered out of Dunchens picks I stuck with Riverside buying to +6 and they won SU, but its technically not a proper play but I went 5-2 last night
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Loyola Cashed! and the 2ndHalf...not bad for a one game night.Comment -
Hendog, man you did a hell of a job explaining the system, I am not trying to step on any toes at all. I myself looked up the kinsystem to see if I could see anything else. Sometimes looking into a system you might see something and someone else might see something extra. sometimes 2 heads, or in this case 4 eyes, are better than 2. I copied info from what I read earlier and am going to try to put it in this post.
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In case you were wondering, here is how the system did for the entire week, working back till Feb 13th. System went 26-9 from Feb 13th - Feb 21st, including 10 straight up moneyline wins
Sunday Feb 21 - no plays
Saturday Feb 20 - 15-3; 7 straight up moneyline wins
Friday Feb 19 - 1-0; 1 straight up moneyline win
#309 Penn -7 LOST by 7 (system win)
Thursday Feb 18 - 5-1; 1 straight up moneyline win
#271 Western Illinois -9, won by 14 (system loss)
#282 Louisiana Monroe -10, LOST by 9 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -7, won by 2 (system win)
#195 Austin Peay -10, won by 5 (system win)
#202 Denver -13, won by 5 (system win)
#205 Montana St. -12.5, won by 6 (system win)
Wednesday Feb 17 - 1-0
#222 UC Northridge -8.5, won by 5 (system win)
Tuesday Feb 16 - No Play
Monday Feb 15 - 0-2
#195 Austin Peay -7.5, won by 20 (system loss)
#187 Arkansas St -7.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Sunday Feb 14 - 0-1
#197 Central Michigan -14.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Saturday Feb 13 4-1, 1 straight up moneyline win
#258 Yale -11.5, won by 13 (system loss)
#234 UC Riverside -7.5, LOST by 3 (system win)
#192 Troy -12, won by 3 (system win)
#250 Tenn Tech -10.5, won by 9 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -7, won by 2 (system win)
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Everyone keeps mentioning the fact that the strong Saturday was due to the fact that there were Bracket Buster games, ABSOLUTELY CORRECT and that is why I am planning on using this system ONLY from the middle of February for about 10 to 14 day span that includes the bracket buster games next season. The fact that the teams haven't played each other during this season (or possible ever) is always an advantage to the team getting the points.
Next season I will be using it from Feb 12-Feb 20th or so (or long if it isn't negatively affected by Senior Night games - we will see). The other reason to wait this long is that teams are ready to pack it up and quit their miserable season (hence they are in the bottom of Kenpom's rankings)
Also, upon closer examination, the system is hitting at almost the same percentage with non-bracket buster games (those played on the other days - and the ones on the 15-3 Saturday, because of course not all games last Saturday were bracket busters).Comment -
1/14 PLAYS
EDIT: UPDATED
EDIT 2: Listed in order of tipoff (Eastern time)
11AM-2PM:
Louisville -6 (2)
Vanderbilt +1 (3)
Alabama +1 (3)
Loyola-Chicago +3.5 (2.5)
UConn -9 (3)
Yale +1 (2)
5PM-9PM:
SE Missouri St +3 (2)
Central Florida +2 (4)
Oregon +4.5 (2.5)
Tenn-Martin +6 (2)
Samford +4 (2)
Fordham +11 (2)
Morehead -7.5 (2.5)
Drexel -7.5 (4.5)
North Texas -5 (3)
San Fran -4.5 (2.5)Comment -
DUNC, kenpom doesnt have games for tomorrow yet so how do you come up with the points in parentesis?
p.s. my eyeballs are sore from writing down all the openersComment -
I'm seeing North Texas at -5 so it still fits the system but by (3) points not (6).Comment -
hmm does Temple (pk) fit in??Comment -
kenpom has Drexel @ 91% chance to win yet their odds at thegreek are only -330, that's +EV if you trust kenpom's percentages.Comment -
sorry was looking at wrong page....Comment -
Dunc, i think you missed a few:
Samford +4
Alabama pik
Tenn Martin +6
Also looked up North Texas and it definitely opened at -5.
Lastly im not sure why you have CSU-Fullerton as KenPom has predicted CS Northridge 79-76.Comment -
Do to a party night I wasn't able to cap the plays...but I have 3 plays for tomorrow.
Washington State
Missouri
Louisville
G/L to all.Comment -
Now that KP's new data is up and more lines are out I'm double checking all of my work, but thanks. CSU-Full was a typo on my part so thanks for catching that. I can promise you North Texas was listed at -2, if only for 5-10 minutes, on 5Dimes. I'm guessing they took it down and voided it, which is why it doesn't show. But I know I saw it because I did a double take and considered taking it right then.Comment -
OK, I just updated everythingbut one problem may be that my lines aren't right on the opening. I usually look at sbrodds.com to check what the actual opening line was, but they don't have the lines up yet so I went off what was listed on 5dimes as of now. Some of these may have moved in by 1/2 a point? I'm not sure, but I can check in the morning and I may have to scratch some.
I'm only worried about ones that are listed as a (2) as they may have been a (1.5) but moved to 2 before I saw.
EDIT: Just checked them at Covers and they all check out.Comment -
Sorry Dunc didn't mean to question what you saw, im certain 5Dimes just made a mistake is what i was implying because i check the official opening lines of a game at covers.com. If you go there, click on ncaab matchups, you can then click on certain game matchups and in these will be a large table on the right hand side with the official opening line and then below will be the current lines with several different bookies.Comment -
Looking to start getting in om your picks..what are the plays for tomorrowComment -
Sorry to be annoying Dunc but as soon as you said you couldn't check your picks i went and looked for you and found
SE Missouri St opened at +2 which mean it wont be a pick,
also Morehead St opened at 8.5 which means that would not be a pick either,
other than that your goldenComment -
Bulldog Subset
AM
Louisville
Vandy
Bama
Loyola-Chicago
UConn
PM
Cent Fla
Samford
Morehead
N. Texas
San FranComment -
What does your subset mean again bro .. sorry .. If you get a chance ..Comment -
I believe Bulldog throws them through a few more filters.Comment -
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You guys are the bestComment -
Looks good lets hope for a better saturday then last... GLComment -
I put together this 6 team teaser with the filtered picks and green bay and baltimore wish me luck ..I also played the picks straight up as well
Jan 15 04:30 PM
Jan 15 08:00 PM
Jan 15 12:00 PM
Jan 15 01:00 PM
Jan 15 01:30 PM
Jan 15 02:00 PM
Internet / -1Jan 15 09:57 AM
NFL
NFL
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
6 team teaser
[109] BALTIMORE +9+105 (B+6)
[111] GREEN BAY +7½-110 (B+6)
[531] VANDERBILT +5-110 (B+4)
[538] VILLANOVA -1½-110 (B+4)
[545] ALABAMA +5-110 (B+4)
[555] CONNECTICUT -5½-110 (B+4)Comment -
top o the morning fellas.....working on my lines now...will post soon for games from 9am to 11am PST...Comment -
70 win 520.50. Wish me luckComment -
Nice!! Goodluck budComment
kenpom's games are posted well in advance
