Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

**jnsbanman** · 01-13-11, 11:41 AM

washington line is going down... now -7

**Fins007** · 01-13-11, 11:43 AM

Like your teaser plays!!......that's "sweet" if you can pull that out on a regular basis.
Acts as a real buffer...

I play them occasionally and it should work here. Can you please let us know what the teaser
play(s) are? Give it daily if you can.....If you don't mind....All suggestions are helpful.. Thanks much

**DaOutlaw1x** · 01-13-11, 11:48 AM

Richmond line also dropping
Loyola-Chi. Up to +2.5

**peterpan19** · 01-13-11, 11:51 AM

got a quaestion about DD spreads or KP Difference,

we dont play DD spreads, unless its a dog and the KP Difference is less than 10, correct ?

**Axis** · 01-13-11, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by GGZOLA

axis, whats up with utah state, they are 2.5 favs this morning, where really +3 last night what a jump if so.

Sorry boys...I was excited as well when I read that...BUT, I was apparently half asleep haha...

Checks and balances

Utah St. +3 was an error and has been corrected.

**jnsbanman** · 01-13-11, 12:21 PM

What do you think of these parlays... Elon, LOY Chi, and W Kentucky, 5 to get 30, and Buffalo, Purdue and Richmond 5 to get 30

**ROC1043** · 01-13-11, 12:28 PM

need some help in understanding kenpom web site

!) what is the rank # supposed to represent?????
2) what is the # next to the teams represent ????????
3) what does the % number after predicted score represent ????????
4) what does thrill # represent ?????????????

all help is appreciated

**nunny** · 01-13-11, 12:35 PM

Anyone know what the plays will be tonight? Gotta go to work soon.

**the12thman** · 01-13-11, 12:42 PM

i got in late on the picks, could only place bets on the games after 7ET, i went 2-4

but i see the system worked swimmingly, will continue tailing

**DaOutlaw1x** · 01-13-11, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by nunny

Anyone know what the plays will be tonight? Gotta go to work soon.

The plays are listed above

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by ROC1043

need some help in understanding kenpom web site

!) what is the rank # supposed to represent?????
2) what is the # next to the teams represent ????????
3) what does the % number after predicted score represent ????????
4) what does thrill # represent ?????????????

all help is appreciated

rank#-this guy ken pomeroys strength of team overall rankings, i.e. duke is 1-they are best team with a gazillion factors put in all the way to the shitty 345th team (worst in the land according to this dude)
#next to teams is their current daily updated rank i believe.
% is insignificant does NOT mean that team has a 94% chance of covering, its just something to do with how exciting the game will be or something to that effect.
thrill score=same thing unimportant.

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 12:55 PM

teasers may work in a few good spots but I dont suggest them. You are basically taking a 3 team parlay for 8 points and even money, not a good proposition takes only 1 game to stir shit up.

**DaOutlaw1x** · 01-13-11, 12:57 PM

The % next to his prediction is the % chance the team he says will win, wins outright NOT covers the spread.

**peteymal** · 01-13-11, 12:59 PM

Why are the picks under some elses name as opposed to dunchen.Im confused, I thought this was dunchen's thread.

**DuncHen22** · 01-13-11, 01:01 PM

1/13 PICKS

Sorry I didn't get these in last night but the updated data wasn't out before I went to bed. Here's my list:

1/13

BUFFALO +1 (2)
ELON +7.5 (3.5)
UCLA -3.5 (2.5)
CHATTANOOGA +1 (2)
CSU-NORTHRIDGE -3.5(2.5)
WKU -4.5 (2.5)
PURDUE -3.5 (4.5)
SANTA CLARA -6.5 (2.5)
UW -8 (3)

**Axis** · 01-13-11, 01:03 PM

^
It is his thread...and as you can see, he hasn't posted yet today (I believe he lives in the west coast time zone) so I was trying to help those out who wanted to see the games.

I've been using the same strategy for years...if you don't like it, feel free to look them up yourself or wait for Dunchen...I'm sure his will be identical to mine (unless some lines have moved).

Edit: he beat me hahaha

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 01:06 PM

LOCKING 2 plays as lines are moving with us, so we are losing points right now: ELON and SANTA CLARA, best spread u can get, shop around if you have the option.

edit****also locked in UCLA -3.5 @5dimes for 1 unit.

Here are my refined plays so far based on Jerry12345's theory of line movements (please read earlier pages for this)
ELON +6.5 1.5 UNITS (positive line movement)
SANTA CLARA -7 1.5 UNITS (positive line movement)
UCLA -3.5 1 UNIT (neutral, no move just wanna grab at 3.5)

**DuncHen22** · 01-13-11, 01:06 PM

Yeah no worries. It's actually good to have others able to do this because you can cover for me if I'm not around for some reason (like in early february I'll be taking a trip to LA for 8 days and will have limited computer access).

**jaythegreat** · 01-13-11, 01:11 PM

Thanks for the post dun22

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 01:19 PM

a recap so far quite a few games moving against kenpom's predictions: WASH, PURDUE, MIAMO-OHIO, which are all qualifying plays so tread carefully today....study line movements....yes they cost us points but seems to be spot on for the moment...

also adding: tenn-chatanooga or whatever the fcuk they called....I see line going down (a hunch) already moved to citadel -1.5 from 2, qualified as a play before, locking it in....TennCHAT +1.5 1.5 units

**DuncHen22** · 01-13-11, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by GGZOLA

rank#-this guy ken pomeroys strength of team overall rankings, i.e. duke is 1-they are best team with a gazillion factors put in all the way to the shitty 345th team (worst in the land according to this dude)
#next to teams is their current daily updated rank i believe.
% is insignificant does NOT mean that team has a 94% chance of covering, its just something to do with how exciting the game will be or something to that effect.
thrill score=same thing unimportant.

I'm actually fairly sure the % is their chance of winning the game (not covering but just winning). I've always thought of using those percentages to play ML games. As long as his percentages are right (i.e., all of his 60% games win 60% of the time, etc) all you would have to do is find the ML's that give you a +EV if you only win that percent of the time. For example, a line of -150 has an EV of 60%, so if you see a line of -150 that KP has listed as a 65% winner, you've got +EV. I've just never had time to track it and figure out whether it actually does win in the long run.

**ufcmma36** · 01-13-11, 01:27 PM

hmmmm may be on too something

**Axis** · 01-13-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'm actually fairly sure the % is their chance of winning the game (not covering but just winning). I've always thought of using those percentages to play ML games. As long as his percentages are right (i.e., all of his 60% games win 60% of the time, etc) all you would have to do is find the ML's that give you a +EV if you only win that percent of the time. For example, a line of -150 has an EV of 60%, so if you see a line of -150 that KP has listed as a 65% winner, you've got +EV. I've just never had time to track it and figure out whether it actually does win in the long run.

I tracked that stuff a few seasons ago and it wasn't that close...I even tracked the difference in points compared to what he predicted. Basically the higher the percent, the more often he was correct...but the %'s weren't spot on...

Then again, I haven't checked this is the past 2 seasons and he may have tweaked things since then.

I use that method of betting for hockey...I only bet dogs based on the value of the line on a given % chance of winning (that I find using various methods)...

Be interesting to see...If I had the time I'd do it.

**TxBulldog** · 01-13-11, 02:22 PM

Bulldog subset is....
Buffalo
Elon
Chatt
W. Kent
Cal-SC
Washington

**miamivice1** · 01-13-11, 02:28 PM

thank you.BD

**genghis_kahn** · 01-13-11, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Bulldog subset is.... Buffalo Elon Chatt W. Kent Cal-SC Washington

Bulldog, Cal-SC? Sorry if being stupid... appreciate all of your hardwork

**BIGDAY** · 01-13-11, 02:31 PM

Great work guys!

Much appreciated.

**BOSTONFAN** · 01-13-11, 02:31 PM

GL tonight

**Fins007** · 01-13-11, 02:32 PM

Thanks TXBulldog!!!As always.......I'm assuming Cal-SC is Santa Clara? Just checking.

**DuncHen22** · 01-13-11, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Axis

I tracked that stuff a few seasons ago and it wasn't that close...I even tracked the difference in points compared to what he predicted. Basically the higher the percent, the more often he was correct...but the %'s weren't spot on...

Then again, I haven't checked this is the past 2 seasons and he may have tweaked things since then.

I use that method of betting for hockey...I only bet dogs based on the value of the line on a given % chance of winning (that I find using various methods)...

Be interesting to see...If I had the time I'd do it.

Good to know. Did you find that KP wasn't accurate, but at least consistent? Like, did 70% plays hit 60% of the time, or anything like that? Or was there just a lot of variance?

I tried it with hockey a bit too but I was only going off accuscore which, despite the name, was not all that accurate. I think if I combined it with some other filter it would be useful but then I just focused on NCAAB and lost interest in hockey picks.

**LtDementia** · 01-13-11, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'm actually fairly sure the % is their chance of winning the game (not covering but just winning). I've always thought of using those percentages to play ML games. As long as his percentages are right (i.e., all of his 60% games win 60% of the time, etc) all you would have to do is find the ML's that give you a +EV if you only win that percent of the time. For example, a line of -150 has an EV of 60%, so if you see a line of -150 that KP has listed as a 65% winner, you've got +EV. I've just never had time to track it and figure out whether it actually does win in the long run.

I've been trying 2 team ML parleys using home favs of -7.5 to about -11 that fall into the 80+ KP % chance. Its been successful with a very limited sample.

LT

**kfranz31** · 01-13-11, 03:04 PM

this thread is a breath of fresh air...i dont post too much because i believe if you dont have anything good to say dont say it......there is just too much bs and bashing at this site..thanks for a great informative thread

**EasyHustlin** · 01-13-11, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by kfranz31

this thread is a breath of fresh air...i dont post too much because i believe if you dont have anything good to say dont say it......there is just too much bs and bashing at this site..thanks for a great informative thread

Agreed! Everyone contributing to this thread is the class of sbr right now.

**Axis** · 01-13-11, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Good to know. Did you find that KP wasn't accurate, but at least consistent? Like, did 70% plays hit 60% of the time, or anything like that? Or was there just a lot of variance?

I tried it with hockey a bit too but I was only going off accuscore which, despite the name, was not all that accurate. I think if I combined it with some other filter it would be useful but then I just focused on NCAAB and lost interest in hockey picks.

As far and KP's winning %'s...I found that above 70% was pretty good, but I never correlated them back to EV ML's and what the books actually had them at.

It would be something to look into I think...time permitting.

Sent you a PM about hockey.

**fphatpat** · 01-13-11, 04:40 PM

Hey guys, especially DuncHen of course, I just wanted to thank you for all the hard work put into this. I've read through the whole thread and it seems like a pretty legit system. Thanks again and keep it up