Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[ghost xx]

Was Siena -1/2 okay?

[chilidog]

Chili, I only found 1 CBB play.

Do you have any others?

Nope, I only have Siena. If you look at the lines now, pinny is favoring FAU. However, what my testing showed me was that right now is the worse time to run any numbers. The lines are adjusting like crazy, and I won't run any numbers or place any bets. I think that it's best to run the numbers either early in the day, or late in the day, but that doing it in-between is just a crapshoot.

If you take a look at the line history for that game, we have:

12/13 09:07 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
12/13 09:15 +3 -108 / -3 -102
12/13 09:20 +3 -104 / -3 -106
12/13 09:23 +3 -105 / -3 -105
12/13 09:53 +3 -101 / -3 -109
12/13 09:58 +3 +102 / -3 -113
12/13 10:10 +3½ -102 / -3½ -108
12/13 10:11 +3½ +100 / -3½ -110
12/13 10:12 +3½ +102 / -3½ -113
12/13 10:13 +4 -108 / -4 -102
12/13 12:19 +3½ -101 / -3½ -109
12/13 14:07 +4 -110 / -4 +100

Looking at these numbers, it shows me that pinny has been favoring Siena minus the points for most of the morning. Now, I never take line movement into consideration for this system; I'm just doing analysis on it right now.

As of now, pinny is 'favoring' FAU, but that doesn't mean much to me. To me, that's just in response to trying to balance out the lines. The lines will settle before gametime, and that's what you should pay the most attention to, if you didn't bet it earlier in the day.

[ghost xx]

I see what you mean. Makes sense.

[chilidog]

Was Siena -1/2 okay?

Every single play that I post is something that I just bet on; I don't post any plays that I don't bet on. Personally, with Siena currently being -4, buying the 3 points would have you at -1. Now, IF the bet that I made at Siena -0.5 wins, then worse case is that your Siena -1 would push. If the Siena -0.5 loses, then your Siena -1 is also going to lose.

So, if it were me, I would still put in a bet of Siena -1. It could lose, sure. Or it might win. Either way, big deal, it's just one game. I win more than I lose, and that's all that matters.

[Hanger]

nevermind

[Romanov]

This has become a real clusterfuck ha. Tonights NBA games are going to be sweet.

[ghost xx]

Too early

[chilidog]

This has become a real clusterfuck ha. Tonights NBA games are going to be sweet.

Heh, yah I guess it could be confusing to anybody that is new to the thread. It's pretty simple to understand, and I think it's been explained pretty straightforward. We'll definitely have some action on the NBA tonight. I got like 2 hours to go before I do em. I guess I'll get some work done; it's so hard to work seeing how beautiful it is outside here in Costa Rica, heh.

[Romanov]

Heh, yah I guess it could be confusing to anybody that is new to the thread. It's pretty simple to understand, and I think it's been explained pretty straightforward. We'll definitely have some action on the NBA tonight. I got like 2 hours to go before I do em. I guess I'll get some work done; it's so hard to work seeing how beautiful it is outside here in Costa Rica, heh.

Oh im not confused, not after the great day yesterday. I really want to lay a big bet down on the nba game with the largest advantage tonight.

Its really easy to get work done when its something like 2 degrees here (windchill that is)

[Gtownguy487]

Im up to 200 now thanks to you guys!!!

SO im guessing my unit count goes to $10??

Also I see talks about Siena however i havent seen it as a bet for chili or impper just talks about so i will wait until it is a for sure thing for them

[ghost xx]

Romanov,

Did you make your plays?

[Romanov]

Ghost xx:

I made a stupid early play in the NBA, as chili said early NBA plays are unpredictable. It may turn out okay but I am in no way suggesting it. I got Miami at -11, which i bought for -8 at (-170). The line is now 11.5 so that play is off the board. Who knows, at five o clock it could be a possibility. I am debating about taking Siena ML but that is not a system play and seeing as I am new to this, don't tail me. I would suggest tailing chili, as thats what I did until I figured out what he was doing somewhat, and I still tail him if I can catch the lines he gets. I really like Oregon and if it drops to a lower line with some good edge I will hop on that one immediately. But as of now, no plays to suggest.

You could go here to see for yourself:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator.aspx

and here:

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/ncaab/game/pointspread.html

[ghost xx]

I hear you.

[chilidog]

Im up to 200 now thanks to you guys!!!

SO im guessing my unit count goes to $10??

Also I see talks about Siena however i havent seen it as a bet for chili or impper just talks about so i will wait until it is a for sure thing for them

Congrats! I did list Siena -0.5 as a play, and I bet it.

With $200 as your bankroll, take 0.5% - 1% of that, and that's your unit size = $1-$2. You could go aggressive with it if you wanted to and use $5 as your unit size, but variance will kill you if you do that. Sure, I had a 4-0 day yesterday, but I could lose today. Who knows?

[chilidog]

Ghost xx:

I made a stupid early play in the NBA, as chili said early NBA plays are unpredictable. It may turn out okay but I am in no way suggesting it. I got Miami at -11, which i bought for -8 at (-170). The line is now 11.5 so that play is off the board. Who knows, at five o clock it could be a possibility. I am debating about taking Siena ML but that is not a system play and seeing as I am new to this, don't tail me. I would suggest tailing chili, as thats what I did until I figured out what he was doing somewhat, and I still tail him if I can catch the lines he gets. I really like Oregon and if it drops to a lower line with some good edge I will hop on that one immediately. But as of now, no plays to suggest.

You could go here to see for yourself:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator.aspx

and here:

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/ncaa...intspread.html

The NBA plays are unpredictable for me, so I don't do them in the day. Impper has had good success doing them early, so you're welcome to track and/or bet them if you want. What works for me doesn't necessarily mean that it's the best way to go - it's just the best way to go for me.

[jolmscheid]

Good stuff here guys...Yup Chili you're right I use RebateWager right now for this system...thinking really hard about using BetUS too but I am really scared about them...

Anyways, hopefully impper gets back to us about the football teasers and such about how many points to tease, how to put it in the calc. etc...

The NHL plays are up about 2 units since I started tracking them 2 days ago...it's weird though because tonight there would be a 20% advantage play using the special lines that 5Dimes gives out...

[mrkron]

I got no plays in NCAAB tonite but three in NBA

Miami -8
Chicago -5
Milwaukee +10 1/2

right now I have Florida Atlantic at +6.5 as a play but small .42%. i did not play it

[pokerwhiz90]

awesomeness!

[mrkron]

wow FAU was -123 and Sienna was +111 like 2 minutes ago and now back to -108 /-102

[Romanov]

To show how crazy the betting gets during the day for ncaab:

A minute ago the line was FAU +4 (-123) and the advantage of buying it up to +7 was sky high, above 4%. Now its settled at FAU +3.5 (-108) no advantage at all.

Is there a big difference between getting 6.5 and 7? Yes and no. Points wise if you think that a team is going to cover the 7, 6.5 should still be a bet. What is telling is the fact that Pinnacle has confidence in FAU to cover the spread. Is it a bet? I am not sure. Not right now

Edit: haha, we all saw that shit

[chilidog]

wow FAU was -123 and Sienna was +111 like 2 minutes ago and now back to -108 /-102

Yah I saw that; that line is jumping all over the place.

[chilidog]

To show how crazy the betting gets during the day for ncaab:

A minute ago the line was FAU +4 (-123) and the advantage of buying it up to +7 was sky high, above 4%. Now its settled at FAU +3.5 (-108) no advantage at all.

Is there a big difference between getting 6.5 and 7? Yes and no. Points wise if you think that a team is going to cover the 7, 6.5 should still be a bet. What is telling is the fact that Pinnacle has confidence in FAU to cover the spread. Is it a bet? I am not sure. Not right now

Edit: haha, we all saw that shit

Well for most of the morning, pinny was favoring Siena. Now they're favoring FAU. The closer to gametime that we get, the more accurate the line is.

[Romanov]

Plays so far for me:
Miami -8
Chicago -5

I am eyeing the Bucks and the Siena FAU game

We await Chili

[chilidog]

NBA
Chicago -5 2.4u
Milwaukee +10.5 3.3u
Utah -8 2.8u

GL!

[slimpickins]

Going to run NBA now and report back, but summary for NCBB for me:
right now with my book: No Plays
11 AM EST day plays on both FAU +7.5 and WISC -17 - my book's line was different than Pinnacle this AM
My book seems to catch up and match Pinnacle later in the day
Both were large plays for me, 4units. We will see how that plays out.

Cheme's simulation:
based on 6 PM EST he would have had a 2.47 edge play on Cal Poly +28
No other college plays.
not betting this but wanted to track it. he would have bet that as 2.5 units.

[jolmscheid]

Same NBA plays as you chili except I have no edge on Utah...and I have a play on Cal Poly +28 since my book was 1 full point off of Pinny....I don't like such a large spread, but the calc. says so!

[chilidog]

Running the numbers on my 2nd local (I did NOT bet these, I am listing them in case any of ya'll are getting different results and want to feel better about them):

NBA
Miami -8.5 5.4u
Chicago -5 5.6u
Milwaukee +10.5 4.5u
Utah -8 2.8u

[chilidog]

So, the plays that I am on (and have bets in play) are:

NBA
Chicago -5 2.4u
Milwaukee +10.5 3.3u
Utah -8 2.8u

CBB
Siena -0.5 2.2u

GL!!

[Gtownguy487]

So, the plays that I am on (and have bets in play) are:

NBA
Chicago -5 2.4u
Milwaukee +10.5 3.3u
Utah -8 2.8u

CBB
Siena -0.5 2.2u

GL!!

Why not bet the siena money line?

[slimpickins]

For NBA I am going to run with
Milw 6 units
Chicago 4 units
I notice Bodog is a half point higher on Milw which would have made it a big play for Cheme.
My book just moved Chicago lower making it otherwise a no play for me but would have been for Cheme so I am playing it
Utah had a minor edge but not enough to play for me, would have been a 1 unit play for Cheme.

[chilidog]

Why not bet the siena money line?

Sure, you could do that as well - whatever is cheaper for yah. I didn't even bother to look at the ML for it, but I'm showing it at -165 at my local. I have -0.5 at -165, so it's pretty much the same thing.

[Gtownguy487]

Money line is -150

[chilidog]

Money line is -150

Not for me; my local has it at -165.

[slimpickins]

Bulls line is going crazy!!!
up to -9 now. Got mine in before the latest jump at -5.5 with buying 3 pts.
I am playing Milw +10.5 even though it would have been +11 for Cheme.

I am probably playing units too high on these but will see how it goes and likely scale down tomorrow.
Bodog seems to be the most off compared to Pinny at this time of night so I am going to go with that as my basis for NBA plays rather than my book which seems to even up to Pinny later in the day.
Going to compare my early plays of FAU and Wisc vs. Cheme's late day NCAA of cal poly and see how that shakes up.

Good luck all.

[chilidog]

Bulls line is going crazy!!!
up to -9 now. Got mine in before the latest jump at -5.5 with buying 3 pts.
I am playing Milw +10.5 even though it would have been +11 for Cheme.

I am probably playing units too high on these but will see how it goes and likely scale down tomorrow.
Bodog seems to be the most off compared to Pinny at this time of night so I am going to go with that as my basis for NBA plays rather than my book which seems to even up to Pinny later in the day.
Going to compare my early plays of FAU and Wisc vs. Cheme's late day NCAA of cal poly and see how that shakes up.

Good luck all.

Yah, I prefer not to watch the lines anymore after I've done my bets. They move around so much, so all it's going to do is make me second-guess my bets or make me nervous. So I close the tab with sbrodds, and load up yahoo sports in a tab for each sport, and just check the scores periodically.