Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

I am also on FAU +3.5....
The line started out at -4 last night, went down to -3.5 this morning,and now back to -4.
Personally I think FAU is the better team.

It really could go either way; I don't care about who is the better team. I don't care about line movement or RLM. I mean, I can't count the number of times that the calculator has said that I have to bet the clippers, and I hate betting the clippers. But the majority of the time, the calculator is right. The only different here is that we are getting different lines, and thus, different plays. As of now, the FAU/Siena game would be a no-play, based on current lines. Earlier, it was a play, depending upon what line you had, and which side you will bet.

Hopefully, both bets hit and we middle. If not, no big deal, it's only one loss. We win way more than we lose, and that's all that I care about. I couldn't tell you the name of one single player in CBB, and I haven't watched one single game. I don't know, nor care, who are the good teams, nor the bad teams. I only care about 2 things: the pinny line, and my line.

[chilidog]

Ok so for example.

5dimes is +4 -107 -4 -103
Pinny +4 -108 -4-102

On the calculator FAU side(+7), I get
5dimes line 5.35
Pinny line 5.01
Edge = .34= No Play

On the Sienna(-1) side I get
5 dimes line 5.63
Pinny line 5.12
Edge =.51=No Play

Would that be correct. I inserted -195 on the +3 line in the chart, and recorded Fave Edge and Dog Edge.
I understand since 5 dimes juice is high, that there wouldn't be an opportunity for edges often, however as I said, I am just curious on this system that you guys are using. Knowledge is power right

Thanks for answering the questions guys, it seems you must all be really busy will this calculator lol

It sounds right, but I haven't ran the numbers. After a little bit of doing it, instinct kicks in, and you just know by looking at the lines if you even need to bother inputting the game into the calc or not. It takes me 5 minutes max to run the games each time I do it (maybe 10 minutes on Saturday when there's a buttload of games).

Oh that makes sense. Youre not running every game, just where there is a difference of Pinny line Vs your book. Interesting

Correct. When I run the CBB games in the daytime, I only look at games where pinny has one of the sides at -108 or worse. For NBA that I run at night, I run all of the lines, because the lines have pretty much settled by then. The theory is that by doing the -108+ games early in the day, you have a much better chance at beating the closing line, and that works out awesome.

Some of the guys here also run the NBA games during the day, but I've had such bad luck with doing that, so I just don't. If it works for yah, then by all means, do it.

[slimpickins]

hanger, no we are running every game through the calc but chances are it will not show a positive edge unless your line differs from the Pinny line in my experience. Sometimes it will and if you were getting -105 without buying pts. you would like have edges without 3 pts. each time as well.

Your edge calcs. from above are not correct, at -195 you will likely rarely show positive instead of negative EV
Since others helped me understand, take a look at below:

based on what numbers you gave ONLY
you plug in 4 as the line and the Pinny numbers at the top
scroll down 3 both ways
-1 should show -2.39
+7 should show -2.38

subbing in your -195 on the bottom portion would change your
_7 to -5.34
and -1 to-5.63
both very negative and not worth betting, only when a positive number comes up is it worth betting.
The number that you replace -195 must be greater than -195 or there will not be a positive percentage.
Take a look so you understand.
At -195 it likely is not worth buying 3 points, you may want to experiment with playing the plays without buying any points just finding the right side based on line differences from Pinny vs. other books.

[slimpickins]

hanger: timing is also very important as Pinny's percentages jump throughout the day.
we are betting based on a snapshot of Pinny's lines and leans towards a game vs. our book at one particular time.
Chili has found the times that work best for his plays, but it is possible that other times of day work better for other books?
TBD I guess and it can be costly to find out.

[slimpickins]

Sorry for all of the posts, but I find this to be true after doing this for just a few days:
you for the msot part know which games are likely plays on which side by looking at the lines Pinny vs. your line.
5 dimes is usally so clsoe to Pinny that differences are less likely.

The calc for the most part does not tell you this but reinforces it and also tells you how much in units to bet based on the 1 + edge x 1.4 figure that impper proposed.

[Hanger]

Sorry for all of the posts, but I find this to be true after doing this for just a few days:
you for the msot part know which games are likely plays on which side by looking at the lines Pinny vs. your line.
5 dimes is usally so clsoe to Pinny that differences are less likely.

The calc for the most part does not tell you this but reinforces it and also tells you how much in units to bet based on the 1 + edge x 1.4 figure that impper proposed.

Yes, I figured that as 5dimes usually tails Pinny pretty closely with the lines. The unit math I understood, that seems to be the easy part. After you redid my calculation I see what you are talking about. The only difference I had were in like .05 percentage points, and I have no clue how lol....I am going to try another one and see what happens.

Thank you very much for the help and responses.

[Romanov]

Since my book has siena -4, which yields no advantage, I looked at the moneyline (-175). It gives no advantage now but it might soon if the ml keeps moving

[chilidog]

hanger: timing is also very important as Pinny's percentages jump throughout the day.
we are betting based on a snapshot of Pinny's lines and leans towards a game vs. our book at one particular time.
Chili has found the times that work best for his plays, but it is possible that other times of day work better for other books?
TBD I guess and it can be costly to find out.

It doesn't have to be costly. Just record what games you would bet, but don't bet them. I do plenty of tracking where I don't actually bet the plays; that could potentially be a huge blow to my bankroll if something I were testing ended up failing.

The times that work best for me are based on my book, but remember that impper also does rather well doing the numbers around 11am CST as well, using betus' lines. I tracked so many different variables, and I found that either doing them early in the day, or before gametime, were the best. As for which book that you use, that part really doesn't seem to matter too much.

Sorry for all of the posts, but I find this to be true after doing this for just a few days:
you for the msot part know which games are likely plays on which side by looking at the lines Pinny vs. your line.
5 dimes is usally so clsoe to Pinny that differences are less likely.

The calc for the most part does not tell you this but reinforces it and also tells you how much in units to bet based on the 1 + edge x 1.4 figure that impper proposed.

This is also very true. Not even looking at the calculator, you get a feel for knowing which games you are going to play, and which side you're going to play. I'm pretty much at the point where I just need the calculator to tell me what my edge percentage is, so that I know what unit size to bet.

[chilidog]

Since my book has siena -4, which yields no advantage, I looked at the moneyline (-175). It gives no advantage now but it might soon if the ml keeps moving

I wouldn't do that if I were you. The calculator doesn't have any functions for ML - just spreads and totals for CBB. In this case, the bet was okay, since the play for me was Siena minus the points, and the moneyline would be fine if Siena wins it. But you can't base calculations on the ML.

[Romanov]

I wouldn't do that if I were you. The calculator doesn't have any functions for ML - just spreads and totals for CBB. In this case, the bet was okay, since the play for me was Siena minus the points, and the moneyline would be fine if Siena wins it. But you can't base calculations on the ML.

I am essentially buying 4 points for -175. It works out to a .78 advantage for me since my book has siena -4(-105)... I think

[chilidog]

I am essentially buying 4 points for -175. It works out to a .78 advantage for me since my book has siena -4(-105)... I think

In this case, yes, it worked out for you.

[Deedrik]

Hey guys, is there a spreadsheet that can help me with these calculations? I've been reading through this post and still feel rather confused...

[Hanger]

Ok, so I have done it again, this time doing as you say however I am using -170 for illustrative purposes.

Pinny Line: +3.5 -101 -3.5 -109

I insert that in the top:
Scroll down to -6.5 Insert -170 I get -3.5% Edge
Scroll up to -.5 Insert -170 I get .03% Edge

The Dog is very Negative here, the Fav is only slightly positive- so that would be a NO PLAY.

I think I understand the system- it is very intriguing and I appreciate the explanations that I have received. I understand how the juice of buying +3 would keep someone from using this system at some offshore books -195 is rather steep and the plays would almost never exist. This system would be interesting to track at a standard deviation of -170 or -165. Thanks again guys!

[chilidog]

Hey guys, is there a spreadsheet that can help me with these calculations? I've been reading through this post and still feel rather confused...

No. Where are you getting confused?

Ok, so I have done it again, this time doing as you say however I am using -170 for illustrative purposes.

Pinny Line: +3.5 -101 -3.5 -109

I insert that in the top:
Scroll down to -6.5 Insert -170 I get -3.5% Edge
Scroll up to -.5 Insert -170 I get .03% Edge

The Dog is very Negative here, the Fav is only slightly positive- so that would be a NO PLAY.

I think I understand the system- it is very intriguing and I appreciate the explanations that I have received. I understand how the juice would of buying +3 would keep someone from using this system at some offshore books -195 is rather step and the plays would almost never exist. This system would be interesting to track at a standard deviation of -170 or -165. Thanks again guys!

I'm glad it finally clicked for yah. Once that moment happens, you begin to see all the dollar signs.

[hip07039]

I also have been reading this thread and it all sounds great, I'm looking to make play on the game but don't know who to go with the -.5 of CHILI or +7 or something with slimpickens. If it matters my site, betus.com has the line at -4, what should my move be.

I also am wondering what he calculations tell you, I am an avid sports fan and follow most games and watch them, CHILI when you said you can't name anyone or even watch the games it scares me a little. I don't mean to knock you, im sure you are making good money and that's the bottom line, through and through. But how can you just bet on these games with just plugging in numbers. You don't follow the momentum and strengths of teams on the road, home, etc.. college bball is known for momentum and home team swings. Anyway I just wanted to get some clarification and learn, i'm new to the forum scene and am seeing what is good. If you want to see more of what i have to say I have a football thread called Hibbies picks or something, I usually hit 80% of football games...don't take my JETS plays though, im biased

thanks for the time

[slimpickins]

Hanger: yes you have it down now.
You want to see an edge of at least .25 I would say before considering it as a play.
Some might say .50 or .75 or even 1.00 plus.
Either way .03 is not enough.

[Deedrik]

Just read off Hanger's posts that he is inserting lines and calculating values...sounds like he has an excel spreadsheet for the calculations

[chilidog]

I also have been reading this thread and it all sounds great, I'm looking to make play on the game but don't know who to go with the -.5 of CHILI or +7 or something with slimpickens. If it matters my site, betus.com has the line at -4, what should my move be.

I also am wondering what he calculations tell you, I am an avid sports fan and follow most games and watch them, CHILI when you said you can't name anyone or even watch the games it scares me a little. I don't mean to knock you, im sure you are making good money and that's the bottom line, through and through. But how can you just bet on these games with just plugging in numbers. You don't follow the momentum and strengths of teams on the road, home, etc.. college bball is known for momentum and home team swings. Anyway I just wanted to get some clarification and learn, i'm new to the forum scene and am seeing what is good. If you want to see more of what i have to say I have a football thread called Hibbies picks or something, I usually hit 80% of football games...don't take my JETS plays though, im biased

thanks for the time

Why would it scare you? The lines tell you everything. The lines have already taken into consideration any weather reports, injury reports, etc., anything you need to know - the lines already show all of that. I don't need to watch the games, nor know any of the players, because the lines tell you everything. They tell me where the +EV plays are at, and how much to bet. What else is there that I need to know??

[Hanger]

To further continue an education today....on the sbrodds- Pinny at -3.5 BETUS- which I see you guys using, is at -4 On the calculator, do you select -.5 or -1? I guess the question at this point is, what do you play. Buy 3 from the Pinny line, which would really be 3.5 on the BETUS line, or do you buy 3 at BETUS making your play -1? Thanks

Also, throughout the thread you guys are getting a lot of plays, how is this? Is there really that many opportunities for an edge by buying 3 points? All the examples I am trying come back as no plays. Thanks

[chilidog]

Hanger: yes you have it down now.
You want to see an edge of at least .25 I would say before considering it as a play.
Some might say .50 or .75 or even 1.00 plus.
Either way .03 is not enough.

Yup, I stick with 0.75%. Cheme's minimum was 1%. it's really up to you what you want to do.

Just read off Hanger's posts that he is inserting lines and calculating values...sounds like he has an excel spreadsheet for the calculations

Nah, we're using the halfpoint calculator.

[slimpickins]

hip: keep in mind that the reason for our plays was
my book was 4.5 and Chili's was 3.5 at the time when Pinny was 4 hence the reason for us being on two different sides.
2 different books, 2 different lines.
Chili did say on his other book it was 4.0 and hence no play at all.

If I had to pick one to side with it would be Chili over me, I am a newcomer to the calc. ; but honestly this may be a better no play.

[Hanger]

Just read off Hanger's posts that he is inserting lines and calculating values...sounds like he has an excel spreadsheet for the calculations

Here using this

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator.aspx

[slimpickins]

To further continue an education today....on the sbrodds- Pinny at -3.5 BETUS- which I see you guys using, is at -4 On the calculator, do you select -.5 or -1? I guess the question at this point is, what do you play. Buy 3 from the Pinny line, which would really be 3.5 on the BETUS line, or do you buy 3 at BETUS making your play -1? Thanks

Also, throughout the thread you guys are getting a lot of plays, how is this? Is there really that many opportunities for an edge by buying 3 points? All the examples I am trying come back as no plays. Thanks

It sounds a little confusing they way you word it but if the line is different you start with Pinny but buy to your 3 points and then plug in -170 or -165, etc..
So if the line was 3.5 at pinny you put that up top but if your line is 4 you move to 7 or 1 not 6.5 or .5
make sense?

[chilidog]

To further continue an education today....on the sbrodds- Pinny at -3.5 BETUS- which I see you guys using, is at -4 On the calculator, do you select -.5 or -1? I guess the question at this point is, what do you play. Buy 3 from the Pinny line, which would really be 3.5 on the BETUS line, or do you buy 3 at BETUS making your play -1? Thanks

Also, throughout the thread you guys are getting a lot of plays, how is this? Is there really that many opportunities for an edge by buying 3 points? All the examples I am trying come back as no plays. Thanks

In the lower half of the calculator, that is strictly for your lines at your book, which would be betus. If betus is saying that 4 is the spread, then you'd go from 1-7 to see what your edges would be.

We normally get a lot of plays, because there are literally that many plays with edges on them. It can tie up a chunk of your bankroll on days with tons of games, so you have to use good money management. There aren't many games on the board today, and I only have 1 CBB game so far, so that's why you're not finding any plays at the moment. The last time that I ran the numbers 2 hours ago, there were no CBB games. If you NBA games early, then yah, there's some NBA plays that you could play.

It took me less than 1 minute just now to run the NBA numbers, and I came up with 5 plays. I'm not betting them, nor advising anybody else to bet them either (because it's way too early for me, I still have 4 more hours to go before the lines settle them), but I came up with miami, chicago, portland, milwaukee, and utah. You can use those picks as a basis to play with the calculator to see what you would get. I get -165 for 3 points at my local, so I use that in the calc instead of -170.

[Hanger]

It sounds a little confusing they way you word it but if the line is different you start with Pinny but buy to your 3 points and then plug in -170 or -165, etc..
So if the line was 3.5 at pinny you put that up top but if your line is 4 you move to 7 or 1 not 6.5 or .5
make sense?

Ok so in this sense Pinny is at 3.5 BETUS is at 4 I would pay to move the line to 7 or 1, not 6.5 or .5 I got you. Makes perfect sense. So in this instance, I still scroll down to 7 and input the line, even though it is a line movement of 3.5 from the Pinny line, because BETUS is at 4+3=7. You are actually gaining the hook off of a book being better for the dog in this case than Pinny. VERY interesting Too bad 5dimes charges so much for the 3 points. Wonder if I have any freeplay at BETUS still LOL...

[chilidog]

hip: keep in mind that the reason for our plays was
my book was 4.5 and Chili's was 3.5 at the time when Pinny was 4 hence the reason for us being on two different sides.
2 different books, 2 different lines.
Chili did say on his other book it was 4.0 and hence no play at all.

If I had to pick one to side with it would be Chili over me, I am a newcomer to the calc. ; but honestly this may be a better no play.

Heh, or I could be completely wrong, and yours was the way to go. I really urge everybody to do their own calculations. While my plays may be hitting now for anybody that tails them, the way that this works is that overtime, the plays that you get using your own calculations will make you money.

There are numerous people running this system now in this thread, and people are posting different plays, at different lines, at different times of the day, and using different books. And for the most part, there is one common theme - we're all having more winning days than losing days.

[slimpickins]

Chili: I am also going to try and post my simulations of what Cheme's plays would be.
Based on his posts he was running calcs around 3 PM EST during the week and comparing Pinny to Bodog, buying 3 pts. for -165.

if I don't get around to posting them I will at least track them just to see how the sides work out in case my book turns out to be taking correct sides and making my .5 advantages traps which they could be.

[chilidog]

Chili: I am also going to try and post my simulations of what Cheme's plays would be.
Based on his posts he was running calcs around 3 PM EST during the week and comparing Pinny to Bodog, buying 3 pts. for -165.

if I don't get around to posting them I will at least track them just to see how the sides work out in case my book turns out to be taking correct sides and making my .5 advantages traps which they could be.

For the most part, yah. Because he had classes and stuff, sometimes he could only post them around 3pm. But he advice was to do the numbers as close to gametime as you can. Sometimes he would post the plays like 5-15 minutes before gametime started. He used bodog because his local used bodog's lines.

It is an interesting theory that by simply doing exactly what he did, regardless of what lines your book has, and making the plays, that it's still very very profitable. For instance, if bodog has a play at +8.5, and your book had it at +7.5, and the numbers said that the +8.5 was a play (making it +11.5), it would still hit so much, even though you were only able to get it at +10.5.

That's why I really don't think it matters at all which book that you use to do the numbers.

[slimpickins]

Sounds good, I will calculate them later than 3 EST than, and yes that is what I was thinking.
Fact is he was hitting at an insane percentage even without buying 3 points so he seemed to be getting the right sides not just an edge by buying points.

[Hanger]

It took me less than 1 minute just now to run the NBA numbers, and I came up with 5 plays. I'm not betting them, nor advising anybody else to bet them either (because it's way too early for me, I still have 4 more hours to go before the lines settle them), but I came up with miami, chicago, portland, milwaukee, and utah. You can use those picks as a basis to play with the calculator to see what you would get. I get -165 for 3 points at my local, so I use that in the calc instead of -170.

BINGO, ran the NBA with your -165 and I got the same results. Least I know I did the inputting correctly. I use 5dimes as my main book, so obviously between buying 3 for -190/NCAA 3 for -200 on NBA and how closely they are tagged to Pinny, this strategy wont work for me. Especially since what kind of EDGE will you get when youre paying the man -190 lol but I learned a lot by this entire thread, and thank you all for the answers today.

[chilidog]

Sounds good, I will calculate them later than 3 EST than, and yes that is what I was thinking.
Fact is he was hitting at an insane percentage even without buying 3 points so he seemed to be getting the right sides not just an edge by buying points.

Yup, but for NBA. It wasn't working out that well in CBB - at all. The NBA hits at a very high rate even without buying the 3 points. With CBB, you will lose your ass.

[chilidog]

BINGO, ran the NBA with your -165 and I got the same results. Least I know I did the inputting correctly. I use 5dimes as my main book, so obviously between buying 3 for -190/NCAA 3 for -200 on NBA and how closely they are tagged to Pinny, this strategy wont work for me. Especially since what kind of EDGE will you get when youre paying the man -190 lol but I learned a lot by this entire thread, and thank you all for the answers today.

You could always setup an account at sportsbook.com and run the numbers. I know that betus has a shady reputation on here, but people are reporting that sportsbook.com has been paying out via wire transfer usually within 2 business days after your withdrawal request. I've never had issues with either book, but I don't use them for this system. I'm sure it'd work just fine, though.

[Hanger]

Wow I thought 5dimes was high, the greek is like -220 for 3 points lol. Betjam is also 170 as well as sportsbook. Although with sportsbook in the 5 minutes I was on there site, it experienced difficulties 3 times lol. no thanks....I will keep shopping. I am interested in this system, for a nominal bit

[chilidog]

Betjam is a good book, but they already took away the 3 point buying for -170 for jolmscheld. I guess he was kicking their ass too much, lol.

That's a little weird about sportsbook.com, but they are a solid book. Just whatever you're most comfortable with. You will need either a local or several recreational books to make this work for yah.

[ghost xx]

Chili, I only found 1 CBB play.

Do you have any others?