Cheme82's CBB plays for November

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  • impper
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-11-10
    • 490

    #631
    how do you mean centering the spread? i've moved the calculator down or up, depending on the number. for example, say pinny's line is -7 -105, +7 -105, and our book's is 7.5. I'd put pinny's line at the top, which centers the calc at 7, and then scroll down to +10.5 on the dog to find the edge
    Comment
    • chilidog
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-05-09
      • 10305

      #632
      Same thing. When you input pinny's spread of 7 up top and hit calculate, the spread at the bottom will center at 7. So if I click down once, it's now centered at 7.5. I would input -165 (or -170 in your case) at the +10.5 spread.

      But that part is what I'm thinking about now. Several of my recent losses have been because of this. A lot of them actually. I win at a high rate when my local's spread is the same as pinny's.
      Comment
      • impper
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-11-10
        • 490

        #633
        Yeah. This might be something to track. However, getting a point better than pinnacle (no matter which way you go) should be profitable in the long run regardless of buying points or not, and according to the calculator, getting a half point while buying points gives us an edge. By the calculator, it's still not profitable to cross bad push probabilities even while getting a point, so I don't think that should be screwing us either. Could it just be short-term variance? I can't think of any reason why this would railroad the system, but there's some chance that it is...

        I forgot to mention also that I bet on memphis yesterday because my book was offering +6.5 while Pinny had them favored at +5.5. Now obviously Memphis won, and I put a sizable bet on Memphis because of this discrepancy. So I'm thinking it could just be short-term...
        Comment
        • chilidog
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-05-09
          • 10305

          #634
          Here's something interesting. I went over my records for November, and just by flatbetting 2 units a play, I would've made 4.9x as many units as I did.

          I had 181 wins and 109 losses, bringing me to a 62.4% win percentage. The plays also did significantly better without buying the 3 points, because of all that extra juice wiping out wins.

          I guess this is because of me losing several 3-5% bets, but winning a lot of the 1-2% bets.
          Comment
          • impper
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-11-10
            • 490

            #635
            that's pretty interesting . . . it seems like flatbetting at a 62.4% win percentage should be just north of breaking even
            Comment
            • impper
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-11-10
              • 490

              #636
              Originally posted by chilidog
              I guess this is because of me losing several 3-5% bets, but winning a lot of the 1-2% bets.
              Yeah, this is part of why I use my formula, so that there's a little more money going into all the 1-2% bets. Still, those should not be as profitable as the 3-5% bets regardless of your unit sizing in the long run
              Comment
              • chilidog
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-05-09
                • 10305

                #637
                You only need a 51.3% win percentage to break even if you're not buying 3 points and getting lines at -105.
                Comment
                • chilidog
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-05-09
                  • 10305

                  #638
                  It's weird; in October, more money was made with buying 3 points. Last month, more money was made without buying points.
                  Comment
                  • impper
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-11-10
                    • 490

                    #639
                    Ah yeah, I thought you meant you were 181-109 on point-buying games, which you do need to hit at ~62% to break even
                    Comment
                    • jolmscheid
                      Restricted User
                      • 02-20-10
                      • 3256

                      #640
                      Originally posted by impper
                      yes, in that case I'd put the calculator centered at +7/-7. I always put pinny's number into the calculator and NOT my book's.

                      Now that I think about it, betting based on getting a better line at my book has been where most of my recent losers have been as well. Last night, the Kings and the Warriors were both at +4 at pinny, but my book had them at +5 and +5.5 respectively. I lost on both by a large margin, and had I been capping the games myself I would have bet against the Kings and Warriors.

                      Still, it SHOULD NOT MATTER, as getting 1 or 1.5 points better than pinnacle's line should be a winning bet in the long run regardless of which way we bet...
                      EXACTLY impper....I put in what Pinny's line is at and then I go off of what my book has...so for instance if Pinny has +7 / -7 and my book has -6.5....then I look at the calculator to see what my value is if I buy the points down to -3.5 at my book.....getting that half point should HELP us most often I think guys...I would not stay away from games that are 1/2 point off of Pinny's....we know that our "rec" books will most likely move CLOSER to Pinny's line, not away from it, so getting that half point should be great for us...I don't know why you would skip those games???

                      I went 6-1 last night in CBB with North Carolina as my only loss....I did the games at about 4:30 and ONLY did games where my book's lines were off OR if Pinny was leaning towards one side at -108+...I like doing those games because it is more likely that the line will not move against me if Pinny is leaning towards that side at -108....

                      Today I have to do my calcs really early, so I will make sure to ONLY bet games where I get a better line or the odds at Pinny is leaning towards one side....
                      Comment
                      • chilidog
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-05-09
                        • 10305

                        #641
                        Awesome job last night, jolm! I'm glad that some of us had a good night
                        Comment
                        • Ras1112
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 09-04-09
                          • 241

                          #642
                          Kudos to you guys for all tips and discussions you have here. Feel a bit down after 2 losing days in a row but looking back record was 36-21 since i started 3 days ago. So, go figure
                          Now about Pinny's spread changes, when line moves up or down in relationship to my book (assuming it's balanced @ -105/105) we already know where the edge is gonna be. Only problem is u never know if it will move back or whatever direction it will go. Isn't that right? That works mostly during the day and by game time lines are mostly settled and I can find only 2-3 games at best when my book has line different spread/line than pinny. However 5-10min before the game there are some sudden moves moves sometimes. So we back to one of the major question should we track or ignore all changes during the day?
                          BOL!
                          Comment
                          • jolmscheid
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-20-10
                            • 3256

                            #643
                            I think that by playing the Pinny leans of -108+ or where the line is off gives some extra security in beating the closing line (I also only play edges where I get .75%+)....I beat or matched the closer on every one of my games last night.....I think it is because I am not playing the games where Pinny is not really leaning any which way...I will miss out on some games, but I think it will erase some losses too...
                            Comment
                            • impper
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-11-10
                              • 490

                              #644
                              Originally posted by jolmscheid

                              EXACTLY impper....I put in what Pinny's line is at and then I go off of what my book has...so for instance if Pinny has +7 / -7 and my book has -6.5....then I look at the calculator to see what my value is if I buy the points down to -3.5 at my book.....getting that half point should HELP us most often I think guys...I would not stay away from games that are 1/2 point off of Pinny's....we know that our "rec" books will most likely move CLOSER to Pinny's line, not away from it, so getting that half point should be great for us...I don't know why you would skip those games???
                              I only skip the games where Pinny is leaning one way and my book has moved the line already in the same direction Pinny is leaning. So let's say the line is -7 -110, +7 -100 at pinnacle, and my book is giving me -7.5 -110, +7.5 -110. See what I mean? They're anticipating Pinny will move the line to 7.5 before too long, and the only way I'd be able to bet at my book is on the +7.5, but pinny is leaning heavy the other way at +7...
                              Comment
                              • chilidog
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-05-09
                                • 10305

                                #645
                                Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                I think that by playing the Pinny leans of -108+ or where the line is off gives some extra security in beating the closing line (I also only play edges where I get .75%+)....I beat or matched the closer on every one of my games last night.....I think it is because I am not playing the games where Pinny is not really leaning any which way...I will miss out on some games, but I think it will erase some losses too...
                                That's a good point. Several of my losses are when pinny has the line at -105, -106, or -107, and a lot of my wins are when the line was at -108+
                                Comment
                                • impper
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-11-10
                                  • 490

                                  #646
                                  At -105 on Pinny your edge is coming from crossing more valuable numbers, so -105 and -106 lines should only be bet later in the day.

                                  Valuable numbers to cross going either way:

                                  college (3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16)

                                  nba (2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10)

                                  You can get an edge crossing any 3 of these numbers with a -105 line. With a -106 line you can cross 2 of these numbers and one bad number and still get an edge. With a -110 line at pinny you can cross bad numbers and end up not getting an edge, or a very small one.
                                  Comment
                                  • jolmscheid
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-20-10
                                    • 3256

                                    #647
                                    Good Points impper....but I really think that if we can get a .5 point in OUR favor, then you know that our book will move towards Pinny right?? I get what you are saying, but if we can get a .5 point in our favor for free, why not take it???


                                    Lots of plays tonight guys in both NBA and NCAAB...got my whole bank going tonight....did mine early cuz I gotta run but I only did games where my book was off of Pinny's OR if Pinny was leaning -108+.......we will see how tonight goes....last night I did my plays a lot later so we will see how it pans out doing them 2.5 hours earlier....
                                    Comment
                                    • impper
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-11-10
                                      • 490

                                      #648
                                      Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                      Good Points impper....but I really think that if we can get a .5 point in OUR favor, then you know that our book will move towards Pinny right?? I get what you are saying, but if we can get a .5 point in our favor for free, why not take it???


                                      Lots of plays tonight guys in both NBA and NCAAB...got my whole bank going tonight....did mine early cuz I gotta run but I only did games where my book was off of Pinny's OR if Pinny was leaning -108+.......we will see how tonight goes....last night I did my plays a lot later so we will see how it pans out doing them 2.5 hours earlier....
                                      You may be right that it's worth calculating. Let's look at some examples.

                                      Pinny NCAABK -5 1.909, +5 2.000, book 5.5: we buy fav down to 2.5, there's a negative edge. the free half point is buying the dog up at 5.5 to 8.5. There is still a negative edge.

                                      Pinny NCAABK -7 1.909, +7 2.000, book 7.5: we buy fav down to 4.5, theres a big negative edge at a price of -163. We can buy the fav up to 10.5 though. Price is -184.5 for +10.5 using those numbers for a .67% edge. So we get a small edge by "taking" the half point. however, what if pinny later moves to -7.5 -1.952, +7.5 1.952? Now a bet at +10.5 has a price of -177, so an edge of -.75%.

                                      That's my point, the book is anticipating the pinny line to move, and should that happen (it most likely will) we're making a poor bet. That's why I tend to ignore when our book is giving us a half point that is favored the wrong way. If they're giving a half point that is also favored (example: pinny -7 2.000, +7 1.909, and our book is offering +7.5) then I take the bet as it's hugely favored with an edge of 4%.
                                      Comment
                                      • Ras1112
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 09-04-09
                                        • 241

                                        #649
                                        I agree that .5 point gap doesn't give us any edge @ -110/100 at Pinny.
                                        What i was asking it's when Pinny has it @ 3 (-105/105) and my book has it @3.5(-110/110), strong edge already there is no need to calculate but if it's too early in the day should it be the play on not. It was hit and miss for me so far. Sometimes line stays like that for hours Western Carolina, North Carolina and Fresno St were there all day yesterday (all losers) but S.DaKotaSt & Oral Roberts (winners).
                                        Other time books will catch up very quickly. Any ideas what we should look at is addition to spread and/or line in these situations?
                                        Comment
                                        • impper
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-11-10
                                          • 490

                                          #650
                                          Originally posted by Ras1112
                                          I agree that .5 point gap doesn't give us any edge @ -110/100 at Pinny.
                                          What i was asking it's when Pinny has it @ 3 (-105/105) and my book has it @3.5(-110/110), strong edge already there is no need to calculate but if it's too early in the day should it be the play on not. It was hit and miss for me so far. Sometimes line stays like that for hours Western Carolina, North Carolina and Fresno St were there all day yesterday (all losers) but S.DaKotaSt & Oral Roberts (winners).
                                          Other time books will catch up very quickly. Any ideas what we should look at is addition to spread and/or line in these situations?
                                          For me I'd either not play it or see how big the edge is using the calculator and buying points. If you play it you're taking on some risk, as there are 3 scenarios: The line remains stable, the line moves in your favor, or the line moves against you. From a purely mathematical standpoint I'd imagine that it is a good bet to make. This is one instance though that I believe having some knowledge of the game and how people will bet is important. If the favorite is a public play, then it'll probably move to 3.5 at some point, or if you believe the line should be bigger it could move to 3.5. Your instinct in this situation can serve you well--you'll be a loser betting on instinct, but most of us can at least gather enough information to make an informed decision about whether the line will or will not move in either direction.
                                          Comment
                                          • daddyv
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 10-05-10
                                            • 241

                                            #651
                                            ive been goin through the thread n from what i could gather u guys look for a positive edge and bet x units on it using the 1+(edge*1.41)
                                            i have a couple of questions why do u buy 3 pts? is it just to get a higher edge or is that a part of the system that has been successful for u guys?
                                            also i was wondering why pinnacle is used as a reference?

                                            this system has obviously worked for u guys...i was just wondering how u changed ur bankroll management cos playin so many games at once obviously requires a large roll or significantly cutting down the size of ur units

                                            thnx for all ur comments n insights hopefully i see some +ve results tracking it cos i cant wait to jump onto this
                                            Comment
                                            • Ras1112
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 09-04-09
                                              • 241

                                              #652
                                              Thanks for input, having knowledge of the game/team and/or anticipation always helps. On the other hand as we all know sometimes the way public bet doesn't have anything to do with whatever way move will be and now we are going into whole different discussion about "smart/sharp" money, RLM, public%, etc.
                                              Comment
                                              • impper
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-11-10
                                                • 490

                                                #653
                                                Originally posted by Ras1112
                                                Thanks for input, having knowledge of the game/team and/or anticipation always helps. On the other hand as we all know sometimes the way public bet doesn't have anything to do with whatever way move will be and now we are going into whole different discussion about "smart/sharp" money, RLM, public%, etc.
                                                i think it's worth considering all of these things, even if the conclusion we come to is that sometimes there isn't enough information accounted for in this system to suggest a play
                                                Comment
                                                • Ras1112
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 09-04-09
                                                  • 241

                                                  #654
                                                  Originally posted by impper
                                                  i think it's worth considering all of these things, even if the conclusion we come to is that sometimes there isn't enough information accounted for in this system to suggest a play
                                                  Only problem I see so far "all these things" require to work with different parameters and on several time tables, so I just don't want to overwhelm snap decision making possess by throwing everything together.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • chilidog
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                    • 10305

                                                    #655
                                                    I've never taken anything into consideration except the pinnacle line/spread, and my local's line/spread, but the past 4 days have been a yo-yo. I do like the idea of ignoring games where your book is anticipating that pinny will move the line, and is a 1/2 point worse than pinny's.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ras1112
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 09-04-09
                                                      • 241

                                                      #656
                                                      Originally posted by chilidog
                                                      I've never taken anything into consideration except the pinnacle line/spread, and my local's line/spread, but the past 4 days have been a yo-yo. I do like the idea of ignoring games where your book is anticipating that pinny will move the line, and is a 1/2 point worse than pinny's.
                                                      I'm with on this chilli don't want to make it more complicated that it should be, whoever developed the system tried to take into consideration as much as he/she could, that is why u were so excited about results just couple days ago
                                                      When it comes to spread discrepancies between Pinny and our books, every case should be treated differently, on case by case bases, sometimes we can benefit from that and others don't, I'll look at it as potential bonus.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • chilidog
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-05-09
                                                        • 10305

                                                        #657
                                                        Yah, I'm going to keep doing it like I've been doing it; the same way that Cheme started it. Taking pinny's line and his local's line, running all numbers, and doing it as close to gametime as possible. No need to complicate things. It's worked for over 2,000 games doing it this way. I have to keep remembering that, heh.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • impper
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-11-10
                                                          • 490

                                                          #658
                                                          I ran the games today at noon and all the lines have moved in my favor so far except for one. There are about 10 games where I'm up by 1 or 1.5 points, so here's hoping today's a good day. I don't have time to run the numbers before gametime today so I'm looking forward to seeing how you do, cheme. Good luck
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chilidog
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-05-09
                                                            • 10305

                                                            #659
                                                            How many bets did you end up placing today, impper?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mrkron
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-28-09
                                                              • 565

                                                              #660
                                                              I don't always follow what you guys are doing and I don't hit anywhere near the percentage you do but I am still making a profit. Need to refine my math skills
                                                              Comment
                                                              • impper
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-11-10
                                                                • 490

                                                                #661
                                                                ah sorry chili, i called you cheme haha

                                                                I'm on a public connection right now so prefer not to log into my book and don't have access to my sheet, but it was somewhere in the range of 25 games.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • chilidog
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 04-05-09
                                                                  • 10305

                                                                  #662
                                                                  np, I have 7 plays for the games starting in 30 minutes (cbb/nba). I'll start on the rest of the games in a minute.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Anpes
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 12-01-10
                                                                    • 2

                                                                    #663
                                                                    how come you guys stopped posting your plays? I've been following!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jolmscheid
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 02-20-10
                                                                      • 3256

                                                                      #664
                                                                      Impper I don't get what you mean when a book is anticipating pinny to move a line...I look at it as pinny being the leader so how can a rec book anticipate what lobby will do? I mean the calc doesn't lie...if wr are getting a free half point I do not understand why its a bad bet I guess. I mean there is always a chance the line will move against us so isn't getting a free half point good for us? BTW I only bet edges of .75%+ and only if pinny is leaning at -108+ to one side or if my book is off on its line
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • chilidog
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 04-05-09
                                                                        • 10305

                                                                        #665
                                                                        I think what he's talking about is like this:

                                                                        Right now, pinny has:

                                                                        Hawaii +5 -109
                                                                        Cal Poly SLO -5 -101

                                                                        Betus has:

                                                                        Hawaii +4.5 -110
                                                                        Cal Poly SLO -4.5 -110

                                                                        Now yes, you are getting a 1/2 point in your favor for Cal Poly SLO, but pinny is favoring Hawaii +5 to win, hence the higher juice. That is when the 1/2 point is going against you. Now, if your book were giving you Hawaii +5.5, then that 1/2 point is in your favor, and it'd be a favorable bet.
                                                                        Comment
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