What stats are the most important in betting college basketball?

spud58 · 07-20-10, 10:37 PM

field goal %

CrimsonQueen · 07-21-10, 02:47 PM

Thanks spud58. Any other takers? Or do people here just randomly pick their plays based on gut feelings and hunches? I know it's off season, but come on!

LT Profits · 07-21-10, 07:08 PM

Adjusted PPP starting January 1. Raw FG% means nothing without considering opponents.

2daBank · 07-21-10, 07:18 PM

agree with LT.......i really prefer like opponents when available...however im no kind of model guy, i use some numbers but a lot of my capping is recording and watching every game possible...... think defensive fg%, rebounding, Strength of schedule, would all be things you would put some serious weight into.....

Fishhead · 07-21-10, 07:18 PM

Points per minute divided by TOUCHES(see Sharpsportsbetting)

EDDIE MONEY LINE · 07-21-10, 07:32 PM

rebounding in college hoops is huge, fg% and how the team plays home/road

home underdogs are huge in conference play

jjgold · 07-21-10, 07:45 PM

Filed goal percentages
turnovers

2daBank · 07-21-10, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Filed goal percentages
turnovers

turnovers and turnovers caused is a very good 1......

icsky3 · 07-21-10, 10:43 PM

I'm guessing pick the team with the best % to win the game....ATS of course.

sharpcat · 07-21-10, 11:26 PM

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

Half point calculator is a useful tool for estimating your edge. Simply look at the push probability for each point you beat and that will help you figure your edge.

EX. on a spread of -7 (-110) and you get -6 (-110) the no-vig line suggests -7 at 50/50 your -6 would have a 54.03% win probability because the push probability of 7 is 4.03% and you got -6. So if you were able to get -6 at -110 you would have a 3.15% edge.

% per point is different for each point depending on the push probability for that spread.

Brock Landers · 07-21-10, 11:27 PM

Home court record...Home Courts are KEY in College Hoops

pats3peat · 07-21-10, 11:33 PM

good thread
Also when taking stats into consideration you can probably eliminate a few Weaker opponents that are skewing the stats. like blowouts. but does anyone know an easy calculator that you could like take a teams PPG but eliminate a few results?

curious · 07-22-10, 12:03 AM

I killed the books in NCAAB for the last three years using offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. Using the pythagorean theorem you predict how each team will perform TODAY, then you match this prediction against the spread that the books are offering and look for teams where there the spread the books are offering is off in your favor. There are a few teams and leagues you have to stay away from. Like the Ivy league, those games are totally unpredictable, and the west coast teams.

The best plays are when the prediction model is saying that a team should be a fav but the books are offering + spreads on that team. You play those teams X on the ML and 2X on the spread.

You also have to look at how a team has been playing lately. Year before last you could have made a big pile of money taking Indiana State at the end of the year. They started looking like they were pulling it together when they lost to Northern Iowa 85-84. Then a month later they went on a 6-1 (SU) streak. They were big dogs in all of those games.

LT Profits · 07-22-10, 01:48 AM

The beauty of adjusted PPP is that just about everything mentioned in this thread affects it, and the convenience of it all being rolled into one neat number at kenpom can't be beat.

eidolon · 07-22-10, 05:06 AM

average and range of how much they win or lose by.
how much hype do you they get from the media.
how good is their coach (mainly during tournament)

plays · 07-22-10, 05:18 AM

How much beer they drink before the game especially on the weekends

curious · 07-22-10, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by eidolon

average and range of how much they win or lose by.
how much hype do you they get from the media.
how good is their coach (mainly during tournament)

one edge that has been exploitable the past few years is a team getting a spread that they have never been given before. Like a team who normally is -2 through -15 is suddenly -25. And they have never had a spread like that before. Somebody in here was tracking this the last time I was active in here.

jbrent95 · 07-22-10, 12:48 PM

Semester Finals..... I made good $$$ last 3 season going against teams during and after finals week.

will2survive · 07-22-10, 12:53 PM

I ususally go for the game where a lesser level team with a great record goes up against the home team and the home team is underdog by 2 or 3---I take the team with the better record.

example(I don't remember if these teams were good)----- say Evansville is 16-5 vs. Drake who is 8-13---Drake is at home and underdog by 2 or 3----I take the favorite---I love games like that

CrimsonQueen · 07-22-10, 03:54 PM

This thread has turned into a great place for info! Thanks a lot guys, keep it up!!

jessetopolski · 07-23-10, 01:20 AM

home team dog on any nat tel game. just like mnf football home team dog

Himalaya · 07-23-10, 05:14 AM

Offensive and Defensive efficiency, and possessions per game, strength of schedule.

curious · 07-23-10, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Himalaya

Offensive and Defensive efficiency, and possessions per game, strength of schedule.

offensive and defensive efficiency? strength of schedule? are you on crack?

LT Profits · 07-23-10, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by curious

offensive and defensive efficiency? strength of schedule? are you on crack?

efficiency is another word for PPP

LT Profits · 07-23-10, 02:09 PM

In fact, Himalaya defined Adjusted PPP: offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency adjusted for SOS (strength of schedule)

CrimsonQueen · 07-23-10, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

Half point calculator is a useful tool for estimating your edge. Simply look at the push probability for each point you beat and that will help you figure your edge.

EX. on a spread of -7 (-110) and you get -6 (-110) the no-vig line suggests -7 at 50/50 your -6 would have a 54.03% win probability because the push probability of 7 is 4.03% and you got -6. So if you were able to get -6 at -110 you would have a 3.15% edge.

% per point is different for each point depending on the push probability for that spread.

Let me see if I understand this concept, because I'm not sure that I do...

Ex. spread of -4 and I cap the line at -6 with no vig. So... I'd add the %'s 3.57% + 3.95%?
= 7.52% edge... but at -110, I'd have a 6.83% edge? (I also don't know where you came up with the 3.15% edge, after saying 4.03%, but then at -110, wouldn't it be 3.66%? and not 3.15%?

)

Thanks so much for the help!

sharpcat · 07-23-10, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by CrimsonQueen

Let me see if I understand this concept, because I'm not sure that I do...

Ex. spread of -4 and I cap the line at -6 with no vig. So... I'd add the %'s 3.57% + 3.95%?
= 7.52% edge... but at -110, I'd have a 6.83% edge? (I also don't know where you came up with the 3.15% edge, after saying 4.03%, but then at -110, wouldn't it be 3.66%? and not 3.15%?

)

Thanks so much for the help!

at -4 your estimated win probability would be 57.52% if your model "accurately" suggests -6.

Edge= 1-(win probability/implied win probability at price taken)= 1-(57.52/52.38)= 1-1.0981= 9.81% edge.

You are misunderstanding what your edge is

your edge is not equal to the difference in win probabilities, your edge is your theoretical hold it is what you expect to profit overtime should you be able to make that wager an infinite number of times.

CrimsonQueen · 07-23-10, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

at -4 your estimated win probability would be 57.52% if your model "accurately" suggests -6.

Edge= 1-(win probability/implied win probability at price taken)= 1-(57.52/52.38)= 1-1.0981= 9.81% edge.

You are misunderstanding what your edge is

your edge is not equal to the difference in win probabilities, your edge is your theoretical hold it is what you expect to profit overtime should you be able to make that wager an infinite number of times.

Thanks so much sharpcat!

I get it now!

But what if it is a half a point? Do you add half the % of the next push probability?
IE. line = -4 and cap the line at -5.5 so I add the 3.57% + 1.98% = 55.55% to win; and thus, 1-(55.55/52.38) = 6.05% edge?

DiggityDaggityDo · 07-23-10, 11:25 PM

Become friends with the local small team players. By become friends I mean hook them up with coke and whores. Do this every Tuesday and Friday. Then bet the other team every Wed and Sat. Easy as pie. Paying for coke and whore is small time when you are a big time better. Works every time.

curious · 07-24-10, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

efficiency is another word for PPP

yes i know that, i was just messing with him because his "advice" was something that you and I already said.

I am a bit worried that i said something that you agreed with though.

curious · 07-24-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by CrimsonQueen

Let me see if I understand this concept, because I'm not sure that I do...

Ex. spread of -4 and I cap the line at -6 with no vig. So... I'd add the %'s 3.57% + 3.95%?
= 7.52% edge... but at -110, I'd have a 6.83% edge? (I also don't know where you came up with the 3.15% edge, after saying 4.03%, but then at -110, wouldn't it be 3.66%? and not 3.15%?

)

Thanks so much for the help!

Ganchrow has warned several times not to trust the half point calculator for anything more than 1/2 to 1 1/2 points (since Ganchrow wrote the 1/2 point calculator I'll take his word for it.).

2daBank · 07-24-10, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Become friends with the local small team players. By become friends I mean hook them up with coke and whores. Do this every Tuesday and Friday. Then bet the other team every Wed and Sat. Easy as pie. Paying for coke and whore is small time when you are a big time better. Works every time.

i have a funny ass story about some of the rams D-line and a few other players, back from the days when Hardgrove was playing with us......he used to date a friend of mines sister and lets just say we would be getting fukked up on Sat nights before quite a few early sunday games

2daBank · 07-24-10, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by curious

I killed the books in NCAAB for the last three years using offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. Using the pythagorean theorem you predict how each team will perform TODAY, then you match this prediction against the spread that the books are offering and look for teams where there the spread the books are offering is off in your favor. There are a few teams and leagues you have to stay away from. Like the Ivy league, those games are totally unpredictable, and the west coast teams.

The best plays are when the prediction model is saying that a team should be a fav but the books are offering + spreads on that team. You play those teams X on the ML and 2X on the spread.

You also have to look at how a team has been playing lately. Year before last you could have made a big pile of money taking Indiana State at the end of the year. They started looking like they were pulling it together when they lost to Northern Iowa 85-84. Then a month later they went on a 6-1 (SU) streak. They were big dogs in all of those games.

like i said earlier in the thread Curious im certainly not a model guy and dont really know the 1st things about them but i bet so many small dogs a year that win outright its not even funny...I cant wait for college hoops

curious · 07-24-10, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

like i said earlier in the thread Curious im certainly not a model guy and dont really know the 1st things about them but i bet so many small dogs a year that win outright its not even funny...I cant wait for college hoops

It is certainly easy enough to find good value in dogs if you just look at who they have played and how they played them. That's how I found Indiana State.

I'll never forget two years ago getting Maryland as a dog early in the season a few times. The books must have been on crack.