What stats are the most important in betting college basketball?

[2daBank]

The beauty of adjusted PPP is that just about everything mentioned in this thread affects it, and the convenience of it all being rolled into one neat number at kenpom can't be beat.

dont know what i would do w/o Kenpom....

[CrimsonQueen]

I do fully agree that I don't know what I'd do with out Kenpom, but I would essentially like to do exactly what he does... only be able to test it all out on my own and come up with my own numbers, and be able to back test and adjust different stat percentage weights to see what stats when adjusted to a different percentage weight effects wins ATS the most.

[Waz]

I do fully agree that I don't know what I'd do with out Kenpom, but I would essentially like to do exactly what he does... only be able to test it all out on my own and come up with my own numbers, and be able to back test and adjust different stat percentage weights to see what stats when adjusted to a different percentage weight effects wins ATS the most.

The nice thing about the Off-Rating and Def-Rating is that they incorporate everything on both ends of the floor already. I would imagine the effects of pulling out individual components would be incomplete and less predictive. Am I missing something? I tweak the numbers based on soft data rather than hard data.

[ThisComputer]

i think its ppg/pag

[Fischnasty]

onner one of my systems says nevada, the other says cal so i dont know

[Snowball]

Not saying it's the most important, but FT % is worth considering
especially if you bet dogs. For dogs to cover they usually need a high FT %.

[Domer]

PPP is a starting point.

also, be very wary of anyone telling you what will work, because if it does work, they have 0 incentive to share it with you unless they're just flat out dumb.

[hubie69]

Good stuff here. Last year I had gone off of a mix of FT %, FG%, rebounding, and a few other stats.

[curious]

PPP is a starting point.

also, be very wary of anyone telling you what will work, because if it does work, they have 0 incentive to share it with you unless they're just flat out dumb.

People have called me a lot of things on this forum, dumb has never been one of them. I share things that work on here all the time. That's kind of why we come here.

[Mr. Jones]

The math used these days is sometimes a bit beyond my comprehension. It has changed significantly over the years and some of it may be over the top. I don't know...maybe and maybe not.

The overall value of home dog in a "majority of spots" remains constant over the decades however and is the norm.

I start there and apply variables as seen fit from there. I try to identify those games that fall into the "majority of spots" as I call it above and that do not deviate from that norm for whatever reason. Those reasons vary. [ie. injuries, lack of true home court adv., etc]. Very simplistic, I know, but it works.

[curious]

The math used these days is sometimes a bit beyond my comprehension. It has changed significantly over the years and some of it may be over the top. I don't know...maybe and maybe not.

The overall value of home dog in a "majority of spots" remains constant over the decades however and is the norm.

I start there and apply variables as seen fit from there. I try to identify those games that fall into the "majority of spots" as I call it above and that do not deviate from that norm for whatever reason. Those reasons vary. [ie. injuries, lack of true home court adv., etc]. Very simplistic, I know, but it works.

What does "majority of spots" mean?

[70kgman]

Before you look at any stats, It is always important to start with...
* Current # of home/away games
* Current SOS

Then...
* FG%
* FG% against
* rebound average margin
* 3 pt%
* injuries

[BettingWizard]

free throw shooting is an often overlooked stat.......always a bitch when your team misses 1 and 1's

[Wrecktangle]

Any interest in swapping your NCAA BB data set for one of mine in another sport? I'm talking boxscores here.

Thanx.

[jjgold]

Shooting percentages
Turnovers

[Mr. Jones]

What does "majority of spots" mean?

I use the term "majority of spots" to illustrate that the home dog, generally speaking, means value more often than not. That is my opinion at least.

I go from there to determine which of those home dogs is true value as some obviously will not be. Different variables will then apply as I noted above.

Basically when I look at the day's card this is where I start. I will first look at all home dogs. Each is a potential play until eliminated. Just my starting off point.

[opie1988]

You guys definitely have some great ideas. I never realized how blind I really was until reading these threads. My biggest problem is that I've always been way above average with verbal skills.....but just average at math skills. Its not my strong suit. These posts make me wonder if a guy without serious math skills can ever expect to be anything but a square??

[roasthawg]

I like Dean Oliver's four factors for any level of basketball.

[CrimsonQueen]

You guys definitely have some great ideas. I never realized how blind I really was until reading these threads. My biggest problem is that I've always been way above average with verbal skills.....but just average at math skills. Its not my strong suit. These posts make me wonder if a guy without serious math skills can ever expect to be anything but a square??

I don't want to say "yes, if you can't use math you're a square"...but..............if you can't use math, you're a square

I mean, it comes into play in absolutely every regard of betting... from the first second you want to place a bet, you have to look at the odds they are giving you, which is math. For instance, say Duke is at home playing a crappy ivy league school and the spread is -5(-110) for Duke. That's an amazing bet with tons of +EV probably. But what if the spread was -5(-300)? Now how do you determine if this is still a good bet?

In theory, you could be a long term winner if you were REALLY good at analyzing qualitative data rather than quantitative. Perhaps.

[OMGRandyJackson]

I killed the books in NCAAB for the last three years using offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. Using the pythagorean theorem you predict how each team will perform TODAY, then you match this prediction against the spread that the books are offering and look for teams where there the spread the books are offering is off in your favor. There are a few teams and leagues you have to stay away from. Like the Ivy league, those games are totally unpredictable, and the west coast teams.

The best plays are when the prediction model is saying that a team should be a fav but the books are offering + spreads on that team. You play those teams X on the ML and 2X on the spread.

You also have to look at how a team has been playing lately. Year before last you could have made a big pile of money taking Indiana State at the end of the year. They started looking like they were pulling it together when they lost to Northern Iowa 85-84. Then a month later they went on a 6-1 (SU) streak. They were big dogs in all of those games.

I am newer to math lol, can you do an example of your pythagorean theorem technique? Thanks!

[scratbandit]

I can't wait for the season to start man it is exciting..

[curious]

I am newer to math lol, can you do an example of your pythagorean theorem technique? Thanks!

Its pretty simple. Go to ken's forum. You just click, on the team. You will see Ken's pythagorean rating. Then match up against the actual odds. Start with that.

I'm very busy this weekend, if you don't know this site you can ask someone on here.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

These are the basics. You need to do a little reading to figure out how to use the numbers.

[Faustman]

Good info in this thread. Thanks guys!

[jjgold]

College basketball actually finishes off most players and puts then in gamblers anonymous

[Flying Dutchman]

College basketball actually finishes off most players and puts then in gamblers anonymous

JJ, we need to collect all your nuggets and publish them as JJ's Joke Book...

[Brossy10]

the hokes will win the NCAA tourny this year mark my words

[Goldman]

you should better know the teams and then look into stats

[scratbandit]

Very interesting idea and spot on...

[scratbandit]

Some very good information shared here...