Starting to feel better about NCAAB second 10 day trial. It isn't picking very many games. But it is winning. Last nights picks were just 2 out of 38 games. But the both won 3-0 so far on this round. I will post NCAAB picks later today. Just got busy yesterday. NBA second 10 trial is 3-5 right now. I will keep working.
Went 1-3 Last night. One easy win... one disasterous loss... And a couple that I felt were bad beats... Nonetheless, 4-3 not changing the model because I watched the games. Washington St. shot 22% from the field in the first ten minutes and 0% from 3 point range. Disastrous. They still won by 7 but didn't cover the spread.
FAIRFIELD crushed it. The algorithm I am using for Away -... is hitting 91% but rarely chooses a game. It bets less than 1% of the games. FAIRFIELD just happened to meet the tight criteria. They were Fairfield -4 and they won by 24. My over bets are tough too.
Just saw the lines are published... It takes me approximately 3 minutes to download all the data and then run my program. Unfortunately, none of my best algorithms have any published bets today. I am not sure how to take that. Is that a good thing? No OVERS, No AWAY -, No Away+. The other three algorithms aren't bad (Unders, Home+, Home-) but I need to work on them especially Home -... even though the results aren't bad. Here they are... I do like the under bets. FOR MODELING purposes.... whatever the end of regulation scores are... that is how they are recorded in my model. OT is disregarded. I don't care what happens in OT.
Algorithms crushed it today. 6-2 overall. A couple of close ones but I watched the games. Algorithms seem to be working 11-5 overall. ALL MY ALGORITHMS ARE BACK TESTED. So if they are picking winners moving forward, they also picked winners in the past.
Cautiously Optimistic... 11-5 though is pretty solid. The only game I plan to exam is the WVU Houston game. I was off. Western Illinois game was perfect in every direction.
Optimistic for Sure... Tomorrows games... I am publishing all of them... to show you what my computer picked. Out of 17 Games... it didn't pick a single bet. I am going to stay my course.
why are these considered 'Too Close' to make a bet? the 1st game has an algo spread of 37, and Vegas is -21. Even assuming 6 points more for W. Virginia and 6 less for Houston, its still 24. 2nd game is similar at the +/- 6 level. Seems very cautious, and then you run into the situation of not having anything to bet. There was an article on Medium a few weeks ago showing that some academics came up with a model that made sense and probably was legit in practice (there's always the "better in theory than in practice" issue with these sports betting models), but the # of bets was tiny. Extrapolated for a year, even $1000 bets would have generated a smallish net profit (I think like $40,000), not worth the time for a IT person in today's job market. The alternative is being part of (the 'brains') of a syndicate that can bet $10,000 or $100,000, but then you really are limited to betting in Vegas and going thru all the hassles that Billy Walters had to (sometimes moving the line in the 'wrong' direction on purpose in order to make a larger bet later, using runners to place bets). And of course a day of 8 losing bets (going to happen, 8 losses in a row at the blackjack table is common) means a loss potentially of $500,000. I wonder if Walters ill-conceived foray into insider trading wasn't due to some gambling losses, and he was looking to recoup some money quickly.
I understand your question... I will try to address but I am running out the door right this second... I want to post tonight's games first. I appreciate your interest.
So back to your original question... The projected totals and points are only one part of the process. What I believe is nice about my system is that I generate my own projected points completely separate from Vegas. Often, my projected points provide valuable information. I then apply addition filters and test the algorithms over past data.
For instance, I look at all the Home - games and the projected totals. I look at examine previous results vs. my spreads and over/unders and Vegas over/unders. By adding additional filters, I try to widdle down the amount of games that my system bets at a higher percentage rate.
So on the Houston game, there must have been a match up issue that told the system not to bet the game even though the projected points clearly show that you should. I can't wait to see an Over bet or an Away - come up again. They are hitting North of 85%. I am going to look hard at the Houston game. The under really wasn't a great bet.
I examined the Houston game and I found an element or attribute of the game that helped me change the algorithm. I track 8 offensive statistics and four defensive statistics. In that specific game, all the four defensive statistics of WVU had a positive z score(which means they are bad) and all of 8 offensive statistics of Houston had a positive z-score. If I assign a point to each statistics... the match up produced 12 points total just from the Houston O vs. WVU D. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to pick and Under bet if there is a potential of a blowout.
So I added that filter. A small change to the algorithm. Then I updated the previous games this season and it had no effect. There was no other scenario that the system picked the under while you had a 12 point matchup differential. That is what I do daily.
In the most recent trial, I have added two small filters. I constantly update. With these updates, the last few days would have been 11-3. It is currently 11-5... but the model is better. Again, any update I make must be tested over the previous 1500 games or so.
I just looked at the Houston Baptist vs. Texas AM CC to see if the under would be eliminated. That match up only produce 10 points out of potentially 12 so I am keeping both bets.
Dave
I hear you about only betting a certain amount of games. However, right now, I am averaging about 10% of the matches for College and about 20% for NBA. NBA is right at breakeven. Hasn't really produced anything.
I am thinking about producing two models. One that has additional games at a lower percentage and one that has fewer games at a higher percentage. I guess we will see.
It only takes me about 5 minutes to run both basketball models a day now. Then I spend a 4-5 hours on the weekend analyzing. It's fun now because it doesn't take me that long.
you might see if Walter's book is available at a local library , he apparently gives out quite a bit of info on his thinking (and specifics) in a 50 page section (sample below). It's indisputable he made a lot of money sports betting, although the Government said he profited from insider trading over numerous years (with the un-sexy stock Dean Foods) to the tune of $43 million profit. They do tend to exaggerate to build a case, and he apparently was ordered to pay back $25 million.
“The repeat cycle is then in place—the new power ratings are combined with game-specific factors (step 2), home-field advantage (step 3), and an assessment of injuries (step 4) to determine the next game prediction (step 5). This is shown in step 8.” “If Temperature is 10 or below Degrees Fahrenheit: +1.75 Home.” “In that example, the True Game Performance Lever is 14 (the net score) + the old power rating of the opponent (-4.2), and the net injuries (4.7-6.5=-1.8).” “As you’ll see in the chart, 3 is relatively more valuable than 11, 12, and 13 combined, which are only worth 6 percent total.” “Again, remain disciplined.”
Take a look at the final results of the Houston Christian .... Texas A&M CC game. I had it 83-61... actual 81-59. Both bets won. I may be full of it... but damn are my results rolling in.
13-5... now... this round. And I am predicting scores within a couple of points.
Btw... system had Michigan winning by 4 very similar to Vegas.... had the point total at 46... Everyone was betting the Over. My system said stay away from both bets. If I were going to bet without my system... I would have taken the over.
I added a bet type... I am going to start parlaying certain games using the ML. The payout will not be great... but I wanted to try it for a while and see if I am profitable. The Parlay ML means take the favorite and ML.
On fire ... lately... 6-0(last night)... 4 were ML bets so... they aren't a big deal because the payout was weak. I'm parlaying all my ML bets together and betting the singles straight. I'm only using NBA ML bets until it becomes more consistent. My college bets are below... my Parlay will be Miami(College) ML and Clippers ML. So two bets and a 2 game ML Parlay.
1-1 on Single Bets... Lost Parlay because Miami got upset at home... All good... Rare bets today... Over and Home+ almost never come up. Over hits 85% of the time. Home+ has an extremely small sample size but hasn't lost. 100%. I guess we will see. 16-6 on Single Bets.
I’ve been following along with your system. Wanted James Madison but couldn’t pull the trigger. My own system has been profitable but if it stumbles then I will follow your system. Thanks for sharing Dave.
I appreciate it. It feels like when I post... it falls on deaf ears. It looks like I went 1-2... Currently, 17-8. I will look into the Monmouth Over bet... they weren't even close. All the Parlay ML won... and I teamed it up with a ML on NBA which won. Both my NBA bets won... so it wasn't a terrible night... But again, Monmouth wasn't close... I will look into it.
I appreciate the nod... it has only taken me 13-15 years to get here. I am not sure I am there yet... but it is nice that someone is actually watching. Everyone has a system... and of course everyone is successful... killing it. My system produces the numbers... and yes I will continue to adjust along the way... but when it is working and as I watch the games it makes sense. I leave it alone.
Again, I will look at the Monmouth game and see if I can find something. Yes both teams shot 30% or so from the field but the posessions were only 52 a piece. That alone... states a No on Over bet.
Encouragement is always needed... I am running 4 systems ... now 3 since college football is over... and working two jobs... and helping my son reach is doordash goal. He got $1500 for making 275 trips. A professional guy on youtube said the most he ever did was 30 trips in a day... in a torrential downpour... we did 31.
College basketball tomorrow should be interesting a BIG DAY!!!
Lost last night on spread bets... only 1 bet. I am Kennessaw St won by 3 ... spread was 7. Since my system seems to be hitting ... I am wondering whether I should round robin all my bets rather than just singling them. I have to think about it. See if the math makes sense. I am 17-9... but today is a big day and it has an Away - bet. My top category... GL. Dave
Based on past data... the bet of the day is Northern Kentucky.
Not sure what to think... 4-1 on single bets yesterday... so my current total is 21-10. So my Away - is my favorite category and that is the only one that didn't hit lol. I put $100 on it and lost.... that experiment didn't work... lol. However, I decided to parlay in a round robin all 9 games. I couldn't do VMI because Virginia won't let you bet on a Virginia team. I also clicked the wrong button on Oakland and them minus the spread... Nonetheless, all of my bets won. 9-0 yesterday using ML... 9-0...
It has been a long road... but I think I might have just beaten Vegas... I know... I have been told too many times that it can't be done. I'll gladly continue to post... I am not asking for a penny. Maybe you can donate 10% of your winnings to St. Jude. You want me to continue posting please let me know. Regardless, I am dialed in... profitable and ready for next fall.
I appreciate the feedback... I am now trying to work on a solid betting strategy. Money management as we all know is crucial. So this my strategy moving forward.
Assuming each ML bet my system comes up with averages around 90%... which it seems to. Yes, the payout is -600 sometimes -2100... but nonetheless... if you can team up a parlay to generate 30% on your money consistently that is better than Wall Street.
Regardless... if each single bet is .90*.9*.9*.9*.9... five bets... that still teams you up 60% chance of winning those individual parlays. At six games it drops to 53%. So plan to bet all parlay bets as round robins if they are five games or less and straight parlays if they are six games or more.
In addition, I will bet all the single bets at 3% of my bankroll. The rest I will leave in cash. 21-12... lost another one.
I would normally team it up with my NBA picks which I haven't been publishing. They are starting to hit. I will restart publishing them by early next week.
I will be parlaying SMU ML with BYU ML and then taking BYU spread bet separately.
Only 3% of bankroll per bet... It turns out I missed 3 bets on last Saturday... all winners. My system had it set to only analysis 110 games at one time... about 130 played so it didn't even pick up the games.
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Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...
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