1. #1
    usma1992
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    Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

    I will only post picks to make it easier to read. Unless you want me to post everything, I gladly will.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    9:00 PM CHARLOTTE 59 SMU 77 136 -8.5 134.0 Home Minus Too Close

  2. #2
    usma1992
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    Starting to feel better about NCAAB second 10 day trial. It isn't picking very many games. But it is winning. Last nights picks were just 2 out of 38 games. But the both won 3-0 so far on this round. I will post NCAAB picks later today. Just got busy yesterday. NBA second 10 trial is 3-5 right now. I will keep working.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:30 PM UT-CHATTANOOGA 72 SAMFORD 87 160 -8 160.5 Home Minus Too Close
    9:00 PM INDIANA 64 NEBRASKA 77 141 -5.5 151.0 Home Minus Too Close

  3. #3
    usma1992
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    Tonight's Bets...
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM C CONN ST 82 STONEHILL 66 148 6 141.0 Away Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM CAMPBELL 79 N CAROLINA A&T 66 145 2.5 142.5 Away Minus Too Close
    10:00 PM CS-FULLERTON 60 UC-IRVINE 79 139 -11.5 137.0 Home Minus Too Close
    11:00 PM OREGON ST 58 WASHINGTON ST 76 134 -11 134.5 Home Minus Too Close

  4. #4
    usma1992
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    Went 1-3 Last night. One easy win... one disasterous loss... And a couple that I felt were bad beats... Nonetheless, 4-3 not changing the model because I watched the games. Washington St. shot 22% from the field in the first ten minutes and 0% from 3 point range. Disastrous. They still won by 7 but didn't cover the spread.

    Only one bet tonight.

    Fairfield -4.

    Dave

  5. #5
    usma1992
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    FAIRFIELD crushed it. The algorithm I am using for Away -... is hitting 91% but rarely chooses a game. It bets less than 1% of the games. FAIRFIELD just happened to meet the tight criteria. They were Fairfield -4 and they won by 24. My over bets are tough too.

    Just saw the lines are published... It takes me approximately 3 minutes to download all the data and then run my program. Unfortunately, none of my best algorithms have any published bets today. I am not sure how to take that. Is that a good thing? No OVERS, No AWAY -, No Away+. The other three algorithms aren't bad (Unders, Home+, Home-) but I need to work on them especially Home -... even though the results aren't bad. Here they are... I do like the under bets. FOR MODELING purposes.... whatever the end of regulation scores are... that is how they are recorded in my model. OT is disregarded. I don't care what happens in OT.
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    2:00 PM W VIRGINIA 46 HOUSTON 83 129 -21 135.0 Too Close Under
    3:00 PM TENNESSEE ST 64 MOREHEAD ST 79 143 -9 143.5 Home Minus Too Close
    4:00 PM VIRGINIA TECH 70 FLORIDA ST 73 144 1 144.0 Home Plus Too Close
    4:30 PM LINDENWOOD 61 W ILLINOIS 75 136 -8.5 136.0 Home Minus Under
    6:00 PM CAL BAPTIST 61 SEATTLE 73 134 -6.5 136.0 Home Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM SACRAMENTO ST 62 ST THOMAS (MN) 76 139 -9 132.0 Home Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM HAWAII 69 CS-NORTHRIDGE 74 143 2 146.5 Home Plus Too Close

  6. #6
    usma1992
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    Algorithms crushed it today. 6-2 overall. A couple of close ones but I watched the games. Algorithms seem to be working 11-5 overall. ALL MY ALGORITHMS ARE BACK TESTED. So if they are picking winners moving forward, they also picked winners in the past.

    Cautiously Optimistic... 11-5 though is pretty solid. The only game I plan to exam is the WVU Houston game. I was off. Western Illinois game was perfect in every direction.

    Dave

  7. #7
    usma1992
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    Optimistic for Sure... Tomorrows games... I am publishing all of them... to show you what my computer picked. Out of 17 Games... it didn't pick a single bet. I am going to stay my course.
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    12:00 PM MICHIGAN 78 PENN ST 76 154 3.5 154.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM WICHITA ST 76 TEMPLE 74 150 1 149.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM MASSACHUSETTS 71 DAYTON 71 143 -8 148.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM NIAGARA 68 IONA 79 147 -9.5 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:30 PM IUPUI 59 YOUNGSTOWN ST 90 148 -18.5 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM MARIST 69 FAIRFIELD 69 139 -2.5 133.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM CANISIUS 78 RIDER 74 152 0 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM MOUNT ST MARYS 67 ST PETERS 64 131 -2 129.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM MANHATTAN 70 QUINNIPIAC 83 154 -10 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM TULSA 70 E CAROLINA 69 139 -4.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM INDIANA ST 80 N IOWA 73 153 2 156.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM S FLORIDA 75 UAB 74 149 -3.5 150.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM DRAKE 82 BELMONT 74 156 5.5 156.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM N KENTUCKY 69 CLEVELAND ST 80 149 -4 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    5:00 PM SMU 74 MEMPHIS 70 144 -7 149.0 Too Close Too Close
    5:30 PM MARYLAND 66 MINNESOTA 73 139 -1 135.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:30 PM MICHIGAN ST 73 NORTHWESTERN 68 141 2.5 135.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM CHICAGO ST 59 UTEP 72 130 -9.5 131.0 Too Close Too Close

  8. #8
    jamesrav
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    W VIRGINIA 46 HOUSTON 83 129 -21 135.0 Too Close

    IUPUI 59 YOUNGSTOWN ST 90 148 -18.5 147.5 Too Close

    why are these considered 'Too Close' to make a bet? the 1st game has an algo spread of 37, and Vegas is -21. Even assuming 6 points more for W. Virginia and 6 less for Houston, its still 24. 2nd game is similar at the +/- 6 level. Seems very cautious, and then you run into the situation of not having anything to bet. There was an article on Medium a few weeks ago showing that some academics came up with a model that made sense and probably was legit in practice (there's always the "better in theory than in practice" issue with these sports betting models), but the # of bets was tiny. Extrapolated for a year, even $1000 bets would have generated a smallish net profit (I think like $40,000), not worth the time for a IT person in today's job market. The alternative is being part of (the 'brains') of a syndicate that can bet $10,000 or $100,000, but then you really are limited to betting in Vegas and going thru all the hassles that Billy Walters had to (sometimes moving the line in the 'wrong' direction on purpose in order to make a larger bet later, using runners to place bets). And of course a day of 8 losing bets (going to happen, 8 losses in a row at the blackjack table is common) means a loss potentially of $500,000. I wonder if Walters ill-conceived foray into insider trading wasn't due to some gambling losses, and he was looking to recoup some money quickly.

  9. #9
    usma1992
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    I understand your question... I will try to address but I am running out the door right this second... I want to post tonight's games first. I appreciate your interest.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    8:00 PM HOUSTON CHRISTIAN 61 TEXAS A&M CC 83 144 -11.5 151.0 Home Minus Under

  10. #10
    usma1992
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    So back to your original question... The projected totals and points are only one part of the process. What I believe is nice about my system is that I generate my own projected points completely separate from Vegas. Often, my projected points provide valuable information. I then apply addition filters and test the algorithms over past data.

    For instance, I look at all the Home - games and the projected totals. I look at examine previous results vs. my spreads and over/unders and Vegas over/unders. By adding additional filters, I try to widdle down the amount of games that my system bets at a higher percentage rate.

    So on the Houston game, there must have been a match up issue that told the system not to bet the game even though the projected points clearly show that you should. I can't wait to see an Over bet or an Away - come up again. They are hitting North of 85%. I am going to look hard at the Houston game. The under really wasn't a great bet.

    Dave

  11. #11
    usma1992
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    Jamesrav,

    I examined the Houston game and I found an element or attribute of the game that helped me change the algorithm. I track 8 offensive statistics and four defensive statistics. In that specific game, all the four defensive statistics of WVU had a positive z score(which means they are bad) and all of 8 offensive statistics of Houston had a positive z-score. If I assign a point to each statistics... the match up produced 12 points total just from the Houston O vs. WVU D. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to pick and Under bet if there is a potential of a blowout.

    So I added that filter. A small change to the algorithm. Then I updated the previous games this season and it had no effect. There was no other scenario that the system picked the under while you had a 12 point matchup differential. That is what I do daily.

    In the most recent trial, I have added two small filters. I constantly update. With these updates, the last few days would have been 11-3. It is currently 11-5... but the model is better. Again, any update I make must be tested over the previous 1500 games or so.
    I just looked at the Houston Baptist vs. Texas AM CC to see if the under would be eliminated. That match up only produce 10 points out of potentially 12 so I am keeping both bets.
    Dave

  12. #12
    usma1992
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    Jamesrav,

    I hear you about only betting a certain amount of games. However, right now, I am averaging about 10% of the matches for College and about 20% for NBA. NBA is right at breakeven. Hasn't really produced anything.

    I am thinking about producing two models. One that has additional games at a lower percentage and one that has fewer games at a higher percentage. I guess we will see.

    It only takes me about 5 minutes to run both basketball models a day now. Then I spend a 4-5 hours on the weekend analyzing. It's fun now because it doesn't take me that long.

    Dave

  13. #13
    jamesrav
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    Billy Walters

    you might see if Walter's book is available at a local library , he apparently gives out quite a bit of info on his thinking (and specifics) in a 50 page section (sample below). It's indisputable he made a lot of money sports betting, although the Government said he profited from insider trading over numerous years (with the un-sexy stock Dean Foods) to the tune of $43 million profit. They do tend to exaggerate to build a case, and he apparently was ordered to pay back $25 million.

    “The repeat cycle is then in place—the new power ratings are combined with game-specific factors (step 2), home-field advantage (step 3), and an assessment of injuries (step 4) to determine the next game prediction (step 5). This is shown in step 8.”

    “If Temperature is 10 or below Degrees Fahrenheit: +1.75 Home.”
    “In that example, the True Game Performance Lever is 14 (the net score) + the old power rating of the opponent (-4.2), and the net injuries (4.7-6.5=-1.8).”
    “As you’ll see in the chart, 3 is relatively more valuable than 11, 12, and 13 combined, which are only worth 6 percent total.”
    “Again, remain disciplined.”

  14. #14
    usma1992
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    I will look into it.

    Take a look at the final results of the Houston Christian .... Texas A&M CC game. I had it 83-61... actual 81-59. Both bets won. I may be full of it... but damn are my results rolling in.

    13-5... now... this round. And I am predicting scores within a couple of points.

    Btw... system had Michigan winning by 4 very similar to Vegas.... had the point total at 46... Everyone was betting the Over. My system said stay away from both bets. If I were going to bet without my system... I would have taken the over.

    Enjoy
    Dave

  15. #15
    usma1992
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    I added a bet type... I am going to start parlaying certain games using the ML. The payout will not be great... but I wanted to try it for a while and see if I am profitable. The Parlay ML means take the favorite and ML.

    Games Tonight...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM MISSOURI 72 KENTUCKY 89 161 -12.5 161.0 PARLAY ML Too Close
    9:00 PM CREIGHTON 88 DEPAUL 61 149 15 142.0 PARLAY ML Too Close
    9:00 PM TEXAS A&M 64 AUBURN 79 142 -7.5 149.5 Home Minus Under
    Last edited by usma1992; 01-09-24 at 10:19 AM.

  16. #16
    jamesrav
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    good picks

    all winners it appears. Time to put down some serious money !

  17. #17
    usma1992
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    Look at the Creighton... Depaul game... and the previous Texas A&M CC.


    Texas A&M CC Predicted 83-61... Actual 81-59
    Creighton Predicted 88-61 Actual 84-58

    Can't be just luck... the PARLAY ML bets are just to see if it make sense money wise. But Auburn -7.5 and the Under... I am 15-5 now.

    Again... can't be just luck.

    Dave

  18. #18
    usma1992
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    On fire ... lately... 6-0(last night)... 4 were ML bets so... they aren't a big deal because the payout was weak. I'm parlaying all my ML bets together and betting the singles straight. I'm only using NBA ML bets until it becomes more consistent. My college bets are below... my Parlay will be Miami(College) ML and Clippers ML. So two bets and a 2 game ML Parlay.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM LOUISVILLE 65 MIAMI 88 153 -16 157.5 Parlay ML Under
    8:30 PM WISCONSIN 68 OHIO ST 76 144 -1.5 139.5 Home Minus Too Close

    Dave

  19. #19
    usma1992
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    1-1 on Single Bets... Lost Parlay because Miami got upset at home... All good... Rare bets today... Over and Home+ almost never come up. Over hits 85% of the time. Home+ has an extremely small sample size but hasn't lost. 100%. I guess we will see. 16-6 on Single Bets.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    6:30 PM NEW JERSEY TECH 62 UMASS-LOWELL 81 143 -13.5 147.5 Parlay ML Under
    8:30 PM JACKSON ST 71 ALABAMA ST 79 151 1.5 146.0 Home Plus Too Close
    7:00 PM MONMOUTH 71 UNC-WILMINGTON 80 151 -8.5 143.0 Too Close Over
    7:00 PM S ALABAMA 67 JAMES MADISON 88 155 -13 156.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM DREXEL 87 N CAROLINA A&T 62 149 14 141.0 Parlay ML Too Close

  20. #20
    TheGoldenGoose
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    I’ve been following along with your system. Wanted James Madison but couldn’t pull the trigger. My own system has been profitable but if it stumbles then I will follow your system. Thanks for sharing Dave.

  21. #21
    usma1992
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    I appreciate it. It feels like when I post... it falls on deaf ears. It looks like I went 1-2... Currently, 17-8. I will look into the Monmouth Over bet... they weren't even close. All the Parlay ML won... and I teamed it up with a ML on NBA which won. Both my NBA bets won... so it wasn't a terrible night... But again, Monmouth wasn't close... I will look into it.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM BUFFALO 62 AKRON 84 145 -16.5 142.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    8:30 PM DEPAUL 57 VILLANOVA 81 139 -19 136.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM FLA GULF COAST 69 KENNESAW ST 86 155 -7 151.5 Home Minus Too Close

  22. #22
    EasyCover
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    Have been watching. Nice work sir.

  23. #23
    usma1992
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    I appreciate the nod... it has only taken me 13-15 years to get here. I am not sure I am there yet... but it is nice that someone is actually watching. Everyone has a system... and of course everyone is successful... killing it. My system produces the numbers... and yes I will continue to adjust along the way... but when it is working and as I watch the games it makes sense. I leave it alone.

    Again, I will look at the Monmouth game and see if I can find something. Yes both teams shot 30% or so from the field but the posessions were only 52 a piece. That alone... states a No on Over bet.

    Encouragement is always needed... I am running 4 systems ... now 3 since college football is over... and working two jobs... and helping my son reach is doordash goal. He got $1500 for making 275 trips. A professional guy on youtube said the most he ever did was 30 trips in a day... in a torrential downpour... we did 31.

    College basketball tomorrow should be interesting a BIG DAY!!!

    Dave

  24. #24
    usma1992
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    Lost last night on spread bets... only 1 bet. I am Kennessaw St won by 3 ... spread was 7. Since my system seems to be hitting ... I am wondering whether I should round robin all my bets rather than just singling them. I have to think about it. See if the math makes sense. I am 17-9... but today is a big day and it has an Away - bet. My top category... GL. Dave

    Based on past data... the bet of the day is Northern Kentucky.

    AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    VANDERBILT 65 OLE MISS 81 146 -10 144.5 Home Minus Too Close
    N KENTUCKY 80 DETROIT 62 143 10 137.0 Away Minus Too Close
    SAN DIEGO ST 68 NEW MEXICO 77 145 -3.5 151.0 Home Minus Too Close
    OAKLAND 83 IUPUI 63 146 12.5 143.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    CS-FULLERTON 64 CS-NORTHRIDGE 76 140 -4 143.5 Home Minus Too Close
    VMI 64 SAMFORD 94 158 -24.00 162.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    TEMPLE 60 N TEXAS 75 135 -10.50 128.5 Parlay ML and H- Too Close
    LSU 61 AUBURN 79 141 -13.00 151.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    PORTLAND 59 SAN FRANCISCO 84 143 -16.50 143.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    Last edited by usma1992; 01-13-24 at 08:10 AM.

  25. #25
    usma1992
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    Not sure what to think... 4-1 on single bets yesterday... so my current total is 21-10. So my Away - is my favorite category and that is the only one that didn't hit lol. I put $100 on it and lost.... that experiment didn't work... lol. However, I decided to parlay in a round robin all 9 games. I couldn't do VMI because Virginia won't let you bet on a Virginia team. I also clicked the wrong button on Oakland and them minus the spread... Nonetheless, all of my bets won. 9-0 yesterday using ML... 9-0...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home
    2:00 PM MARYLAND 62 ILLINOIS 78 140 -9 139.0 Home Minus Too Close 0 0

  26. #26
    usma1992
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    It has been a long road... but I think I might have just beaten Vegas... I know... I have been told too many times that it can't be done. I'll gladly continue to post... I am not asking for a penny. Maybe you can donate 10% of your winnings to St. Jude. You want me to continue posting please let me know. Regardless, I am dialed in... profitable and ready for next fall.

    I feel like I am printing money.
    Dave
    Last edited by usma1992; 01-14-24 at 08:37 AM.

  27. #27
    bubba99
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    Good stuff man i been watching from the shadows.
    I hope for continued success for your system!

  28. #28
    usma1992
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    Illinois shot less than 33% from the field... Bad outing... I bet ML and spread so I am out both... all good... had amazing weekend. 21-11 on bets.

    Dave

  29. #29
    usma1992
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    Pretty small slate today...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    2:00 PM DARTMOUTH 56 PRINCETON 83 139 -18 135.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    3:00 PM MISS VALLEY ST 55 TEXAS SOUTHERN 82 138 -16.5 126.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM CHICAGO ST 62 STETSON 80 142 -10.5 139.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close

  30. #30
    Dakota
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    thank u for all of your hard work!! Much appreciated

  31. #31
    Enkhbat
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    keep up the good work usma1992, you are the only guy who has pulse in the college basketball subforum

  32. #32
    usma1992
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    I appreciate the feedback... I am now trying to work on a solid betting strategy. Money management as we all know is crucial. So this my strategy moving forward.

    Assuming each ML bet my system comes up with averages around 90%... which it seems to. Yes, the payout is -600 sometimes -2100... but nonetheless... if you can team up a parlay to generate 30% on your money consistently that is better than Wall Street.

    Regardless... if each single bet is .90*.9*.9*.9*.9... five bets... that still teams you up 60% chance of winning those individual parlays. At six games it drops to 53%. So plan to bet all parlay bets as round robins if they are five games or less and straight parlays if they are six games or more.

    In addition, I will bet all the single bets at 3% of my bankroll. The rest I will leave in cash. 21-12... lost another one.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    8:00 PM TEMPLE 59 SMU 80 139 -13.5 138.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM IOWA ST 67 BYU 79 146 -4.5 143.0 Home Minus Too Close

  33. #33
    kilrathi
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    So for my understanding what would you smu parley with?

  34. #34
    usma1992
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    I would normally team it up with my NBA picks which I haven't been publishing. They are starting to hit. I will restart publishing them by early next week.

    I will be parlaying SMU ML with BYU ML and then taking BYU spread bet separately.

    Only 3% of bankroll per bet... It turns out I missed 3 bets on last Saturday... all winners. My system had it set to only analysis 110 games at one time... about 130 played so it didn't even pick up the games.

    Dave
    Last edited by usma1992; 01-16-24 at 08:36 PM.

  35. #35
    kilrathi
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    Ahh ok thx for clarifying.
    I already followed your NBA system and was wondering why you stopped.

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