+6 at wagerchief now
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We have to start playing 1st Halves.
I swear the FADE works for the whole game.Comment -
What about the 2H?Comment -
Fade looks good on WVU Houli, did as you suggested and looked first thing this morning and UK was up there. Checked throughout day and then waited till closer to game time and pulled the trigger at +5. Interested to see how this plays out the rest of tourney...Comment -
I faded Kentucky too guys. The fact that the line stayed put was sure fire fade material!Comment -
Thank for the godfather reference Houli..HA!
As far as the "FADE system" goes..it is not perfect. But can find some great value betting against the public. Had a great day today..2-0.
Kentucky was a great example of a FADE. #1 pick and the line not moving is usually a great value to make a wager. Also remember, alot of these FADE bets are very difficult to make. Alot of times you are betting an underdog that seems like it doesn't have a chance in hell to win. I remember betting Tampa Bay this year against Green Bay and being so disgusted with choice I made after placing the bet. But ...Tampa ended up winning that game straight up. (also note..I've learned the NFL is just to unpredictable for the FADE system)
Just remember there is no "Lock" because if it was that easy Vegas would not exist. Keep up the good work guys, looks like you are making money!Comment -
The official FADERNATION song....
WV +4/ML winner winner
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Ya gotta love the fade, esp in the big games when there's so much public action! I like the favs tomorrow, change my mind!Comment -
truth, justice and the fadernation wayComment -
3/28
The FADE is strong. It has cashed us many tickets for the past week. But today nothing is obviously a FADE opportunity.
The closest FADE is Tennessee. They are at the top of the Trends list, and are getting the majority of action at most sportsbooks. But what throws me off is that the line is moving with the money. Started at a PK, and is now -2. What may make this a FADE opportunity is the fact that Pinnacle is inviting more Tennessee action, by floating Tennessee -2(+EV). This usually means that their sharpest players are on the other side, but they are recieving mostly Tennessee money.
I will make this a light FADE on Tennessee. With a Play on Michigan St. +2
Now I have no idea what to do with the Baylor game. Results are inconclusive. Its the second team on the trends list, but there are only 2 games. They are a dog, which where the reason for the early line movement. Though now the line has moved the other way. I recommend you guys wait for DEBO to make an appearance, or just do what you guys want to.
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As of right now..Tenn/Mich St is tough b/c Tenn is the top pick..But the line has moved with them..increasing from a Pick-em to -2. With that said..I'm taking Mich St. (small)
Baylor/Duke- I would be fading Baylor due to the fact that Baylor as an underdog is catching more action that the favorite. Whenever I see the public betting an underdog, I think that should be an immediate FADE. Plus, the line increased from 4.5 to 5 even though Baylor was getting more action. With that said..I like Duke. (small) But if the line starts moving back to 4.5, I wouldn't consider it a FADE.
I'll come back around 2 o'clock and see if the lines have moved at all. But if everything stays the same (Mich St & Duke)Comment -
Surprised the public is on the VolsComment -
Line movement at Pinnacle is a complete wash. Its gone up, and down. Pinny is not gambling on either side.
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The public has overreacted to injured players also. Hummel, Lucas, and Taylor are a few examples of public overreaction in a few games this tourney. The public sees a player is out, disregard all the other variables and make a bigger point adjustment than is necessary.Comment -
Argh starting to look like a no play for me.Comment -
A 2 point move in the Tenny game is a definite deal breaker for me. No way I'm backing Mich. St. in this spot. I don't really trust Tennessee either. Probably a no play.
Houli, do you think Pinny is offering (+EV) on Tennessee because that game is teetering back and forth between 1.5 and 2? If you're only laying 1.5 youre paying (-110) which is high for Pinny.Comment -
Today is tough because there just aren't enough games to spread the money around. The public has only 4 teams to bet, so there is limited data to show a true FADE standing out above the rest.
With that being said..I am FADING Baylor due to the fact that I always FADE underdogs when they are getting more action than a favorite. I'm on DUKE!
(I believe the last game this happened was Washington vs West Va with Washington getting all the action even though they were an underdog. I FADED Washington...and hit with West VA..) lets hope history repeats itself.
*also note..I'm taking Mich St very small wager b/c I always FADE the #1 pick. Even though the line moved with Tenn which is usually a deal breaker for a FADE. But I'm playing with the house's money so a small wager is worth the entertainment. Good luck guys. May the FADE be with you!Comment -
FADERNATION
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I believe th OVER 135 is a stronger play..BOL FadernationComment -
(RLM)Duke and Tenn M/L for me...Based on what I'm seeing books want Tenn and Baylor money...GL on your plays guys..Comment -
I got the over 135 too!Comment -
FADING the #1 pick is always a good option!
2-0 with the over and Mich State! Wow..what a run this FADE machine is on huh?Comment -
And the FADE beats on.
SPARTY IZZO BATTLE SHOUT HUAH HUAH HUAH HUAH!Comment -
Good run here! keep it up.Comment -
Nice call on those fades got MSU and took under 2nd half with MSU nice start to day +8 unitsComment -
State cashed, now it's -5 Duke and Under 138
Duke is back and is due for FF + public on Baylor + .5 RLM =
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There is no RLM.
You have to start paying better attention. The line is 4.5 across the board. And the line went down with the money when the line was released. The line is moving with the money again.
Plus there is nothing such as .5 RLM. Really dude you tried this stuff with Baylor. You could really lead people astray with this shit.Comment
