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whether it's ncaa,nba,mlb, if you look at these futures there really is a lot of value IF the heavy favorites don't win. For example in AL East you can cover a lot of teams at high %'s if you just avoid Yankees 1/2 or Boston 4/1. In NBA West to take that Conf Lakers are 1/2 and I'm looking at Dallas at 8-1 and Jazz are 17-1. I mean that's freakin nuts 17-1 the Jazz are a top team (imo).Comment -
What a joke you've become. Get over it kid. You have the demeanor of a little girl. Is it the end of the world for you? Are you on the verge of smashing your keyboard because I didn't come in here to agree with your bet? Convince yourself not me, trends and odds will never sway a bet I don't believe in. This hole you're digging? It's getting to the point I won't even feel sorry for you anymore when it loses.
Yeah, if you'd read the thread from top to bottom, you'd see I agreed with another poster that it had no value and was in the favor of the books. He lashed out with a temper tantrum.
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What a joke you've become. Get over it kid. You have the demeanor of a little girl. Is it the end of the world for you? Are you on the verge of smashing your keyboard because I didn't come in here to agree with your bet? Convince yourself, trends and odds will never sway a bet I don't believe in. This hole you're digging? It's getting to the point I won't even feel sorry for you anymore when it loses.
Yeah, if you'd read the thread from top to bottom, you'd see I agreed with another poster that it had no value and was in the favor of the books. He lashed out with a temper tantrum.
i read it all and if you read it all you'll see how i think i have explained quite well why this is actually a very good bet....and i gotta admit at 1st glance i thought same as you he was pissing money away but if you go back and read all my post i think i make a real convincing argument for why kolzig is on target with this playComment -
this is interestingComment -
we really wont have any resolution to this for another month BUT...i dunno, seems like a good bet to me for a few dollars when it was at 25x. not one id expect to win but definitely one that very possibly couldComment -
Id rather have K St at 35-1 as I do than those teams. even the 20-1 currently offered is better value..they will be 2 seed or higher.!Comment -
i bet utep is in your field as well arnt they? you got some serious shots at getting a team to the elite 8 and not sure why its so hard for ppl to understand you dont need any of those teams to win to make this profitable....fuk we all know more than likely none of the field winning the championship.....this is the only reason to play a future like this is the possible cash you will make hedging, that is why i would have bet more than 40Comment -
yes utep is included. a few other nonranked teams that are going to the dance like unlv are included. like 10+ tourny teams will be included........of course no one is going to win it all, the only teams i could see with a slight possibility of winning the whole thing is vandy (good record, tough conference) and New Mexico (#8 nationally, 27-3, great rpi, can win anywhere)...........ppl have to use a little imagination. NM is going to be a #3 seed. They might very well end up being in the elite 8 vs #1 seed, if that #1 seed survives up to that point. Either way with a 33-3 record at that point they would only be about 7 pt dogs to a #1 seed. Their would be a chance for an upset there............btw i just checked the SEC standing, Vandy is 11-3. lol. im sure they will be an easy out in a few weeksComment -
The +2500 before the conference tournys went to +300. 29 teams have made it to the dance under this line that includes these 17:
Butler
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Temple
New Mexico
ODU
Richmond
St. Marys
Cornell
Siena
UNLV
N.Iowa
SDSU
NMSU
Murray St
Utah St
Houston
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they could do this tourney 50 times and not one of those teams would win it.
New Mexico Vandy and Butler will not even make the final fourComment -
Great value...maybe...but none of those teams will be winning the Championship.... lol
Maybe a $5 play is in order though!
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if u really think 50 times you must always lose your money gambling. thats why you pop in here periodically to talk trash but u really suc azzComment -
Adios doubters, its hedgin' time
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BOOOM lolComment -
all the morons came out to bash me on this thread. most of them havent posted in a quite some time, wonder why.........also could of gotten N.Iowa in there as well if they didnt expect to win vs MSU.........but Butler is prime for some hedging playing at home on a huge winning streak. My only fear is them being +6 against Duke, that could really make it somewhat difficult to hedge. but i put 3.5U on this +2500 so i am loving it
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damn I wish I read this thread a month ago...There was OBVIOUS advantages to this bet from the get go, all the haters had no reason to post sh*t about your strategy. Some people blow my mind with their lack of brain capacity...
good luck on Butler
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Very nice King. Great hedging opportunity for sure now that they made it to the final four
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thanks skm. i figure they might be a pick vs michigan state, maybe +2 to tennessee........either way wsex has them about equal to WV in overall chances to win the title. crazy talk a few weeks ago
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How hard was it to not hedge against K St.?
Im with 2dabank I probably wouldve started in the elite eight. You are in a much better position now though.
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KingKolzig, your bet of +2500 for those teams obviously had tons of value and its clear that 1up doesn't have a clue.
Some gamblers get so sucked in on favorites that you can offer them 4-1 on all 4 teams in the final four being a #1 seed and they would jump all over it (when the true price is around 50-1).
You now are getting 25-1 on Butler winning the tourney when their current price is around 5-1 for a healthy 4X return on your money.
Most of my betting is in-running and people continue to make the mistake of falling in love with #1 seeds even when they are losing big.
The in-running prices I got betting against Kansas and Kentucky were unbelieveable.
If it wasn't for fools like 1UP, making money gambling would be far harder than it already is.Comment -
finally some ppl agree with me. its so true ppl get mentally locked into the higher seeds, or into the "premier" conferences......this is college basketball, more unpredictable and wild then any major gambling sport. so many good (but not great) ranked teams under one line was so good any one with a sliver of imagination could see something like this developing. a lot of books had this for a while too.............i do feel a bit lucky cause UK and KU are long gone, and that is very important for hedging
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Anyone seen this guy?
The self proclaimed sharps are always as square as the next man. And this one swears lowering his odds and payout from an original bet by betting more money against it is sheer brilliance.
Ignorance is bliss. Stop worrying about me. Worry about your hedging strategy. I hope that plan involves just breaking even. Maybe $50/60 more will get you back to square one and you can lay a new future bet on the Nets to win the Eastern Conference.
I hope he shill lurks here at least, just too broke to really get too involved lmfao
So I crunched the numbers and thanks to no UK, KU or Ohio state remaining (would have been very expensive to hedge with them around) it just made too much sense to hedge. Playing it safe and still getting a great payout. So i invested $150 on this, and here is the payouts (roughly) depending on which team wins it all:
Butler $1850
Duke $1300
WV $1250
MSU $1250
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im rootiing for butler man! Lets go!Comment -
congrats King. I didn't see this thread until today but you were right on from the beginning. This year was so wide open in the tourney that +1000 was decent value. I never got +2500 but +2000 was the best that I found. hedge away my friend!!
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im bumping this up for you KINGComment -
HedgeComment
