Post your pick of the day with a write-up...

Wolf40 · 02-15-10, 04:51 PM

I am all over Fairfield as well and posted a small write-up earlier but I have another one that I will go with for your threads purposes.

Western Carolina -6.5 @ NC Greensboro... WCU (18-8) (6-6V) have lost 3 in a row and are reeling. THey need to right the ship and are in a perfect spot vs a bad NC Greensboro team (5-19) only 3 wins since 1st week of Dec. WCU already won by 10 at Home this year and the spread was 16.5... I believe even without the last cover WCU is 16pts better than NCG and this line should be around 9 or 10 for this matchup (NC does not have a strong home advantage (3-10) but b/c of their last matchup only being a 10pt loss and WCU's 3 game losing streak the oddsmakers kept the spread low. WCU will come out Firing on all cylanders and I am very tempted to jump on the 1H line at -3.5. NC only shoots at a 37% clip and 28% from 3PT so points have been hard to come by while WCU can score 74pts per game. WCU was an 18-5 team before this little slump and NC is just what the Dr ordered here to get going again. I am factoring a big motivation component here to my anaylsis as WCU needs this win badly. GL with your picks!

konck · 02-15-10, 06:24 PM

I dont cap numbers like you guys. We all have the same numbers and it usually brings us to the same results. Most times gamblers lose, so I bet against the money plain and simple.
I use 2 top 10 list and 3 percentages sites plus I track line movement a lot. I know your thinking this isn't as strong as your numbers but trust me it is stronger. Todays play is weak though as my play for today was only The #3 pick on both list....My pick today is Manhatten. Normally my play is at least a #1 pick on one of the 2 list today that didnt happen so a small bet is the result.
In the last year im going to say I won as many contest as anyone I have seen here's some of the list.
3 of 5 baseball medleys that lasted 2 weeks (bookmaker) I won a total of 1100 there I won a Manmon 500 pk5 with the eacxt tie breaker 2nd in the 1k pk7 I had a bad year in Beat the Prick yet I finish 11th out of 700 some odd players in weekly money won. I won the Bash MLB contest (best prize for me ever) Plane tix rd trip a suite (really nice) poker tourny and some dinners. I won a 100 pk the score twice in MLB once in college hoops I won a medley for NBA 300. I won some smaller prizes from finish in the top 10. My stuff works it really does. Use your numbers all you want but ill pk a high amt of wins betting against the capper.
Tonight like i said a smaller play Manhatten my other games are NC Greenboro- Maryland-Hawaii.
GL betting with the numbers you going to find out you all come up with the same teams.....If you dont believe me go look at who they like in the forum today.
My play today is str bet Manhatten 110 to win 100 ....8 pt sweetheart teaser NC Green/Maryland/Hawaii 66 to win 60 and a 20 parlay Maryland/Manhatten I wish you luck guys. PM me if you want more info.

Serbone · 02-15-10, 06:53 PM

KU much better team, # 1 in USA.
A&M is a home conference espn night game dog, will be FIRED UP!
A&M playing well, great guard, not as deep or tall as KU, but four wins in a row, including some good opponents (MU).
Crowd will go ape shit vs # 1 team as long as A&M keeps it reasonably close.
KU 1-4 ats last 5, so has not inclined to be fired up.
KU coasting, pretty much locked up Big 12, pretty sure of # 1 seed.
This time of yr, take pts when you can get 6-10 at home vs ranked teams... like yesterday Rutgers and Louisville.
Especially when the home dog is pretty good and motivated... though A&M is pretty much in the NCAA themselves.
A&M + 7.

Serbone · 02-15-10, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

KU much better team, # 1 in USA.
A&M is a home conference espn night game dog, will be FIRED UP!
A&M playing well, great guard, not as deep or tall as KU, but four wins in a row, including some good opponents (MU).
Crowd will go ape shit vs # 1 team as long as A&M keeps it reasonably close.
KU 1-4 ats last 5, so has not inclined to be fired up.
KU coasting, pretty much locked up Big 12, pretty sure of # 1 seed.
This time of yr, take pts when you can get 6-10 at home vs ranked teams... like yesterday Rutgers and Louisville.
Especially when the home dog is pretty good and motivated... though A&M is pretty much in the NCAA themselves.
A&M + 7.

I would like to publicly apologize, A&M covered the whole game, but it was kinda close at the end.

Ranx777 · 02-15-10, 11:35 PM

Youre right, we all do have the same 'numbers,' but also watching games, following how teams have been playing and using situation analysis can be very beneficial to trying getting close to winning 60% of the wagers you make, which is all my goal is to do. I made the only statement that really matter in my first sentence of my write up about Manhattan vs Fairfield. By saying "First off, these teams are on different levels of basketball." Indicated that I knew who was the better team. If KU would have been -1.5 @ A&M, all the money would have been on them too, does that make u play on A&M? Believe it or not, lines can be off, as was the Fairfield line. And trust me, I dont always agree with the public. I will be back tomorrow for another write-up.

I encourage everyone to join in, the more insight the better.

gwiz · 02-15-10, 11:56 PM

nice read on fairfield game ranx

the difference between knowing what is real and what is illusion

thanks for sharing

Ranx777 · 02-16-10, 12:04 PM

San Diego State -5 @ TCU

Another hugely undervalued chalk here. Again, like yesterdays write up, these teams are NOT IN THE SAME CLASS. Probably two classes between them. SDSU is playing their best ball of the year. Since a close loss to BYU, They smashed Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming just like they should. TCU was a dog at Wyoming this past saturday, the oddsmakers know what class of the MWC they belong in. SDSU only loss was by 2 in OVERTIME to the best team in the conference New Mexico. UNLV came to town saturday and SDSU handled them from start to finish, this team is for real. TCU on the other hand is playing their worst ball of the year. They have not come within 6 of anybody not named Wyoming or Air Force, in fact they only have 4 conference wins, each of those teams twice. They have NO SHOT at winning this game. 5 points is nothing here. Granted they played a 5 point game back on Jan. 16th but A LOT has changed since then, plus TCU hit 12 three pointers in that game, shot over 53% from the field overall, and still got beat by 5. That won't happen again, TCU won't reach 60 points, a number they couldnt reach vs the last 4 quality teams they played. SDSU hasnt allowed 60 points to anyone in their last 5, besides New Mexico. SDSU will score 68 plus points tonight, and TCU wont reach 60, no shot TCU can hang within 5.

WildcatFan · 02-16-10, 12:34 PM

Kentucky Wildcats (24-1 Conf 9-1) -2,5 @ Miss State (18-7 Conf 6-4)

Kentucky has been playing very good lately. The defense has really improved since the emergence of DeAndre Liggins. Miss State plays a 3 guard 2 Forward line-up. This will be an advantage for UK because of their length. Miss State has struggled in conference play while losing 4 games. They lost @ Bama, @ Arkansas, @ Vandy, and @ Florida. Their home wins in conference have been very close excluding two games. Miss State lost to Rider and Richmond for their only two home losses on the year. Miss State hasn't faced a team with this much length, speed, and athleticism.

Ranx777 · 02-17-10, 01:08 PM

2-0 So Far with my write-ups of my POD on this thread, Lets keep it rolling. 3rd straight UNDERVALUED CHALK.

Memphis -11 @ Tulane

Memphis can win this game by as much as they want. At 18-7, they cannot afford to lose games they should win, and their last time out against Tulsa, they showed some of their true colors. Tulane is MUCH WORSE than Tulsa. Tulane's last 3 home games? A 15 point loss to East Carolina, 18 point loss to Southern Miss and 18 point loss to SMU. They didnt score 50 points in any of these games! Tulane is actually playing worse at home than on the road. Memphis averaged 75.9 point per game on the year and last game out, their offense looked better than ever. Even if they coast this whole, game which they probably will, they will still win by 15. They won't be looking ahead to anyone, just taking care of business against a Tulane team that has packed it in. Memphis rolls by 20.

chisox19 · 02-17-10, 04:00 PM

Uri @ ST.LOUIS +1.5

This is a very tough spot for URI. St. Louis is 12-1 su and 6-2 ats on their home court and the play terrific defense. They allow the 6th fewest ppg which contrats URI's fastbreaking offense. In the games URI has lost this year they have shot 19 percent from three (14-74) while they have shot 36 percent (137-380) in wins. St. Louis has the best 3 point defense in the conference and one of the best in the country only allowing opponents to shoot 25 percent. URI looked horrible against Temple, they struggled defending in the half court allowing Temple to shoot an astronomical 68 percent from the field. They also allowed Temple to shoot a perfect 6-6 from behind the arc. St. Louis can be considered a poor man's Temple, I think there is great value in St. Louis grabbing 2.5 here.

whatsgood5 · 02-17-10, 04:03 PM

Heat -6.5, will post blog link in next post

whatsgood5 · 02-17-10, 04:03 PM

Here ya go, for those interested. Don't wanna put 600 or so words in here.

http://whatsgood5.mysbrforum.com/blog/13912-why-heat-will-continue-their-win-streak-wednesday-night.html

ringemup · 02-17-10, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by konck

I dont cap numbers like you guys. We all have the same numbers and it usually brings us to the same results. Most times gamblers lose, so I bet against the money plain and simple.
I use 2 top 10 list and 3 percentages sites plus I track line movement a lot. I know your thinking this isn't as strong as your numbers but trust me it is stronger. Todays play is weak though as my play for today was only The #3 pick on both list....My pick today is Manhatten. Normally my play is at least a #1 pick on one of the 2 list today that didnt happen so a small bet is the result.
In the last year im going to say I won as many contest as anyone I have seen here's some of the list.
3 of 5 baseball medleys that lasted 2 weeks (bookmaker) I won a total of 1100 there I won a Manmon 500 pk5 with the eacxt tie breaker 2nd in the 1k pk7 I had a bad year in Beat the Prick yet I finish 11th out of 700 some odd players in weekly money won. I won the Bash MLB contest (best prize for me ever) Plane tix rd trip a suite (really nice) poker tourny and some dinners. I won a 100 pk the score twice in MLB once in college hoops I won a medley for NBA 300. I won some smaller prizes from finish in the top 10. My stuff works it really does. Use your numbers all you want but ill pk a high amt of wins betting against the capper.
Tonight like i said a smaller play Manhatten my other games are NC Greenboro- Maryland-Hawaii.
GL betting with the numbers you going to find out you all come up with the same teams.....If you dont believe me go look at who they like in the forum today.
My play today is str bet Manhatten 110 to win 100 ....8 pt sweetheart teaser NC Green/Maryland/Hawaii 66 to win 60 and a 20 parlay Maryland/Manhatten I wish you luck guys. PM me if you want more info.

agree that its not a bad idea to go against the public based on percentage but it doesnt work for all games. better to go based on scouting report first then backed up by percentages. never the less, not a bad strategy.

Jasonal_98 · 02-17-10, 04:44 PM

Here's a link to my blog on WVU-Providence tonight. I'm on WVU.

http://jasonal98.mysbrforum.com/blog/13909-wvu-take-out-frustration-providence.html

Peregrine Stoop · 02-17-10, 04:46 PM

Purdue +3.5 -110 @ tOSU
Joe Schmoe is a big Buckeye back these days
Purdue, a very high team on kenpom, has sort of fallen into the collective unconscious.

yunnusan · 02-17-10, 04:47 PM

Purdue +3.5

Ranx777 · 02-17-10, 06:17 PM

Nice work. Let's keep this thread rolling. I might as well add another play on here since I am bored.

Arkansas -4 vs South Carolina

Arkansas has been solid at home in conference play. SC is horrible on the road. Good start already. SC lost to Wofford on the road. This team is still gettin too much respect from their home win over Kentucky. Arkansas was on a 5 game winning streak until losing last time out at Alabama, a game in which they allowed Bama to shoot 49% for the game and get to the free throw line much more, 17 more FTs to be exact. Arkansas should be motivated for this one big time, they know they still have a shot at the big dance, but CANNOT afford to lose here. Ole Miss and Miss State are better teams then SC and Arkansas handled them both in the last 3 weeks. Arkansas looked average vs Auburn at home last week but, it was a fluke, allowing an astounding 68 shots by AUB, plus AUB hit 12 three pointers. South Carolina's best player Devin Downey is in a shooting slump right now as well, shooting just 17 of 60 (28%) in his last three games. Without him being efficient on offense, they won't stay within 10 here. Arkansas takes this game by 7-11 points.

whatsgood5 · 02-17-10, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by yunnusan

Purdue +3.5

Went against ya here. You made some nice points in your write-up though...oh wait.

Ranx777 · 02-17-10, 10:39 PM

That brings me to 4-0 thus far.

Ranx777 · 02-18-10, 11:55 AM

UNDERVALUED CHALK #5 in a ROW

St. Mary's -7 @ San Diego

This will be a popular pick tonight. And for good reason. San Diego is terrible. They have lost 9 of 10. The actually have 0% chance of winning this game. That usually cannot be said for teams only a 7 point dog. St. Mary's is going to bury them. San Diego lost to Santa Clara by 16 their last home game! They lost by 15 at SMC the 21st of January and this one could get worse. SMC HAS to win this game and they know it. They also know if they win their last 3 games they wil be 24-5, probably one conference tourney win away from being in the big dance. Prior to losses at Gonzaga and Portland in their last 2 games, they were 8-0 on the road, with know team even coming within 5 points of them. This spread should be about 12.5, and even then I would consider SMC. In SMC's last 6 games they have scored 73 or above, San Diego, if you take away their overtime game have scored 54 50 56 65 44 43 56 65. So basically if San Diego has there best scoring day and SMC has their worst scoring day, u are looking at a 73-65 score... with SMC still covering!! St. Mary's will blast San Diego tonight, period.

floridagolfer · 02-18-10, 12:08 PM

Southern Cal-Washington over 130.5

Washington is averaging 84 ppg in conference home games and should have little trouble controlling the pace against Southern Cal. The Trojans usually don't light up the scoreboard, but it was Washington that allowed them to score 87 in the first game back in late January. That is 19 points more than USC has scored in ANY conference game this year, home or away. I'm having a hard time seeing this game going under.

iMxth3xbossx5000 · 02-18-10, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by Ranx777

UNDERVALUED CHALK #5 in a ROW

St. Mary's -7 @ San Diego

This will be a popular pick tonight. And for good reason. San Diego is terrible. They have lost 9 of 10. The actually have 0% chance of winning this game. That usually cannot be said for teams only a 7 point dog. St. Mary's is going to bury them. San Diego lost to Santa Clara by 16 their last home game! They lost by 15 at SMC the 21st of January and this one could get worse. SMC HAS to win this game and they know it. They also know if they win their last 3 games they wil be 24-5, probably one conference tourney win away from being in the big dance. Prior to losses at Gonzaga and Portland in their last 2 games, they were 8-0 on the road, with know team even coming within 5 points of them. This spread should be about 12.5, and even then I would consider SMC. In SMC's last 6 games they have scored 73 or above, San Diego, if you take away their overtime game have scored 54 50 56 65 44 43 56 65. So basically if San Diego has there best scoring day and SMC has their worst scoring day, u are looking at a 73-65 score... with SMC still covering!! St. Mary's will blast San Diego tonight, period.

Theres no reason to believe St.Mary's won't blow San Diego out by 25+ points, it seems very likely. Even with the public pounding St.Mary's though, the line has not moved. The line itself seems like it's off by about a good 8-9 points anyway

Mr Handicapable · 02-18-10, 01:20 PM

I like St. Marys tonite too but my play of the day is South Alabama +12.5

SA and W. Kentucky are both 15-12....pretty evenly matched imo...1st meeting was a 3 pt. game! S. Alabama is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road games and they have road wins over Florida & Arkansas already this year! They're not a bad club and this isn't one of the better WKy teams either. WKy is out in the middle of nowhere and not an easy place to play but I still think this line should be about 8-9 at the most?

mann2chc · 02-18-10, 01:56 PM

W Carolina @ Citadel +1...

Even though i see W Car as being the better team, they'e so on and off and Citadel has been playing solid ball at home here lately...add those 2 and i have Citadel holding serve on home court tonite!

Peregrine Stoop · 02-18-10, 02:22 PM

Wisconsin +1 -110 at Minnesota
-Wisconsin struggles to stop amazing perimeter penetration (Evan Turner, Demetri McCamey, Kalin Lucas). Minnesota doesn't have that sort of player to exploit the Badgers.
-Wisconsin still isn't perceived as the sexy team they are.

chisox19 · 02-18-10, 02:25 PM

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi OVER 154.5

http://chisox19.mysbrforum.com/blog/13990-vanderbilt-continue-high-trend-mississippi.html

RJBucs · 02-18-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Ranx777

UNDERVALUED CHALK #5 in a ROW

St. Mary's -7 @ San Diego

This will be a popular pick tonight. And for good reason. San Diego is terrible. They have lost 9 of 10. The actually have 0% chance of winning this game. That usually cannot be said for teams only a 7 point dog. St. Mary's is going to bury them. San Diego lost to Santa Clara by 16 their last home game! They lost by 15 at SMC the 21st of January and this one could get worse. SMC HAS to win this game and they know it. They also know if they win their last 3 games they wil be 24-5, probably one conference tourney win away from being in the big dance. Prior to losses at Gonzaga and Portland in their last 2 games, they were 8-0 on the road, with know team even coming within 5 points of them. This spread should be about 12.5, and even then I would consider SMC. In SMC's last 6 games they have scored 73 or above, San Diego, if you take away their overtime game have scored 54 50 56 65 44 43 56 65. So basically if San Diego has there best scoring day and SMC has their worst scoring day, u are looking at a 73-65 score... with SMC still covering!! St. Mary's will blast San Diego tonight, period.

Ranx, I have tailed you in your last three write up games. Keep up the good work!

Ranx777 · 02-19-10, 11:45 AM

RJ, I hope more people are doing the same, and hopefully u took St. Mary's last night. I am unsure if I will have any picks tonight. Definitely will be posting a few tomorrow, gotta love non-conference mis-matches.

Booga36 · 02-19-10, 11:56 AM

Thanks Ranx, I've been following you since you started this thread and I finally dropped some man jewels lastnight and took St. Mary's. You were completely right about San Diego. SMC played one of their worst games lastnight and they still covered. Great pick.

jeepsguy004 · 02-19-10, 11:58 AM

Ranx you are on fire! Congrats buddy keep up the good work. This is a good thread for people to get a chance to see how other people handicapp.

RJBucs · 02-19-10, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Ranx777

RJ, I hope more people are doing the same, and hopefully u took St. Mary's last night. I am unsure if I will have any picks tonight. Definitely will be posting a few tomorrow, gotta love non-conference mis-matches.

are you kidding me??!!?? Of course I did! YOU'RE ON FIRE

sportsguy04 · 02-19-10, 03:03 PM

Cornell -2.5
William and Mary +4
Cavs -4.5

- Cause I said so.

Booga36 · 02-20-10, 11:01 AM

Hey Ranx...I was just wondering if you were going to extend your streak today and go for #6? I was also wanting to get all of you guys thoughts on UK and Vandy. Im leaning UK eventhough Vandy has been absolutely lights out at home. Im just not swallowing the Vandy upset pill just yet. thanks

Ranx777 · 02-20-10, 11:35 AM

Yes sir, I will be extending my streak to 6 today. Maybe even longer. Post is coming soon.