Tuesday Champions Classic Picks and Predictions

SBR Andy · 2025-11-18T19:24:41+00:00

SBR's Shane Thurston breaks down the first game in his Michigan State vs Kentucky prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 153.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Game prediction: Michigan State +5.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

"The 5.5-point spread is a tad high, especially considering Evan Miya’s website projects a 3.5-point difference between the two teams on a neutral site. His projections do a better job of accounting for injuries, which matters here since Kentucky guard Jaland Lowe is out with a shoulder issue.

Lowe’s absence could be a significant loss for Kentucky, as he played 30 minutes while finishing with a team-best five assists during that defeat at Louisville. Will the Wildcats lose some of their offensive effectiveness without him?

Tuesday’s matchup against Michigan State offers a good opportunity to test that theory. The Spartans rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven’t given up more than 69 points in a game yet this season.

Meanwhile, Kentucky, has scored 88-plus points in three straight games. The Wildcats rank eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.

I’m banking on the Spartans slowing down the Wildcats on a neutral site, an outcome most projections reflect. Evan Miya projects 77.4 points for Kentucky, while KenPom forecasts 79 points."

Best prop bet: Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 7.5 assists (+105 via BetMGM)

"Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the country while averaging of 9.3 assists per game. He’s recorded nine-plus assists in all three contests, including 10 dimes in the season opener.

You’d expect his assist total to drop in a marquee matchup, but Kentucky’s defense has been struggling with ball movement. The Wildcats are giving up an assist rate of 61.4%, which ranks 308th in the nation. For context, the national average is 53%.

I like the idea of getting a plus-money price on Fears recording eight assists."

Michigan State vs. Kentucky best odds

SBR Andy · 2025-11-18T19:27:56+00:00

Shane also shares some betting insight for the late game in his Kansas vs Duke prediction:

Game prediction: Kansas +11.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Over/Under pick: Under 149 (-115 via BetRivers)

"This is the biggest underdog that Kansas has been in 26 years. The last time the Jayhawks were getting more than 9.5 points was when they closed +10.5 in the Round of 32 against Duke on March 19, 2000.

Life without Peterson could prove to be difficult against Duke on Tuesday.

I’m most concerned with KU’s ability to score without Peterson. In the last two games with him sidelined, the Jayhawks scored 76 against Princeton and 77 against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

That’s why it’s not shocking to see KU’s team total trading at 68.5 at our best sports betting sites. Evan Miya’s projections (which account for injuries) have the Jayhawks finishing with 68.8 points in 67.8 possessions.

KU’s best chance at keeping this from getting ugly is to slow the game down. Kansas has ranked 211th in adjusted tempo this season, marking the team’s slowest pace since 2020.

Duke (162nd in tempo) plays fast on offense, but its ninth-ranked defense has made opposing teams average 18.6 seconds per possession (341st). For context, the national average possession time is 16.9 seconds.

I’m projecting a slug fest in the first half before the Blue Devils pull away after the break."

Best prop bet: Flory Bidunga Under 25.5 points + rebounds (-125 via FanDuel)

"Without Peterson, the pressure is on Flory Bidunga to deliver as the only returning rotation player from last year’s Kansas team. Bidunga did just that against Princeton, finishing with 25 points and 10 rebounds in the win.

However, he's struggled with consistency. He scored 20 total points in his previous two games before that Princeton performance. He can often battle foul trouble, while also lacking the post moves this early in his career to produce consistently.

A matchup against Duke’s Cameron Boozer, a high pick in next year’s NBA Draft, feels like a spot for another underwhelming performance for Bidunga. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Boozer is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game."

Kansas vs. Duke odds

SBR Andy · 2025-11-18T20:48:17+00:00

Monday CBB Top 25 Betting insights from BetMGM: