Little Schools Big Angles $$$$$

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-07-20, 08:54 AM

Hampton total dropped to 145.5 on FanDuel for tonite? I wonder if somebody is out or Covid or something? That is one negative for these small teams. Info is definitely harder to get then if somebody is out for Duke. I just added a little more though!

**doubledime** · 12-07-20, 11:40 AM

Good points Hammer. Ken Pom is a treasure trove of info for sure. On the opposite side of the KP stats is Air Force #356 in tempo and an average possession time of 20.3 seconds. One of my metrics for determining my First Half Unders.

DD

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-07-20, 01:35 PM

This thread brings a tear to my eye. GL this season fellas!

**bigbluemist** · 12-07-20, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

This thread brings a tear to my eye. GL this season fellas!

Miss your posts!!!

**bigbluemist** · 12-07-20, 03:25 PM

GW/UMBC
Under 146.5

**doubledime** · 12-07-20, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

This thread brings a tear to my eye. GL this season fellas!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-08-20, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by bigbluemist

Miss your posts!!!

Thanks for that. Given all of the uncertainties of this season, I was unwilling/able to set up my model and do my usual thing. I may end up doing a thread for spot plays, but it most likely wouldn't be a daily thing.

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 11:03 AM

Whats up fellas? Hampton tied 56-56 with 10 min left but H scored 8 pts in the last 10 min? I'm worn out with my Overs going to half in good shape and then drying up 2H? I did hit Seton Hall/Penn St easily the other night.

We'll see what happens? Long season

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 11:24 AM

Adding Oral Roberts (2-0 Over) to the mix:

What do you call 2 gay guys named Bob? Oral Roberts!

Ok I'm sorry. Promise to clean up my act.

OR is my kind of squad! #122 offense #316 defense #105 pace

OK State is a pretty talented squad. That one kid is the #1 rated freshman overall I think? They're 51/25/90 and here's a key for me....they just won 83-65 vs Charlotte. Charlotte is #169 defense and #344 pace. If they can hang 83 on them with their defense and pace then I'm shooting for maybe 93 on OR tonite?

I hit Over 151.5 for a little last night, but now its 153.5 (-125) on MgM or OK St Over 85.5 (-113) on FanDuel. Decisions decisions?

Over 153.5 (-125) it is. I see something like 90-69 Okie State

Good Luck Tonite!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-08-20, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Whats up fellas? Hampton tied 56-56 with 10 min left but H scored 8 pts in the last 10 min? I'm worn out with my Overs going to half in good shape and then drying up 2H? I did hit Seton Hall/Penn St easily the other night.

We'll see what happens? Long season

I took a quick look at the play-by-play on that one. Unless I missed something, it looks like Hampton took 11 threes in the last 10 minutes and made just one. If they go 3-11, you win.

I've harped on this before, but three point shooting is the greatest source of variance in college basketball, IMO. In recent years, Hampton has not been a heavy three point shooting team, which makes that stretch particularly frustrating since there was no indication going in that they would take over 50% of their shots from three.

Stuff like that makes me wonder why any of us thinks we can predict what a bunch of 18-22 year old kids will do.

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by bigbluemist

GW/UMBC
Under 146.5

Not to bust your balls man after a loss. I lost my cbb Over too, but GW is #218, #254, #39. Under on a #39 pace team thats already 3-0 Over? No no no. I wonder how many more totals in the 140s we'll see with GW?

Adding:

George Washington (4-0 Overs) to our mix

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I took a quick look at the play-by-play on that one. Unless I missed something, it looks like Hampton took 11 threes in the last 10 minutes and made just one. If they go 3-11, you win.

I've harped on this before, but three point shooting is the greatest source of variance in college basketball, IMO. In recent years, Hampton has not been a heavy three point shooting team, which makes that stretch particularly frustrating since there was no indication going in that they would take over 50% of their shots from three.

Stuff like that makes me wonder why any of us thinks we can predict what a bunch of 18-22 year old kids will do.

So true. I had La Tech Over 75.5 last week against La Monroe. LT had 74 with 7 min left and finished with 78. My buddy, who may be the worst/unluckiest gambler I've ever known, gets to the casino and they don't have team totals. He got Over 140.5 instead

He needed like 13 points in the last 7 minutes.
He won't add any of the apps here in Indiana because he's older, but Fan Duel had 137.5 around lunchtime that day.

I think note taking is very important. Like for instance I had Arkansas Over last week and the first half was good. They were running and scoring, but suddenly started taking the air out of the ball with like 14 min left? They were up like 18 and just started holding the ball til 5-10 sec or less on every possession when they got the lead by running. I think most teams will keep running til very late if they have a nice lead. Definitely crossing Arkansas off my Over list or playing them Under in the future.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-08-20, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Not to bust your balls man after a loss. I lost my cbb Over too, but GW is #218, #254, #39. Under on a #39 pace team thats already 3-0 Over? No no no. I wonder how many more totals in the 140s we'll see with GW?

Adding:

George Washington (4-0 Overs) to our mix

I'll play a little bit of devil's advocate here:

Early in the season (before, say, 10 games), I typically look at the head coach's pace numbers in past seasons. Jamion Christianson's teams have routinely been in the bottom 1/3 of the NCAA in pace, so I would call GW's pace numbers this season a departure from what I would expect. It's completely possible that Christianson has decided to change styles this season, but if he hasn't, there may be some value in GW unders in the coming weeks. (Note that I haven't watched them or read anything about GW this season to be able to offer a guess one way or the other.)

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I took a quick look at the play-by-play on that one. Unless I missed something, it looks like Hampton took 11 threes in the last 10 minutes and made just one. If they go 3-11, you win.

I've harped on this before, but three point shooting is the greatest source of variance in college basketball, IMO. In recent years, Hampton has not been a heavy three point shooting team, which makes that stretch particularly frustrating since there was no indication going in that they would take over 50% of their shots from three.
Stuff like that makes me wonder why any of us thinks we can predict what a bunch of 18-22 year old kids will do.

Here's another thing I think about regarding that. Watch as many of these games as you can if you're betting them for a profit and not recreational. Of course people have obligations and can't (or don't want to) watch a ton of cbb games.

If you watch a game though then take some notes. For instance I barely hit the Over in the Purdue/Oakland game last week. Purdue had 49 at half and was just hitting 3 after 3 after 3. However I noticed they were just dumping down to the bigs and kicking it back out. No guard penetration at all really? The 3s they were hitting were mostly somewhat contested. Thats just not a recipe for long term offensive success. It might work vs Oakland. Next game vs Valpo it was 139.5 I think? Easy Under and Purdue was very sluggish. Love KenPom but he always overrates the B10. I look to fade Purdue and their 8' tall Lurch this year, but I don't know Miami for tonites game

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I'll play a little bit of devil's advocate here:

Early in the season (before, say, 10 games), I typically look at the head coach's pace numbers in past seasons. Jamion Christianson's teams have routinely been in the bottom 1/3 of the NCAA in pace, so I would call GW's pace numbers this season a departure from what I would expect. It's completely possible that Christianson has decided to change styles this season, but if he hasn't, there may be some value in GW unders in the coming weeks. (Note that I haven't watched them or read anything about GW this season to be able to offer a guess one way or the other.)

Great point, but I think he must've decided to open it up. La Monroe coach is on record saying that kids didn't want to play his slow style last year and he wants to pick it up. Maybe GW is the same? Hampton hung 82 on them after all.

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I'll play a little bit of devil's advocate here:

Early in the season (before, say, 10 games), I typically look at the head coach's pace numbers in past seasons. Jamion Christianson's teams have routinely been in the bottom 1/3 of the NCAA in pace, so I would call GW's pace numbers this season a departure from what I would expect. It's completely possible that Christianson has decided to change styles this season, but if he hasn't, there may be some value in GW unders in the coming weeks. (Note that I haven't watched them or read anything about GW this season to be able to offer a guess one way or the other.)

I was under the impression that KPs numbers are based off last year or atleast last years numbers in regards to returning players, additions, etc. and then adjusted game by game. I could be wrong?

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-08-20, 12:14 PM

I've been wrong on KPs formula. I knew you were right about GWs usual pace and they finished last season at #264. No way could they move up to #39 this year if they were carrying any of last seasons numbers. Thats a huuuuuge swing?

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-09-20, 12:48 AM

Oral Roberts Ok State got there!!! 96 point 2H I think? I thought it was buried!!! Central Arkansas & St Louis also creeped Over the total.

I had a big night after starting off 0-2. I had Purdue -2 and they blew a 20 pt lead. I also picked up Kansas Creighton Over Live like a newbie when they both came out raining 3s. Of course the game slowed down, but if Creighton hits that last ft with :01 left then it goes OT and I get there so not a good start.

Came back though with Iowa 1H ML and then Iowa 2H ML when NC got a 1 pt lead. Also hit Illinois 1H ML +125! Parlayed those 2 with GB ML to collect $340 on Sunday! Plus my Ok State Oral Roberts Over got there on my app for some nice coin! Been on a nice run with cbb!

Back to this thread though:

Our little 5 pack is 12-1-2 Over the total

Since the thread started they're now 2-1 Over the total. Hampton lost, Oral Roberts & Central Arkansas went Over tonite. I plan to keep playing them and adding/subtracting when the totals are below mid 150s!

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-09-20, 02:53 PM

Adding SE Missouri State to make it a 6 pack!! They're 3-0 Over and fit the criteria! If anyone has a small school totals squad to track then feel free to throw one in! An Under moneymaker maybe?

SE Missouri State 288th/340th/165th pace. 340th on defense is just what I like! Some turnstyle defense! They just gave Lipscomb a fat LIPscomb 82-77 so maybe their offense is ready to shoot up from #288? On the flip side Lips is #283 on defense so maybe its that?

Rematch with Lipscomb tonite with a total of 141.5. Stands to reason a rematch would be lower scoring, but I'm taking a shot at it. They put up 159 points? I'm also on Rhode Island +11 and my biggest play is OU/Xavier Over 146.5

6 pack combined = 15-1-2 Over the total. 2-1 Over since start of the thread

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-09-20, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Good points Hammer. Ken Pom is a treasure trove of info for sure. On the opposite side of the KP stats is Air Force #356 in tempo and an average possession time of 20.3 seconds. One of my metrics for determining my First Half Unders.

DD

Hey DD! Missed your post the other day for some reason. Yeah the military schools always walk it up and take their time. Funny though Navy has won 2 games 78-71 already. Definitely doesn't sound like a Navy basketball score unless you go back to David Robinson

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-09-20, 03:47 PM

Take a look at Bryant for overs. Their games are "Extra" games.

**bigbluemist** · 12-09-20, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Take a look at Bryant for overs. Their games are "Extra" games.

There game is 86 at the half today

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-10-20, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Take a look at Bryant for overs. Their games are "Extra" games.

Wow. Have to check them next time. Thanks!

Current tally: Central Arkansas, Howard, Hampton, George Washington, Oral Roberts, and SE Missouri State 16-1-2 Over

3-1 Over for this thread

Got lucky with SE MO going OT last night. Did hit my main play with Ok/Xavier going waaaay over the total!

Didn't see anything tonite? I'm on GT/Pitt Over 53.5 in football

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-10-20, 05:24 PM

Ok lets add Bryant. I forgot about them and I cashed them vs Cuse with the 2H line.

Bryant 4-0 Over, #189 offense, #299 defense, and #2 pace

I was only glancing at the Cuse/Bryant game, but they appeared to have decent size and battled them inside. I had no idea they played that fast? They're an Over bettors dream with #299/#2! That being said I don't bet (or recommend) crazy totals like 162, etc. Or even high 150s normally. Definitely a case by case basic

7 teams now for a combined = 20-1-2 Over, 3-1 Over for this thread

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-10-20, 05:31 PM

Adding another squad, but can only track so many teams. Limit is 10 and will delete teams as needed. SE MO State is on the bubble. They were going 15+ points Under last night until a late 3 saved the day and put it in OT. That was more because of Lipscomb's slow pace though

Samford (and Son) :

2-0 Over, #221, #323, #21

Fast pace and indifferent to defense. Just how we like'm

8 teams = 21-1-2 Over, 3-1 Over for this thread.

Subtracted an Over because GW & Hampton played each other

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-10-20, 05:40 PM

Samford plays Georgia on Saturday. Thats one Over to hit the second you find it! I'm an IU grad and I know Crean. He'll let the big dogs run unless the other team slows it down. Their first 2 games went 16-17 points Over and of course Samford will run with them. I'm expecting 156 or something and its probably 90-76? Just a guess though on Saturdays line?

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-11-20, 03:21 PM

GW goes tonite but laying off because Delaware plays so slow. I am on Creighton/Nebraska Over 72 1H. Should be some offense in that one. I missed 151 this morning so took 1H instead when the game total went up.

Funny thing, a wealthy guy I met at the casino has me place bets for him when he's out of town. I put $500 of his money on the Caesars App and got a $500 match bet out of it!! I need to hit that shit bad!!! I've narrowed it down to Wake or Ball State in cfb or that Samford/Georgia cbb Over that I mentioned before. Hope they put up a total sometime tonite and I will probably pound anything in the 150s!

**doubledime** · 12-11-20, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

GW goes tonite but laying off because Delaware plays so slow. I am on Creighton/Nebraska Over 72 1H. Should be some offense in that one. I missed 151 this morning so took 1H instead when the game total went up.

Funny thing, a wealthy guy I met at the casino has me place bets for him when he's out of town. I put $500 of his money on the Caesars App and got a $500 match bet out of it!! I need to hit that shit bad!!! I've narrowed it down to Wake or Ball State in cfb or that Samford/Georgia cbb Over that I mentioned before. Hope they put up a total sometime tonite and I will probably pound anything in the 150s!

Is there any particular reason you play first half overs as opposed to the whole game overs?

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-11-20, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Is there any particular reason you play first half overs as opposed to the whole game overs?

Cashed Creighton/Nebraska 1H easy peasy $$

Good question DoubleD. Just a numbers game. 73 seemed easier to hit then 155 because I missed the 151 total I saw early this morning. Also in some of my totals losses the 1H was cruising along, but they dried up in the 2H. I think some of these teams just don't have much depth so they run out of gas 2H. For instance the Hampton game had 75 at half, but couldn't crack 143.5?

Damn. Rider was a dog this morning (+105?) and I made a note because Manhattan hadn't played a game yet, but I didn't pull the trigger. Rider is crushing them. Oh well

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-11-20, 09:32 PM

Didn't get a chance to post, but looking at Grand Canyon as an Under for this 10-pack. I put a little on Under 136.5 vs Nevada

Grand Canyon is #138 on defense and #304 on pace. They also haven't shot the 3 well to this point. See what happens? Its not looking too bad early? Also took Iowa Over 74.5 1H. They're a machine on offense. They feed Garza really well and have enough shooters & guard penetration to get (and make) open 3s!

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-11-20, 09:38 PM

GW went Under as I thought they might. Delaware's pace is too slow

8 pack 21-2-2 Over

3-1 Over this thread

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-11-20, 10:39 PM

$500 Match Bet on Georgia/Samford Over 158.5 tomorrow

Pretty stoked for this one tomorrow. Samford just put up 96 on Belmont's #120 defense. Georgia went 16-17 pts Over in their first 2 games. Georgia's #33 pace vs Samford's #22 pace!

I see something like Georgia 91-80

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-14-20, 12:12 PM

Lost my big match bet. Crean at Georgia? 24-10 Samford at the 8:30 mark 1H. Georgia came out sleepwalking and that got me. I was on Central Arkansas/Arkansas Over and won easy, but could only make one $500 play on the match bet((

Central Arkansas back at tonite. Got Over 150 last night and a little more at 152.5 this morning. Its 154.5 to 155 now

Going to blow this thread up when I have time and start over I think. Adding big schools too. Washington State is my Under team 5-0! If I saw that 151 total last night then I would've hammered it. 69-60 final. They suck! Their point guard is like 6'0 at best and just dribbles and dribbles and usually ends up trying to play hero ball (and failing) to beat the clock.