Untitled is gonna wire no matter what
but I need firm turf to bookend this
but I need firm turf to bookend this
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Yes we need wabasher to share moreComment -
Irad riding Saturday at gulf
hoe crazy is it , 99 horses nominated for 14 horse field at oak , in arky derbyComment -
Irad is back at GP, interesting. He owns down there. Probably until NYRA returns, right?
I saw that, that's nuts and a bunch from SA.Comment -
Gulfstream Thursday
Race 1
This field totes a combined 0-92 mark in this low level Maiden Claimer. Faceless race, leads to me suggest the #9 Princesa Crystal (4/1) , to set the early fractions. Meneses takes over for Hector, as he isn’t riding for one reason or another. #10 Laska (3/1) , is the logical top selection to stalk here and get the score. #7 Calentita (7/2) , is play against for me.
#10 Laska to win , but need that 3/1 for a wager.
Race 2
I don’t have many positives to say about this group.
Race 3
#1 Dotdotdash (4/1) , kept some strong company last spring in New York, something that these other haven’t came close to facing. Went to the bench for 10 months and switched surfaces for the return. Ran ok , as the number pretty much tops these. Cuts the tag if half, and should take a big step forward vs these in the 2nd off the layoff try. #3 Awesome Light (7/2) , has an impressive worktable for this debut and gets in light. #4 Princess Avril (6/1) , Speed and Fade type, improving and may like the lawn. #8 Sandbah (8/1) , 5 year old mare, is definitely bred for the green stuff, and the 2 morning moves on the turf , goes a half mile in 49 and 1, 48 and 1. wont have to be much vs these.
Could see an Exacta Box using the Top Choice #1 Dotdotdash, with the 2 firsters. Also #1 to win @ 3/1 or better
Race 4
#1 Samoa (6/1) , speed from the rail, with this excellent break rider. Cant not be ignored, zero chance you’re getting this price tho. #3 Stormy Boss (7/2) , Pilot upgrade after just missing last out. Just been burning money up by the fistful, Stretching out for the first time, not for me on top. #4 Time to Two Step (4/1) , Very consistent fily on the surface, trying winners for first time and clearly fits here. I like the ability this filly has shown to either be aggressive or rate. Walder/Vasquez do great work together, The Pick. #5 Country Strong (12/1) , 5 year old mare is 2nd of the 7 month layoff and the last 2 works are excellent. Positive sign they are stretching back out, and will be moving late. Win player, but must include underneath. Victor Barboza numbers off the claim are hard to dismiss, but #6 Paynter Fest (3/1) , just doesn’t excite me. Claimed for 12.5k kept in the stable for 2 months , run for a cheaper tag, and I don’t like the way Torres is riding at all lately. Play Against for me. #9 Looking for More (9/1) , is another that has to be used underneath.
#4 Time to Two Step to win @ 3/1 or better. I think its a good race for a Trifecta, Something like 4 w/ 1,5,9 w/ 1,3,5,6,9
Like this race quite a bit.
Race 5
Tough race to figure, one thing I’ll note, If you get Double digit odds on the #2 Eight Ain’t Enough (10/1) , I think its worth a shot to hit the board. But I don’t have any edge or opinion here.
Race 6
This is a paid workout for #2 Untitled (6/5) , Prob be 2/5 , as Casse waits for a chance to score more derby points. Mark told my buddy, he’s doing great after getting rest and that shows, peep the 5/8’s work in 59 and 3 on the 10th of april. Not much other speed signed on here, but it wouldn’t matter, this one is flat out quick, and Luis takes over as we haven’t found a steady rider for this colt. Jose got hurt after the swale or woulda rode in the Gotham. Happy with the selection here. Easy single to kick off the late pick 5.
Race 7
This field is loaded with speed. Im a big fan of #11 Dr. Edgar (5/2) , and of course I love the barn. Ran very strong in the G3 last out, and if it took too much out of him, Tagg would never flip this gelding in less than a month. Much needed Class Relief here, but man will dam sure have to work hard for the lead in this field. Im going to single on one my pick 5 tickets, but will have to spread on the main ticket because of that. #2 Tizzarunner (12/1) , Just wanna write a few lines because at first you look and say “ wow how did this new barn get a horse of this quality for only 16k.” It feels like a steal, but Obv something happened in the Maker barn as this 7 year old gelding was sidelined for 7 months and dumped. Add that to the fact , that Maker is one of the most difficult barns to claim from, and have success. Red Flags here. #5 Piven (15/1) , Has the right running style to make an impact vs this speed, Should be able pick up plenty of pieces late and maybe even pull the upset. #6 Gemonteer (7/2) , Gets much needed class relief off the freshening, is 7 3-2-0 on this course , 10 3-2-2 @ the distance, and 8 outta 13 in the money overall. Might Clash with Dr Edgar, tough horse to dismiss, but would have to be a monster to finish on top vs this speed. Think you reluctantly use on the horizontal ticket. #9 Grand Journey (6/1) , Just like Piven , has the right style be a big player in this field. Must include. #10 Big Agenda (15/1) , Makes a lot of sense for maybe 3rd place, but could include, as there is potential for total collapse. I wouldn’t wanna dismiss Maker / Saez on the #12 Morocco (9/2) Either. #1 Driven by Thunder (6/1) , Does have 10 lifetime wins in 31 races and 7 outta 14 here. But needs the lead to win and has to be sent from the fail, will be up against it.
I think Dr. Edgar will show that class and run a huge race , might be able to rate even vs these. So I’ll use him on one ticket but If he doesn’t win, I think the most likely winner is #9 Grand Journey , who I feel has a huge chance here
Race 8
#2 Money Never Sleeps (3/1) , Simple must use. Last time the #1 Addison (6/1) , went Turf to dirt , broke the maiden by 6+, hard connections are to ignore. #3 Leo’s Diamond (12/1) , Cant be left off, after that debut. #4 Topo Grigio (4/1) , will be over bet and I don’t think is the winner, but probably have to include. #5 Bird Map (7/2) ,
Bottom line im going all this race, just purchasing it.
Race 9
#1 Temple (3/1) , Should lay over these, Only one im using as a saver is #11 Arthur Kittening (9/2) ,
Race 10
#1 Bahama Kitten (12/1) , has been within 2 lengths in the last 5 vs slightly tougher. Landeros getting on , tells me its time get the first win of 2020. Silly line, but would love it. Has finished ahead of most of these already. Just needs to work a trip from the rail.
Worth the risk thinking this 6 year old mare is just a step above these. All the shorter priced M/l’s have finished behind top choice in the last. To me, this horse isn’t a lock by any means, but you either single or go crazy deep. No Thanks, cmon, Give us the trip Chris, close this Pick 5 out.
So I have very strong options on this late sequence,
I will definitely be playing a pick 5 several times.Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 04-20-20, 06:19 PM.Comment -
Only looked at a few races so far, but will add my thoughts over next few days as I cap more. I’ll try to look at horses LKid did not mention. His info is excellent and no sense repeating.
Race 1...#11 Pasatime 10-1, only turf try was last fall finishing 9th, but beaten only 5 lengths, so not a bad effort. Ran second when switched back to dirt and blinkers were added, but didn’t show much last out. A switch back to turf and stretching out after 2 sprints might make this one dangerous.
Race 3...AE #13 Borrowed Angel 8-1, takes a big drop, adds Lasix and blinkers. Dangerous if she draws in.Comment -
Love the team work and fresh eyes
especially yoursComment -
Guys I respect the great words
but if you strongly agree with a horse or horses I write on
please share
it will help me
tyComment -
Sure, I understand
but like to hear back up
thanksComment -
Great points on the AE,
I always recap the races if AE’s declared
because I cap days in advance , I look at it as it 2 pictures
It’s the only way I can get a clear cut of the pace
so instead of playing the guessing the game
I ignore at first ( for the most part)
then recap
also I make notes on certain speed horses that are entered
in case of scratch , recap the race ...
Grateful to have to you guys , makes me better
Im always looking for more communication as I’m not the best bettor
Posters / Friends / OTB guy’s , make more money than I do off my thoughts
So always trying to learn everydayComment -
tampa.. wednesday
R7 #3 land mark deal (12-1)
take a shot for the upset with a homebred firster by munnings whose one of the better first out sires and strictly speed.. first foal to race out of a winning giant's causeway mare.. lots of class but that's tempered a bit with the fact that gc is a distance influence.. gullick having a nice meet and has huge roi with maiden specials and debut horses.. call me nuts but I like positive names with debuters as I think it's a sign they really like the horseComment -
No worries
interesting selection
I think it’s top heavy chalkComment -
You can never learn enough in this game. There are just so many different things to look at and so many different ways to handicap races. I feel I’m a better handicapper than I am a bettor. No discipline more than anything. Which is why I mostly just post info on what I like and won’t really post a lot of plays. I miss Keeneland!!Comment -
Being from Louisville
I struggle with Kentucky racing
much better at keeneland , than Churchill
I enjoy Belmont and Saratoga the mostComment -
Race 2... #7 Sheknowsthedrill 4-1, looks like lone speed here and is cutting back a furlong after leading til mid stretch before giving way at 7 furlongs last time out. That was a key race that had produced 2 next out winners including LaViex, who won here last Friday at 43-1. #5 Water Wizard 3-1, came out of that same key race, where she ran 2nd, to run 2nd again and is a contender here. #6 Cabrina 5-2, owns the highest beyer figure in the field with a 4th place finish in her debut 2 weeks ago. With any improvement, she will be very tough here.Comment -
agree with you R3 #1 dotdotdash..on bris the number she ran losing by 7 lengths was only 1 point slower than par..so that race ,guessing 2-3 levels above, was a much faster bunch than she'll face today..coming off that long a layoff a great race to have in her..like that she was mid pack and even faded throughout that race..this goes along with it being a fast figure race..as you said the company she was going against as a young 2yo a different world from theseComment -
hey kid if he need me to look at any races with my thoughts on replays, i have some time on my hands ..plus it will give me a little motivation..Comment -
Race 4...#6 Paynter Fest 3-1, was claimed out of a sprint last time out by a trainer I’m not real familiar with but obviously knows how to spot them after a claim hitting 55% from 38 starts last 2 years. A repeat of that performance 2 back at this same mile distance puts her right in the mix. #4 Time to Two Step 4-1, been in the money all 4 starts on dirt and broke her maiden last time out on the stretch out to a mile. The one to beat. #3 Stormy Boss 7-2, stretches out to a mile after 8 sprints to start her career. She is the one to catch and could win this one with her best effort. #5 Country Strong 12-1, makes 2nd start off layoff and stretches out to a mile. Likes minor awards, use underneath. #9 Looking for More 6-1, gets back to her best distance after sprinting last out. Would need her best to contend.
Race 5...#8 Dermot 9-2, found himself on an easy lead last out from inside post, but don’t think this one does his best running on the lead. Breaking from outside with plenty of speed inside, expect this one to sit back and make a late run. Lightly raced. #5 Carbon Data 6-1, started career in Chad Brown barn where he won all 3 career starts, so has plenty of talent. Been away since last August, but now in the barn of Mary Eppler, who knows how to get them ready off long layoffs. Possible pace factor. #6 Willing to Speed 5-2, is very consistent and been knocking on the door in all 3 starts this year. Will be closing late and one to beat. #7 Valdolobo 7-2, ran big last out against $16K claimers, and now steps up in class after a 3 month layoff. Needs a repeat performance to contend here. Both #2 Eight Ain’t Enough 10-1 and #3 Tricky Magician 3-1 will be part of the pace, which I think will be quick and set up for one of the closers.Comment -
Washer ,
I’m surprised you like paytner fest in the 4th?
3/1 no way for me, I’d need 6/1
that’s the beauty of this game
Thanks so much for sharing
- side note I’m a big paytner sire fan
on the lone lead especiallyComment -
Like I said, not familiar with the trainer but as you said, his numbers are hard to dismiss. The horse had been running pretty steady since last July before the claim, so the 2 month freshening doesn’t concern me. Barboza has good numbers off layoffs too. 2 decent works recently. Not a strong play by any means but can’t dismiss in my opinion.Comment -
My complete gambling bankroll is 125k
without hurting my family
untitled , can’t lose
do I just bet the $125k on untitled?
how do I bet this sequence ?
I might do a $50 pick 5
i keep sharing , I’m gonna mess this upComment -
He's going to be 3-5. I don't know man. I agree with the pick of Untitled and will single him but the odds will be awful.Comment -
The challenge of betting the horses. Remembering that anything can happen in horse racing. A stumble at the start, or maybe even losing the jockey. If you’re trying to win $40K, do you risk $100K on a 2-5, or $10K on a 4-1? That’s one of the reasons I love this game.Comment -
Tampa r4
#4 Gesture to winComment -
Nice Call KidComment -
thomas has been hotComment
