TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
Kansas -7 over OKLAHOMA:WINNER (Added) The Sooners have had a nice 10-3 start to their year, but the fact still remains that this team was pick near the bottom of the Big 12 standings , while Kansas has been picked to challenge for a spot in the Final Four. Ken Pom has Kansas ranked 5th (23rd SOS), while he has the Sooners ranked 71st (208th SOS) Pretty big gaps there for just a 5 point spread. This is just the second true road game for Kansas and Oklahoma is 7-0 at home this year, but they really only beat 1 team of note at home and that was Arkansas. In their last 4 games Oklahoma beat 2 no lined teams, while losing on the road at a depleted Cincy squad and in their Big 12 opener the were crushed by Missouri by 36 points and Kansas is just as good as the Tigers. the Jayhawks had an embarrassing home loss to Davidson back in December, but since that loss they have reeled off 4 straight wins, which included a 16 point road win over USC and an 18 point home win over 15th ranked KSU. Kansas has also enjoyed good success in this series of late as they have taken the last 7 meetings with the last 6 being by at least 9 points. Kansas is clearly the better team and Oklahoma parlayed a soft schedule into their 10-3 start, but they are into the Big 12 portion of their schedule and they find out just how far they are away from competing with the Big Boys in the Conference.
4 UNIT PLAY
Nebraska/ Illinois Over 116 LOSER: (Added) Really hard to look at an Over with a team that's as bad on offense as the Huskers have been of late, but as you will see the overall numbers really do support this play. . Husker games have averaged 123.6 ppg overall, while their road games have put up 126 ppg. They have struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 45 ppg in their last 3, but their defense has not played all that well of late as they have allowed 68 ppg over their last 4 games. I really don't expect them to be held below 50 points in this one. The Huskers average 59.8 ppg on the road, while Illinois has allowed 70.3 ppg in their last 4 games overall and 57.2 ppg at home this year, so getting at least the 53 points that Vegas is expecting from them (Line is 10) should be rather easy. The Illini offense has sputtered some of late, but they still average 73 ppg at home, while Nebraska has allowed 66.2 ppg on the road and to middle that we would get 69.5 points form Illinois. The way that Nebraska has has played defense of late 69.5 points are certainly attainable by this Illini squad. In looking at the last 5 games for each team well also find that Nebraska games have averaged 117 ppg, while Illinois' last 5 have averaged 135.4 ppg. Neither team is great from beyond the Arc, but both teams do hit over 71% of their FT's and in a physical Big 10 game that should come into play. Vegas says 116 points, while I say around 125. KEY TREND--- ILLINOIS is 13-5 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette +11.5 over SYRACUSE: WINNER I have had the pulse of this Marquette team for much of the year (6-1 in their games) and I feel this is definitely a spot to back them again. The Golden Eagles are off a crushing come-from-ahead loss to the Hoyas the other night, but this team did show they can play with big boys as they had a big DD lead at times in that game. Marquette also has a nice win in Wisconsin and a 2 point neutral court win over Washington on their resume, plus they did win one of those early season tourneys, so this team does play well away from home. Today they will be taking on an undefeated Syracuse team that really has a bullseye on their backs and they truly do get everyone's best shot. The Orange has started off 3-0 in the Big East, but 2 of three wins were vs Providence and Depaul and now they really take a step up in competition. The Orange has crushed their opponents at home by an average of 25 ppg, but they have gone just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 their, with a couple of single digit wins vs Marshall and Florida thrown in there. This is the toughest team that Syracuse will have faced this year and according to KenPom they have played the 118th toughest schedule so far, while Marquette has dealt with the 70th. Last time out Marquette allowed GTown to shoot 76% in the second half and it cost them the game. This is a team that is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, so you can expect them to tighten the screws at that end of the floor. I expect their defense to keep them close in this one. Cuse win this one, but just by single digits.
5 POINT TEASER---Kansas PK & Georgetown +8 (Added) LOSER
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Florida Over 146: LOSER FLORIDA is 15-3 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons and 19-4 OVER after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
Missouri -1 over KANSAS STATE: LOSER (Added) MISSOURI is 46-26 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. KenPom has the Tigers at 7th, despite the 324th rated schedule, While KSU is 25 vs a much easier 142nd ranked SOS. Tigers stay undefeated.
1 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ West Virginia Over 131.5: WINNER W VIRGINIA is 12-4 OVER after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
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