CBB - Thursday, 12/18/14

[LT Profits]

1 CBB Play Thursday

Montana State +8 -109 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 63-47-3, +14.16

[LT Profits]

Well, I blew the line move on this one. +9, +9.5 now available.

[LT Profits]

Well, I blew the line move on this one. +9, +9.5 now available.

[aortega521]

Would you still take +9.5 and or even consider the wager at all

[CarterTown]

Thanks for the bet Dude, I'm rolling with you.+9.5

[aortega521]

LT here's where I struggle with maybe you can give me insight. I always respect your thread which is why im curious. I notice you start putting in your plays quite early in the morning. Is there a reason for that. For me I don't know why but I struggle the whole day capping reading and making my selection. I wait till the very last minute to put my wager in. If the game got postponed and started later I'd still wait. I would love the be able to have your approach on things and get the wager in early and have peace of mind and enjoy tracking or watching the outcome. Any suggestions?

[LT Profits]

Would you still take +9.5 and or even consider the wager at all

Yes I'd still take it, South Dakota is simply not good enough to be giving this many points to anybody. Note that I thought 8 points was too many.

[DOM_Toretto]

LT, I'm super hungover and my judgement may be skewed so I want some insight from ya on both Seton Hall and Virginia tonight to cover

[LT Profits]

LT here's where I struggle with maybe you can give me insight. I always respect your thread which is why im curious. I notice you start putting in your plays quite early in the morning. Is there a reason for that. For me I don't know why but I struggle the whole day capping reading and making my selection. I wait till the very last minute to put my wager in. If the game got postponed and started later I'd still wait. I would love the be able to have your approach on things and get the wager in early and have peace of mind and enjoy tracking or watching the outcome. Any suggestions?

My goal is to put in plays early that I think will move, this particular play was a bad guess on my part although I have no idea why South Dakota is getting so much support. Maybe people were impressed by the overtime loss to Creighton but the USD defense is too godawful to trust them as a favorite.

As for capping quicker, break down and pay the $20 for kenpom, I find the matchup pages invaluable.

[2daBank]

i grabbed mon st when it hit +10. you right that looks like far to many..

[LT Profits]

LT, I'm super hungover and my judgement may be skewed so I want some insight from ya on both Seton Hall and Virginia tonight to cover

I lean Seton Hall but I hate giving that many points on the road. Virginia is a solid team but they seem a tad overpriced at -17. Cleveland State might be able to hang with turnovers, Vikings are 16th in the country in defensive turnover percentage at 24.9% vs. national average of 20.1% and they are an impressive ninth in steal percentage.

[Brock Landers]

They don't call you LONG TERM Profits for nuthin pal

[2daBank]

I lean Seton Hall but I hate giving that many points on the road. Virginia is a solid team but they seem a tad overpriced at -17. Cleveland State might be able to hang with turnovers, Vikings are 16th in the country in defensive turnover percentage at 24.9% vs. national average of 20.1% and they are an impressive ninth in steal percentage.

17 a ton in what should be a very slow paced grind it out type affair.. id say cle st and the points or nothing..in the vcu gm there were stretches where i thought uva was a little sloppy with the rock so i def think cle st ability to create turnovers should help them keep this closer than the number..

[southmaniac6]

I think the total is too low on Virginia. People will look at cleveland state and louisville totaling 78 earlier but Virginia is scoring in the 70's lately. With a 17 point spread, surely Cleveland st can drop 50? I'm calling a 69-54 game which is over

[2daBank]

I think the total is too low on Virginia. People will look at cleveland state and louisville totaling 78 earlier but Virginia is scoring in the 70's lately. With a 17 point spread, surely Cleveland st can drop 50? I'm calling a 69-54 game which is over

i actually think it will be a real struggle to hit that number. lou plays with a little pace at least, granted their offense isnt as efficient as uva's but uva plays at a even slower tempo than cle st. i just dont see the number of possessions against 2 solid defenses being high enough to get over. i been wrong before tho..

[terrortwylight]

That Cleveland State total is wacky.. I do like them to hang around within 17 though.

[terrortwylight]

LT here's where I struggle with maybe you can give me insight. I always respect your thread which is why im curious. I notice you start putting in your plays quite early in the morning. Is there a reason for that. For me I don't know why but I struggle the whole day capping reading and making my selection. I wait till the very last minute to put my wager in. If the game got postponed and started later I'd still wait. I would love the be able to have your approach on things and get the wager in early and have peace of mind and enjoy tracking or watching the outcome. Any suggestions?

Seriously, do KenPom.com. He recommended the same thing to me and it was more than worth the $20.

[2daBank]

lt you think there any chance we get a line on the stony brook/canisius gm? really good spot for canisius if i could get a line..

[mahncpa]

As for capping quicker, break down and pay the $20 for kenpom, I find the matchup pages invaluable.

LT, I have kenpom, I am not sure what you are meaning when you say "matchup pages". Do you mean his
prediction of score? I am tailing you and you are doing well. Congrats.

[THam12]

LT, I have kenpom, I am not sure what you are meaning when you say "matchup pages". Do you mean his
prediction of score? I am tailing you and you are doing well. Congrats.

The pages where the two teams are compared offenese vs defense.

[LT Profits]

lt you think there any chance we get a line on the stony brook/canisius gm? really good spot for canisius if i could get a line..

Highly doubtful, usually the Extra Games are TV games only. Only one today is Mississippi vs. Coastal Carolina.

[LT Profits]

LT, I have kenpom, I am not sure what you are meaning when you say "matchup pages". Do you mean his
prediction of score? I am tailing you and you are doing well. Congrats.

As Tham said, click on the predicted score and the matchup page pops up.

[RestlessSpirit]

As Tham said, click on the predicted score and the matchup page pops up.

Hmm, for some reason under the fanmatch it does not allow me to click on the predicted score, it Just shows it. Is there possibly another page I am missing. Also I'm on a phone. You think that matters?

[terrortwylight]

LT, I have kenpom, I am not sure what you are meaning when you say "matchup pages". Do you mean his
prediction of score? I am tailing you and you are doing well. Congrats.

To get to the matchup page - you gotta start at FanMatch and then click the time of the game

[terrortwylight]

Hmm, for some reason under the fanmatch it does not allow me to click on the predicted score, it Just shows it. Is there possibly another page I am missing. Also I'm on a phone. You think that matters?

from FanMatch click on the time of the game

[LT Profits]

Hmm, for some reason under the fanmatch it does not allow me to click on the predicted score, it Just shows it. Is there possibly another page I am missing. Also I'm on a phone. You think that matters?

Start on Ratings Page. Click one of the teams involved. You should see projected scores for the rest of the season (updated daily). Click on tonight's score.

[RestlessSpirit]

from FanMatch click on the time of the game

Booya... Thank you sir. Very helpful tool

[LT Profits]

from FanMatch click on the time of the game

Wow, I never knew that. Gets you to the same place. I prefer to start with team pages as I described though.

[terrortwylight]

Wow, I never knew that. Gets you to the same place. I prefer to start with team pages as I described though.

Yeah I've been scouring this site since last week. I'm obsessed.

[mahncpa]

Thanks for the Kenpom tips. What do you guys look at the most under the matchup? Overall offense/ defense or do
you look more at the predicted score. I look at the score, but it is usually right on what the oddsmakers have.

[irishstuey]

Thinking about getting kenpom to help with my picks. My question is...how useful is it with (from what I hear on here) books using it to set lines? or is this just a myth?

[Brooklyn Dick]

Anyone betting CBB that does not pay $20 for Kenpom is making a huge mistake.

[lonegambler]

lt line is up to 10 1/2 now u think it's,still good pick

[aortega521]

Good informative thread fellas good advice this should be the purpose of sbr. To help make everyone $$$

[terrortwylight]

Thanks for the Kenpom tips. What do you guys look at the most under the matchup? Overall offense/ defense or do
you look more at the predicted score. I look at the score, but it is usually right on what the oddsmakers have.

I am personally of the opinion that oddsmakers are adjusting around KenPom, not the other way around.