CBB - Thursday, 12/18/14

[terrortwylight]

Good informative thread fellas good advice this should be the purpose of sbr. To help make everyone $$$

Exactly. That idea I think is lost on people a lot of times around here. To some, it's more important to call some dude you'll never meet in PA a brokedikk than it is to get better at gambling

[LT Profits]

Thinking about getting kenpom to help with my picks. My question is...how useful is it with (from what I hear on here) books using it to set lines? or is this just a myth?

Right, that is why I did not simply suggest comparing his scores to the lines as that stopped working years ago. But it is useful for the advanced stats on the matchups not available on other sites.

[raydog]

I am personally of the opinion that oddsmakers are adjusting around KenPom, not the other way around.

before i post, i will say that pomeroys site can be very useful for people who cap a certain way and for people who need to fill fairly basic voids in statistical models... imo, if you arent using some of the stats to fill model info, you are just using their stats to reinforce your guess on a game... if that works for you, the site is well worth the 20bucks

that being said, the main originators (cris/pinny/greek...err maybe 5d at times) arent paying much/if any attention to the lines pomeroy is producing...they have their own, more extensive models with more info that they trust... pomeroy has gone on record as saying he wouldnt be a winning gambler if he bet games where his lines where 3-4-5pts off the main originators openers... and those books arent going to rely on anyone who has the potential to produce anything that far off from them

if you are a serious gambler, you should be spending the money and buying sportsoptions/donbest lines service , rather than utilize another site that just leaves you making guesses...

[Brooklyn Dick]

Take 5Dimes for an example of lines. You will NEVER see 5Dimes put up a line on anything FIRST. I mean before any other major books are up. He will use DB and just open the line the way he sees it. He may shade something a half pt.. But Tony is no linesmaker. Cris has Jack making lines. They will gamble and open up first a lot.

Bottom line: The vast majority of books are Don Best Followers. Sure when they get hit they move the line, but otherwise they are full of shit.

[LT Profits]

1 CBB Addiition (Big Game!)

2 CBB Plays Thursday

Connecticut +10 -105 (Heritage)
Montana State +8 -109 (5 Dimes)

[raydog]

Take 5Dimes for an example of lines. You will NEVER see 5Dimes put up a line on anything FIRST. I mean before any other major books are up. He will use DB and just open the line the way he sees it. He may shade something a half pt.. But Tony is no linesmaker. Cris has Jack making lines. They will gamble and open up first a lot.

Bottom line: The vast majority of books are Don Best Followers. Sure when they get hit they move the line, but otherwise they are full of shit.

not that its rocket science and actually many linesmen have done it for so long that they can pull the #s off the top of their head, but many times throughout the night, 5dimes will be the first to hang a 2h hoops line.

other than that, i agree...cris and greek originate the main u.s markets and others, besides pinny, just follow them around like puppy dogs

[terrortwylight]

before i post, i will say that pomeroys site can be very useful for people who cap a certain way and for people who need to fill fairly basic voids in statistical models... imo, if you arent using some of the stats to fill model info, you are just using their stats to reinforce your guess on a game... if that works for you, the site is well worth the 20bucks

that being said, the main originators (cris/pinny/greek...err maybe 5d at times) arent paying much/if any attention to the lines pomeroy is producing...they have their own, more extensive models with more info that they trust... pomeroy has gone on record as saying he wouldnt be a winning gambler if he bet games where his lines where 3-4-5pts off the main originators openers... and those books arent going to rely on anyone who has the potential to produce anything that far off from them

if you are a serious gambler, you should be spending the money and buying sportsoptions/donbest lines service , rather than utilize another site that just leaves you making guesses...

point taken. guess that's why I work for a living and gamble for fun, not the other way around.

[CarterTown]

LT great work tonight Man. Got conn at +10.5. Montana analysis was spot on.

[raydog]

yup... good work, lt.. had a good chance to win su