St. Johns has been on fire lately. They are at this point undoubtedly a better team than Butler and should win. Most teams that are 9+ point favorites are usually at that point flat out better teams than their opponents, but is it really worth laying 450, 550, 790, 1000+ to make a hundo? Things happen, good teams play poor games, and bad teams get hot sometimes. I'm all for investing a unit or two on a minor favorite, and certainly on an underdog...even taking a shot for a hundo to win up to 1000 sometimes on a longshot. But I've never felt comfortable wagering anywhere near a rack to bring back 10%. I wouldn't be able to stomach the fact that I lost 1000 in an effort to make 100. So where does everyone draw their line on a ML favorite? And does anyone have any solid stats to back up ROI on such large wagers that bring back those minimal (but sometimes necessary and useful) gains? Look forward to the responses...GL to all
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I think they are ok if they are home teams and put them in a 2-3 team parlay. Gets payout down closer to even moneyComment -
I understand it with the parlays, but even then they can be deceptive. I'm more referring to just straight wagers tho. I don't think the ML's are laid out there for the intention of the bettor to group them together into parlays to make their payouts closer to even, and while I'm going there, I don't think they are there to be advantageous to the bettor at any sort to boot (then again, what is supposed to be advantageous to a bettor? nothing!)
Kinda surprised I get no love for responses on a solid topic...yet again, the few times that I have tried to engage in worthy conversation on here, I have gotten limited feedback. So surprised wasn't the proper term. I guess I gotta get my secret club membership card in the mail still..."Clam Chowder"..Comment -
i always make a nice 100-200 bucks cuz of them i took kentucky ml kansas ml *close call* and duke ml
threw a G at it, it stuck.Comment -
Exclusive ML player for years...what stats do you want? Here are this year's stats from Jan 1 up through most of tonight's games. Results are only based lined games. The odds are the closing odds:
All ML Home Favorites: 72.8% straight winners (870-325)
All ML Road Favorites: 70.1% straight winners (317-135)
All ML Home Favorites lined -400 or higher straight winners: 89.1% (417-51)
All ML Road Favorites lined -400 or higher straight winners: 83.3% (75-15)
All ML Home Favorites lined -1000 to -10000 straight winners: 95.2% (160-8)
All ML Home Favorites lined -400 to -1000 straight winners: 85.7% (257-43)
All ML Home Favorites lined -100 to - 400 straight winners: 62.3% (453-274)
Yeah, it is a very solid bet. Stick to the home teams, be consistent, and try to avoid the occasional loss.
My motto: Big Bucks, No Whammies!Comment -
Thanks for the solid feedback. I'm gonna start giving this a look, and monitor myself to find where my best options lie. Still don't know if I have the guts (well actually the bank) to risk big bucks on minimum returns, but gathering info at this point is just as valuable. Good looks on the stats...where are these from?Comment -
ML are the way to go IMO... Ive created a nice profitable system using them! the trick as with anything is to be very selective and consistent in what ever approach you use to select games. I personally do not play games over -500 and i try to limit myself to 1 play a day but it is hard as hell lol. I do not like to parlay but i do some form of chasing on certain bets.Comment -
sent you a pmComment -
I agree with this method...if you lose 1 in the parlay, not a huge hit against you, and if you win, then you make a nice little profit.
I don't recommend ever playing a ML between -600 and up because you will feel miserable if you lose...if you win, you will feel ok. From what I've experienced, the feeling of losing a lot is SO MUCH greater than winning a little IMO.
If you just keep playing these ML favorites with such juice, you will see your bankroll dip down fast if luck is not on your side.Comment -
Problem is - like you said - it's hard to pick those ML games at -6 to -8 range, with a good possibility of an upset.
I have one tonight (Dayton -8) that is getting me worried - not that I don't think they win SU, but it's in that range I mentioned where I have seen quite a few upsets...you kind of have to factor in the mindset of the hometeam - is it a spot for a letdown vs. a mediocre/bad team? How important is a win for that team in the grand scheme of things?Comment -
One question fartoogone. Are your lines based on opening lines or closing lines? I've seen -450 go to like -350 with major reverse line movement by close so I was just wondering what your lines are based on.Comment -
Holy shit mybad man I can't believe I missed that. Sorry! How much have you made since jan 1Comment -
If I were to make a ML parlay, IF that is, these would be my team selections. Syr/Morehead/Florida/Xav/Indiana St/smu/kan st/Dayton/Arkansas/Oregon. I don't feel comfortable with Ohio st at the moment because of that losing streak they were on, but that can change. I don't make ML's all the time, but the odd time. I've hit a few and lost more than enough by 1 game. And I have today's written down in a scrape book. If I made a ML parlay yesterday I would've won Louisville/st johns/Wyoming/san diego st, but I chose point spread. Risk, chance, and hope.Comment -
First I will apologize for my lengthy reply, but I was inspired to see a thread dedicated to money lines. I have tracked money lines in college football, college basketball, nfl football, and nba basketball since 2007. My criteria is the games have to be at least -500. There are on average between 1300-1400 occurrences of these type games every year across these four sports. They on average win about 90% of the time! but it's the 10% losers that really hurt your bankroll. Without a doubt the safest place for money line wagering is college football. The riskiest is NBA. College basketball has the most plays. The NFL typically has one maybe two games a week. The mechanics of how you score in football is much different than basketball. A hot three point shooter in hoop can score 12 points in 90 seconds, thus allowing more upsets to happen. In football there are games where two teams could play 100 times and the stronger team would never lose to the weaker team......especially in college football. But in basketball there are games where two teams could play 100 times and the weaker team could win 5 times out of 100 games. In basketball, fouls can put great players on the bench and out of the game. In football the great players stay on the field even when penalties are called on them. Over four quarters in a college football game, the stronger and more talented team has a significant advantage and seldom loses.
My data does lead one to speculate about certain conferences and certain teams. The SEC in college football has had some big upsets with big money lines. One year Arkansas lost as a minus 8000 favorite. One year in college hoop, Iona lost two games as minus 2000 favorites. So as a bettor you have to isolate games where you know you have a physical edge and one team will dominate the other. Motivation is huge factor in sports. You have to include motivation in your handicapping. This us why the NBA is so dangerous. NBA players and teams take nights off. Stay away from the NBA. I have spent many hours on my stats. I am convinced that you can be very profitable betting money lines. You just have to be right when you make a play and you only gave to win the game by one point.
I believe it was Carl Icahn who stepped to the window in Vegas and proclaimed there was no way New England could lose to the Rams one year in the NFL. He bet 3.6 million on the money line on the Patriots and lost. In professional sports, there are players on every team and on any given week one team can beat another. I paid to watch the Houston Texans get their asses kicked by the Jacksonville Jaguars this past NFL season. Houston was a 10 point favorite and list outright at home. I paid to watch Oklahoma beat Alabama in the their bowl game this year. Totally underestimated Oklahoma and Alabamas motivation. When you loose it hurts, so it teaches you to be patient and wait for the perfect opportunity. And when the right situation comes along and you know you have a winner, you can fire with confidence.
If anyone wants to discuss further, feel free to PM me. Money line wagering is profitable, but most don't have the bankroll nor the patience to play the game.Comment -
Shortly after I posted, Boston College upsets Syracuse. BC hit 10 three pointers.Comment -
Simple answer no.Comment -
Great insight Tired Pro. Can I ask if you use these plays as open parlays for 3-4 games to get the payout loser to even? Also, do you have a max in terms of odds? Finally , what book do you use that offers these money lines?Comment -
Everyone is listing % of which -odds hit but fail to explain to the public what % you must also win to make a profit. Taking a -1000 line 8 times all in(rough math) will end up doubling your money.. but there is a reason they are -1000 and not -10000.Comment -
Wow...thanks for all the great responses! Really appreciate people with positive feedback, especially on an topic of great relevance and not just your ol "hey who do you think is gonna win" type of post! I don't believe in piggybacking peoples picks, but I'm all ears in listening to informative methods to adapt my wagering style to. I'm an avid bettor, or '"selector", but Im a student who is still learning and figure I'll be learning for years to come. I love to learn, and this shit is my passion. Its a challenge to me...that just so happens to incorporate my favorite hobby! Well, that and playing poker...another challenge! Once again gentlemen, thanks for the responses, and keep the convo going...by all means...GL in the upcoming games...Comment -
This is why people don't understand ML betting. If you bet -1000 and win...you walk away with 1100. That is 10% profit! Who is trying to "double their money"?? This is a long term, managed risk approach like the stock market. Their might be wild swings day to day...but over the long term...it pays. I am going for a reasonable 18-20% ROI with a big bank roll to make it worthwhile.Comment -
A little different then how you guys are doing it, but I am in a situation where I would like to turn to these big ML favorites. Below is an open parlay that I started tonight, which is off to a great start. I really want to add Michigan St ML tomorrow at Purdue, as I truly believe they recover from Sunday's hangover vs Nebraska. They are opening around -4.5, and I expect this to rise to about -6 tomorrow, meaning probably about -275 or so on the ML. That said, any advice as to how to keep this thing going? I calculated that if the majority of my remaining picks are in the -700 to -1000 range, I can win around 5K, which I could really, really use.
1 2/19/14 6:55pm $75.00 $655.87 Open 15 Team Parlay Win 2/19/14 10:30pm College Basketball 779 UCLA +115* vs California 2/19/14 6:56pm Win 2/19/14 7:00pm College Basketball 723 St. Joseph's -200* vs Rhode Island 2/19/14 8:46pm Win 2/19/14 9:00pm College Basketball 772 Miami Florida -150* vs Notre Dame 2/19/14 11:07pm Win 2/19/14 11:00pm College Basketball 781 New Mexico -123* vs UNLV Comment -
Or at this point, do I need to be talked off Michigan St altogether? Crazy things can and will happen in the Big 10.......for example, Nebraska downing Michigan St in Lansing just 3 days ago!Comment -
Risk/reward relationship is in the book's favor bigtime in heavy chalk. Say you bet $1500 last night on Syracuse to win $100. You lost your $1500. If you continue to play such chalk, you have to make the same type of wager 15 more times and win EVERY TIME, risking $22,500 over 15 different games, each with it's own unique outcome to BREAK EVEN. And if you lose even one of those 15---you get the point. Terrible investment. It is all about the break even point in sports betting, odds are best for the punter betting ATS and trying to find lines that are off. If you want a 10-20% roi, there are many many better things to choose that laying heavy chalk. How have you been bettin ML's "for years" and don't already know this? The data you posted previously is no good beause the win rates you posted were for ranges of ML odds so there is no way to figure the break even point.Comment -
Let me just make a few more comments and they will probably address your questions.......You have to have a bankroll, be disciplined, not be an action junkie, and have an exit strategy to play money lines. It's not for everyone and nothing is. I personally am not comfortable to deposit a significant bankroll in an offshore book......that's just me. Vegas is where you should be to have the most options. Many books in Vegas do not offer money lines on games where the betting line is high and I would discourage you from playing games where the money lines are really rich. Was there a chance last night that Syracuse could lose to Boston College ?? Absolutely. Syracuse many times throughout the season lacks motivation. They cannot be trusted and truthfully cannot be trusted at home. It's a reflection of their coach. He loafs through games. I read where John Calipari has only lost 3 games at home since he began coaching Kentucky. You can say what you want about Calipari, but he stays after his players. Money Line plays are about winning games period......finding situations where one team is superior to the other, is motivated, plays the entire game, and will dominate their opponent. I like to focus on games where the money line is -500 to -2000. If you have a bankroll that is big enough to accommodate your tolerance of risk, this will allow you to play with confidence and not panic when you lose a game. As I stated earlier, college football creates the best situations for money line wagering. The game of football is much different than basketball......referees can influence the outcome of a basketball game much more than football by putting star players on the bench with fouls. I have played some money line parlays, but it's not part of my strategy. Check out thread by Vegasreaper.....its dedicated to money line parlays.Comment -
Not here to take over a thread, but many of us are here to continually improve our skills and make more money.......I've been watching the results of a number of games where a team is a road favorite in the 5-10 point range and the money line is typically -180 to minus -300. My data shows these teams win a lot of games......may not cover, but win a lot of games. I think home court advantage may be over rated for many teams and when a superior team travels on the road and plays against an inferior opponent there is a distinct advantage for the stronger team. I am only observing and tracking these plays at this time. I'm not comfortable playing money lines in college hoop, but I'm trying to find possible situations where opportunities present themselves. I've been around sports wagering for many years......you can't convince me there is much difference between Wall Street and Las Vegas except the zip code.......go back and watch the interview with Billy Walters on 60 Minutes......Vegas may actually be more honest.......except for those damn referees.Comment -
Simple assumption you make is wrong....I don't play exclusive ML parlay bets over -1000....I play them from -300 or so up to -1200. My hit rate is 86%. The ML odds I posted are accurate.....this system isn't for everyone. I win over the long run....not only can I say this....I could (if needed) prove it.Comment
